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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

Ether_Snake

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IMMR up 5%. Shit company anyway, I don't recommend, and very volatile:p

CRDN up another 4%.
 

kathode

Member
Going for a 100% gain on my NFLX calls :D

Want to buy more SDVI too. They're preparing to uplist. They filed some forms preliminary to that and the stock shot up 300% (note that that's from .003 to .009 :lol I am still way underwater on this one).
 

Ether_Snake

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STP rallied in the afternoon, up 5%. Finally. I own only 35 shares but my target is anywhere between 10 and 20$ a share.
 

kathode

Member
RSTEIN said:
Nope! I sold for a $5,000 loss but repurchased later month puts.

Damn you are not an AMGN fan :lol

My Netflix calls got within 10 cents of a 100% gain. The stock was up over 8% today. We'll see how it does tomorrow. Will probably go ahead and dump it tomorrow regardless since I own a few hundred shares of the stock anyway.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
kathode said:
Damn you are not an AMGN fan :lol

:D Honestly, it has nothing to do with the company. I'm not saying it has shady accounting, etc. This is a trading call. Year-to-date, AMGN is my only loss. That's fine. Losses are a part of trading. They're not something to be feared or be embarassed about. We're dealing with probabilities, estimated values, and forecasted outcomes. None of these can ever be right, only precisely wrong. The focus is on the overall outcome. 90% of options traders lose money. I make money 90% of the time ;)
 

Branskins

Member
For anyone that wants to join a virtual stock market, go to www.updown.com and sign up. Or pm your email and I can invite you.

I created a NeoGAF group and will create a contest once we have enough people!
 

Ether_Snake

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ERTS missed targets, posts smaller loss. Down in AH. Could give me the time I needed to buy soon, in the 45 range. I think they have a decent portfolio shaping up, altho putting good products on shelves doesn't mean they can stop bleeding money elsewhere. Seems like a potentially good time to buy, soon.
 

Ether_Snake

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ERTS down 8%.

Tomorrow is ATVID earnings:D

CGT up 5% on no news.
 

hermeez

Member
Anyone mind giving a newbie some advice?

I bought WFC in the middle of July when it fell to the low 20s (bought at 22.70) and now it is up to about 30-something... should I be selling now, taking the ~35% profit, and hoping that it falls back down to re-buy later? My initial plan was to invest in a few well known, big companies and hold the stock for a while, but I did not anticipate this quick jump (mostly due to their earnings, I assume). I don't think the housing mess is over and their all time high is around 38, so would it be a good time to put in a sell order and create a new buy order for a really low price and hope it goes through sometime in mid-August? Any guidance would be appreciated!
 

kathode

Member
hermeez said:
Anyone mind giving a newbie some advice?

I bought WFC in the middle of July when it fell to the low 20s (bought at 22.70) and now it is up to about 30-something... should I be selling now, taking the ~35% profit, and hoping that it falls back down to re-buy later? My initial plan was to invest in a few well known, big companies and hold the stock for a while, but I did not anticipate this quick jump (mostly due to their earnings, I assume). I don't think the housing mess is over and their all time high is around 38, so would it be a good time to put in a sell order and create a new buy order for a really low price and hope it goes through sometime in mid-August? Any guidance would be appreciated!

Basically depends on how much of a trader you want to be. If you sell now, you're looking at the gain being taxed as income. So whatever your income is, you basically just add this into it and it gets taxed like anything else. If you hold it for a year, you pay capital gains tax instead, which is 15% if I remember right. So probably significantly lower than your income tax %. So you just have to weigh your gains and potential tax bill right now vs. where you think the stock will be in a year's time and your potential tax bill then. Those are really the only factors unless that stock pays a dividend, which can help weight things a bit in the "hold" direction.
 

hermeez

Member
kathode said:
Basically depends on how much of a trader you want to be. If you sell now, you're looking at the gain being taxed as income. So whatever your income is, you basically just add this into it and it gets taxed like anything else. If you hold it for a year, you pay capital gains tax instead, which is 15% if I remember right. So probably significantly lower than your income tax %. So you just have to weigh your gains and potential tax bill right now vs. where you think the stock will be in a year's time and your potential tax bill then. Those are really the only factors unless that stock pays a dividend, which can help weight things a bit in the "hold" direction.

kathode, thanks for the explanation! I guess I should probably stick to my original plan and hold for a year or two with all the stocks I bought. I never realized how stressful/addicting checking the stock prices could be until I bought some myself!

I am concerned because such a huge jump rarely happens with a big company (I think Wells Fargo jumped like 30% in a day earlier this month, right after earnings), so I didn't know if that was a sign to get out while you can and take the profit. I also picked up WM at around 4 *shudder* which jumps and drops 20% daily like it is nothing. That was more of a risky play, so I didn't put as much into it. I have missed out on a chance to cash out with a huge return, buy back in two days later, and cash out again two or three times now, so I think that is also contributing to some of my concern over "lost profits", if you will. Thanks again, I have enjoyed following this thread.
 

kathode

Member
RSTEIN said:
HOLY SHIT! AMGN IS ACTUALLY DOWN TODAY!

IT'S A MIRACLE!

And it ends positive :) But only barely.

Missed my chance to double my money on NFLX by not checking in before I left to work. My calls peaked at 2.75 but were down to 2.50 by the time I checked in on my work PC (2.70 is double for me). Doh! There was a bunch of profit taking today obviously so it was down a bit. My calls are in the money though so I'm going to hold on for another couple days.
 

Ether_Snake

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RIO was up 8% today.

Anyway I'm really tempted by ERTS. I think it can go back to 55 within a year, could be sooner. The thing is, it's obvious that EA is heading in a better direction, but its performance is less accepted by the market because you have competitors that are doing extremely well (Activision, Ubisoft, etc.), so EA can't put the blame on the industry or their position, only directly on themselves. It's a good wake up call, but I'm wondering if even games like Mirror's Edge, Dead Space and Battlefield Heroes are going to help them at all. EA is huge, those games have potential, but unless EA is keeping dev costs very low I don't see those titles being major money makers, especially Mirror's Edge which may be hot but I think people understand how short the game will be so sales might reach only a niche market. Dead Space is sci-fi horror, so it has a very small casual gamers reach. Battlefield Heroes could be the next TF2, but I'm not sure if EA will be making a lot of money through it. Spore is of course their best card.

Ubisoft is expensive, I have 15 days left to decide if I buy the shares at 15% discount or not. Other than that I'm looking at BA, BP, and CM.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
kathode said:
And it ends positive :) But only barely.

:lol I was this close to getting hit today. A huge trade went through in the afternoon that was way below market and sent the shares down 1.50%+. Then the stock slowly recovered.

I sold all my CVX (Chevron) calls yesterday after making 15%... missed today's 5% move (which translated into a ~40% move in the calls). D'oh!
 

Ether_Snake

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FSLR up 6.84% in AH after earnings report (on top of today's 2.68%). Could be nice for solars tomorrow. STP up 3.20% in AH. Lots of other solar stocks up in AH.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080730/firstsolar_results.html?.v=1
Solar cell maker First Solar Inc (NasdaqGS:FSLR - News) reported a 57 percent increase in quarterly profit on Wednesday, blowing past Wall Street estimates as higher-than-expected production from a new plant in Malaysia helped it meet surging demand.

EDIT: Oh shit I was forgetting about WFR. They dropped to some tempting price. Makes my choices harder.

Tomorrow ATVID earnings!

EDIT2: NTDOY tanked 5% today, didn't see that.

EDIT3: Holy shit, THQI down 10.59% in AH, on top of today's -2.19%. Not surprised tho, but I remember them trading in the mid 20s a few months ago. Plus, I don't even see them as having much potential for being bought out, they'll go the way of Midway IMO, always lower.
 

kathode

Member
Ether_Snake said:
EDIT2: NTDOY tanked 5% today, didn't see that.

EDIT3: Holy shit, THQI down 10.59% in AH, on top of today's -2.19%. Not surprised tho, but I remember them trading in the mid 20s a few months ago. Plus, I don't even see them as having much potential for being bought out, they'll go the way of Midway IMO, always lower.

Yup, NTDOY is the same story as always - major profits, cautious outlook, everyone bails. Glad I sold out of there a while back.

Futures solidly down today. Probably going to be a three-digit loss session. Volatility is apparently the name of the game these days.

lol, awesome headline on CNN.com - "Exxon Mobil made nearly $1,500 per second"
 

Ether_Snake

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Ubisoft down 5% today, for whatever reason.

Not a nice day on my end, ADSK down 4% on no news.

Anyway we all realize we keeping heading lower and lower right? I want a turn around, I want to see the dow back at 13000.
 

kathode

Member
Ether_Snake said:
Anyway we all realize we keeping heading lower and lower right? I want a turn around, I want to see the dow back at 13000.

Well we haven't seen sub 11k levels for a couple weeks now. Since July 15th we've been averaging positive (obviously a very short term view of course). It's just a lot of volatility depending on whatever economic indicator that comes out that day that people choose to put faith into. I think everyone can agree that 13k would be lovely, but I don't think it will happen without a significant retreat of oil prices down to the sub-$110 levels or so.

Sold out of NFLX for a 75% gain. Way too early. Could've made around 120% if I waited, or more. But who knew it was going to shoot up today? Ah well, profit is profit.
 

Tarazet

Member
dionysus said:
I've made 30% in 3 days on ABK. What should I do? I have a huge tolerance for risk. I am thinking I ride to 0 or 10x returns.

Generally you should never sell a stock that's on an up trend, unless news comes out that would reverse the trend.
 

Ether_Snake

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IMMR and ATVID in a few mins!

EDIT: IMMR released its earnings, nothing good, no surprise:p
 
ok i know that many of you have waaaaaaaaaaaay more knowledge about the market than i do so i need some serious help. I'm thinking about going pretty much all in on Wamu. I've been picking up shares from $12 downward and i now have 1400 with less than a 2% loss overall. I sold everything else i had with the exception of 75 shares of visa that i've had since ipo.

I'm soooooooo thinking about going all in on WM. should i do it? is it wise? As a joe blow the way i see it is hey they have billions in reserves and have been around years. that ALL i know and is why i'm in. from the more knowledgable end, whats it look like? jump in or just hold where i am? thanks!
 

Tarazet

Member
MobiusPigeon said:
ok i know that many of you have waaaaaaaaaaaay more knowledge about the market than i do so i need some serious help. I'm thinking about going pretty much all in on Wamu. I've been picking up shares from $12 downward and i now have 1400 with less than a 2% loss overall. I sold everything else i had with the exception of 75 shares of visa that i've had since ipo.

I'm soooooooo thinking about going all in on WM. should i do it? is it wise? As a joe blow the way i see it is hey they have billions in reserves and have been around years. that ALL i know and is why i'm in. from the more knowledgable end, whats it look like? jump in or just hold where i am? thanks!

WaMu will come back, but wait for it - and the rest of the market - to start coming back before you put any more money in it.
 
sonarrat said:
WaMu will come back, but wait for it - and the rest of the market - to start coming back before you put any more money in it.
thanks! my thing tho is the price is so low now! i cant see it dropping much more. buy low sell high! some investment fund revealed their stake today and i see that as a nice anchor.
 

Ether_Snake

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ATVID down in AH but that's nothing new, ATVI is always down after good results;)
 

Tarazet

Member
MobiusPigeon said:
thanks! my thing tho is the price is so low now! i cant see it dropping much more. buy low sell high! some investment fund revealed their stake today and i see that as a nice anchor.

The bulls are saying the crisis is over. They are probably wrong, because the housing market is declining faster than ever in high-value areas like San Francisco and New York City where there is a lot of money to go around.
 

dionysus

Yaldog
sonarrat said:
The bulls are saying the crisis is over. They are probably wrong, because the housing market is declining faster than ever in high-value areas like San Francisco and New York City where there is a lot of money to go around.

Calling a bottom will be difficult, but the market traditionally moves upwards 6 months before a bottom. So keep that in mind.
 
i just placed the order. out of V, all in on WM for a total of 2400 shares. :lol if any news pops up before i go to bed around 3am i can always cancel but i dont think i will. if they reach their old highs again i'll make 100k. OMG
 

dionysus

Yaldog
MobiusPigeon said:
i just placed the order. out of V, all in on WM for a total of 2400 shares. :lol if any news pops up before i go to bed around 3am i can always cancel but i dont think i will. if they reach their old highs again i'll make 100k. OMG

As long as you realize that there is a good chance of going to zero and that the trade is based on turnaround speculation.

But hey, I am a turnaround speculator myself so I am cheering you on!
 

Ether_Snake

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IMMR down 9% in AH, not surprised.

ERTS at 43.

Infogrammes up 25.61%

I was fucking right but never bought any. They can turn this thing around, and I trust Phil Harrison being there. Let's see how they play their cards now.

Midway could do nicely after MK VS DC. THQ on the other hand I don't see them turning around soon. They need more focus.
 

Tarazet

Member
I'm investing in TMRFX (Third Millenium Russia). The fund has an unbelievable record, 32% average annual gain over the past ten years and still on the rise though extremely volatile. It makes sense - they have an absolutely huge amount of oil and coal, and they can get it to China very cheaply. They're putting a lot of money into new infrastructure. I think this will be an awesome long-term investment.
 

Ether_Snake

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sonarrat said:
I'm investing in TMRFX (Third Millenium Russia). The fund has an unbelievable record, 32% average annual gain over the past ten years and still on the rise though extremely volatile. It makes sense - they have an absolutely huge amount of oil and coal, and they can get it to China very cheaply. They're putting a lot of money into new infrastructure. I think this will be an awesome long-term investment.

Nice, sounds good.
 

Ether_Snake

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ADSK up 5.65%, I don't see any news tho.

BA at 61 is tempting, they often resisted at the 60 mark.
 

kathode

Member
RSTEIN, let me know next time you buy more AMGN puts because I want to buy some calls at the same time :lol

I bought some MMM calls. Down a bit but coming back!
 

Ether_Snake

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Ubisoft up 4.5% today.

Oil down. Come on, I want to see at least 12 000!
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
kathode said:
RSTEIN, let me know next time you buy more AMGN puts because I want to buy some calls at the same time :lol

I bought some MMM calls. Down a bit but coming back!

HEY I'M MAKING MONEY TODAY!
 
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