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[Ovid]

Google doesn't provide guidance for the next quarter, right?

No, they don't

 

[ArtG]

No, they don't

Suppose that's a good and bad thing. Good for you, because you probably got a very nice quick profit on these great earnings numbers. Bad for market transparency for seeing where we are in Q4 and beyond.

 

[Ovid]

I wasn't watching GOOG all day. I am so pissed that I didn't buy at $309. That price was at around 11am this morning. That was their 52 week low.

 

[Tarazet]

Of course I bailed on KLAC at the bottom.. it won't matter in a month anyway.

 

[mollipen]

I wonder if I'm going to regret not picking up the addition AAPL that I wanted today when it was in the mid-90s.

 

[gkryhewy]

GOOG dropping a bit - now up ~6% after hours.

 

[jamesinclair]

So my simulation account suggests that risky October options are full of win

2008/10/18 Put on HARTFORD FNCL SVCS GROUP at $30.00 50 $1.65 $2.30 $11,500.00 39.39 % $3,250.00

Almost 40%!

Too bad its fake money

 

[Zyzyxxz]

So my simulation account suggests that risky October options are full of win

2008/10/18 Put on HARTFORD FNCL SVCS GROUP at $30.00 50 $1.65 $2.30 $11,500.00 39.39 % $3,250.00

Almost 40%!

Too bad its fake money

Yea I take part in those sims too but you prob wouldn't act the same IRL as in the sims

 

[jamesinclair]

Yea I take part in those sims too but you prob wouldn't act the same IRL as in the sims

Well yeah, Im not ready for any form of option trading, but after seeing people in this thread talking about how risky October options were, I decided to test it out.

 

[Tarazet]

Well yeah, Im not ready for any form of option trading, but after seeing people in this thread talking about how risky October options were, I decided to test it out.

Out of the money October options are going to be worth zero at the end of the day tomorrow. That means if you have a call on a stock with a strike price of $25 and the stock closes at $20, or even $25, then that option is worth absolutely nothing. It won't be exercised and will expire worthless, and your money vanishes into the ether. In the money options will still be marketable, but they'll trade at par value - meaning if the strike price of the call is $25 and the stock is trading at $27, then the option is worth $2 (times 100 shares).

 

[syllogism]

More bad housing data (slowest pace since early 1991 recession), looks like another -500 day

 

[Deku Tree]

More bad housing data (slowest pace since early 1991 recession), looks like another -500 day

But Buffet is buying...

 

[ArtG]

But Buffet is buying...

Buying on the dips is the right thing to do here. If we are down 500 points, trying to get in somewhere at those levels will probably yield some nice returns.

 

[Deku Tree]

Buying on the dips is the right thing to do here. If we are down 500 points, trying to get in somewhere at those levels will probably yield some nice returns.

The S&P 500 at it's peak in Oct. 2007 was basically a mere 30 points better than at it's peak in April 2000. Over that 7 year period, the broad market index made you a 30 point income.

Of course the DOW is a different story, but it still makes me wonder if Templeton was right when he said in 2003 that 'the stock market is broken'.

 

[ArtG]

The S&P 500 at it's peak in Oct. 2007 was basically a mere 30 points better than at it's peak in April 2000. Over that 7 year period, the broad market index made you a 30 point income.

Of course the DOW is a different story, but it still makes me wonder if Templeton was right when he said in 2003 that 'the stock market is broken'.

In April of 2000 we were trading in crazy land, (in the midst of the dot com bubble) so I'm not sure it's completely fair to make the comparison without making that note.

 

[ArtG]

Wonder if this rally will be sustained and even pushed higher in the last hour of trading. I'm starting to want to bail out of my November MO calls, though, since I'm up fairly well at this point. Don't want to get greedy...

 

[mollipen]

Obviously nobody knows the future, especially in our current situation, but for those of you folks who follow Apple, do you think their earnings report next week is going to knock the stock down or see it rise?

 

[ArtG]

Obviously nobody knows the future, especially in our current situation, but for those of you folks who follow Apple, do you think their earnings report next week is going to knock the stock down or see it rise?

Completely depends on what guidance they give moving forward. Given the climate, I can't imagine their guidance will be raised. (Especially since they're technology.)

Then again, Apple isn't that unreasonably priced (about a 20 multiple) given their growth rates.

 

[RumblingRosco]

I thank Buffet for singlehandedly keeping the market up today despite more housing woes. We'll see if it lasts till closing bell, though.

 

[ArtG]

Think I got a little too greedy today. Should have sold my MO calls at a nice profit. However, I'm sure they'll reach today's level (and probably go beyond it) before November 21st, so I'm not too worried about not pulling the trigger.

 

[rvd2kewl]

Obviously nobody knows the future, especially in our current situation, but for those of you folks who follow Apple, do you think their earnings report next week is going to knock the stock down or see it rise?

I expect Apple to hit a home run with their earnings, but they typically issue low guidance and that kills the stock in the after-hours. Last time they brought the stock down too because when asked about Steve Jobs' health in the conference call Apple said "Steve's health is a private matter." The stock sank from $166 to $148 that night and that's where it opened the next morning. But the next morning everyone got back on board and carried it from $148 to $160 (looked to be a case of the big boys knocking it down to get themselves a better entry point).

I'd expect something similar to happen this time around, but you never know with the market these days.

 

[RumblingRosco]

One thing that inspires me to keep buying is this chart:

(courtesy of stockcharts.com!)

Even at the worst point in that chart, around 1930, the markets recovered to that level by 1956. For someone my age, even if something that bad hit right now (meaning I bought at the absolute peak of prices, which we're well below now), I'd theoretically break even by the time I'm in my mid 50's, well before retirement, and that doesn't include any dividends I'd be pulling in over that 26 year period. Of course, I'd need to avoid companies that completely fail and go under during that period, but with smart purchases it could be avoided.

Of course, I'm not sure anyone believes that the markets will crash as bad as during the 1930's, I don't personally believe that anyway.

Summary: I'm buying because it will pay off.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I'm back!

I got banned for saying "ICO 3!!! " in a FFXIII thread. I always get banned because of the gaming side.

Anyway here's what I did this week: increased my stake in CGT on Tuesday, I'm now at 1020 shares. I did so after seeing the "CAE establishes Southeast Asia operations in Singapore to expand military business" news, because I've always had confidence in this company and I'm seeing strong management and this reinforces it. Earnings are in mid november, and I'm VERY long term on this business but I'm hoping earnings will allow it to rise or at least remain stronger during difficult times.

Friday was a bit crazy, I placed a couple of bids and canceled them for another 45 shares of STP, eventually decided to look at ABX again (which I sold at 40 last week, I really bought at a bottom and sold at a peak on this one), but then later in the day decided to buy STP instead. I'm now at 90 shares on that one.

BHI is hurting me like a bitch, might have to buy some more at these low levels soon, but I'm starting to run out of money to invest. HON is also down but I'm not feeling an urge to buy more right now.

I might have to sell ATVI soon, I'm up $1100 on a $2500 investment on this one, but at the same time I want to hold onto it a bit longer, I think the good NDP results really brought confidence to the gaming sector and we can see that in how ERTS and ATVI traded on Friday. At the same time, I have a lot more confidence in EA now after seeing how good Dead Space's reception has been. The game gets a lot of views on Gametrailers.com so I feel it might actually sell well on top of being actually good. Not sure how Mirror's Edge will do, and Spore was definitly a big disappointment, no SIMs there. But I think EA is better managed now than it was over the past four years.

There are so many stocks I want to get into right now, I just don't have the money I might invest in ETFs instead. I'm looking at IYM (iShares Dow Jones US Basic Materials) or UYM (Ultra Basic Materials ProShares) because I think Basic Materials, while definitly under pressure, are getting low enough IMO, unless things got REALLY worst than expected. WFR is interesting as well, been looking a this one for a year, never bought any, but the ratios are good. It's just that I've been trying to stay away from tech stocks.

BTW I am done with my past project at work and am now going on a project that will give me more job stability because if any project was to be canceled this wouldn't be one of them. Sadly pay raises are coming only in April, which really sucks but I'll have a good evaluation from my last project under the belt so I'm gonna aim for a significant pay raise, and I'm gonna try to bring about more valuing of talented employees over company-wide pay raises by mailing the right people on the subject. Right now employees that have nowhere to go because they suck are getting paid the same as me while talented employees not getting decent salaries leave for higher paying companies. Shit has to stop.

EDIT: BTW I'm looking at getting a Zecco account cause I'M SICK OF GETTING ROB OF 29$ ON EVERY TRANSACTION THROUGH RBC!!! (edit2: DAMN, can't open a Zecco account in Canada)

Oh and I got two weeks of vacations now, so I'm going to try and figure out how to cut my expenses, make meals instead of wasting close to 10$ a day on lunches, etc. I'm going into savings mode now! Not a fun way to spend my vacations but to me it's a time to turn things around, make smart choices, while not bothered by work. I need money to invest at these times. Food is my biggest waste of cash.

 

[Ovid]

Great to hear from u again Ether_Snake. Is there any reason why CGT declined over the past month (besides the huge sell off in the markets)?

 

[Ether_Snake]

Great to hear from u again Ether_Snake. Is there any reason why CGT declined over the past month (besides the huge sell off in the markets)?

Well #1 it was the overall markets, not CGT themselves. People must have assumed a slower economy would lead to a lessened demand for pilots for example, less air travel, etc. We'll see how the earnings go. It's sad because they are such a good company IMO, dedicated management that are obviously doing what they can to establish long term strategies based on relying less on the US as they did in the past, and doing more business in Asia, yet the stock has been hit over the last year because of the economy. The first shares I bought were at $13 to give you an idea, that's why I have been buying again on drops. Plus I don't believe CGT has really strong competition, so I believe it makes them attractive to a potential buyout eventually, but who knows by who?

But like I said I look at it as my longest-term investment, followed by BHI and HON.

I'd like to get back in ADSK also. Should have never sold that one, it was an accident on a day I got rid of loser stocks I had (IMMR and NVDA). When I'll have the money I'll probably hop back in, maybe ADBE as well.

I have to figure a way out to make money on the side. I need extra income at such a time so I can invest more. If the world economy goes caput, too bad, I don't have much to lose

There's a website that allows people to sell pictures online, such as for example you make a picture of a slot machine and put it up and you can sell it for X amount of money. I remember someone I used to go to school with made some nice income by doing pictures in demand, especially casino-related art. I'm a good illustrator/CG artist so I could do that on the side.

 

[kathode]

Think I got a little too greedy today. Should have sold my MO calls at a nice profit. However, I'm sure they'll reach today's level (and probably go beyond it) before November 21st, so I'm not too worried about not pulling the trigger.

Be very careful with this. Remember that a large part of the valuation of your options contract is time value, which is slowly and silently decaying every day. The further you hold, the higher the underlying stock's price has to get to make up the difference and get you into positive territory. If you have significant time value decay, this has to be recouped when it goes in the money. Depending on the price of your option that could be a significant amount.

A few days hold is certainly fine of course, but I just mention it as I got bit in the ass on this point by ERTS a few weeks back, where I held an option that was clearly doomed for weeks too long. It was a December call with a $50 strike price, and I just kept thinking "there's plenty of time left." By the time I actually looked it up, time decay had eaten away so much of my value that it was clear that the stock would have to hit $55 just for me to break even. If it looks hopeless, a small loss now is better than a big loss later.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Anyone knows another site like Zecco, but for Canada, where I can pay a very small fee per transaction instead of this robbery of $29 through RBC? Deadling through my bank allows me to make the stock purchases using the money from my bank account directly, and send the money into my bank account directly when I sell, but paying $29 a transaction forces me to aim to make bigger returns. Pain in the ass, sometimes I hold back on selling.

 

[dionysus]

My roommate uses charles swabb. 12.95 a trade and it opens a bank account at the same time. Not sure all the details but it might fit your criteria if you looking for a bank/trading platform combo

 

[Ether_Snake]

So what is everyone's plans for this week?

Me, I'm trying to get a $2000 back from a friend I lend it to. Never doing this again. I'll be looking at potentially selling ATVI but only if I'm short on cash and feel like really really buying something else. I don't really like the idea of selling it tho. The only thing is that I feel like EA might be getting back on their feet, but they still have a lot of weight on their shoulders so it might not be enough to hold back ATVI. I need to see what ATVI has in store outside of Blizzard, GH, and CoD. They got Bizarre Creations so for sure something racing-related is coming but that's not gonna be their next CoD or GH. Blizzard is going to provide them with good money makers but they need to add to this, EA won't sit around, they'll eventually pull off something right. Rockband is their GH, Dead Space is their Bioshock, and Mirror's Edge is in some way their Assassin's Creed. They can keep that copy-quality trend going.

Anyway like I said I don't want to sell ATVI, but will if I really need some money.

Other than that, my priority would be to add to BHI to make up for its recent drop.

And my #1 priority? Find a low-commission alternative to RBC! Isn't there something more like Zecco for Canada? 12.95 is better than 29 for sure, anyone knows anything else?

 

[ArtG]

Be very careful with this. Remember that a large part of the valuation of your options contract is time value, which is slowly and silently decaying every day. The further you hold, the higher the underlying stock's price has to get to make up the difference and get you into positive territory. If you have significant time value decay, this has to be recouped when it goes in the money. Depending on the price of your option that could be a significant amount.

A few days hold is certainly fine of course, but I just mention it as I got bit in the ass on this point by ERTS a few weeks back, where I held an option that was clearly doomed for weeks too long. It was a December call with a $50 strike price, and I just kept thinking "there's plenty of time left." By the time I actually looked it up, time decay had eaten away so much of my value that it was clear that the stock would have to hit $55 just for me to break even. If it looks hopeless, a small loss now is better than a big loss later.

Yeah. I don't think I'm in too bad of a position though--the call is a $20 strike for November, which I bought at $.86. It's up to $1, so I'm still in the green as of now. The stock is currently trading at $19.32. Just disappointed that I didn't get out when the stock was trading at about $20.15-$20.20. I didn't want to miss out on a late-day rally (which I thought was coming and it did not...)

Will probably quickly cash out of that position the minute it reaches those levels in the (hopefully) near future.

Thanks for the advice.

 

[ArtG]

So what is everyone's plans for this week?

Depends on how the market open looks tomorrow. If there's weakness in the open, (-150 to -200 points...) I'm probably going to snap up some November call options on discount. (Looking at KO, MSFT, WMT and a few others)

 

[RumblingRosco]

So what is everyone's plans for this week?

I am weathering the earning's storm.

Tues - MMM
Wed - MCD, WB, PAS, MRK
Thurs - F, MHS, MO

Just going to see how things do. Hoping for some good news from MO and MMM, expecting some shit from F and PAS.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Daaaaaamn, BHI and HON have fallen more than I thought they had. I hate this market, and worst is we may head lower still. If I had more funds on my hands it wouldn't be a big deal, I'd just buy more on dips. Right now I feel forced to buy on dips, and I can't add to all of my holdings.

ConocoPhillips reports earnings on Wednesday.

 

[kathode]

Futures are solidly up. Dow is up around 130 but down from the high of around 180 about half an hour ago.

Bernake speaks to Congress at 10AM, and American Express is probably the biggest earnings report coming after close today. Also Haliburton, Lockheed, and Netflix report today.

 

[dionysus]

This week I am sitting still. 120% invested anyway so it is not like I have any cash to pursue opportunities anyway. Current holdings are GE, HOV, ACGY, GS, C, CIB, and ABK. Yea, Cramer and any reasonable financial planner would shoot me on the "am I diversified" section of his show. But this account is purely speculative.

HOV might be up on the chopping block, I was going to sell on any bump last week, but the improving credit markets make me a little more hopeful for this leveraged home builder.

The big stocks on my watchlist are HIG, MET, ERTS, TTWO, RIG, HLX, PCZ, and DIG.

 

[Ether_Snake]

HAL and WFT are up thanks to earnings, so BHI went up too. I don't have money to buy BHI now anyway, won't have it until the end of the week at the earliest.

Other than that, even tho I'd like to buy some other stocks, I don't think I'll do anything this week. I don't see ATVI rising enough for a sell this week anyway.

Ubisoft is holding steady at around 40 euros. I wonder how well Far Cry 2 will do, and i presume Brothers in Arms sales have been so-so considering the lack of interest in the game.

 

[dionysus]

My cube neighbor is the daughter of BHI CEO. She is beautiful.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Haha cool.

Gold companies are up on possible further "stimulus" plans.

I wonder what kind of impact the potential OPEC production cuts will have.

Buying UYM would have resulted in a nice 11% rise today (well, if I bought last Friday).

HON is down due to earnings last week:|

 

[Tarazet]

Doing a straddle on C at a $15 strike (1:1 call to put ratio). One way or another, it's going to be a wild ride.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Looks like we got some confidence.

 

[RumblingRosco]

Looks like we got some confidence.

A relatively steady day so far compared to the previous weeks. This is what I want to see, more days with between ~2% gains or ~2% losses. Fuck that 4% and greater swing shit.

 

[dionysus]

A relatively steady day so far compared to the previous weeks. This is what I want to see, more days with between ~2% gains or ~2% losses. Fuck that 4% and greater swing shit.

Haha, but VIX is still in the 60s. I won't say normal till it is in the 20s.

 

[Tarazet]

The LIBOR rate is down below 2%. There should be a huge rally happening right now.

 

[Ether_Snake]

ABX up 7%.

Tried to buy some last Friday. Decided to add to STP. D'oh.

Oil up too, on OPEC planned cuts.

 

[ArtG]

Sold out of my MO November call @ $1.20... $.22 less than when I could have gotten out on Friday. (Though the stock price is at the same price as it was Friday)

Time value of money is a bitch. :lol

Could have rode it higher, but I set that limit price in between classes and it hit it. At the end of the day, it was a positive trade, so that's the important thing.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Imagine if it wasn't fr the Iraq war how much more margin the US would have in softening the current economic blow. I wonder how much bigger the deficit will get by the end of 2009.

 

[dionysus]

Imagine if it wasn't fr the Iraq war how much more margin the US would have in softening the current economic blow. I wonder how much bigger the deficit will get by the end of 2009.

Why do people act like the Iraq war is the only thing the government spends money on? We give more money to rich farming corporations for free than we spend in Iraq. Our budget deficits aren't the product of the Iraq war, our budget deficits are the product of an orgy of government spending by both parties. Our deficits are much larger than the total cost of Iraq.

Anyway, I probably shouldn't even have replied as this is a stock thread.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Well it's a spending that results in no return, and long-term losses.

You know after WWII we loaded ships to the brim with brand new tanks straight out of the factories, drove the ships two miles off the port, and dumped all the tanks in the water? The costs of the war have major implications on the economy, for years to come.

You don't fight an unneeded war, it weakens you on a national security level, and then you can't respond properly to help the economy when it weakens.

 

[Xisiqomelir]

You know after WWII we loaded ships to the brim with brand new tanks straight out of the factories, drove the ships two miles off the port, and dumped all the tanks in the water?

Please let me read about this.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Please let me read about this.

PMed you

And hey, nice rally today, almost everything I'm looking at right now is green

ABX up 10%, argh! Should have bought that instead of adding to STP.

I guess it's another 400+ day Soka!