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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

ArtG

Member
I like the rally we had, but I'm worried that it might have gone up too far, too fast and we'll see some weakness tomorrow.

Here's to hoping I'm wrong about that, though.
 

Ether_Snake

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It will probably depend on what happens overseas until tomorrow. I think the upward trend will continue for now, this is becoming a time of action on the part of the governments. It's what happens after that will determine if we really go up from here or not. And if we do go up, it will be at a slow pace most likely.

BTW American Express had good earnings.
 

Zyzyxxz

Member
anybody buying into financials?

My mother wants me to buy about 20K in financials for her portfolio (AIG, FRE, FNM, BAC, DSL, ect)

They have all seemed to hit rock bottom especially FRE and FNM since they are both hanging around a dollar.

I've been looking over BAC and it seems really lucrative for the longterm
 

dionysus

Yaldog
Why does she want to buy financials that have been nationalized? She already owns them as a taxpayer.

Definitely don't buy AIG, Fannie, or Freddie unless you are making a day trade instead of a long term investment.

Edit. I'd look at GS, C, JPM, BAC, and some life insurers like HIG or MET.
 

Ether_Snake

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Anyone investing in financials right now is a short-term trader. That's poor use of money coming from a mom! She should be looking into investing that money for long term in more solid companies outside the financial sector, and add on future drops if necessary, and think long term.

People invest in the stock markets like it's a casino. Only research and information can help you make a good pic, not looking at a chart and thinking "wow, it used to be so high, now it's so low, that means it will raise again later, buy now!".
 

dionysus

Yaldog
I disagree. As long as you do appropriate research, nothing is a straight up gamble. Every investment is a risk reward proposition. I have made investments that I think have a greater than 50% chance of losing me 50% but the upside is huge. ABK is one of these. Then again, I have also made investments that I think have a downside of 5% and a upside of 10%.

Your right about looking at historical stock prices only, you might as well put your money on black at the roulette table.
 

Tarazet

Member
ArtG said:
Those that use Zecco:

How long does it take for sales to show up in your account as cash?

Depends on how long you've held the stocks; it can be as little as a day or as much as a week. They will tell you if you call them and ask what the settlement schedule is.
 

Ether_Snake

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Nikkei doing well tonight.

Oil probably going to reach 80 by the Wednesday or Thursday.
 

dionysus

Yaldog
I think we see oil at $50 in 2009 once we see how the decrease in credit affects consumption in developing markets. Also, natural gas is becoming a more global commodity, biting into oil's traditional consumers. I am still a bull on oil though really long term.
 

Tarazet

Member
My goal for the next couple of weeks is to buy a call on a company trading below book value, with the intention of exercising it. Wish me luck!
 

Ether_Snake

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Everything down in my portfolio except STP. Earnings for STP are on Nov 20.

I doubt oil would go down at 50 without being followed by some big time production cuts from OPEC. How significantly can they cut down on production without affecting the economy seriously negatively?

sonarrat: good luck! and you stole that guy's avatar? :lol
 

Tarazet

Member
I am nothing if not opportunistic! Anyway, I wound up buying a $7.50 November option on NETC for practically nothing. I'll see how that plays out.
 

Ether_Snake

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Wow oil down at 68, oh well I guess we're going down before going up:p

BHI earnings tomorrow, will probably be down after the release, so it's alright that I am waiting before adding to it.
 

Ether_Snake

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Well I did make money this year, made 60% on TTWO (1500) and 74% on ABX (1000). Lost some money on IMMR and NVDA, but I forget how much, something like 2500.

Oh and that reminds me I have to figure how to access my 401k online, it's at a different bank and I want to specifically chose what to put the contributions into. Right now it's a mess and I don't even remember what my money is going in. I have barely contributed to it so far tho, so now is a good time to review this.

My goal is to make enough money to buy a house and pay it as quickly as imaginably possible.

I need my big raise in April:| At least I'm working on a great project now which offers me major job stability until its release:)
 

ArtG

Member
Hopefully we'll see a late day rally. Getting hurt on my PM and CSCO calls. Though, I got in at fairly good prices, so even at these current levels, my losses are limited as of now.
 

Ether_Snake

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Interesting article on option-ARMs http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...aiting-to-strike.aspx?source=ihpdspmra0000001

The Next Housing Catastrophe Waiting to Strike


Lower interest rates may have helped ease the pain inflicted on subprime borrowers with their adjusted reset rates, but option-ARM borrowers are in for a much bigger surprise because their mortgage rates don't just reset, they recast. This means that borrowers will have to start making full payments on the loan according to a 30-year-amortized schedule. In effect, Fitch Ratings expects the average monthly payment to jump 63%. Given that many borrowers are already defaulting on marginal increases in the minimum payments due, it seems likely the recasting will be catastrophic to most of these borrowers.

I don't understand all of it but on the surface it makes sense.

One person replied:

Maybe the author should actually read the articles posted on this site about this exact topic. The FDIC is completely aware of this problem and will handle it the same way they handled the bad ARM loans at Indy Mac.

The director of the FDIC lobbied successfully to have the ability to restructured bad ARM loans as part of the banking bailout.

This is more just doom and gloom from someone that probably has her hand in the short players till.

EDIT: Hmm, STP up 2% on no news, other than having announced earnings on nov 20.
 

dionysus

Yaldog
No worries, in California, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida they can just sell the house for a profit when the mortgage adjusts. It's all risk free.
 

Ether_Snake

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dionysus said:
No worries, in California, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida they can just sell the house for a profit when the mortgage adjusts. It's all risk free.

But that's if there's a market for said house no?:p
 

Tarazet

Member
dionysus said:
No worries, in California, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida they can just sell the house for a profit when the mortgage adjusts. It's all risk free.

Real estate only goes up! California is the promised land! Homes for everybody!

I'm starting to see houses on the San Francisco peninsula around $200,000, and in certain neighborhoods of SF, even lower. That would have been unthinkable a year ago. Even the shoddiest crapshacks were four hundred large.
 

eznark

Banned
ArtG said:
Hopefully we'll see a late day rally. Getting hurt on my PM and CSCO calls. Though, I got in at fairly good prices, so even at these current levels, my losses are limited as of now.

When does Yahoo announce their earnings? I was hoping for a bounce from their overachievement
 

dionysus

Yaldog
sonarrat said:
Real estate only goes up! California is the promised land! Homes for everybody!

I'm starting to see houses on the San Francisco peninsula around $200,000, and in certain neighborhoods of SF, even lower. That would have been unthinkable a year ago. Even the shoddiest crapshacks were four hundred large.

There is a decent chance I am moving to the greater San Francisco area and San Ramon for work in 2009. That is good news to hear.
 
sonarrat said:
Real estate only goes up! California is the promised land! Homes for everybody!

I'm starting to see houses on the San Francisco peninsula around $200,000, and in certain neighborhoods of SF, even lower. That would have been unthinkable a year ago. Even the shoddiest crapshacks were four hundred large.

I've been wondering how long the housing market will stay a buyer's market. I'm likely to be buying my own house in about 3 years, and hoping it all stays low until then. Three years is of course a long while away, so who knows, but here's to hoping.
 

Tarazet

Member
Soka said:
I've been wondering how long the housing market will stay a buyer's market. I'm likely to be buying my own house in about 3 years, and hoping it all stays low until then. Three years is of course a long while away, so who knows, but here's to hoping.

Housing markets don't tend to recover quickly. You're not likely to see anything like the rabid overbidding of 2005 and 2006 by the time you're ready to buy.
 

eznark

Banned
sonarrat said:
Housing markets don't tend to recover quickly. You're not likely to see anything like the rabid overbidding of 2005 and 2006 by the time you're ready to buy.

I'm much more interested to see what mortgages look like in 3 years. I think that will have as large an influence on the long term housing market as anything else. I don't doubt the government is going to make purchasing a home quite the cumbersome process in the coming years.
 

Tarazet

Member
eznark said:
I'm much more interested to see what mortgages look like in 3 years. I think that will have as large an influence on the long term housing market as anything else. I don't doubt the government is going to make purchasing a home quite the cumbersome process in the coming years.

Well, I know that the higher-rate FHA loans are going to require 3.5% after Jan 1st (they require 3% now), and lower-rate Fannie/Freddie loans will require about 5% but with PMI until you hit 10% equity, which is a big problem as mortgage insurance is almost impossible to come by.
 

eznark

Banned
That 3.5% upfront is god damn crazy. My buddy just got a FHA with, I believe, 2 points up front.

God damn it poor people, stick to rentals, FHA is just stealing your money.
 
sonarrat said:
Housing markets don't tend to recover quickly. You're not likely to see anything like the rabid overbidding of 2005 and 2006 by the time you're ready to buy.

That's some good news. I need to find a place online to look at housing prices historically. I know locally that the average price of a home in Honolulu dropped from around $650,000 to $550,000 in just the last 12 months. I imagine housing prices on a small island will be much different from the mainland, though, since space is limited out here like no other.
 

eznark

Banned
Soka said:
That's some good news. I need to find a place online to look at housing prices historically. I know locally that the average price of a home in Honolulu dropped from around $650,000 to $550,000 in just the last 12 months. I imagine housing prices on a small island will be much different from the mainland, though, since space is limited out here like no other.

Depends. If we do get hit with a recession inflation will murder Hawaii (and the demand). If you have the means you can probably scoop up some cheap HI property in tough economic times.
 

gkryhewy

Member
eznark said:
That 3.5% upfront is god damn crazy. My buddy just got a FHA with, I believe, 2 points up front.

God damn it poor people, stick to rentals, FHA is just stealing your money.

I believe the FHA 3.5% refers to the minimum down payment. Not exactly crazy :lol
 

Ether_Snake

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Nice rally from BHI right now, +3%. I hope I can add to it later before it rises too much.
 

ArtG

Member
Well, the market sure did sink fast. (Though, by the time I post it, it'll probably be right back up. :lol )

Hopefully Apple/Yahoo numbers don't disappoint.
 

lil smoke

Banned
Soka said:
That's some good news. I need to find a place online to look at housing prices historically. I know locally that the average price of a home in Honolulu dropped from around $650,000 to $550,000 in just the last 12 months. I imagine housing prices on a small island will be much different from the mainland, though, since space is limited out here like no other.
You live in Hawaii? (EDIT: oh ok re-read your post...)

Wow. I envy you. I have a dream to take a one way flight there with no bags and see how I do. Surprised at those housing figures! Those are nearly NY numbers.

...

Nothing to talk about here regarding stocks. I need to recoup losses before I can invest in anything new, and it's looking like I won't see anything meaningful this year... too far in red. :( Man I'd be better off buying some tax lien homes at this rate.
 
lil smoke said:
You live in Hawaii? (EDIT: oh ok re-read your post...)

Wow. I envy you. I have a dream to take a one way flight there with no bags and see how I do. Surprised at those housing figures! Those are nearly NY numbers.

...

Nothing to talk about here regarding stocks. I need to recoup losses before I can invest in anything new, and it's looking like I won't see anything meaningful this year... too far in red. :( Man I'd be better off buying some tax lien homes at this rate.

I'm actually out here for this semester of school as an exchange student from Illinois. Pretty sweet deal, well worth it. Makes me want to live out here permanently though, but it's expensive as all hell. Still, fun to look at the housing market and such, and since I'm majoring in nutrition, my job would be one that wouldn't be totally fucked when tourism takes a hit during recessions.

Mixed day for me right now, with a bit more down than up. MMM had some decent earnings though, which is what really saved the day. I think I am going to really enjoy this purchase in the long term.
 

Ether_Snake

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I don't think Yahoo's earnings will be good, but whether the shares go up or down who knows.
 

lil smoke

Banned
Soka said:
I'm actually out here for this semester of school as an exchange student from Illinois. Pretty sweet deal, well worth it. Makes me want to live out here permanently though, but it's expensive as all hell. Still, fun to look at the housing market and such, and since I'm majoring in nutrition, my job would be one that wouldn't be totally fucked when tourism takes a hit during recessions.

Mixed day for me right now, with a bit more down than up. MMM had some decent earnings though, which is what really saved the day. I think I am going to really enjoy this purchase in the long term.
COOL.

How do the locals treat you out there? I hear they might be a little apprehensive towards mainlanders...?

(... erasing all my other questions, this isn't a HI thread!)
 

ArtG

Member
Ether_Snake said:
I don't think Yahoo's earnings will be good, but whether the shares go up or down who knows.

Well good on a relative basis. I'm pretty sure estimates are pretty low for them--so if they miss those even low estimates that were set...Yikes.

If both Yahoo and Apple disappoint...tech might get slaughtered tomorrow.
 

Ether_Snake

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Ya I don't know, I think Apple wouldn't be in a good position right now either. But yeah what it means for the shares is up in the air, it's all about at least meeting or surpassing analysts estimates.

EDIT: Only BHI and STP closed in the green for me today. And I just noticed ATVI and ERTS both erased most of yesterday's respective gains.
 

Ether_Snake

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AAPL and YHOO up, especially YHOO.

I'm surprised by the iPhone sales. I wonder if sales will tank in the next quarter. If not, what crisis?:p
 

ArtG

Member
Ether_Snake said:
AAPL and YHOO up, especially YHOO.

I'm surprised by the iPhone sales. I wonder if sales will tank in the next quarter. If not, what crisis?:p

I'm a little surprised that AAPL is up after the earnings report. Their most recent quarterly numbers were great, but their guidance was shitty as all hell.
 
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