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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!
- Thread starter koam
- Start date
ArtG said:
On the other hand, a 3% swing is kinda mild compared to recent movements :lol . We seem to have settled into a near-term swing around 9,000 - if it stabilizes there, I'm okay with that, and may dip into some diversified mutual funds or S&P SPDRs for the long run back up.
Right now I'm not buying anything - just trying to avoid selling in the short term.
gkrykewy said:
:lol
True enough. I'm especially pissed about PM's treatment today. The quarterly numbers were great: They beat estimates by 4 cents a share (89 consensus, 93 actual)...20% growth, and held guidance, which was raised earlier in the year. They raised the dividend.
I'm not sure what more investors would want to hear.
dionysus said:
Yeah, you're right. But I got in these options at such crazy low levels, the stock market is so volatile and that I still have more than a month on the options (which, in this market, appears to be 10 years worth of movement :lol ) has me frazzled, but I'm still confident that we'll see the market come to its senses...
Or just have a crazy panic rush to the upside. Either one is fine by me at this point.
gkrykewy said:
About 40%. I'm not highly invested, though, but it still hurts. (Nov PM and CSCO options...$50 and $19 calls respectively.)
The good thing is that I've got some money in at the lows of the session today, which lowered my average cost on options I bought around the 9000 range.
Ether_Snake
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lil smoke said:
If you think gold will go up or interest rates will be cut it could be a winner. But right now oil and gold is falling big time. I got lucky on that one, bought at a bottom (luckily) because there was a rumor of interest rates cuts, turns out there was none, but gold went up anyway for the following weeks and I managed to sell at $0.50 from the highest. Just luck really.
BHI missed earnings estimates, down 15%. Like I said I've been wanting to buy more and they are close to last Friday's price so I'll buy soon. But I think this sector will keep going down, I think we are on a thin line between understanding where the economy is heading and a bad surprise.
I see nothing but red right now except AAPL, YHOO, and MMM.
Ether_Snake
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gkrykewy said:
I think the coming biofuels/renewable energy wave will come faster than most expect. Lots of people are saying that there is less incentive to spend money in solar/wind/etc with low oil prices, and it's true, but I think anyone with half a brain right now would use the economic situation as an opportunity to finance renewable energy initiatives now rather than when everything will be more expensive. Doing otherwise is short-term thinking, and while I am certain that most out there think on a short-term basis, I think we'll be surprised by how much less dependent on oil we'll be in a few years.
And people say "oh, developing countries will be using oil, and more of it, in the future", again that's sort of true but look at most of today's technologies like internet, cellphone, etc., the Chinese middle class isn't using 1960s phones, they have cellphones, they use the internet, etc. Today's technology is more easily afforded even by developing countries than technology was decades ago. China is making cheap electric cars, etc.
That's just my impression, probably because I read too much of these two websites:
http://gas2.org/
http://www.ecogeek.org/
It's crazy how much is going on and we're not even hearing about it from the big news channels.
But I get the feeling we'll be surprised by how lower the demand for oil will be in a few years. Not long ago, even as the world-wide recession kicked in and oil was in the 80s analysts were saying "$200 a barrel in December!".
Anyway I don't have BHI for nothing, it's just diversifying for me, lowering my risks. And either way, if oil prices rise I'll be a winner on BHI and STP
Ether_Snake
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Hmm from that Exxon-Air Products Chemicals deal just announced it made me look at APD (ticker for Air Products). They've been really consistent in the past, and dropped significantly recently. They got a big debt, but otherwise it looks interesting, so I'm adding it to my watch list. No money to buy this tho.
Ether_Snake
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Interesting article:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/is-another-emerging-markets-crisis-in.html
EDIT: I just realized how much the US dollar rose recently. Anyway I'm getting my money back from my friend. I placed my bid for another 50 shares of BHI at 32.30.
That's it. I don't see myself making another trade any time soon. But I always say that
And I can't believe BA is still facing the strike. Fatcats!
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/is-another-emerging-markets-crisis-in.html
EDIT: I just realized how much the US dollar rose recently. Anyway I'm getting my money back from my friend. I placed my bid for another 50 shares of BHI at 32.30.
That's it. I don't see myself making another trade any time soon. But I always say that
And I can't believe BA is still facing the strike. Fatcats!
Ether_Snake said:
Add to this we have many companies, especially in Mexico and Brazil, that were not just hedging their currency risk, but speculating for profit on the demise of the greenback. Now, these companies are going bankrupt as those derivatives reverse on them. Sadia SA is one example of this, lost more money this quarter on bad currency bets than their entire yearly revenue. What the fuck is a food processor doing levering themselves up on currency derivatives to the tune of several multiples more than their yearly revenue.
I think we are going to see more and more emerging market disclosure of this type of poor risk management.
People say this is a real estate bubble only or a wall st. bubble, but really this problem is a global risk bubble. What I mean is that in all sectors no one was adequately accounting for the risks they were taking, or really taking a long hard look at their exposure.
Ether_Snake
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dionysus said:
Yeah definitly, that's why I always think we're on the line; people act like we got a relative idea of where we are heading, but a lot remains blurry and unaccounted for.
I know some Jewish people who have been converting all their US dollars in CADs recently. Another bad move. Now I know why Jewish people are always trying to make money; it's because they lose so much of it!
EDIT: EA will release Monopoly on PSN/XBL/VC? Smart, I was wondering why games like Monopoly or Chess or Scrabble were not available on the console online services, you'd think they'd be among the biggest sellers.
Some more dismal news.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122467220059358063.html?mod=testMod
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122460155879054331.html
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122463251866656551.html
Can non-subscribers read this stuff?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122467220059358063.html?mod=testMod
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122460155879054331.html
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122463251866656551.html
Can non-subscribers read this stuff?
gkrykewy said:
The 30th (Japan time). See here -
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/schedule/index.html
Ether_Snake
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dionysus said:
Some of this is on nakedcapitalism.com in some form in the recent headlines, also bloomberg.com.
Not the exact articles but same subjects.
Ether_Snake
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Boeing's 3Q profit dives 38 percent amid strike
Unions are fine but sometimes it gets a bit excessive...
Unions are fine but sometimes it gets a bit excessive...
Ether_Snake said:I think the coming biofuels/renewable energy wave will come faster than most expect. Lots of people are saying that there is less incentive to spend money in solar/wind/etc with low oil prices, and it's true, but I think anyone with half a brain right now would use the economic situation as an opportunity to finance renewable energy initiatives now rather than when everything will be more expensive. Doing otherwise is short-term thinking, and while I am certain that most out there think on a short-term basis, I think we'll be surprised by how much less dependent on oil we'll be in a few years.
And people say "oh, developing countries will be using oil, and more of it, in the future", again that's sort of true but look at most of today's technologies like internet, cellphone, etc., the Chinese middle class isn't using 1960s phones, they have cellphones, they use the internet, etc. Today's technology is more easily afforded even by developing countries than technology was decades ago. China is making cheap electric cars, etc.
That's just my impression, probably because I read too much of these two websites:
http://gas2.org/
http://www.ecogeek.org/
It's crazy how much is going on and we're not even hearing about it from the big news channels.
But I get the feeling we'll be surprised by how lower the demand for oil will be in a few years. Not long ago, even as the world-wide recession kicked in and oil was in the 80s analysts were saying "$200 a barrel in December!".
Anyway I don't have BHI for nothing, it's just diversifying for me, lowering my risks. And either way, if oil prices rise I'll be a winner on BHI and STP
I guess I'm of two minds. On one hand, I agree with your conclusions that massive investments will be made in alternative fuels. On the other hand, it's not at all clear which if any of the present alternative pathways (bio, solar, wind, new-cue-lar, etc) will be cost-effective and self-sustainable at economies of scale. Subsidies of all sorts, combined with rapid innovation, will lead to unpredictable outcomes.
Further, I am a peak-oil guy. I do believe that globally we are at or past the point of peak annual production. At the same time, even with the recent/current downturn, our global consumption has only declined marginally.
As a result, I think the transition toward alternatives will see a few more oil spikes/shocks in the meantime.
http://us.ft.com/ftgateway/superpage.ft?news_id=fto102220081407487792&referrer_id=yahoofinance
Interesting...maybe Toshiba may make a bid sometime in the future.
Ether_Snake
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Well solar for example is backed by government financing, which is drying up now, and will continue to dry up unless governments think long term and say "Ok, we're in shit now but we're not getting out of it by going back in time, we can only create jobs by investing in infrastructure, energy independence, etc.", but right now they have to chose what they'll put their money in and they might think short term because of the economical situation, and they sort of have to.
But IMO the only thing that can raise the economy on a global level is massive investment in what I'd consider to be part of what we usually associate with the "future society": renewable energy, new composite materials, nanotechnology, etc. All costly, but what the heck is going to create a demand for commodities if not a new "revolution"? Nothing else can. Where can we create value? There is nothing valuable left, that's why we tried to create value where there was none.
I don't see how oil could go back up significantly (other than thanks to major production cuts), for that we need demand, and where will the demand come from? The demand we've seen in the past decade was artificial, an unsustainable demand, backed by a void. Serious demand, IMO, could only happen through a revolution. I think we'll hit the floor hard, and won't get up, and eventually we'll start to see that investment in the "future society" I mentioned above have been the sole valuable investments that have led to demand and job creation, and then the flood gates will open.
A world of over-consumption backed by non-existing value could only lead to an attempt to return to those past consumption levels, but backed with actual value. It will take time for the world to realize what direction it should take, but I don't see a return to the past system of consumption backed by no valuable assets, which means I don't see demand for oil or metals getting off the ground until a revolution kicks in.
That's my crazy opinion
BTW, good video from Roubini today at CNBC: http://www.cnbc.com/id/27321400
But IMO the only thing that can raise the economy on a global level is massive investment in what I'd consider to be part of what we usually associate with the "future society": renewable energy, new composite materials, nanotechnology, etc. All costly, but what the heck is going to create a demand for commodities if not a new "revolution"? Nothing else can. Where can we create value? There is nothing valuable left, that's why we tried to create value where there was none.
I don't see how oil could go back up significantly (other than thanks to major production cuts), for that we need demand, and where will the demand come from? The demand we've seen in the past decade was artificial, an unsustainable demand, backed by a void. Serious demand, IMO, could only happen through a revolution. I think we'll hit the floor hard, and won't get up, and eventually we'll start to see that investment in the "future society" I mentioned above have been the sole valuable investments that have led to demand and job creation, and then the flood gates will open.
A world of over-consumption backed by non-existing value could only lead to an attempt to return to those past consumption levels, but backed with actual value. It will take time for the world to realize what direction it should take, but I don't see a return to the past system of consumption backed by no valuable assets, which means I don't see demand for oil or metals getting off the ground until a revolution kicks in.
That's my crazy opinion
BTW, good video from Roubini today at CNBC: http://www.cnbc.com/id/27321400
Ether_Snake
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tarius1210 said:
Expect some lawsuit from shareholders against Sandisk as a result of a missed opportunity
Ether_Snake
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With the dollar going up don't you guys think the feds will cut interest rates soon?
Ether_Snake
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Yep. I think we'll be in the 7000 to 9000 for months, with a good part of that time in the high mid 8000 to mid 9000.
Some comfort tho: in bad times, October was usually the low point
Some comfort tho: in bad times, October was usually the low point
Ether_Snake said:
I'll ignore your goofy revolution nonsense :lol
I'm not sure what you mean re: artificial demand when we're talking about OIL, not consumer goods. The global demand for oil today is essentially the same as when it was $140 per barrel. A lot of that was speculation, of course, but wild price swings also happen as you begin to edge up against actual supply constraints.
Those supply constraints won't be going anywhere. If you believe that the global economy will essentially shut down, then yes, there will be actual demand destruction for oil. But in that case I will have bigger concerns than the year-to-date declines in my investment portfolio.
Ether_Snake said:
Definitely.
Ether_Snake
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What I meant was that oil is an indicator of economic activity in the sense that if it's in less demand then it's because the economy is slowing, and I'm saying I don't see the economy getting back into shape without the equivalent of the industrial revolution (figuratively speaking), I think since the .com boom what we have been seeing is a will to valuate where there was no value, we have been looking for the economy to grow, for new sectors to open. The digital era is allowing for more information to be shared, for countries around the world to develop in relation to one another at much closer pace than ever before, but the room is just getting more crowded. In a way it's like what would happen if more and more people made the same amount of money; if everyone is a millionaire, nobody's rich.
So I'm saying that demand won't go up until a revolution allows for real value creation, which would "open doors in the crowded room" and allow for some order with value holders financing value-seekers, and the economy to run properly.
Are you sure demand is unchanged? I would doubt that.
EDIT: BHI down 24% ouch.
So I'm saying that demand won't go up until a revolution allows for real value creation, which would "open doors in the crowded room" and allow for some order with value holders financing value-seekers, and the economy to run properly.
Are you sure demand is unchanged? I would doubt that.
EDIT: BHI down 24% ouch.
artredis1980
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