We don't know for sure whether Gen 8 will be anywhere close to Gen 6 when it's all said and done. There's a very good chance that it won't, but if it does then it will probably be due to XB1 > XBX. This is a question that may not be answered for a very long time though, depending on how low the PS4's price ends up for sales in RotW. IIRC, the PS2 sold >50m after PS3 was released. I'm not saying the PS4 has potential to do that, but the upper limit of its potential seems to be a good amount in excess of 100m, and could see some level of success at a cheaper price point down the line. Time will tell, it could all collapse, I'm just not 100% sure that this gen will be smaller than Gen 6. Also why I was wondering if Switch will count for a Gen 9 that may not be started by other companies for another 2 or 3 years. I could see the Switch being another Wii/DS/PS2 type breakout, it's got the big differentiating feature, and all of the early hype behind it.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
The Nintendo Switch has become the system people love to love
- Thread starter marc^o^
- Start date
We don't know for sure whether Gen 8 will be anywhere close to Gen 6 when it's all said and done. There's a very good chance that it won't, but if it does then it will probably be due to XB1 > XBX. This is a question that may not be answered for a very long time though, depending on how low the PS4's price ends up for sales in RotW. IIRC, the PS2 sold >50m after PS3 was released. I'm not saying the PS4 has potential to do that, but the upper limit of its potential seems to be a good amount in excess of 100m, and could see some level of success at a cheaper price point down the line. Time will tell, it could all collapse, I'm just not 100% sure that this gen will be smaller than Gen 6. Also why I was wondering if Switch will count for a Gen 9 that may not be started by other companies for another 2 or 3 years. I could see the Switch being another Wii/DS/PS2 type breakout, it's got the big differentiating feature, and all of the early hype behind it.
NOLA_Gaffer
Banned
I'm not sure how to answer this since it's fairly contextual.
80 million is closer to 75 million than 100 million, but 80 million is closer to 100 million than 50 million.
But now we're getting outside of the original context of console sales and into pedantic number play.
this whole bit started because you predicted that the Switch wouldn't sell "anywhere near 100 million" and I tried to get you to contextualize that prediction for me with an actual number. basically what would the Switch need to sell for you to consider it "anywhere near 100 million"? 80? 85? 90?
Hate is real : /. And I'm sad when an expression I don't like is real.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Ummm yes? Why wouldn't it.
NOLA_Gaffer
Banned
Man you are looking way too deeply into this.
All I was trying to say is that I don't expect the Switch to get anywhere close to the Wii's phenomenal hardware sales, and I just used "100 million" in place of "Wii lifetime hardware sales".
Liliana Eileen
Member
Triplicates
Member
I still think Wii numbers are a pipe dream, but who knows? Switch might have a long life as it's the perfect foundation for being rejuvenated often with different SKUs and incremental upgrades.
While reading through this thread, I can't quite figure out why you're being so stubborn about clarifying what is considered "close" to the goalpost you set. You say it won't get near Wii, or near 100 million. Fine. But clarify what that means. At what point would you consider yourself wrong? If it sells 80? 90? 99? What do you consider close?
family_guy
Member
I think the only time you would have seen anything around 250 million is because of the Wii for obvious reasons. Sales have dropped back to normal because those casuals left. The typical mark has probably been around 130-160 million and that's remained pretty consistent since the PS1 days.
LegendofLex
Member
Yeah, in fairness I'm definitely calling it before I see it.
I just don't see PS4 reaching PS2 numbers (I think it tops out around 100m), and I expect Xbox One + Wii U to end up just a little higher than GameCube + OG Xbox.
I'd personally throw Switch in Gen 9. Gen 8 started more than six years before it launched, and Switch is positioned in both of categories occupied by Nintendo's two sun-setting platforms.
Gen 5 saw more than 150 million consoles sold.
Gen 6 saw more than 210 million consoles sold.
Gen 7 saw more than 230 million handhelds sold alongside 250+ million consoles.
If Gen 8 sees 160 million consoles sold, that's a pretty significant decline - and an end to previously uninterrupted growth.
There is no "normal" because there hasn't been a like-for-like generation in terms of sales to date. The best you'd get is probably Gen 3 to Gen 4. The closest thing to "normal" we've gotten is constant gen-over-gen growth, which we'll see in terms of dollars this gen but not in terms of consumers.
randomengine
Banned
I just got back from Best Buy during my lunch break. Their new releases kiosk now only has prey and then all Switch games. 5 Switch titles all different vs prey on PS4 and Xbox. So where 12 total titles are placed, m 2 are tethered systems for the same game on different systems and 10 are Switch titles for 5 different games.
They have a kiosk you come upon right before you enter the games area. All Switch games and accessories.
They have another new game area - the main one. Copies of prey for PS4 and Xbox. The rest were Switch games.
What the hell is going on?
They have a kiosk you come upon right before you enter the games area. All Switch games and accessories.
They have another new game area - the main one. Copies of prey for PS4 and Xbox. The rest were Switch games.
What the hell is going on?
The Last One
Member
Nothing?
I'm not even sure what you're implying with this one tbh.
Liliana Eileen
Member
Um, nothing?
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Not only do I love my Switch, I can see eventually getting a second one, for the kids to each use one separately. Not until the cost comes down, but still.
First console I've gotten near launch since the PS3.
First console I've gotten near launch since the PS3.
randomengine
Banned
All their front-facing kiosks are dominated by Switch games and accessories. Even though they have no systems to sell. This was not the case after launch. It was mostly PS4/Xbox space with maybe a Nintendo game. Maybe.
Now PS4/Xbox are the games you see less of on the prominent shelves.
Persona 5 is gone even though they have copies on the shelves. The Switch games aren't even all new. Mass effect is gone, though there are still copies on the shelves.
NOLA_Gaffer
Banned
Okay let's pick a number: 75 million.
The best selling handheld hardware that Nintendo has produced is the Nintendo DS at 154 million units, and that's in a pre-smartphone world.
The second-best selling Nintendo handheld hardware is the Game Boy line, at 118 million units and that's after over 10 years of recorded hardware sales.
The 3DS is currently at 66 million units, and I can see that hitting 70 million before it's all said and done.
Considering the Switch is going to sell to 3DS owners, the handful of Wii U owners that don't already own a 3DS, and some new customers, I can see the Switch topping out at about 75 million at the most.
Now holy shit can we move on? Goddamn.
lol this is like pulling teeth
so you don't expect the Switch to get anywhere close to the Wii's hardware sales. cool. define "anywhere close". if the Switch got to 80 million is that anywhere close? just answer that please
You were the one dragging your response out being purposefully obtuse about it. It was clear immediately to me (as a bystander) what they were asking you and you chose drag it out.
But yes, 75 million, perfect. Thanks for answering. Time will tell if you're right or wrong. I love my Switch but I'm inclined to agree with you for now until I see sales this holiday season.
CharminUltra
Member
I go to the Switch eShop and want to buy all the games, but I already built up a pretty decent Switch game backlog.
My wallet is being held hostage.
My wallet is being held hostage.
Love this system so far. Playing Zelda on the plane so just perfect. We're taking it on the car with us to play Mario Kart on a road trip to Chicago. It's gonna be a blast. And I've taken it to a bar before to play Bomberman. It's just great so far. This is coming from someone who was very disappointed in the Wii and WiiU and was not impressed with the reveal. Then my wife got this ststem and I'm in love with it.
NOLA_Gaffer
Banned
My problem is backlogs on other platforms. I'm having trouble pushing myself to buy Switch software when I have so much to still play on the 3DS and Wii U.
I have $70+ in eShop credit that got transferred unspent on Wii U. My problem is that I only want 2 of the games that are even out(MK8D and BotW) and I already own both. The others I am remotely interested in, I have on other platforms already. I'll probably double dip on Disgaea 5 but take the physical version.
Cuningas de Häme;236146695 said:
Most of your points are covered ever since Suspend/Resume released on the other consoles, and handhelds had it already. The off TV stuff is cool too, but there are ways around that also(Remote Play, Shield streaming). It's great that you love the Switch, but you're doing a whole lot of projection to others' lifestyles(saying it's THE console for dads). I guess that's to be expected with the labeling "broconsoles" though.
Normally power matters to me also, but this has plenty for what it is IMO. I personally think of it more as something between handheld and console, and I'm just happy to not have to look at the 3DS's atrocious screen anymore. I also would never have a Nintendo system as my only/primary gaming means, so that amounts to something I guess.
DarkoMaledictus
Tier Whore
Zelda is amazing, about all I can say for now. Also available on the WII U, so nothing to brag about for the switch.
Wish it had a lot more horsepower if anything...
Wish it had a lot more horsepower if anything...
raginrapids
Member
This is such a GAF thread. People getting upset about what other people like or don't like.........sigh
Kabuki Quantum Lover
Member
I like the Switch. I don't like the price of the Switch's accessories. It's awful.
HeisenbergWW62
Banned
Why does every third party game thread turns into Switch portbegging?
Skittzo0413
Member
It's interesting to remember that >70% of Switch owners are males in their 20s and 30s, which seems fairly different from Nintendo's normal demographics. This is part of the reason why I think western AAA's are leaving money on the table, like with Assassins Creed and CoD. This audience seems fairly different from Nintendo's past audiences, at least so far.
To be fair, you basically said you don't see it getting "close" to 100 million units sold, and all he was asking was what your definition of "close" was. Like, 10%? 20%?
I see you clarified that 75 million is what you think the cap is, and that's really all he was asking for haha
I don't get this, why do people need to buy so many accessories? All I bought so far is one extra pair of joycons and that's all I need for 4 player local multiplayer.
I guess I got the Zelda Special Edition Switch case so that took care of that purchase too. And I bought a USB-C cable on Amazon for about $12. But beyond that I've spent nearly all of my Switch money on games, not accessories.
To be fair, you basically said you don't see it getting "close" to 100 million units sold, and all he was asking was what your definition of "close" was. Like, 10%? 20%?
I see you clarified that 75 million is what you think the cap is, and that's really all he was asking for haha
I don't get this, why do people need to buy so many accessories? All I bought so far is one extra pair of joycons and that's all I need for 4 player local multiplayer.
I guess I got the Zelda Special Edition Switch case so that took care of that purchase too. And I bought a USB-C cable on Amazon for about $12. But beyond that I've spent nearly all of my Switch money on games, not accessories.
evil monkey
Member
My take is that it's mostly hybrid console port begging, and there's nothing wrong with that. Switch just happens to be the only system that fits that description.
Plus posting "it'd be great if game X came to Switch" is nowhere near as derailing as coming into a Switch success/sales thread and trying to downplay it.
Bioshocker
Member
Maybe some of us like games journalism, not just love letters like this Polygon article.
Liliana Eileen
Member
Sounds like you have tinted shades to me.
gigantor21
Member
FUCK YOU ICE CUBE
I, for one, am really glad I was wrong about the Switch and hope it carries this momentum for the rest of the year and beyond.
NOLA_Gaffer
Banned
To be fair even first party 3DS game threads turn into portbegging.
thanks for proving him right.
Since this discussion was talking about flaws and manufacturing issues/failure rates initially, PS2 still suffers disc read errors problems to this day, and most replacement parts for PS2 are for the slim model these days. And if we're talking slim, failure rate of the PS2 slim back in the day was due to a faulty adapter that would cause slims to overheat or outright combust. Sony had to recall a lot of AC adapters for the slim.
https://www.gamespot.com/articles/sony-recalls-35-million-ps2-ac-adapters/1100-6133098/
No electronic device is without early issues or failures though. They will be minimized further and further as they continue to manufacture more devices.
James Scott
Banned
You know the Vita launched with *no* storage, right?
The Joy Con have 20 hour battery life and charge when it's on the system. Doesn't seem like much of an issue.
The lack of a headphone jack is unfortunate, though. At least I can use the system's headphone jack on my desk while in docked mode.
Reminds me of the Vita memory cards.
Skittzo0413
Member
Except you don't need to buy a single accessory for the Switch to play games.
digoutyoursoul
Member
I'm still not sure what to make of it, I think I need to spend some considerable time with it to make my mind up on a purchase. There are a few things I'm not sure of long term, like the online infrastructure and third party support.
A part of me still wishes for a traditional, powerful box and let the software set it apart but that sort of console is not likely from Nintendo.
A part of me still wishes for a traditional, powerful box and let the software set it apart but that sort of console is not likely from Nintendo.
No. Absolutely not.
At least with the switch I didn't have to blow close to 80 US dollars just to have the abillity to SAVE. Keep in mind if someone got Uncharted or rayman at launch but no overpriced mem card they were screwed until they got one. That is and always will be unacceptable in a handheld.
_Spr_Drnk
Banned
Anecdotal at best I know, but a friend who slated it on release and who also looked disappointed with me (like you'd look at a small child) for buying one, came round last Thursday, got the Switch in his hands, played Mario Kart for a bit and has been gutted by the lack of stock since.