Support NeoGAF

[Kabouter]

But hey, bluffing with the livelihoods of thousands of people amongst a new wave of xenophobia and racist incidents across the country won't hurt anyone, right? Right?

I didn't mean it as saying I approve of that crap, obviously I strongly disagree with her even leaving the possibility open. At the very least I think certainty should be given to the people who were already there on the day of the referendum.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Are they retroactively corrected for current year?

No. You just get the actual quarterly figure, say, g, and then say growth = g^4. So if they report 2% growth as that quarterly figure, it means the actual amount the economy grew in that quarter was 0.5%.

Because we're talking very small numbers, g^4 is approximately equal to 4*g anyway.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Love you doing the numbers on this Crab. I'm sure myself and another poster were talking about this recently, but basically it's like compound interest - people really, really don't understand how it works or what the effects of a short term drop are. I didn't until I saw a treasury presentation on the 2008 crisis that made my hair stand on end.

Pretty much. A short-term drop is always disastrous in a compound model. It can only take a tiny drop to make longer-term higher rates worse than middling rates with no drop.

 

[*Splinter]

Crab, are these figures assuming we keep single market access (and so London continues to be a major financial centre) or is this a scenario where we lose that access and much of London moves to the continent?

 

[KingSnake]

No. You just get the actual quarterly figure, say, g, and then say growth = g^4. So if they report 2% growth as that quarterly figure, it means the actual amount the economy grew in that quarter was 0.5%.

You're talking about y/y growth per quarter?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Crab, are these figures assuming we keep single market access (and so London continues to be a major financial centre) or is this a scenario where we lose that access and much of London moves to the continent?

-2.5% is for no single market access. If we keep the Norway model, then most estimates I've seen range from -0.8 to -1.6%, as a ballpark.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

You're talking about y/y growth per quarter?

Okay, say my economy was, at the start of the year, £100, and in the first 3 months it grew to £100.5, so the growth rate for that quarter and that quarter alone (q/q) was 0.5%. If it grew like that for the whole year (y/y), my economy would be at £102.02, so the growth rate that gets reported for the quarter I actually experienced, that took me to £100.5, would be 2.02%. Quarterly growth is almost always expressed in terms of what it would be if that quarter was the constant growth rate for a year. I don't actually know why this is; I think it's one of those things that started a very long time ago and nobody has bothered doing anything about it.

 

[*Splinter]

-2.5% is for no single market access. If we keep the Norway model, then most estimates I've seen range from -0.8 to -1.6%, as a ballpark.

Huh, that sounds like a lot less of a drop than I had been assuming.

Those are presumably optimistic estimates on the duration of the drop and the speed of recovery. Even so I thought the initial drop would be harsher, 2.5% doesn't sound like something that will be noticed by the general population.

Thanks for the info.

 

[CTLance]

How realistic is it to kidnap Crab and force him to give a Crabnomics crash course to all of Britain via hacked BBC landlines?

 

[dramatis]

So a) that's a different paper, b) it's still a 1% fall in absolute terms, c) it's at the optimistic end of most predictions I've seen, and fine, d) here's what the figures look like the -1% a year for 5 years then 2.5%, or 2% in perpetuity:

Takes until 2053 until we're better off.

What probably matters most is the last line, but if you would like your data to be more tabular you can use the CODE tag

Not entirely relevant to the discussion so carry on

 

[MrHoot]

How realistic is it to kidnap Crab and force him to give a Crabnomics crash course to all of Britain via hacked BBC landlines?

We shall call it "Giant Economy Crab"

 

[*Splinter]

How realistic is it to kidnap Crab and force him to run for Labour leadership

FTFY

 

[ClosingADoor]

Huh, that sounds like a lot less of a drop than I had been assuming.

Those are presumably optimistic estimates on the duration of the drop and the speed of recovery. Even so I thought the initial drop would be harsher, 2.5% doesn't sound like something that will be noticed by the general population.

Thanks for the info.

The financial crisis of '08 was -2.4% or so. So regular people do feel that.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Huh, that sounds like a lot less of a drop than I had been assuming.

Those are presumably optimistic estimates on the duration of the drop and the speed of recovery. Even so I thought the initial drop would be harsher, 2.5% doesn't sound like something that will be noticed by the general population.

Thanks for the info.

It compounds, though. Five years of -2.5% is a -13.1% drop overall. Most are predicting the UK stays in the single market in some form, so five years of -1.2% (for the sake of argument) is -6.1% (which is the ballpark figure you'll see most cite). A 6.1% drop in your income is pretty noticeable.

 

[Morat]

How realistic is it to kidnap Crab and force him to give a Crabnomics crash course to all of Britain via hacked BBC landlines?

Just make sure its not Crabb

 

[Deleted member 231381]

What probably matters most is the last line, but if you would like your data to be more tabular you can use the CODE tag

Not entirely relevant to the discussion so carry on

GAF supports CODE? I swear I tried that before and it didn't work.

Hello World

EDIT: Oh my god we do, EviLore be praised.

 

[Micael]

You linked: fishing industries, a tiny fraction of the UK's economy; the FTA and PSR, neither of which have happened yet; the clinical trials proceedings which will apply anyway if we want single market access; and that's it, I think?

More than that, and industry that even if the UK leaves the EU, would still have to follow EU rules, if it wanted to trade with the EU.
Also an industry where those problems have been acknowledge and are being fixed (or attempts to anyway), and where there is absolutely no guarantee that the UK would have done a better job, given how at least some of the complaints I have seen weren't really about there still being overfishing, merely that the bi product of overfishing was being thrown away.
Which ofc goes once again with the all maybe the UK would have done better, maybe they wouldn't have, which is a pretty tremendous gamble to make with extremely strong evidence to suggest they won't, and basically no real evidence to suggest they will.

 

[kmag]

Huh, that sounds like a lot less of a drop than I had been assuming.

Those are presumably optimistic estimates on the duration of the drop and the speed of recovery. Even so I thought the initial drop would be harsher, 2.5% doesn't sound like something that will be noticed by the general population.

Thanks for the info.

Oh they'd notice a 2.5% drop

 

[CTLance]

FTFY

This kills the Crab.

 

[Hasney]

All this talk of fish makes me look forward to standing in markets next to GAF members with out own stall songs:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3mTSXIMumY

Hey, I live opposite an old fashioned chippy and I'm trying to eat healthy again... This thread is killing me in a different way than it did last week.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

guys, I'm literally just doing compound interest maths to show how small drops become big in the long run, it's really not all that.

 

[Theonik]

GAF supports CODE? I swear I tried that before and it didn't work.

Hello World

EDIT: Oh my god we do, EviLore be praised.

GAF is a heavily modified vBuletin board so it supports everything you'd expect from one sans the things that were added or removed.

Spoiler

This is also why GAF scales very poorly.

 

[*Splinter]

The financial crisis of '08 was -2.4% or so. So regular people do feel that.

It compounds, though. Five years of -2.5% is a -13.1% drop overall. Most are predicting the UK stays in the single market in some form, so five years of -1.2% (for the sake of argument) is -6.1% (which is the ballpark figure you'll see most cite). A 6.1% drop in your income is pretty noticeable.

Oh they'd notice a 2.5% drop

~graph

Ah, gotcha

 

[oti]

I didn't mean it as saying I approve of that crap, obviously I strongly disagree with her even leaving the possibility open. At the very least I think certainty should be given to the people who were already there on the day of the referendum.

I know, hon. I meant the idiot politicians who say this dangerous crap.

 

[Lego Boss]

I've stopped listening.

Too many experts in this thread.

 

[KingSnake]

Okay, say my economy was, at the start of the year, £100, and in the first 3 months it grew to £100.5, so the growth rate for that quarter and that quarter alone (q/q) was 0.5%. If it grew like that for the whole year (y/y), my economy would be at £102.02, so the growth rate that gets reported for the quarter I actually experienced, that took me to £100.5, would be 2.02%. Quarterly growth is almost always expressed in terms of what it would be if that quarter was the constant growth rate for a year. I don't actually know why this is; I think it's one of those things that started a very long time ago and nobody has bothered doing anything about it.

Q1 2016 had 0.4% increase over Q4 2015 and 2.1% compared to Q1 2015. This is what I'm addressing.

I think I remembered wrongly the 2.5% drop for 2016, that was compared to the "normal" growth estimated for 2016, now seems to be estimated to be flat.

 

[Hoo-doo]

I've stopped listening.

Too many experts in this thread.

That's when you have to start paying attention.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Q1 2016 had 0.4% increase over Q4 2015 and 2.1% compared to Q1 2015. This is what I'm addressing.

That one is being reported in actual quarterly terms. That's not always standard practice. Basically just always check for carefully what the unit of the figures is.

 

[Tyaren]

Uh-oh! If Leadsom becomes primeminister Freedom of Movement will stop according to her:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/04/andrea-leadsom-eu-nationals-in-uk-wont-be-brexit-bargaining-chips

And Brexit is, according to her, the greatest thing since the fall of the Berlin Wall... x__X

 

[CyclopsRock]

Go research how the executives of the UK and EU are created. The EP actually has a say in who becomes EC President. The Commons however doesn't have ANY say in who becomes PM. His or her appointment is carried out automatically and their support in the Commons is implied.

I think you're being intentionally dense here...

 

[CTLance]

I've stopped listening.

Too many experts in this thread.

Brexit in a nutshell.

 

[kmag]

Uh-oh! If Leadsom becomes primeminister Freedom of Movement will stop according to her:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/04/andrea-leadsom-eu-nationals-in-uk-wont-be-brexit-bargaining-chips

And Brexit is, according to her, the greatest thing since the fall of the Berlin Wall... x__X

And according to her we'd get full free market access alongside the end to freedom of movement because WE'RE THE GREATEST NATION ON EARTH

in somewhat related news, civil servants in the treasury are leaking against her like a sieve in terms which make the home office mandarins slagging off of Greyling seem somewhat mild.

[Leadsom’s] one-year stint from 2014-15 at the Treasury as City minister was seen inside 1 Horseguards Road as ‘a disaster’ by one official. ‘She was the worst minister we’ve ever had.’ Unlike Ms May, she has also not held down a cabinet job.

Ms Leadsom’s allies say that Mr Osborne blocked her promotion to the cabinet and after the last election the chancellor asked for her to be moved out of the Treasury. She was transferred by David Cameron to the energy department.

‘She found it difficult to understand issues or take decisions,’ said another Treasury official. ‘She was monomaniacal, seeing the EU as the source of every problem. She alienated officials by continually complaining about poor drafting.’

 

[KingSnake]

That one is being reported in actual quarterly terms. That's not always standard practice. Basically just always check for carefully what the unit of the figures is.

The point I was trying to make was the new estimated yearly drop/non increase for 2016 doesn't show the full picture, because the first 2 quarters show an increase while the following 2 quarters will most probably show quite a drop. But meanwhile the discussion moved on.

 

[Mindwipe]

Uh-oh! If Leadsom becomes primeminister Freedom of Movement will stop according to her:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/04/andrea-leadsom-eu-nationals-in-uk-wont-be-brexit-bargaining-chips

And Brexit is, according to her, the greatest thing since the fall of the Berlin Wall... x__X

"Everything for everyone! Irrespective of my ability to realistically deliver them!"

And the Tories used to say Labour had unrealistic financial forecasts.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

The point I was trying to make was the new estimated yearly drop/non increase for 2016 doesn't show the full picture, because the first 2 quarters show an increase while the following 2 quarters will most probably show quite a drop. But meanwhile the discussion moved on.

oh, I see what you're trying to say. Yes, that's quite true.

 

[SteveWD40]

Uh-oh! If Leadsom becomes primeminister Freedom of Movement will stop according to her:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/04/andrea-leadsom-eu-nationals-in-uk-wont-be-brexit-bargaining-chips

And Brexit is, according to her, the greatest thing since the fall of the Berlin Wall... x__X

I don't believe anything any of these twats are saying right now, it's all a means to get the big chair. People are running scared from the A50 button and I don't believe for one second her position has reversed that much from 3 years ago.

 

[Plum]

Uh-oh! If Leadsom becomes primeminister Freedom of Movement will stop according to her:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/04/andrea-leadsom-eu-nationals-in-uk-wont-be-brexit-bargaining-chips

And Brexit is, according to her, the greatest thing since the fall of the Berlin Wall... x__X

Wasn't the fall of the Berlin Wall you know, breaking down borders and unifying the people? How is building more borders and dividing the people anything like it?

 

[Lego Boss]

And according to her we'd get full free market access alongside the end to freedom of movement because WE'RE THE GREATEST NATION ON EARTH

in somewhat related news, civil servants in the treasury are leaking against her like a sieve in terms which make the home office mandarins slagging off of Greyling seem somewhat mild.

Perfect candidate. Stop the leadership process, ladies and gentlemen we have a winner!

 

[SlipperyFishes]

But since the EU created this directive that damaged things - and that's not the only such thing they did, they will perhaps create other directives that will damage things in the future. By exiting the EU we might escape the damage.

Project Fear. Right?

 

[mrklaw]

Uh-oh! If Leadsom becomes primeminister Freedom of Movement will stop according to her:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/04/andrea-leadsom-eu-nationals-in-uk-wont-be-brexit-bargaining-chips

And Brexit is, according to her, the greatest thing since the fall of the Berlin Wall... x__X

so she is an absolute euro-sceptic nutter; gove is a backstabbing murdoch puppet; May is going to use the Spanish as human shields; The labour party is literally imploding..

...can we have Cameron back please?

 

[Maledict]

I don't believe anything any of these twats are saying right now, it's all a means to get the big chair. People are running scared from the A50 button and I don't believe for one second her position has reversed that much from 3 years ago.

According the the civil service she's definitely had a change of heart. Out of all the candidates I think she is most likely to pull the trigger.

 

[JonnyDBrit]

Honestly at this stage I'm not entirely convinced this isn't the result of someone making a wish on a monkey's paw.

 

[oti]

Ed Miliband, the former Labour leader, told MPs in response to the EU nationals UQ that “no sane or fair government” would contemplate telling EU nationals living in the UK that they would have to leave. That meant threatening to remove them would be “incredible” as a negotiating position, he said. He said the government was “causing untold fear and misery” and that it should clarify the position and promise EU nationals they can stay.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...t-live-plan-leave-vote-hysteria-boris-johnson

 

[Zips]

It really appears like those who are optimistic about the results of the UK leaving the EU are basing their feeling on magical thoughts of somehow maintaining all the benefits the UK has enjoyed, with a dash of vague 'more independent control over x = profit'.

Really seems to ignore how an interconnected world works. Even outside the EU the UK would not be operating in a vacuum. Even with these fantasy numbers being thrown around, where is the idea that the UK's economy will somehow grow faster outside the EU coming from? What is supposed to fuel that? 'One crisis in the EU will even out the (fantasy) numbers'? Does it really look like the UK will have fewer crises than the EU? or that any crisis the EU has will not also affect the UK even if the UK is no longer part of the EU?

The UK is hitting itself in the face, doing damage for no reason. All I've seen is vague promises of 'it'll work out, we just have to wait'. That's so damn vague, it makes any positive growth in the future able to be claimed to be proof this was a good decision after all.

 

[Mikeside]

so she is an absolute euro-sceptic nutter; gove is a backstabbing murdoch puppet; May is going to use the Spanish as human shields; The labour party is literally imploding..

...can we have Cameron back please?

I'd take Brown back at this point

 

[CTLance]

Brexit OUT 7: We must go forward, not backward. Upward, not downward. And always twirling, twirling, twirling towards freedom.

 

[ferrasvansen]

I'd take Brown back at this point

Yeah I'd take him over this current lot, it's like a Carry on film, so many shady, funny, weird and backstabbing characters it's verging on hilarious. Only it's not so funny when you actually sit down and analyse the situation we face.

 

[Stuart444]

I'd take Brown back at this point

Same >.<

Also recently for some reason, my mind keeps going back to the last GE and all the "Let us finish what we started" "We'll balance the books", etc.

I don't know why... too much politics recently probably >.>

 

[oti]

so she is an absolute euro-sceptic nutter; gove is a backstabbing murdoch puppet; May is going to use the Spanish as human shields; The labour party is literally imploding..

...can we have Cameron back please?

It's like that episode of Disney's Recess when Director Prickly leaves and the kids get all excited only to find out that there are people who are way worse than him and it wasn't all that bad.

 

[Dougald]

I'd take Brown back at this point

Yeah but remember that time he called some woman who was complaining about Eastern Europeans to him a Bigot when he thought no-one was listening

Spoiler

To be fair, I think the total dismissal of every single complaint about immigration as racism only helped alienate people into voting leave, but still

Plus he was an unelected Prime Minister who had never been through a General Election! No other party would ever do that.