Britains final divorce bill for leaving the European Union could be as high as £50 billion, several current and former senior government officials have told City executives.
BuzzFeed News has learned of at least three separate recent occasions in which Whitehall insiders with knowledge of the Brexit negotiations told contacts in the banking sector that the UK will have to pay close to that amount, giving private assessments of the divorce bill that were different to the governments public position.
One of the estimates was included in a confidential memo for top corporate executives compiled by well-connected former government officials, including some who worked at a high level in 10 Downing Street. The memo, seen by BuzzFeed News, claims that senior figures in government believe a payment of around £50 billion will be necessary to secure a trade deal with the EU before Britain leaves in March 2019.
That figure does not reflect the views of Theresa May or her closest advisers, a spokesman for Downing Street said.
The document was shared with BuzzFeed News on the condition that its authors were not identified.
BuzzFeed News is aware of two other, unconnected recent conversations in which officials from the Department for Exiting the EU (DExEu) and the Treasury gave similar estimates of the likely exit bill to senior executives at leading financial services firms. Those executives regarded the assessments as authoritative, even though the officials were giving accounts at variance with official government policy.
Separately, a Treasury official told BuzzFeed News the divorce bill would be around £45 billion.
And a former government employee with knowledge of the Brexit discussions said that everybody sensible in Whitehall believes the UK will end up paying a sum in the tens of billions to settle its obligations to the EU when it leaves.
The UKs official position is that it will abide by its legal obligations to the EU, but that any financial settlement will be determined in the negotiations. The government has refused to comment on the size of the UKs liabilities, or to say whether there will be a net payment when Britain leaves the union.
The exit bill is one of the first issues the UK and the EU have to resolve in the formal Brexit talks that began last month. Analysts have calculated that Britains financial commitments which include yet to be paid contributions to the EUs budget, its share of projects that are due to be initiated after 2019, and longer-term obligations such as pensions and loan guarantees could be as high as £75 billion, although estimates have varied widely and some experts say Britain legally doesnt owe anything.