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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM

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It's a game of chicken where each side thinks they're a train and the other side is a.. reliant robin? The collision is going to be spectacular...
 

Joni

Member
Isn't that, like, the thing you should have done before espousing Brexit?

Isn't Rudd basically telling everyone that the entire Leave campaign was a farce supported on made up facts?

Don't you need that kind of data BEFORE engaging in negotiations so you can assess your strengths and weaknesses in order to get a better deal?

the fuckery of it

Yeah, it should at least have been done before triggering article 50 and before the vote. Not sure what their point is, last gasp save us from leaving hammer to Brexiter idiocy or deliberately leaving it too late so it doesn't matter.

I expect they will start to wind up the expert and enemies of the state hate for the committee to try and discredit it.

Unless they are to fix it by concluding that the EU labor isn't required.
 

theaface

Member
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Some anti-EU stuff, some fear and some Diana; yep, that's the Express alright.
 

kmag

Member
How are we going to solve this then?

As I've said consistently, there's no solution.

When the EU talks about innovative solutions to the Irish border this is what they've been talking about. When the UK talks about innovative solutions they're talking about unicorns and gold commodes.

The evidence by given to the commons Future of the land border with the Republic of Ireland inquiry was pretty clear.
 

Horsefly

Member
How are we going to solve this then?

Wouldn't this be a good thing? A part of the British state being inside the customs union? Open up economic opportunities for Northern Ireland allowing companies to have the best of both?

(I appreciate my naivety is through the roof on this)
 

kmag

Member
Wouldn't this be a good thing? A part of the British state being inside the customs union? Open up economic opportunities for Northern Ireland allowing companies to have the best of both?

(I appreciate my naivety is through the roof on this)

Economically yes, but the idea of a border between NI and the UK would make the unionists in NI explode with rage.
 
Don't worry, the brains of Brexit (no really) has the solution.

I don't follow.

I mean, that Tweet. I really feel like I'm missing something. Maybe I'm a bit thicker today.

I believe it's British romanticism imagining the entirety of the Isles as a single economic area, as though the Republic of Ireland wasn't, you know, the Republic of Ireland.

The only reason we're a 'single customs area' right now is because there is a larger body in which we can co-exist as partners. There's no political will for forming a mini-union that would once again explicitly tie Irish political policy to British policy. They were quite vocal about this almost a century ago.
 

kmag

Member
I don't follow.

I mean, that Tweet. I really feel like I'm missing something. Maybe I'm a bit thicker today.

British Isles are the England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Ireland. Hannan, the thinker of the brexiter crew, thinks that magically Ireland, should just be in some form of Customs Union with the UK, just like the days of empire.

That's sort of critical thinking, nostalgia ,and British exceptionalism informing the Brexit vote.
 

Wvrs

Member
Phillips Hammond has announced that Britain will seek a transitional deal for up to three years after Britain's official exit in 2019, which will see continued freedom of movement, access to the single market, etc.

I find myself agreeing with the Maltese PM. Brexit won't happen.
 

sammex

Member
As I've said consistently, there's no solution.

When the EU talks about innovative solutions to the Irish border this is what they've been talking about. When the UK talks about innovative solutions they're talking about unicorns and gold commodes.

The evidence by given to the commons Future of the land border with the Republic of Ireland inquiry was pretty clear.

Excuse my ignorance but what would the likely repercussions be if this came to pass? The DUP would withdraw support for the Tories obviously, but other than pissing off the unionists what could they actually do about it?
 

Uzzy

Member
Unsurprisingly the Government is already ruling that out. But they're not offering any other solutions to the border problem beyond magic tech wizardry that will obviously be up and running in 18 months time.

The DUP, meanwhile, are offering the helpful suggestion that Ireland leaves the EU instead.
 
Have to laugh at that "change in tone from Dublin" in the article. Did the UK think we were on their side in these negotiations?

Inland border will be a disaster.
 

Funky Papa

FUNK-Y-PPA-4
This Ian Paisley fellow needs to get a grip. I know the DUP inhabits its own plane of existence, but thinking that Ireland will exit the EU and side with the UK to join a customs union is so delusional I have to wonder if they are playing the electorate or if they really believe it.

Then again, the Tory intelligentsia seems to think along the same lines...
 

TimmmV

Member
This Ian Paisley fellow needs to get a grip. I know the DUP inhabits its own plane of existence, but thinking that Ireland will exit the EU and side with the UK to join a customs union is so delusional I have to wonder if they are playing the electorate or if they really believe it.

Then again, the Tory intelligentsia seems to think along the same lines...

Loads of the Brexiteers are still clinging to the idea that the EU is a dying institution and the UK leaving will be the first of many. Its a necessary delusion to make the decision to leave seem remotely rational
 

BigAl1992

Member
This Ian Paisley fellow needs to get a grip. I know the DUP inhabits its own plane of existence, but thinking that Ireland will exit the EU and side with the UK to join a customs union is so delusional I have to wonder if they are playing the electorate or if they really believe it.

Then again, the Tory intelligentsia seems to think along the same lines...

I would have to say the latter. As someone who's Irish and Who has lived here for most of my life, any thought of Ireland leaving the EU is a complete non-starter. The amount of farmers, businesses, schools, colleges, hospitals, ect. that rely on the EU or people from the EU is simply a good reason on it's own for people to stay within the EU. Not only that, but out of all of the political parties that are in the Dáil (Irish Parliament), only one seems to have an anti-EU view (Solidarity Party), and even then, they be talked down, or rather shouted down by the nationalist party of the Country Sinn Fein, believe it or not, as they're Pro-EU to the nth degree.

My Feeling is that they, and every other extreme Breexiteer, are still believing that this will be the end of the EU, despite several Elections and numerous polls saying that the EUs become more integrated as a result of Brexit. It's not happening.
 

Kabouter

Member
Loads of the Brexiteers are still clinging to the idea that the EU is a dying institution and the UK leaving will be the first of many. Its a necessary delusion to make the decision to leave seem remotely rational

I mean, the EU was in a bit of trouble, but thanks to the Brexiteers and Donald Trump at least some people are starting to realise leaving the EU is not all that desirable.
 

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
Everyone should have seen this would be the Irish government's position a year ago. It's about as workable a position as the DUP's too.

Good though this sounds, that would violate the GFA iirc. We're a decade away from a border poll being successful too.

Catholics will (possibly) outnumber Protestants in the 2021 census, but you're assuming 1:1 voting. The reality is that what the English taxpayer can provide (universal health care, general spending above the Republic and the mainland) is not something the Irish taxpayer would be willing to provide just to 2 million people in Northern Ireland. Additionally, Sinn Fein in particular clings to the past with what they consider "heroes", which rubs a lot of people the wrong way, as it should. People have complex motivations and are not going to vote 1:1 based on what community they are in, especially now.

Also, just hypothetically to win that border poll, the national anthem of Ireland would probably have to change, as would the flag which has come to represent something other than its original intention. Ireland rejoining the Commonwealth? Probably not. What other compromises would the Republic be willing to make? Federalism and the continuation of the NI Assembly? Probably not.
 

danm999

Member
Loads of the Brexiteers are still clinging to the idea that the EU is a dying institution and the UK leaving will be the first of many. Its a necessary delusion to make the decision to leave seem remotely rational

It's completely irrational delusion. I was talking to a Leave over recently, in Australia of all places, and he seemed to think if the EU was too harsh with the divorce bill the EU citizens would rise in anger.

I put it to him that since they'd be the beneficiary of the bill, why would they be unhappy at all. I think I saw his brain break as he tried to imagine things from their perspective, but to his credit he at least admitted he hadn't considered it from that perspective.
 

Theonik

Member
Catholics will (possibly) outnumber Protestants in the 2021 census, but you're assuming 1:1 voting. The reality is that what the English taxpayer can provide (universal health care, general spending above the Republic and the mainland) is not something the Irish taxpayer would be willing to provide just to 2 million people in Northern Ireland. Additionally, Sinn Fein in particular clings to the past with what they consider "heroes", which rubs a lot of people the wrong way, as it should. People have complex motivations and are not going to vote 1:1 based on what community they are in, especially now.

Also, just hypothetically to win that border poll, the national anthem of Ireland would probably have to change, as would the flag which has come to represent something other than its original intention. Ireland rejoining the Commonwealth? Probably not. What other compromises would the Republic be willing to make? Federalism and the continuation of the NI Assembly? Probably not.
I'm not assuming catholics will all vote to join the republic hence I am saying at least a decade. Demographics indicate it is inevitable, it's not really a rational choice either, and you are making a few key assumptions about what the English taxpayer is willing to offer NI in the long run, hell the way things are going the NHS is not long for this world in England NI won't be spared from that.

As for the national anthem and flag those are probably non-issues on both sides. Some vocal minorities might complain but will be footnotes in this kind of thing.
 

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
I'm not assuming catholics will all vote to join the republic hence I am saying at least a decade. Demographics indicate it is inevitable, it's not really a rational choice either, and you are making a few key assumptions about what the English taxpayer is willing to offer NI in the long run, hell the way things are going the NHS is not long for this world in England NI won't be spared from that.

Demographics indicate less now than they used to. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-37309706

The Tories can't even get a majority anymore except once by some fluke. Them forced to rule with other parties when in power and a resurgent Labour that's more left than it has been since the 1980's means that nothing is certain regarding health care and its demise.

Not really making assumptions either. Higher public spending per person outside of England has been the norm for ages. We're talking about territories equating to only 15-16 percent of the population which makes that easier.

As for the national anthem and flag those are probably non-issues on both sides. Some vocal minorities might complain but will be footnotes in this kind of thing.

You've got to be joking....
 

Theonik

Member
Demographics indicate less now than they used to. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-37309706

The Tories can't even get a majority anymore except once by some fluke. Them forced to rule with other parties when in power and a resurgent Labour that's more left than it has been since the 1980's means that nothing is certain regarding health care and its demise.

Not really making assumptions either. Higher public spending per person outside of England has been the norm for ages. We're talking about territories equating to only 15-16 percent of the population which makes that easier.
Tories don't need to do much to kill the NHS just stay in power long enough. Their plans to starve the beast are working and anyone who takes over after them will have a very hard time fixing it. This isn't a Scotland independence situation really either. Many people wanted to stay in the union because they thought that was better for them there is also demographic consideration as well as allowing EU citizens to vote, for NI the nature of Brexit will play a very big part. I think NI is more keen to join the republic than take whatever damage comes from Brexit/a hard ROI border. But that's over time.
 

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
Tories don't need to do much to kill the NHS just stay in power long enough. Their plans to starve the beast are working and anyone who takes over after them will have a very hard time fixing it. This isn't a Scotland independence situation really either. Many people wanted to stay in the union because they thought that was better for them there is also demographic consideration as well as allowing EU citizens to vote, for NI the nature of Brexit will play a very big part. I think NI is more keen to join the republic than take whatever damage comes from Brexit/a hard ROI border. But that's over time.

....

Everything points to Northern Ireland not being keen on that at all. You have virtually every one of the 44 percent who voted leave and a good chunk of the remainers who wouldn't be keen on that. The leave areas are also generally further from the border.

 
People lile Boris's 'guru' saying the y2k bug is nothing should be banned from using computers.

It's only because of massive efforts that nothing major happened.

FYI I just found a millennium bug in a major international risk assessment model. It uses 20th century data to do 21st century assessments so it thinks it's a day earlier or later than it really is.
Seems like no one noticed it, or kept their mouths shut because it is too much hassle to fix and currently underestimates risk (slightly) in almost all scenarios. Fortunately the model is conservative as hell, or we'd be in the shit.

I also assume guru is meant in the sense that he is completely disconnected from reality and ensnares rich fools into trusting their spurious ideological bullshit.
 
A united Ireland is a pipe dream. Peace was only 20 years ago - it's still too soon. The wounds are still fresh, the rhetoric can still be ramped up at the drop of a slogan.

The best possible thing to do - if you want a united Ireland - is to wait. Do not antagonise, do not inflame. Appreciate the peace - we take it for granted, but it was hard fought. As with Scottish independence, wait for the demographic shifts to take effect. Learn from Scotland and Quebec: pushing too hard too soon doesn't work.
 

Theonik

Member
I did say it's not a now question. Let brexit set in and a land border with NI and let's see where things stand in 10-20 years time.
 
Brexit border chaos will cause huge delays and cost £1bn a year, says report

Britain will be hit by huge border delays, require vast lorry parks in the south-east, and suffer more than £1bn a year in economic damage, according to a stark economic analysis of the likely impact of customs checks after Brexit.

”We estimate the impact of such a scenario to be at least £1bn per year. This is an extremely conservative estimate – it does not account for the economic costs of the uncertainty involved, the extra staff needed (for hauliers, ports and customs officials), the congestion associated with calling Operation Stack [which sees the M20 used as a makeshift lorry park], the land required for the additional customs checks [in the form of lorry parks], or of the wider economic impacts of jobs moving overseas due to uncertainty over the operation of just-in-time logistics. The full cost is likely to be much higher."
 
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