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[Carter Burke]

Sony believes

In generations.

 

[Luminoth-4545]

Seems a lot of context is missing because PS5 will likely either match or exceed PS4's lifetime sales. Even PSP and PS3 sold over 80 million and their peak fiscal years were only 14.1 million and 14.3 million respectively.

* One quarter remaining, projected to ship 18 to 19 million for the full year.

 

[Bonsaibäumchen]

Seems a lot of context is missing because PS5 will likely either match or exceed PS4's lifetime sales. Even PSP and PS3 sold over 80 million and their peak fiscal years were only 14.1 million and 14.3 million respectively.

* One quarter remaining, projected to ship 18 to 19 million for the full year.

PS2 was such a beast. Everytime I see these numbers I am amazed how well that one was selling.
PS2 was the perfect storm, quite the low price and easy to mod to run pirated games.

 

[EN250]

How is it compared to previous systems?

60 million systems in 4 years seems like a lot, but maybe it's something they're used to do and covid pandemic just screwed my perception of time

 

[West Texas CEO]

It's not long now until the PS5 surpasses the Switch in sales.

 

[mckmas8808]

Just wanna add on to this, Henderson's been super reliable so far & the most recent thing he's been right on is the exact date the PS5 Discord update was gonna drop, he said it would drop on March 8th back in August of last year which is how I knew beforehand. Also said back in late November, that the first Modern Warfare 2 multiplayer free weekend was gonna start on Dec 15th, which it did.

Sony's FY23: April 1st, 2023 - March 31st, 2024

Sources - Sony to Ship 30 Million PlayStation 5's in FY23

Sony is aiming to ship 30 million PlayStation 5 consoles in Fiscal Year 23 (March 2023 - March 2024), sources have said.

insider-gaming.com

This guy has been on point!

 

[yurinka]

edit: nevermind

 

[SeraphJan]

Non-portable console is pretty good for that goal (even though 60m is too conservative), especially it has both PC gaming and Xbox series to share its targeted market. Comparing sales number with Switch is not a good comparison because it had no direct competition (Steam deck is not a direct competitor due to its low supply and it what it market towards), Nintendo is smart to merge their home console line with their portable line (don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting Sony to do the same, when it comes to portable device, Nintendo have more experience of how to do it right).

I think Sony should continue to focus on popularize VR, that's what makes the platform attractive and unique compare to its competitor. PSVR 2 is more than just a standard peripheral, both in terms of its own ecosystem and its pricing, it would also be fair to count the amount of VR unit sold too.

My prediction would be 100 million-ish life time Console unit sold + another 30 million-ish life time VR2 unit sold, that would be great success!

IMO, a perfect scenario would be Nintendo - Portability, Sony - VR, Microsoft - Service, everyone have something unique to bring to the table instead of overlapping, its best for gamer

 

[SeraphJan]

It's not long now until the PS5 surpasses the Switch in sales.

Non portable console surpassing Switch would be unlikely consider how portable/mobile gaming is the trend. Especially 9th gen home console didn't have a good start due to pandemic and shortage.

Plus there are too many overlapping between home consoles and PC gaming nowadays (this isn't like the 90s where PC has its on exclusive ecosystem, 90% of the games are multiplatform now), many PC gamer would still buy a Switch as a companion device, but not a home console.

 

[EverydayBeast]

Sony is all in on games

 

[yurinka]

It's not long now until the PS5 surpasses the Switch in sales

Non portable console surpassing Switch would be unlikely consider how portable/mobile gaming is the trend. Especially 9th gen home console didn't have a good start due to pandemic and shortage

The 60M PS5 sold before April 2024 estimation of both the interviewer and the Sony president means that PS5 will be outselling Switch launch aligned before April 2024. If it didn't before was due to the chips shortages supply issues that now are solved.

If as they expect PS5 sells 19M in the current FY and 22M in the next one, by April of 2025 (end of its 4th FY) PS5 would be at 60.3M. When PS4 was at 60.2M at that point (fastest selling PS console ever at that moment), and Switch was at 55.77M at that point. Wii would be the only console selling faster after its first 4 fiscal years due to its crazy 3rd FY peak.

 

[SeraphJan]

The 60M PS5 sold before April 2024 estimation of both the interviewer and the Sony president means that PS5 will be outselling Switch launch aligned before April 2024. If it didn't before was due to the chips shortages supply issues that now are solved.

I'm actually more interested in how PSVR 2 will perform in the future, if this thing could surpass 30m or even 40m, it would greatly help VR gaming to become mainstream

 

[yurinka]

I'm actually more interested in how PSVR 2 will perform in the future, if this thing could surpass 30m or even 40m, it would greatly help VR gaming to become mainstream

They expect PSVR2 to perform better than PSVR1 (which sold 5M+, and they were happy with it), but don't expect it to become mainstream. I assume they expect PSVR2 to sell somewhere in the 5-10M range, that would be realistic considering it will get some popular AAA brands more than PSVR1, that they fixed or improved many issues that PSVR1 had and that PSVR2 is a bit cheaper than the complete PSVR1 kit needed was back when released.

As market an technology, VR still is on its infancy, getting bought by early adopters at an expensive price. I think it won't go mainstream until at least PSVR3 or more realistically PSVR4, once its price decreases significantly, once devs finally manage the type of games and the game design this stuff needs, once things like controls are really improved and intuitive (like the headset cameras tracking your body, legs, arms and fingers, so no controllers needed), gets a wireless connection (maybe even with games streamed from the cloud not needing the console), gets a major 3rd party support, and the headset becomes really light and doesn't cause any dizziness/nausea/etc.

My prediction would be 100 million-ish life time Console unit sold + another 30 million-ish life time VR2 unit sold, that would be great success!

Due to the chips shortages, Sony almost stopped shipping PS4s months before PS5 launch and it sold almost 120M until now. Even due to being affected by the chips shortages, this FY PS5 will outsell launch aligned PS4 and pretty likely won't suffer another chips shortage.

I think some Sony movies and tv show adaptations will flop but a few of them will be big successes as TLOU and Uncharted, helping them to grow their fanbase and console userbase a bit. I also think that their PC ports, mobile gaming adaptations and cloud gaming in mobile will help them grow their fanbase and console userbase a bit.

That, mixed with the fact that already around 30% of the PS5 users didn't have a PS4, and that PS is increasing their market share over XB, lead us to think may end selling even 140-150M or more, possibly even outselling PS2 and DS.

IMO, a perfect scenario would be Nintendo - Portability, Sony - VR, Microsoft - Service, everyone have something unique to bring to the table instead of overlapping, its best for gamer

Regarding Nintendo, Switch replaced PSP and Vita in the 'indie portable machine' or 'high end portable to play home console like games' role. I think PC portables like Steamdeck are going to steal that role, so Switch 2 will focus more on Nintendo + moneyhatted 3rd party exclusives again, which wil cause Switch 2 not being as successful as Switch because part of its portables market share will go to PC portables and part of the 3rd party home console market share will move to PS5 once some people realizes that again the won't get major AAA 3rd party support due to limited hardware specs.

Regarding services, I expect PS Plus to continue outperforming GP but maybe not in the current 2:1 userbase ratio, but slightly less. I expect Sony to continue getting way more revenue and specially in profits. Since GP will highly hurt Xbox game sales and the GP revenue won't be enough to compensate it, specially being not profitable as the game sales for console are, I expect MS to continue transitioning to fully becoming multiplatform 3rd party game publisher and service provider during this generation. I think the next generation -and who knows if even the current one- will be the last one for MS made XB hardware, while PS and Nintendo will continue having their own dedicated console hardware.

 

[SeraphJan]

Steamdeck are going to steal that role

Steamdeck is a fantastic device, if valve truly push it I guess it would, but that's not what's happening, their marketing is not aggressive enough, the supply is also not enough. I don't think they even hit 2m until now, Switch successor would still likely to dominate portable market.

will be the last one for MS made XB hardware

That would be a bad thing, we need more competition in the space, I certain hope they continue

 

[EN250]

They didn't mention it but as a reference in this fourth FY of the console PS1 did sell 21M+`and PS2 did sell 22M+. And having sold 'over 60M' would mean that at that April 2024 point PS6 would be the fastest selling PS console ever, even above the record being hold by PS4. That would mean PS5 would be launch aligned outselling Switch by March 2024 (or maybe earlier).

Ok, I knew they weren't talking about 60 millions be the number for the whole gen, and this quote is what I was looking for, sales compared to previous systems, so thx for the answer

 

[vivftp]

Sony mentioning they expect 60M+ by the end of March 2024 means Sony expects to sell 22M this FY that will start in a couple weeks, not 30M. Meaning Tom Henderson was lying (again) and Sony debunked that 'rumor'.

Incorrect. Sony has only said they expect to surpass the PS4 sales curve, and that 22 million is what's needed. They haven't given their actual projection for the next FY yet. Tom Hendersons rumor relates to what their projection is. We won't get that officially until the end of April or so, so nothing has been debunked

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

The Morgan Stanley event interviewer meant 'over 60M' consoles sold until the end of the next fiscal year (before April 2024), not until the end of the console lifetime, which in case of Sony traditionally is 10+ years after its release.

Meaning, that in addition to achieve their 19M estimation for the current FY Sony would sell 22M (or more) consoles during the next fiscal year. The Morgan Stanley interviewer said that this next 4th fiscal year is typically where a console peaks in hardware sales, while they often peak in software sales during the 5th.

The Sony president agreed, he thinks they'll achieve that and also reminded that PS consoles normally sell above 100M as it has been the case of PS4.

They didn't mention it but as a reference in this fourth FY of the console PS1 did sell 21M+`and PS2 did sell 22M+. And having sold 'over 60M' would mean that at that April 2024 point PS5 would be the fastest selling PS console ever, even above the record being hold by PS4. That would mean PS5 would be launch aligned outselling Switch by March 2024 (or maybe earlier).

So no, they weren't traumatized by Vita and 360, PS3 or PSP didn't outperform that.




As I remember in one of the regulators document, not sure if it was Sony, MS or ABK implied that the first CoD that would be released on PS6 would be the 2028 one, meaning they estimate PS6 to release late 2027 or early 2028, pretty much. In line with the same difference of almost exacty 7 year between that and the previous console release than the one we saw in previous cases lilke PS5 vs PS4 or PS4 vs PS3.

So no, to sell 60M+ on their first 4 fiscal years alone doesn't imply they'd have a shorter lifetime. If something it would be the opposite.


I assume from PC, Switch and mostly XBO.





Sony mentioning they expect 60M+ by the end of March 2024 means Sony expects to sell 22M this FY that will start in a couple weeks, not 30M. Meaning Tom Henderson was lying (again) and Sony debunked that 'rumor'.

Not sure why you quoted me, I wasn't talking about LTD.

 

[Luminoth-4545]

How is it compared to previous systems?

60 million systems in 4 years seems like a lot, but maybe it's something they're used to do and covid pandemic just screwed my perception of time

It's not four years, it is 3 years and 4 months. So the launch up until 31st March then the three full years after. I posted the Playstation numbers a few posts above and here are the Nintendo system numbers for comparison, from InstallBase i got yearly numbers going back to 1985. If PS5 can ship 60 million by the end of it's third full FY that would compare to 51.40 million for GBA, 55.77 million for Switch, 70.60 million for DS and 70.94 million for Wii.

* One quarter remaining, projected to ship 18 million for the full year

 

[onQ123]

It's not long now until the PS5 surpasses the Switch in sales.

I don't see that happening unless PS5 somehow end up a portable or a TV box

 

[THE DUCK]

That was not criticising waiting for rebuttals and a discussion, which you ignored, but throwing gasoline on the fire trying to upset other people and getting yourself a laugh. It was a longer form drive by.

What rebuttals/dicussion? Insults and "witty" pictures sent by immature posters? Revisionist history you have there.

 

[yurinka]

I don't see that happening unless PS5 somehow end up a portable or a TV box

It will happen in less than a year (in launch aligned sales).

 

[coffinbirth]

Plot twist...

PS6 is a LOT closer than we think.

I don't actually believe this

 

[yurinka]

Incorrect. Sony has only said they expect to surpass the PS4 sales curve, and that 22 million is what's needed. They haven't given their actual projection for the next FY yet. Tom Hendersons rumor relates to what their projection is. We won't get that officially until the end of April or so, so nothing has been debunked

It is not incorrect: in the OP you have an interview where the Sony president talks about the 60M estimate even if as company they didn't publicly mentioned it.

Steamdeck is a fantastic device, if valve truly push it I guess it would, but that's not what's happening, their marketing is not aggressive enough, the supply is also not enough. I don't think they even hit 2m until now, Switch successor would still likely to dominate portable market.

That would be a bad thing, we need more competition in the space, I certain hope they continue

Now that the list of officially supported games is getting bigger and bigger and that 3rd parties by default now prepare the games for it, I think that their next step will be first to manage to scale up their production and also to manage to decrease its pricing (in this or more likely, in the next Steamdeck gen) to make it more appealing for the mainstream market.

I think the PC portables are still on its infancy and will take a few years to become something meaningful. But I see a ton of potential there.

 

[onQ123]

It will happen in less than a year (in launch aligned sales).

Thought you or whoever was talking about PS5 actually out selling Switch , Switch will most likely end above 175 million

 

[Panajev2001a]

What rebuttals/dicussion? Insults and "witty" pictures sent by immature posters? Revisionist history you have there.

You never replied on the matter to me for example. Not sure what you are looking for… but I still do not see a genuine discussion you are trying to have more than trying to light a fire and seeing it spread.

 

[yurinka]

Thought you or whoever was talking about PS5 actually out selling Switch , Switch will most likely end above 175 million

It's still too early to make a decent estimation of their total sales at the end of the generation. But no, Switch won't even be close to 175M. The yearly sales of all consoles make a curve, and Switch already passed its peak, which (due to covid lockdowns and not being affected by chip shortages) was a year later than expected even by Nintendo.

This is how their fiscal years hardware sales curve looked before Nintendo lowered their estimation for the current FY from 21M shown in the image to 18M:

The decrease accelerates once they release the successor. I think Switch will end with numbers relatively close to PS2 and DS but still several millions under them. I think PS5 will end outselling PS2 and DS by a little.

 

[onQ123]

It's still too early to make a decent estimation of their total sales at the end of the generation. But no, Switch won't even be close to 175M. The yearly sales of all consoles make a curve, and Switch already passed its peak, which (due to covid lockdowns and not being affected by chip shortages) was a year later than expected even by Nintendo.

This is how their fiscal years hardware sales curve looked before Nintendo lowered their estimation for the current FY to 19M:

The decrease accelerates once they release the successor. I think Switch will end with numbers close to PS2 and DS. I think PS5 will end outselling all 3 by a little.

They at 122M now (Most likely 125m as we speak ) with at least 2 good years left in them even with a new console that will take them into the 160M range & they she be able to creep up to 175m over the next few years

 

[vivftp]

It is not incorrect: in the OP you have an interview where the Sony president talks about the 60M estimate even if as company they didn't publicly mentioned it.

I suggest listening to the original audio that the article cited, here's the URL

https://event.webcasts.com/viewer/event.jsp?ei=1598935&tp_key=014524bf74

Skip to 10:00 for the earlier question, then around 12:00 for the one related to what we're talking about. The earlier question, they asked about Sonys gaming goals for the next fiscal year. Then in the next question for the one related to this subject, the person from Morgan Stanley said that they believe that Sony can hit more or around 60 million units and they asked the Sony President what their expectations are and if they expect to exceed an incremental 60 million units. That's when the Sony President gave the quote in the OP. They were simply responding to the question of hitting or exceeding 60 million units in the upcoming period.

So again, this was not the Sony President giving out their official projections for the next fiscal year. There hasn't been any actual information to contradict Tom Hendersons rumor yet, and we won't get any official word on that for about another 1.5 months when Sony gives their official projections. At that time if Sony gives us a very different number then we can say Tom was wrong, or if they give us the same or a very close number then we can say his info was reliable.

 

[THE DUCK]

You never replied on the matter to me for example. Not sure what you are looking for… but I still do not see a genuine discussion you are trying to have more than trying to light a fire and seeing it spread.

I didn't even see it, but as I see it now you missed it completely and probably didn't deserve a reply anyhow, but lets try.

"About two years of manufacturing constraints / shortages (on top of a global pandemic) and a recession as well as higher console ASP’s (PS4 launched at $399)… continue mocking others for being clever from your throne of PS5’s ( … sure), fill your boots…"

My whole point was that it was a spin on the lower number, and that they had it won (this generation) already and were doing amazing anyhow, but that apparently eluded you. I don't see much in the way of substance, really just more overreactive posts at the mere suggestion that Sony could do anything even remotely wrong. I mean seriously, some people on this board are ridiculous. Can't even say the idea that they might do press spin without being attacked, pretty sad.

 

[Panajev2001a]

I didn't even see it, but as I see it now you missed it completely and probably didn't deserve a reply anyhow, but lets try.

"About two years of manufacturing constraints / shortages (on top of a global pandemic) and a recession as well as higher console ASP’s (PS4 launched at $399)… continue mocking others for being clever from your throne of PS5’s ( … sure), fill your boots…"

My whole point was that it was a spin on the lower number, and that they had it won (this generation) already and were doing amazing anyhow, but that apparently eluded you. I don't see much in the way of substance, really just more overreactive posts at the mere suggestion that Sony could do anything even remotely wrong. I mean seriously, some people on this board are ridiculous. Can't even say the idea that they might do press spin without being attacked, pretty sad.

Ok fine, bye. Keep staying on your high horse while trying to troll threads.

 

[THE DUCK]

Ok fine, bye. Keep staying on your high horse while trying to troll threads.

That's pathetic, to comment on what Sony said regarding sales, you disagree so you call it a "troll". There's no high horse here other than one you are falling off now.
Imagine having a forum full of people with different views instead of just yours.

 

[yurinka]

I suggest listening to the original audio that the article cited, here's the URL

https://event.webcasts.com/viewer/event.jsp?ei=1598935&tp_key=014524bf74

Skip to 10:00 for the earlier question, then around 12:00 for the one related to what we're talking about. The earlier question, they asked about Sonys gaming goals for the next fiscal year. Then in the next question for the one related to this subject, the person from Morgan Stanley said that they believe that Sony can hit more or around 60 million units and they asked the Sony President what their expectations are and if they expect to exceed an incremental 60 million units. That's when the Sony President gave the quote in the OP. They were simply responding to the question of hitting or exceeding 60 million units in the upcoming period.

So again, this was not the Sony President giving out their official projections for the next fiscal year. There hasn't been any actual information to contradict Tom Hendersons rumor yet, and we won't get any official word on that for about another 1.5 months when Sony gives their official projections. At that time if Sony gives us a very different number then we can say Tom was wrong, or if they give us the same or a very close number then we can say his info was reliable.

Yes, in the previous question asks about in which areas are they going to invest more compared to the previous president and he replies that in game, pictures and music mostly. Then ask regarding gaming if they expect with PS5 to catch up user demand during next fiscal year since they solved the supply issues and he says that yes since they solved the components and shipping logistics that temporally blocked that, so they are confident that they'll catch up in next fiscal year.

Then he ask if that means they plan to achieve 60M going forward (meaning, to catch up user demand during this FY, which would put it at aprox. PS4 launch aligned levels) based on that they have over 100M MAU and that most of these users still have to migrate to PS5. The Sony president says that yes, that he's confident that they'll exceed 60M because they have an extremely loyal userbase on PS4 (where they sold over 100M consoles) that will keep migrating to PS5 and that on top of that around 30% of the PS5 users didn't have a PS4.

Then they talk about the future since hardware sales typically peak in the 4th fiscal year and software sales in 5th fiscal year even if here the Sony guy agrees doesn't want to go specific with predictions.

The Sony guy isn't the one who mentioned the 60M+ estimate, it was the interviewer. But the Sony guy agreed that and said they are confident to achieve it, but without obviously not revealing their internal estimates, which as you mention will be publicly announced in the fiscal report you mention and from now until then may be updated.

That number isn't a random one: it's very similar to what PS1 and PS2 achieved that FY (launch aligned) and also what PS5 would need to catch up PS4 launch aligned, and also would continue the hardware sales yearly growth mentioned to peak on their 4th year. So maybe Sony doesn't achive or estimate 19M this FY+ 22M the next one exactly, but should be something like that (combined 41M or slightly above it).

 

[vivftp]

Yes, in the previous question asks about in which areas are they going to invest more compared to the previous president and he replies that in game, pictures and music mostly. Then ask regarding gaming if they expect with PS5 to catch up user demand during next fiscal year since they solved the supply issues and he says that yes since they solved the components and shipping logistics that temporally blocked that, so they are confident that they'll catch up in next fiscal year.

Then he ask if that means they plan to achieve 60M going forward (meaning, to catch up user demand during this FY, which would put it at aprox. PS4 launch aligned levels) based on that they have over 100M MAU and that most of these users still have to migrate to PS5. The Sony president says that yes, that he's confident that they'll exceed 60M because they have an extremely loyal userbase on PS4 (where they sold over 100M consoles) that will keep migrating to PS5 and that on top of that around 30% of the PS5 users didn't have a PS4.

Then they talk about the future since hardware sales typically peak in the 4th fiscal year and software sales in 5th fiscal year even if here the Sony guy agrees doesn't want to go specific with predictions.

The Sony guy isn't the one who mentioned the 60M+ estimate, it was the interviewer. But the Sony guy agreed that and said they are confident to achieve it, but without obviously not revealing their internal estimates, which as you mention will be publicly announced in the fiscal report you mention and from now until then may be updated.

That number isn't a random one: it's very similar to what PS1 and PS2 achieved that FY (launch aligned) and also what PS5 would need to catch up PS4 launch aligned, and also would continue the hardware sales yearly growth mentioned to peak on their 4th year. So maybe Sony doesn't achive or estimate 19M this FY+ 22M the next one exactly, but should be something like that (combined 41M or slightly above it).

lol, well all will be revealed in 6 weeks. See ya then!

 

[flying_sq]

The PS5 is going on 4 years? Holy shit, it feels like it came out last year.

 

[mckmas8808]

I don't see that happening unless PS5 somehow end up a portable or a TV box

It'll happen if Sony allows the PS5 to hit $299 by late 2024.

 

[onQ123]

It'll happen if Sony allows the PS5 to hit $299 by late 2024.

That would depend on how Switch sales fall off . Switch seems to have a lot of life left in it like some random new game could come out & pick the sales up again .


But yeah if the 30 million in a year is true things could get crazy with PS5

 

[onQ123]

The PS5 is going on 4 years? Holy shit, it feels like it came out last year.

It's going on 3 years

November 12, 2020

right now it's only been out 2 years & 4 months