phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
No surprises there. They all do it. Not going to hate on someone for claiming victory from a victory. Might have been some mileage in this if Labour had a reduced majority, but they didn't.
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UK PoliGAF thread of tell me about the rabbits again, Dave.
- Thread starter Chinner
- Start date
No surprises there. They all do it. Not going to hate on someone for claiming victory from a victory. Might have been some mileage in this if Labour had a reduced majority, but they didn't.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
From our US branch we were hearing that the government would suspend normal activity to make sure debt and interest was paid on time, even if there was a government shutdown they were still telling banks they would be paid on time.
Well from what we have heard the government is willing to settle for unanimity on FinReg and getting Barnier (who is pretty hostile) out in favour of a Brit, these are the two most lamentable failings of the Brown government when it comes to the EU. How he could let QMV and through and not get the commissioner post for Britain is beyond me, that is extremely poor negotiation. I don't think opting out of regulations was every really on the table. Unanimity is what Britain will settle for, that is the only way the treaty gets opened up. I'm not sure Dave wants to rock the CAP boat (relations with France are already at an all time low), but CFP could be up for discussion. Both should go IMO, they are a relic of a bygone era, if governments want to subsidise their agriculture sectors then they can do so with their own monies, not common money which should be spent on development and research grants. I wouldn't be such a fatalist about our EU position, the road is a long one. This treaty will get signed in 2015-17 and it will be radically different to the one currently up for discussion. I would love to see it remove the CAP, but unless we are willing to step up and pour in £300-400bn I don't see it happening, France will just go for the LC (which they denied to us over FinReg despite the City being more of a vital industry to us than agriculture is to them) and stall talks.
The problem is that the state sector is also overburdened with debt. Hence the debt bubble. So the state can ill afford to borrow more and spend more to pump prime (we are doing so anyway), the private sector can ill afford to borrow (the real reason net lending has decreased), and households are already struggling under the weight of previously accrued debts. Everyone is trying to deleverage at the same time, ergo poor growth. It's such a shame that Brown didn't run a true Keynesian policy and actually maintain a real surplus from 2002-2007. All that tax money from the debt bubble should have been set aside so that the government could afford to run a loose fiscal position to help the private sector deleverage without too much pain. Nothing we can do about it now though...
But to call this a "vote of confidence in Labour" across the UK, when in reality they lost more than 8000 votes, mainly due to the terrible turnout, seems odd.
Its incredibly tacky for French leaders to be openly suggesting that the United Kingdom should get be downgraded before themselves. I happen to agree that the UK deserves a downgrade but its hardly an example of respectable diplomacy on the part of the French.
Besides, the idea that anyone takes any of the ratings agencies seriously after the US Housing mortgage crisis is laughable. I will never, ever take the ratings agencies seriously. It boggles the mind as to why anyone else listens to them either.
Besides, the idea that anyone takes any of the ratings agencies seriously after the US Housing mortgage crisis is laughable. I will never, ever take the ratings agencies seriously. It boggles the mind as to why anyone else listens to them either.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Good news - this result keeps EdM in position! I imagine there were a few champagne corks flying at Millbank last night. In 2015 people are going to head to the polls and think, do I really want EdM to be Prime Minister? Dave isn't so bad really (votes Con).
Dark Machine
Member
God I really wish we had proportional representation. Then I wouldn't have to choose between a bankers best mate and an incompetent privately educated champagne-socialist.
I'd vote Green. I agree with most of what they say.
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
OK, so if we were to have a GAF-government I guess that puts zomg as Chancellor, you as Environment Minister and I guess Meadows as Chief Whip?
Any more takers?
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Chinner for PM.
SmokyDave for Health Secretary?
zomgbbqftw
Banned
I just heard from one of our delegation that France and a bunch of Euro nations are going to be downgraded after the closing bell tonight. Announcement to come at 5pm Eastern, so 10pm UK. Should be just before I wake up, so if it does happen I might make a thread about it.
Anyway, that's where the acrimony is coming from. We keep our AAA, they don't and they hate us for it. Idiots.
"France's plight was underlined by new figures from the Bank of England which showed Britain's banks slashing their exposure to French public debt by $29.3 billion (£18.9 billion) between July and September.
The exodus from France accounted for almost half the $62.4 billion British banks shaved from their financial exposure to the rest of the world in the third quarter, when Europe's sovereign debt crisis entered a dangerous new phase.
UK banks also pulled a combined $20 billion out of Spain and Italy and instead sought the safety of ultra-safe German bunds, piling some $40.3 billion into Germany and $21.1 billion into the Netherlands."
Anyway, that's where the acrimony is coming from. We keep our AAA, they don't and they hate us for it. Idiots.
"France's plight was underlined by new figures from the Bank of England which showed Britain's banks slashing their exposure to French public debt by $29.3 billion (£18.9 billion) between July and September.
The exodus from France accounted for almost half the $62.4 billion British banks shaved from their financial exposure to the rest of the world in the third quarter, when Europe's sovereign debt crisis entered a dangerous new phase.
UK banks also pulled a combined $20 billion out of Spain and Italy and instead sought the safety of ultra-safe German bunds, piling some $40.3 billion into Germany and $21.1 billion into the Netherlands."
When was the last time a by-election had a higher turnout than a general election?
They increased their majority, 11% higher share of votes versus -6% for Tories and -8% for Lib Dems. If it wasn't a vote of confidence in Labour then it was certainly a vote of the opposite for Con/Dem.
Can I negotiate stuff?
only if you promise not to chase merkel along the street screaming 'fine we'll do it' when you know for sure she's reached her limit.
Ha ha.
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Foreign Secretary maybe? Prefer you to be inside and pissing outwards, as it were.
CHEEZMO™;33510193 said:
Sorry, that's way out of scope. I know they call us kingmakers but that's not to be taken literally. Best I can do is Governor-General of the Falklands. Nice uniform, bloody cold.
J Tourettes
Banned
I'll settle for deputy Prime Minister as it seems more like a vanity title than anything else and I won't be expected to do much. If not, the Mayor of London will have to do.
Solid points, however I don't think unanimity is going to be given to us, it's basically allowing a veto which was the whole point of QMV. They won't budge on this, it would grossly against their own interest to do so. We can switch the commissioner around. I see that as easily achievable. Brown lost all his principles and followed Greenspan's vision to the letter, that is what is truly shameful.
The idea that government's are grossly over-leveraged is currently in vogue for the market. No one is actually being rational. Confidence is what underpins everything and it's fickle. Ultimately we are likely to follow the same pattern as Japan, Koo's time-series are so ridiculously co-integrated it's scary. Private sector de-leveraging will occur for another 10 or so years at least (it only ended in Japan in the mid-2000s), we have made no provision to help financial institutions gently write off non-performing loans over a long enough period (10-15yrs).
Z
ZombieFred
Unconfirmed Member
Oh my god, christmas has come early!
You can tell it isn't going to be a happy, optimistic programme from the title, heh. But it makes some good points I thought, especially about the German's 'Mittelstand', and challenges for making our own.
It's quite amusing to think how times have changed. QMV was secured under the initiative of Margaret Thatcher and was a great success at the time, now it is a thorn for the current conservative government (real or imagined!).
Not really, maybe a tiny bit better as a whole at the moment but future prospects look very grim compared to the UK where the austerity measures which have been running for a while look to be working (albeit slowly) the french banks are on the brink of failure and have little chance of weathering any further collapse in a euro country. There is little confidence in the french market at the moment hence the threat to the rating, the only country raising doubts about the UK is france who are desperate to divert attention.
Despite a large debt (but with some great rates) there is still a great deal of confidence in the UK from financiers as a whole.
lol. the mail's how dare he speak languages and be well travelled list looks especially dumb now.
Ill clarify that the French economy is in a better situation than the UK economy at this snapshot in time (i.e. shorter than "short-term") but your absolutely right that the outlook for France is worse than the UK.
Clay Davis
Member
why ireland? i thought their recovery was going well.
lol. the mail's how dare he speak languages and be well travelled list looks especially dumb now.
Why am I not surprised.
Guerrillas in the Mist
Member
So I get to live rent-free on taxpayer's money while not being very good at my advertised role?
Oh, sorry, I thought you were talking about becoming a Cabinet Minister.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Server problems. S&P are out for the count until Sunday evening. They are unlikely to downgrade important sovereign nations while the markets are still open on Monday morning, so Monday evening is the likely date.
Even then the two notch downgrade of Belgium and Fitch (of all agencies) putting France on negative watch are still pretty important, though the first more so. Belgium has been without any real government for 15 months now and their debt to GDP is getting well out of control and their deficit is not coming in. Now with the extra pressure of having to bail out Dexia (which the French should be doing, their bloody France based bank is where it all went wrong) as well as having to close a 5% deficit I would not be surprised to see Belgium go the way of Ireland.
On Ireland. They have done everything right, but with the EU going to the wall there is nothing they can do about it. If Europeans don't want to do business there is little they can do about it. The best thing for Ireland to do (IMO) is to fuck the investors and default on the banking debts and tell the German banks to fuck off. I mean when the US housing market went tits up, it wasn't the US government that bailed out RBS, it was the ours to the tune of £45bn. The Irish housing bubble bursting is an Irish problem, but the German banks who invested in it (like RBS did in the US housing market) aren't owed anything. The Irish government should have had the balls to say enough is enough back in 2010 and just removed the banking guarantees and liquidated it all and protected savings of up to 1m per account or something like that. A painful move, but at least they wouldn't be shackled with a 60bn guarantee that will take 20 years to pay off.
The saving grace of the RBS buyout is that under government ownership RBS can restructure and dispose of their risky assets with the protection that the British government brings and then come out of the other side much stronger and hopefully be sold for at least the amount it was purchased for. In Ireland no such protection is available for state owned banks, Ireland's economy isn't large enough to take a massive hit like AIB, at least in the UK we have the ability to take on these risky banks and the whole economy doesn't pay for it like Ireland. I really feel sorry for the Irish, when Brian Cohen and Brian Lenihan played a shocker when they guaranteed their banks like we did in the UK for RBS and HBOS. They should have just let them fail and picked up the (very sharp, admittedly) pieces. That would have shifted the burden of their failed housing bubble onto the German (and UK to some degree) banks and Germany who would have been able to stomach bank recapitalisations of 60bn quite easily.
Am I right to be cynical of this? I don't mean to critique the bank's saleability. But why can't the bank just be independent again? Its more healthy to have more banks then have fewer banks surely?
RBS can make money. A lot of money, they can achieve an NII of 200-220bps. However we will not make a profit on it only if we sell for ideological reasons, if we follow the path set we can privatise possibly at a profit. Bear on mind it would be beneficial to break it up and privatise the parts.
Has anyone actually ever been to the Falklands? Ever since listening to The Final Cut (Pink Floyd) I've wanted to see what our country fought over all those years ago.
Dark Machine
Member
From the pictures I've seen, going to the Yorkshire Dales or the Peak District in winter would give you a pretty good idea of what they're like. Cumbrian coast in winter looks similar too. Of course there's more water about, but apart from that they seem pretty serene and full of animals. Penguins live there.
