The Incarnation
Member
Double dip.
They'll probably blame the weather.
They'll probably blame the weather.
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UK PoliGAF thread of tell me about the rabbits again, Dave.
- Thread starter Chinner
- Start date
PJV3
Member
We shall never give it up, we will burn the NHS to the ground and eat our children before we give up this VITAL marker that nobody had heard of before 2008.
travisbickle
Member
I thought the idea was to pay public sector workers below minimum wage so that the private sector can compete?
Guerrillas in the Mist
Member
If Ed Miliband can't come out of this one as the clear winner, I don't see how he can be a credible party leader.
killer_clank
Member
Cameron's relaunch on Monday went well then.
Probably. If they can blame the royal wedding and tsunami, nice weather's a shoe in for hilarious economic excuses.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
I don't know what the ONS are doing but pretty much every major bank and financial institution around these parts are dumbfounded right now. This can't be right, it just can't be. The employment and PMI statistics (the former of which is theirs) points to Q1 growth of at least 0.3%, looking at the detail, total industrial output is down a massive 3% QoQ, which doesn't make sense since the last Index we got said there was a huge rise in oil and gas production, higher than manufacturing production (which is up slightly) and that hasn't been restated, so where did it all go?
Construction data is still a complete mess (and accounts for -0.2% worth of contraction), I suggest the ONS don't bother with preliminary construction data and only release final statistics when they have a better handle on the statistics. Of the last two quarters, construction has accounted for -0.4% contraction out of the total -0.5%, but there are a bunch of caveats we got today that basically said, that -0.4% over the past two quarters is still just the best estimate and will probably get restated down the line (probably to 0%) they just haven't really figured out how to do it so are erring on the side of caution.
Right now these figures don't make sense which is why the index isn't down and there has been no real movement in sovereign and corporate bond prices. With unemployment starting to come down it points to real economic growth, and with the March retail figures so strong (following a poor Feb, surprisingly enough) there just can't have been a contraction this quarter. It honestly doesn't make sense. At this point, if I were the Chancellor, I would sack the lot of them and move it from Newport to Manchester and hire out of the sciences rather than economics. The announcement of a recession that likely never happened will do profound damage to the economy, and as of now it rests entirely on the ONS.
Construction data is still a complete mess (and accounts for -0.2% worth of contraction), I suggest the ONS don't bother with preliminary construction data and only release final statistics when they have a better handle on the statistics. Of the last two quarters, construction has accounted for -0.4% contraction out of the total -0.5%, but there are a bunch of caveats we got today that basically said, that -0.4% over the past two quarters is still just the best estimate and will probably get restated down the line (probably to 0%) they just haven't really figured out how to do it so are erring on the side of caution.
Right now these figures don't make sense which is why the index isn't down and there has been no real movement in sovereign and corporate bond prices. With unemployment starting to come down it points to real economic growth, and with the March retail figures so strong (following a poor Feb, surprisingly enough) there just can't have been a contraction this quarter. It honestly doesn't make sense. At this point, if I were the Chancellor, I would sack the lot of them and move it from Newport to Manchester and hire out of the sciences rather than economics. The announcement of a recession that likely never happened will do profound damage to the economy, and as of now it rests entirely on the ONS.
killer_clank
Member
Trump at Holyrood going on about windfarms ruining his golf course is almost as good as Murdoch at Leveson.
I was shouted for saying this before. What do they have to say now??? The gov have to change direction on their economic plans, screw the aaa rating.
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Double dip baby! The sheer amount of retail fuckery this quarter has always made me skeptical about the unemployment numbers (those books are so cooked through sneaky training initiatives and more) and suggestions of growth that I guess all that non-London and construction industry caught up with the statistics. Even if theres a small discrepancy, theres nothing here to shout about as any kind of success story for the governments actions.
No "its Labours fault" for this one Davey! FUCKBLAMMO.
No "its Labours fault" for this one Davey! FUCKBLAMMO.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
The figures don't make sense. That's why the markets are unmoved, no big sell off. The policies haven't really made much difference to this anyway, in the figures, government services added 0.1% to growth. It's the production and construction figures that don't make sense, they don't add up with other ONS data, the production figures are very odd, I mean how can they say in Feb that oil and gas output grew by 2% MoM while also saying in the GDP release that it fell QoQ without having the March index ready. Their own index disagrees with their statistics. How can the economy have added jobs from Dec-Feb if the economy actually contracted, that kind of stuff happens very, very rarely.
Right now the ONS have a lot of questions to answer, either their previous data was wrong and about 6 months worth needs to be restated and revised, or the GDP figures are wrong and need to be restated and revised. Their own data conflicts with the GDP figures, that is why the markets haven't taken it seriously. If the ONS came out tomorrow and said that all of the Indices are to be revised downwards and unemployment upwards because of some errors then there would be serious movement in the markets as it would really mean Britain has entered a recession. As of now most here see it as a statistical anomaly which will probably get fixed about a year from now when the ONS go back on "historical data" and redo the sums. It happens pretty often, American banks don't trust ONS data for this reason and trust their own statistics, so do we, and our statistics say 0.3% growth for Q1 and -0.1% contraction for Q4.
To be honest in reference to the changes in unemployment figures, the changes in terms of percentage are so little they are almost of no relevance.
The government have been using steps to work / workfare schemes etc to cook the books for years now, when you start on one of those schemes you are signed off (although you are still paid by jobseekers allowance), also last minute temp jobs for xmas could also have an effect on the unemployment figures over the December period.
Since xmas a lot of businesses have closed down in my local area (Bangor, NI) which is quite a well to do area, the retail sector has most definitely shrunk over the past quarter, fuel costs are phenomenal, inflation is still with us.
If the economy is recovering according to yourself and others, well it is the worst economic recovery I have ever seen.
Well this is all a fair point, given the solid gold track record of banks on matters economic.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Well this is all a fair point, given the solid gold track record of banks on matters economic.
Thank's for playing the man and not the ball. If you have a problem with what I am saying then point it out, that I work for a bank (which actually didn't lose money on the sub-prime market) should have no bearing on what I say.
killer_clank
Member
Hunt is resigning apparently, according to the BBC ticker on the leveson inquiry.
EDIT
Ah, its his adviser, I misread, sorry.
EDIT
Ah, its his adviser, I misread, sorry.
Oh, I'm being flippant because I haven't got time to go into proper depth.
But, I mean, we're two years into the worse British recession (even in the non-technical sense it's difficult to call this anything but) in a century and the people responsible are still trying to shuck responsibility.
People have been saying this economic plan wouldn't work from the beginning, and all the data so far have indicated it hasn't. That would usually be a time to admit that you were wrong, but not in politics. Blame the weather, blame Japan, blame a wedding, when all else fails blame the data.
That's what makes the situation so goddamn miserable. The people in charge are in complete denial.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Adam Smith, Hunt's SpAd is resigning according to our source in the government. I would be surprised if Hunt went as well. Smith was supposed to resign at 11.30am.
Yup, statement released:
"While it was part of my role to keep News Corporation informed throughout the BskyB bid process, the content and extent of my contact was done without authorisation from the Secretary of State. I do not recognise all of what Fred Michel said, but nonetheless I appreciate that my activities at times went too far and have, taken together, created the perception that News Corporation had too close a relationship with the department, contrary to the clear requirements set out by Jeremy Hunt and the permanent secretary that this needed to be a fair and scrupulous process. Whilst I firmly believe that the process was in fact conducted scrupulously fairly, as a result of my activities it is only right for me to step down as special adviser to Jeremy Hunt."
PJV3
Member
He is just saying that banks/you/Cameron/Osborne are fallible.
there isn't any need to sack the ONS or pay northerners peanuts, just admit you are wrong about austerity.
I said last night Hunt would play the Advisor card, we all fucking know Hunt is a corrupt shit, and he knows we know. Cameron should sack the twat.
J Tourettes
Banned
Such a fucking joke. These two tweets sum it up pretty well:
JamesLyons
‏ @MirrorJames
Last night Hunt said his Spad had Perm Sec's permission to talk to News Corp. Today he is dumped for talking to them without Hunt's blessing
Tom Newton Dunn
‏ @tnewtondunn
No10 was insisting last night that Adam Smith would not go - source close to PM: "It would be a bit unfair to dump on him like that".
JamesLyons
‏ @MirrorJames
Last night Hunt said his Spad had Perm Sec's permission to talk to News Corp. Today he is dumped for talking to them without Hunt's blessing
Tom Newton Dunn
‏ @tnewtondunn
No10 was insisting last night that Adam Smith would not go - source close to PM: "It would be a bit unfair to dump on him like that".
What a disastrous few months for the government. Cameron really needs to get a strong political advisory team, improve public relations and communication and take control of the ship. His style so far has been hands off but when you have Teresa May and Andrew Lansley floating around the wheel you can't just sit back. As far as Im aware Cameron is still set to give evidence in the Leveson inquiry which is just going to be even more embarrassment.
By very nature this recession has been different from other recessions in that it is a balance sheet recession. Across the board, from government to firm to household, people have to pay down debt. As zomg says the data may be incorrect but I wouldn't be too surprised if it were accurate either. We will either be bouncing along the bottom or swimming just beneath the surface. Both are bad either however you want to spin it.
For my part Im very relieved that my pending degree is so employable.
By very nature this recession has been different from other recessions in that it is a balance sheet recession. Across the board, from government to firm to household, people have to pay down debt. As zomg says the data may be incorrect but I wouldn't be too surprised if it were accurate either. We will either be bouncing along the bottom or swimming just beneath the surface. Both are bad either however you want to spin it.
For my part Im very relieved that my pending degree is so employable.
The Incarnation
Member
It's not going to recover without job creation, more people on the dole means less money going to the high street, not to mention removing people on incapacity and putting them on Job seekers means even less money will be spent on the street.
Fewer jobs means fewer people buying fuel, which means fuel companies want to profit more, thus increased fuel costs, meaning even less money for people with jobs and cars to spend on the high street.
Add in other factors such as increasing rent, and you ultimately end up with a cycle of fuck.
Subliminal
Member
This week has been fantastic.. It's like all the news is happening at once.
Media Scandals, Double dipping, Immigration fuckups AND flooding!
my dick hurts!
Media Scandals, Double dipping, Immigration fuckups AND flooding!
my dick hurts!
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Oh I agree that everyone is fallible. I was pointing out that the reason the markets are unmoved is because of real inconsistencies in ONS data. The GDP figure doesn't match up with other data that they themselves have released. If they go back and revise the conflicting data then people will take them seriously, but until then, the recession is firmly in "statistical anomaly" for banks and markets.
I'm not going to stand here and pretend that the economic picture is great, or that the government is doing a great job, it isn't and they aren't. All I am saying is that ONS statistics are untrustworthy, either the Indices need to be revised or GDP does, they can't both say what they are saying and both be right.
Popcorn at the ready.
killer_clank
Member
Cameron must be shitting himself.
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
the "we give a shit about soldiers" segment always makes me flaccid to start. Get to the meat and I will see to mine.
Edit: Cameron's face is the grumpiest I have ever seen it. It stirs.
Edit: Cameron's face is the grumpiest I have ever seen it. It stirs.
Guerrillas in the Mist
Member
Ohhhhhhh yeahhhhhh...
Bigger exports, more investment? That would be a good idea.
Bigger exports, more investment? That would be a good idea.
killer_clank
Member
THE MESS THE LABOUR GOVERNMENT LEFT TWO WHOLE YEARS AGO CAUSED THIS RECESSION.
Guerrillas in the Mist
Member
Remember how there was some economic recovery in 2010? The Tories don't.
He mentioned Interest Rates about 10 times.
killer_clank
Member
god, he actually did blame labour there.
Guerrillas in the Mist
Member
What else can he do? He can't say the truth, that the coalition government's measures caused the drop in growth.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
We haven't got it on here, how did Ed do on the economy, surely a win? It was a day that he can't lose. I mean, I can point out statistical anomalies in expectations of an upwards revision, but the PM can't very well say that.
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Its a double fucking. The tired "Labour did it!" excuse rolled out, and now he's dragging his heels on kicking Hunt out. Its glorious. Ed's dick is monstrous right now.
killer_clank
Member
clegg looks like he's just thinking "FUCK THIS"
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Oh dear, don't tell me Ed flunked it again. The economy is much more important than Hunt. The media will get Hunt anyway, why bother wasting questions on it when the economy and the 2.5m unemployed people are the most important issue in this country.
killer_clank
Member
ed didn't even have to mention Jeremy Cunt.
No idea why he is looking smug. He will be out of the door soon.
that lincoln mp's tie should be a resigning issue
he always looks like he's suppressing tears these days
he always looks like he's suppressing tears these days
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
I love all the cronies coming forward bizarrely asking for more apprenticeships and graduates. I'm not sure theyre aware of what this government did to tuition fee's?
zomgbbqftw
Banned
I just read that he had only two questions on the economy and four (FOUR!) on Hunt? Is this true?!?!
Fucking idiot. I hate the government but the opposition are fucking useless. On the day that, officially at least, Britain has entered a recession the opposition ask only two fucking questions about the economy to the most important man in the country is an absolute fucking disgrace. What the fuck is he thinking about, the 2.5m unemployed people don't give a shit about Hunt and NI, they want answers on why government policy is so fucking shitty and why the coalition government is so fucking complacent about it all.
Fucking idiot. I hate the government but the opposition are fucking useless. On the day that, officially at least, Britain has entered a recession the opposition ask only two fucking questions about the economy to the most important man in the country is an absolute fucking disgrace. What the fuck is he thinking about, the 2.5m unemployed people don't give a shit about Hunt and NI, they want answers on why government policy is so fucking shitty and why the coalition government is so fucking complacent about it all.
The Incarnation
Member
Danger Zone..
Yep, he did.