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UK PoliGAF thread of tell me about the rabbits again, Dave.
- Thread starter Chinner
- Start date
CHEEZMO
Obsidian fan
Ey, UKIP are big tough manly men who know what needs to be done, not like those sissy mincing benders that inhabit the Tory party wot wot.
Delusibeta
Banned
The English are like the Greeks in that regard, it seems.
Miles Quaritch
Member
I wouldn't worry too much, they'll lose all their seats/gains in the general election. It's no different from the BNP winning a few seats in the local elections. When people realise they are nothing but bluster and can't get anything done, they'll be promptly voted out and go back to being irrelevant.
Meh, the results are depressing.
S far both councils the Tories have lost have seen UKIP come in second place. The most logical coalition to govern in both places will be a Tory / UKIP alliance, which would basically push the councils further to the right.
So far it seems like the protest vote against the Tories has swung to UKIP rather than to Labour - Labour are making modest gains, but nothing to shout about.
Oh, and re FPTP preventing UKIP becoming a main party - that's not true at all. Labour managed it at the turn of the last century, and its happened in Canada much more recently. FPTP makes it harder for new parties to form and succeed, but doesn't make it impossible.
S far both councils the Tories have lost have seen UKIP come in second place. The most logical coalition to govern in both places will be a Tory / UKIP alliance, which would basically push the councils further to the right.
So far it seems like the protest vote against the Tories has swung to UKIP rather than to Labour - Labour are making modest gains, but nothing to shout about.
Oh, and re FPTP preventing UKIP becoming a main party - that's not true at all. Labour managed it at the turn of the last century, and its happened in Canada much more recently. FPTP makes it harder for new parties to form and succeed, but doesn't make it impossible.
QuicheFontaine
Member
"imitating a pot plant"?? What? You'd think they could come up with a better excuse than that. That's just nonsensical.
UKIP is the perfect protest party really, people want a simple message and the main parties are all too blurred together / unable to say what they'd do different. UKIP is the none-of-the-above option, the fact their policies don't add up on a local level doesn't matter because people have no confidence in the others to make a difference anyway.
I can see UKIP remaining a problem into the next election, Labour especially need to up their game considerably.
PJV3
Member
Labour can do nothing about UKIP, outside of offering a EU referendum. The news media love UKIP and it's mostly a schism of the rigjt, I don't want Labour reacting to UKIP, they've spent 30 yrs reacting to Thatcherism.
The electoral system and who is actually voting prevents a shift to the left, so the echo chamber will carry on.
The electoral system and who is actually voting prevents a shift to the left, so the echo chamber will carry on.
QuicheFontaine
Member
The funny thing is, while UKIP is more or less a single-issue party, people don't appear to be voting for them because of Europe. As this analysis shows, about three quarters of potential UKIP voters don't really care about Europe.
It seems to be a protest vote, but really a protest against modern life and a wish to return to "the good old days", rather than a demand for an EU referendum.
Have we got any proof it was a nazi salute or are we just trying to make a size 2 cap fit on a size 10 head and assuming someone we don't like is guilty and getting the pitchforks out?
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Yup, UKIP are the "Britain is shit because of foreigners" party right now. Those voters don't vote for the establishment parties and UKIP gives them a viable option rather than staying home which is what normally happens. On the one hand I think it would be interesting to see what would happen if UKIP got 30-40 MPs and went into a coalition with the Tories, on the other I don't subscribe to their new selling point of "Britain is shit because of foreigners" rather their old one which was "get out of the EU as it restricts worldwide trade".
The headlines of hundreds of thousands of skint battle hardened Romanians coming unchecked to suck us a dry and rape our women seems to be holding a lot of weight in our area.
The public need reassuring about this subject because it's happening and no one has asked for it, people are getting very wary.
What makes you think they are far right?
The coalition has been throwing out a mix of centre left and centre right policies?
Hyperbole? It's like saying Nu Labour were far left.
I don't know how anyone in Scotland can see what's going on in England and still see a positive case for a union these days.
As an Englishman with no love whatsoever for UKIP this kind of attitude pisses me off
Would joining the Euro be better. They gain independence, then promptly give it away for less independence than they had in the first place. . Either that or stick with sterling and still have England telling them what they can and can't do.
Eh it's pretty much the same most of Europe, the FN in France, the PVV in the Netherlands etc... and now UKIP.
Voting for independence doesn't mean adopting the Euro.
Most people won't be paying attention tbh and when I used to do door knocking there seemed to be alot of confusion over what the Scottish Govt actually has control over.
QuicheFontaine
Member
If that's their new selling point they're going to struggle...
At least with "get out of the EU" there's plenty of things to point at that are wrong with the EU. And with the whole Eurozone crisis just acting to exacerbate problems, as countries revert to acting in their own national interest and pointing fingers at each other over whose fault this fuckup was (there's been a slew of threads about this in the last few weeks).
Ravensmash
Member
I think it's a stretch to claim that UKIP guy was definitely doing a Nazi salute.
The excuse sounds silly, but it's entirely plausible if you look at it objectively. People get snapped in the middle of weird little movements all the time, only have to read the shite gossip mags to see that in action.
The excuse sounds silly, but it's entirely plausible if you look at it objectively. People get snapped in the middle of weird little movements all the time, only have to read the shite gossip mags to see that in action.
Why? I'm not SNP and not a fan of Salmond but to get the country that our people want we have to leave. Hell will freeze over before the UK becomes social democratic.
I'm natuarally a unionist but I'm also a realist.
Because it treats English people with contempt
zomgbbqftw
Banned
For Scotland it probably does as they would have to petition for entry into Europe as a new candidate country, at least going by the advice from the EC. That means negotiating all new opt-outs and such. While the EU were ready to give Britain (60m people, second largest economy in the bloc) an opt-out because we would have left otherwise, I'm not so sure they will give Scotland any special treatment. The UK government have basically said they can't keep Sterling without significant fiscal and monetary concessions to the Treasury and BoE, so I'm not sure where they go from there if they do vote for independence.
The english want there country to be something the scottish don't want it to be and vice versa. Nothing to do with contempt for English.
We leave, Labour are out for a generation atleast and england gets the majority tory government it votes for and we get our social democratic one. Win win.
PJV3
Member
If I was in Scotland I would vote for independence, the English are on a one way journey to the bottom of the barrel. Scots need to think of the post EU world of working conditions etc.
Exactly, for me its a practical choice not an emotional one. If I went by my emotions I'd vote to stay.
Edit - Some people have said we should stay and fight (along with the English/welsh/whatever that favour the society we want to change the UK but it's pointless). Neolibs are too deeply entrenched no credible party offers an alternative. Not enough people in the UK population even want an alternative to neo liberalism.
Nobody knows what Independence means other than "oil lol" when the SNP are asked any questions.
You know as well as everyone (or at least you should do) that there is absolutely NOTHING, not one thing the Westminster government could do short of the use of violence that could prevent Scotland from using Sterling as legal tender.
Its not about whether they could, its whether they should. Fiscal policy and monetary policy are interdependent, you cant arbitrarily separate the two of them.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Delusibeta
Banned
Yes there is. They can simply say "no, it's our currency, hands off".
PJV3
Member
The future is pretty bleak, A conservative vision of the EU set in stone with a treaty and referendum. I am voting to get out of the EU in that situation. Not because I'm against the EU, it is purely a matter of political reality.
They cant actually do that. If the Scottish Government wanted to use Sterling then there is nothing the UK government could do to stop them.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Not really. Scotland can unilaterally take up Sterling as an independent nation, but they will have no control over the monetary policy and they will not be able to print money, the money printing licences would be revoked from Clydesdale bank and RBS. Essentially the government would have to guarantee bank deposits nominated in GBP without a lender of last resort now that the BoE and Treasury have confirmed they will not play ball with Salmond (and they shouldn't, there should be no influence from nations outside the union on our monetary and fiscal policy).
It could all go very wrong, very fast. Scotland really just needs a new currency but Salmond won't come out and say it because people will fear for their savings if they are converted into McPounds overnight as an independent Scottish economy would be very prone to external shocks that can hit oil prices.
Edit, they wouldn't have to guarantee Sterling bank deposits, but in that case where would be the sense of having a Scottish bank account where deposits aren't guaranteed when south of the border the UK government guarantees savings up to £85k per account.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Exchange rate pegged at 4 McDonalds quarter-pounders to the McPound?
That's taking an odd view of how post-independence relations between Scotland and England will work. For all the rhetoric coming out of Westminster now, there is absolutely no incentive for them to want to exclude Scotland from a Sterling area, or to deny them influence in policy making (indeed they'll probably have more influence outside the carcass of the UK than within). Being in the list of reserve currencies (even if not exactly near the top) has benefits and anything that diminishes Sterling will be avoided.
So at the end of the day you won't see the same tone of debate on this matter after independence as you will before.
So at the end of the day you won't see the same tone of debate on this matter after independence as you will before.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Eep, Labour down 5% on 2005 which is when the same seats were last contested with a semi-popular Labour government and an unpopular Tory party.
Absolutely terrible night for Labour as well. All the establishment parties are looking very tired right now. I don't think Cameron is going to be around much longer. The Tories will elect a leader that can make an electoral pact with UKIP, the Tories will promise to hold a referendum post 2015 and campaign to leave the EU in return UKIP will stand down in Lab/Con and Lib/Con marginals and instruct their supporters to vote Con. Any UKIP MPs that do get elected will join a Con/UKIP coalition like the CDU/FDP coalition in Germany.
Absolutely terrible night for Labour as well. All the establishment parties are looking very tired right now. I don't think Cameron is going to be around much longer. The Tories will elect a leader that can make an electoral pact with UKIP, the Tories will promise to hold a referendum post 2015 and campaign to leave the EU in return UKIP will stand down in Lab/Con and Lib/Con marginals and instruct their supporters to vote Con. Any UKIP MPs that do get elected will join a Con/UKIP coalition like the CDU/FDP coalition in Germany.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Sir_Crocodile
Member
I won't be voting tory if they make a pact with those nutters. I'll have to vote green or something, ugh
Delusibeta
Banned
Ironically, I suspect a UKIP/Con pact would be the fastest way of killing off UKIP. It did a grand job of cutting the Parliamentary legs off the UUP.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Sure, but they propose more of a "let's vote to stick around" rather than what UKIP want which is "EU go fuck yourself". UKIP just want out of the EU entirely, and if the Tories promised to campaign on that and brought their considerable backing and negative tactics expertise to such a campaign, the country would vote to leave by a big margin.
PJV3
Member
Labour are +7% on 2009, I'm not expecting anything but a hung parliament in 2015.
Im not sure if the Tories should panic, the analysis seems to suggest a good chunk of UKIP support coming from smaller parties such as the BNP.
They will panic, they have been on alert ever since they never got an outright majority. Don't know why, I'd put money on them still being in govt come 2015.