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UK PoliGAF thread of tell me about the rabbits again, Dave.
- Thread starter Chinner
- Start date
CyclopsRock
Member
First ward to declare had UKIP beat the Tories to 2nd place.
Tonight could be interesting!
I think that as long as the Tories don't do too badly, they'll be happy. General concensus seemed to be a Labour 400-seat gain. Let's seeeeee.
IMO locals are more interesting than European.
Tonight could be interesting!
I think that as long as the Tories don't do too badly, they'll be happy. General concensus seemed to be a Labour 400-seat gain. Let's seeeeee.
IMO locals are more interesting than European.
WayneMorse
Banned
UKIP seems to be taking more from Labour than the Conservatives.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Looks like it is going to be a bad night for Labour. Going backwards in Swindon, losing Great Yarmouth council to NOC. If Labour make less than 200 gains they are in big trouble for the general election. Big fucking trouble.
WayneMorse
Banned
Time to dump Miliband tbh.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Suicide in the run up to the election. The new leader would get absolutely fucked on being a novice, not the time to risk the recovery on someone untested. That's if they make a clean break from the Brown/Blair days. If they go back for one of those guys they the Tories will have a field day with it.
For better or worse (probably worse) Labour are stuck with Ed until after the election. Also, Labour do not replace their leaders. They didn't even get rid of Gordon Brown, probably the worst PM we've ever had.
Exterminieren
Banned
This sounds like it's going to be a fucking terrible night for Labour. Like, holy shit.
Chances of him being dumped by this time next week? Don't know who will replace him, but Labour really need to do something drastic.
Chances of him being dumped by this time next week? Don't know who will replace him, but Labour really need to do something drastic.
CyclopsRock
Member
Who could replace him at this stage? Balls is about the only member of the cabinet that is a) a well known person and b) more disliked than Miliband. Harman would have to be the front runner, but she's even more "tainted" by the last government than Ed is. David Miliband would just be a joke at this point, and all their Blairites who were talented and not too tainted by the last government were exiled and no longer have an active role in the party (for example, Purnell - if he'd spent the last 4 years in a fairly senior shadow cabinet role, I think a lot of people would be eyeing him up right now). I think Ed has done a pretty good job of shoring up his support in the party, but unfortunately for those that want to see a strong Labour party, that means little alternative at the moment. They don't even have a Vince Cable-like "grumpy uncle who doesn't tow the party line but is too popular to get rid of" figure (the Tories is Boris, natch).
Ed's safe as houses, I think.
WayneMorse
Banned
Chuka Umunna?
Miliband's only policy since becoming leader seems to have been 'not the Tories'. Just to wait it out and get back in with people pissed off with the coalition.
Trouble is everyone is still pissed off with all of them.
Enter UKIP to pick up all those votes and the wheels came off Ed's plan completely.
Trouble is everyone is still pissed off with all of them.
Enter UKIP to pick up all those votes and the wheels came off Ed's plan completely.
CyclopsRock
Member
I think in 5 years (maybe 10 - depends on the landscape) he could be a good shout. He definitely seems a lot more "normal" than most modern members of parliament and, whatever else you want to say about him, Farage has shown that people are sort of thirsty for that. But right now I think the majority of people couldn't pick him out of a lineup, and shadow business secretary just isn't a big enough training ground, I think.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
"Not the time for a novice", "Why risk our economic recovery".
Con Majority of ~30. Plus he puts as many Labour people off as Tories and he is another smarmy metropolitan cunt who has no chance of connecting with Labour's traditional WWC voter who are running to UKIP right now. Labour need Ed Miliband and the last vestiges of the Brownites to lose and then to purge all of them from their front bench. Propel a WWC background MP to leader and try again in 2020 and hope that the loss in 2015 is to a Tory minority and not a majority.
CyclopsRock
Member
First ward result in Brum:
"Lib Dems from 1600 to 157"
Fucking lol
"Lib Dems from 1600 to 157"
Fucking lol
CyclopsRock
Member
He knew exactly how much it was, because he eats Wagon Wheels, exclusively.
Boris is the only hope for this country. Nobody wants any of these twats so let's just vote for the one who will provide the most laughs.
I had the same conversation with my mum.
Boris would get votes from everyone. Imagine the party political broadcasts! It would be wonderful stuff.
in more ways than one
WayneMorse
Banned
This Winston McKenzie interview is quite bizarre.
Pyroclastic
Banned
chukka umunna is one of the blandest, most blatant career politican I've ever seen I hope not.
WayneMorse
Banned
I'd be surprised if UKIP manages to gain a seat in Parliament in 2015, they simply don't have the funding or infrastructure to run a full general election campaign.
I hope for our countries sake that that's true.
Osiris
I permanently banned my 6 year old daughter from using the PS4 for mistakenly sending grief reports as it's too hard to watch or talk to her
Agreed, its a typical pre-GE local election story, Voters want to register protest, or use it for single issue exposure, but as soon as GE comes thoughts move to the policies of those that will be running the country and those gains are typically lost, with the press bleating "What happened?" as if it's not the same story we've seen for the last 30+ years.
Anyone remember the supposed "green party" resurgence that was the same scenario a few years back (maybe a decade?), voters not wanting to support the opposition, nor the party in power, yeah, that green party, a powerhouse in politics now. /s
Not only did I vote, I convinced the wife to do so too despite protestations about the weather.
Couldn't bring myself at the moment to vote LD, the orange bookers have moved the party in a direction I seriously can't stand and their coalition experience so far has been dire, I wouldn't vote Conservative if they paid for votes, and I'd tear my own fingers off with my teeth so I couldn't hold a pen
cil*
Leaving me with just a protest vote of Labour, despite finding them also abhorrent.
At the moment, not a single party aligns with enough of my ideals to be anything other than an apathetic vote made because I should, meh :/
* Yes, Pencil, at least at our polling station, WTF is that about?, I call shenanigans!
Feathers, feathers everywhere!
anonymous_abc
Member
Not many results in yet... is that normal?
Why? They'll never get into power or anywhere near it but they look to be doing more than enough to force one of the main parties to give us a democratic EU referendum.
Democracy is working as it should. The apathy amongst the non voters should be lessened for the general election and we could end up with more turnout. The turnout for a referendum would be huge I reckon.
Agreed, its a typical pre-GE local election story, Voters want to register protest, or use it for single issue exposure, but as soon as GE comes thoughts move to the policies of those that will be running the country and those gains are typically lost, with the press bleating "What happened?" as if it's not the same story we've seen for the last 30+ years.
Anyone remember the supposed "green party" resurgence that was the same scenario a few years back (maybe a decade?), voters not wanting to support the opposition, nor the party in power, yeah, that green party, a powerhouse in politics now. /s
Not only did I vote, I convinced the wife to do so too despite protestations about the weather.
Couldn't bring myself at the moment to vote LD, the orange bookers have moved the party in a direction I seriously can't stand and their coalition experience so far has been dire, I wouldn't vote Conservative if they paid for votes, and I'd tear my own fingers off with my teeth so I couldn't hold a penbefore I'd vote for any of the current spate of nationalist right-wing, UKIP tailriding dickwads, or UKIP for that matter.cil*
Leaving me with just a protest vote of Labour, despite finding them also abhorrent.
At the moment, not a single party aligns with enough of my ideals to be anything other than an apathetic vote made because I should, meh :/
* Yes, Pencil, at least at our polling station, WTF is that about?, I call shenanigans!
Out of interest what did you expect the coalition to be able to do with what they had?
anonymous_abc
Member
I'm not saying one is always better than the other. I am sure there are examples of privatisation gone well. And I don't think everything imaginable should be in public hands.
You would never catch me saying that the public sector is always efficient and cheap. I have been in local politics too long to know that is not the case. 30 years on at local government level in a different country Yes Minister holds true and is an accurate description of how the civil service works.
And of course my conviction that anything related to infrastructure should be 100% public is an ideological one. Nevertheless it is something I will continue to fight for.
Whenever conservative or neo liberal politicians in Germany talk about privatising the Deutsche Bahn, I shudder thinking of the Railway system in the UK. Happily that is currently no longer on the agenda till the next guy comes along to suggest it.
And I was ecstatic when the EU reversed its decision to not mandate call for bids on water services last year. Please do watch water makes money, it's hella interesting.
Nicktendo86
Member
Looks like a bad night for labour. Can't wait for the euro results on Sunday!
Yougov have the Tories and labour even today BTW on ge15 voting intention. A year away from the election, I think it is safe to say a labour majority is not going to happen.
Yougov have the Tories and labour even today BTW on ge15 voting intention. A year away from the election, I think it is safe to say a labour majority is not going to happen.
Labour really don't seem in a strong position for the General Election next year, and while a cursory glance seems to indicate while they're vacuuming up the Lib Dem votes, they're losing some ground to UKIP.
I'll be interested to see the EU results, especially in Scotland. I don't think UKIP are likely to make any inroads there but I doubt Labour still have the mindshare they think they have and the Greens/SNP might do well out of that. (That said, it is possible UKIP might have more support than I anticipate). A strong UKIP presence in England and no representation in Scotland would move more of the Scottish people towards a Yes vote, IMO.
I'll be interested to see the EU results, especially in Scotland. I don't think UKIP are likely to make any inroads there but I doubt Labour still have the mindshare they think they have and the Greens/SNP might do well out of that. (That said, it is possible UKIP might have more support than I anticipate). A strong UKIP presence in England and no representation in Scotland would move more of the Scottish people towards a Yes vote, IMO.
The Incarnation
Member
UKIP them doing well will almost certainly scare the Scots into a yes vote.
I am by nature a centre-left voter, but I have to say I've been very disappointed in Labour over the last couple of days in their response to things. Rather than spell out their policies, or lead on something, instead all they have done is attack the Tories.
Firstly, Theresa May's speech to the Police federation. It was a stonker - it's been needed for years, and the very fact we have a conservative minister attacking the police for racism, corruption, victim shaming and bigotry marks how far this country has come in a very short space of time. However, the labour ex-minister response spent all his time attacking her for the "pantomime" of it whilst hardly mentioning the fact he agreed with all she said.
Secondly, the failure of the government to meet its immigration target. Instead of attacking the very concept of a target, and trying to stake some distance in the immigration debate (as many in this thread have outlined), instead Yvette Cooper just attacked the government for failing to meet its target and the failure of their policy. I normally have a lot of time for Yvette and consider her one of the strongest labour front benchers, but this was very disappointing.
Labour needs to develop some policies and actual ground between them and the conservatives. There is utterly no vision for the future at the moment, just a bunch of attacks and small scale micro-policies that get headlines. That isn't enough to win a general election in this country, at this time - especially not when the economic recovery is finally kicking in.
Firstly, Theresa May's speech to the Police federation. It was a stonker - it's been needed for years, and the very fact we have a conservative minister attacking the police for racism, corruption, victim shaming and bigotry marks how far this country has come in a very short space of time. However, the labour ex-minister response spent all his time attacking her for the "pantomime" of it whilst hardly mentioning the fact he agreed with all she said.
Secondly, the failure of the government to meet its immigration target. Instead of attacking the very concept of a target, and trying to stake some distance in the immigration debate (as many in this thread have outlined), instead Yvette Cooper just attacked the government for failing to meet its target and the failure of their policy. I normally have a lot of time for Yvette and consider her one of the strongest labour front benchers, but this was very disappointing.
Labour needs to develop some policies and actual ground between them and the conservatives. There is utterly no vision for the future at the moment, just a bunch of attacks and small scale micro-policies that get headlines. That isn't enough to win a general election in this country, at this time - especially not when the economic recovery is finally kicking in.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Thoughts:
So a horrible night for Labour (with some decent news in London), an average one for the Tories (with bad news in London), poor night for the Lib Dems and what looks like a real turning point for UKIP.
The Tories need to go back to HQ today and take a look at what they need to do to win in London. H+F have done a fucking brilliant job and Labour have done a pretty poor job in Enfield, losing ground in both seats is not where they want to be. They need London specific policy of the same kind that gets Boris elected. I would look at a higher minimum wage in London to reflect the higher cost of living as a priority. I would also look at publicly financed house/flat building across the capital. The number one issue is getting on the housing ladder, and it is very tough to make it happen on less than £45k gross regardless of the kind of deposit one might have saved. It took me three promotions and major pay rises before I could afford a decent place in zone 2. It should not be the preserve of senior level and board level management to afford flats and houses in zone 2 (and soon 3).
A system open to anyone earning the basic rate of tax (under £44k) is the fairest way to do it. Flats in zones 2-4 from £150k to £250k requiring a 10% deposit. Not for profit. No flipping for the first 5-7 years.
People talk about gentrification in certain areas to drive the Con vote, but a lot of these people are not owner occupiers, they are renters and they hold a grudge against the government because they have been priced out of ownership in desirable areas. Until the Tories are on the side of working people in London who want to own a flat (HtB does nothing when the flat costs £450k and wages are £40k) and not on the side of rich oligarchs and the people selling up in zone 1 at inflated prices and spraying their funny money in areas like H+F driving up house prices to levels which young professionals who should be natural Con voters can't afford.
As for UKIP, allying themselves with the Cons seems like a one way ticket to becoming a southern party again. Farage and the party machine should resist any calls to enter any kind of alliance with the Tories. The furthest he should go is to say where UKIP may end up unseating a Eurosceptic or BOO Tory, take the campaigning easy to ensure they don't split the vote to allow a Europhile Labour MP in (the same, of course goes for any Eurosceptic/BOO Labour MP).
In H+F it strikes me that Ed's rental market intervention policy has worked because the council have actually done a good job here, the local Tories losing here is because of outside factors and national policy. Across London I think Ed's rental policy has helped them while outside of London I don't think it made much of an impact. The government need to go in with a policy specific to London or inner cities to help young people on regular incomes to get on the housing ladder. HtB just doesn't cut it when one bedroom flats start at £300k.
So a horrible night for Labour (with some decent news in London), an average one for the Tories (with bad news in London), poor night for the Lib Dems and what looks like a real turning point for UKIP.
The Tories need to go back to HQ today and take a look at what they need to do to win in London. H+F have done a fucking brilliant job and Labour have done a pretty poor job in Enfield, losing ground in both seats is not where they want to be. They need London specific policy of the same kind that gets Boris elected. I would look at a higher minimum wage in London to reflect the higher cost of living as a priority. I would also look at publicly financed house/flat building across the capital. The number one issue is getting on the housing ladder, and it is very tough to make it happen on less than £45k gross regardless of the kind of deposit one might have saved. It took me three promotions and major pay rises before I could afford a decent place in zone 2. It should not be the preserve of senior level and board level management to afford flats and houses in zone 2 (and soon 3).
A system open to anyone earning the basic rate of tax (under £44k) is the fairest way to do it. Flats in zones 2-4 from £150k to £250k requiring a 10% deposit. Not for profit. No flipping for the first 5-7 years.
People talk about gentrification in certain areas to drive the Con vote, but a lot of these people are not owner occupiers, they are renters and they hold a grudge against the government because they have been priced out of ownership in desirable areas. Until the Tories are on the side of working people in London who want to own a flat (HtB does nothing when the flat costs £450k and wages are £40k) and not on the side of rich oligarchs and the people selling up in zone 1 at inflated prices and spraying their funny money in areas like H+F driving up house prices to levels which young professionals who should be natural Con voters can't afford.
As for UKIP, allying themselves with the Cons seems like a one way ticket to becoming a southern party again. Farage and the party machine should resist any calls to enter any kind of alliance with the Tories. The furthest he should go is to say where UKIP may end up unseating a Eurosceptic or BOO Tory, take the campaigning easy to ensure they don't split the vote to allow a Europhile Labour MP in (the same, of course goes for any Eurosceptic/BOO Labour MP).
In H+F it strikes me that Ed's rental market intervention policy has worked because the council have actually done a good job here, the local Tories losing here is because of outside factors and national policy. Across London I think Ed's rental policy has helped them while outside of London I don't think it made much of an impact. The government need to go in with a policy specific to London or inner cities to help young people on regular incomes to get on the housing ladder. HtB just doesn't cut it when one bedroom flats start at £300k.
Nicktendo86
Member
I think a big part of London zomg, particularly inner London, is the growth of ethnic minorities who have really replaced the white working class who used to vote labour and in this poll have turned to ukip. It feels pointless for the Tories to even turn up in places like tower hamlets, the Bengali population will always vote labour or the latest Luther Rahman type nutter.
I don't think we're into the horrible territory for labour, unless you have the expected predictions for the remaining councils who haven't declared.
With 62 of 161 councils reporting in, Labour have gained 112 seats. If that rate continues that puts them just shy of 300 seats gained. Whilst not the wave they should have been expecting, that still puts them at the lower boundary of what they need to win a general election. It's by no means a triumph for them, or even a good night, but it's not a horrible night.
Re. London, I agree with your points but think even the rates you suggest are too low. Myself and my partner earn £120K between us, and we rent in zone 2. there's no way we could buy here without saving for *years* for the deposit - if you don't have wealthy family or parents who can help you with that, it's a huge stumbling block to home ownership and property prices are going up far faster than wages or savings.
H&F is going to be interesting. the *entire* point of the Tri-borough alliance was to lock H&F into a Tory majority - it was the only one of the three councils that changed overall control in the last 20 years. In reality not much has actually changed in the boroughs beyond a few reduced senior management posts so I do expect it to fall apart at this stage (they really didn't move fast enough in locking in cross-borough services really).
With 62 of 161 councils reporting in, Labour have gained 112 seats. If that rate continues that puts them just shy of 300 seats gained. Whilst not the wave they should have been expecting, that still puts them at the lower boundary of what they need to win a general election. It's by no means a triumph for them, or even a good night, but it's not a horrible night.
Re. London, I agree with your points but think even the rates you suggest are too low. Myself and my partner earn £120K between us, and we rent in zone 2. there's no way we could buy here without saving for *years* for the deposit - if you don't have wealthy family or parents who can help you with that, it's a huge stumbling block to home ownership and property prices are going up far faster than wages or savings.
H&F is going to be interesting. the *entire* point of the Tri-borough alliance was to lock H&F into a Tory majority - it was the only one of the three councils that changed overall control in the last 20 years. In reality not much has actually changed in the boroughs beyond a few reduced senior management posts so I do expect it to fall apart at this stage (they really didn't move fast enough in locking in cross-borough services really).