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[zomgbbqftw]

I think a big part of London zomg, particularly inner London, is the growth of ethnic minorities who have really replaced the white working class who used to vote labour and in this poll have turned to ukip. It feels pointless for the Tories to even turn up in places like tower hamlets, the Bengali population will always vote labour or the latest Luther Rahman type nutter.

Inner London was never going to be in play outside of Chelsea, Kensington and other major centres of wealth. The issue is that the Tories lost in H+F which is considered one of those on the border places with a large amount of gentrification in the last few years, yet they Tories lost ground rather than gaining it. Traditional thinking implies that as an area becomes gentrified it also moves towards the Cons as higher incomes and more wealth moves into the area. H+F has confounded that thinking because of generation rent. I live there and trust me there are too many people renting that can't afford to buy. HtB does nothing for them because flats start at £300k and most earn between £35-45k, nowhere near enough to get a mortgage of £285k. The government needs to take action to bring the price of property down so people on middle and lower incomes can afford to buy flats. The only way to do this is a new wave of house/flat building and reserving said properties for people on the basic rate of tax. 20-25k one and two bedroom flats between £150k and £250k for one bedroom and £200k and £300k for two bedroom, all across zones 2-4. Get people into ownership and out of the rental sector.

By forcing supply up for purchasing, it will have the double whammy effect of hitting rental yields so either the current load of buy-to-letters will have to accept lesser yields or they will have to sell up, again increasing supply and lowering prices. It will also mean people who do sell up will have to look for yield elsewhere in less destructive forms of capital, most likely in the equity markets which is good news for businesses looking for capital to invest.

At the moment the UK market is all fucked up because there is too much capital tied up in property, it means businesses have to offer ridiculous yields to get investment capital which hits business investment and job creation. By forcing capital out of property and into equity markets it will boost the economy, of that I am sure, but the Tories are shit scared of punitive action on landlords, which means the only way is to price them out by destroying their yield. Building not-for-profit flats will correct the market without taking any punitive steps that could lose votes or destabilise the housing market.

I don't think we're into the horrible territory for labour, unless you have the expected predictions for the remaining councils who haven't declared.

With 62 of 161 councils reporting in, Labour have gained 112 seats. If that rate continues that puts them just shy of 300 seats gained. Whilst not the wave they should have been expecting, that still puts them at the lower boundary of what they need to win a general election. It's by no means a triumph for them, or even a good night, but it's not a horrible night.

Re. London, I agree with your points but think even the rates you suggest are too low. Myself and my partner earn £120K between us, and we rent in zone 2. there's no way we could buy here without saving for *years* for the deposit - if you don't have wealthy family or parents who can help you with that, it's a huge stumbling block to home ownership and property prices are going up far faster than wages or savings.

H&F is going to be interesting. the *entire* point of the Tri-borough alliance was to lock H&F into a Tory majority - it was the only one of the three councils that changed overall control in the last 20 years. In reality not much has actually changed in the boroughs beyond a few reduced senior management posts so I do expect it to fall apart at this stage (they really didn't move fast enough in locking in cross-borough services really).

The idea is that by taking a whole bunch of people out of the rental market, it would force down rental yields and increase supply of regular housing as landlords look for better RoI and sell up their property. Housing in London gives an annual yield of around 6%, with a buy-to-let mortgage that comes down by half, so 3% for private landlords of reliable income. Bringing that down to below 1% or even pushing it into negative territory (that is to say the rent doesn't cover the mortgage) will ease supply further and allow people in your position, mid-high income, to buy a place as well.

 

[Delusibeta]

Thought experiment: in the event the UK leaves the EU, we'd probably want to have a free trade agreement with the EU. This will almost certainly result in the EU sticking the boot in and we'd almost certainly pay more to the EU as a result. In addition, anyone exporting anything to the EU (which is practically all of our manufacturers) would have to abide by EU regulation, and I'd wager that Westminster would still put that into UK law. Basically, all Westminster would gain from leaving the EU is the ability to restrict EU immigration and the ability to erode worker's rights further in exchange for sending the EU more money.

I see absolutely zero case for any sane person for wanting out of the EU.

 

[Nicktendo86]

You're right about housing, we currently are shared ownership but are looking to buy and looks like we will have to go out to Essex. Born and bread here, TH may be a shit hole but its my shit hole and will be sad to move out.

 

[3Sixty]

UKIP ended up getting no seats in Eastleigh at all?


Hahaha Brilliant.

 

[StayDead]

One good thing I've noticed is Greens have gained some more seats since the last time I checked. Yes, it's not many, but any are good in my book.

 

[Zaph]

Inner London was never going to be in play outside of Chelsea, Kensington and other major centres of wealth. The issue is that the Tories lost in H+F which is considered one of those on the border places with a large amount of gentrification in the last few years, yet they Tories lost ground rather than gaining it. Traditional thinking implies that as an area becomes gentrified it also moves towards the Cons as higher incomes and more wealth moves into the area. H+F has confounded that thinking because of generation rent. I live there and trust me there are too many people renting that can't afford to buy. HtB does nothing for them because flats start at £300k and most earn between £35-45k, nowhere near enough to get a mortgage of £285k. The government needs to take action to bring the price of property down so people on middle and lower incomes can afford to buy flats. The only way to do this is a new wave of house/flat building and reserving said properties for people on the basic rate of tax. 20-25k one and two bedroom flats between £150k and £250k for one bedroom and £200k and £300k for two bedroom, all across zones 2-4. Get people into ownership and out of the rental sector.

By forcing supply up for purchasing, it will have the double whammy effect of hitting rental yields so either the current load of buy-to-letters will have to accept lesser yields or they will have to sell up, again increasing supply and lowering prices. It will also mean people who do sell up will have to look for yield elsewhere in less destructive forms of capital, most likely in the equity markets which is good news for businesses looking for capital to invest.

At the moment the UK market is all fucked up because there is too much capital tied up in property, it means businesses have to offer ridiculous yields to get investment capital which hits business investment and job creation. By forcing capital out of property and into equity markets it will boost the economy, of that I am sure, but the Tories are shit scared of punitive action on landlords, which means the only way is to price them out by destroying their yield. Building not-for-profit flats will correct the market without taking any punitive steps that could lose votes or destabilise the housing market.

Do you think the increasing amount of empty properties in the major centres of wealth is having an effect on voting, especially for the Tories? Where I work, once the flower show is over, will go back to being a complete ghost town, and of the few people who actually live in their homes, most aren't eligible to vote.

 

[Jimmyfenix]

UKIP them doing well will almost certainly scare the Scots into a yes vote.

Don't you worry about us.

 

[StealthGoblin]

Girlfriend and I are both teachers (young) and can be offered £281,000 for a mortgage. We only want to spend a maximum of £200,000 on a 2/3 bedroom house (that must have a grassy garden for the dog).

There just aren't any of those around that won't require tens of thousands to renovate.

As we are both teachers we are tied to the area we live in for long periods of time. House hunting is depressing.

 

[Bleepey]

Gentrification is very apparent in my neighbourhood. There's a high street near me where in the space of 100m I counted about 10 estate agents. Oh and the houses everywhere cost a fucking shit tonne too. When estate agents in Peckham have houses that are generally unaffordable (£500,000+ for 2 bedroom houses) something is seriously wrong.

 

[CyclopsRock]

UKIP them doing well will almost certainly scare the Scots into a yes vote.

I don't think that's the case. The Tories, maybe, but not UKIP. What do they have to fear from UKIP? I still think they'll be lucky to get even one MP next year, and it's more likely to come at the expense of the Tories anyways. MEPs don't matter because an independent Scotland would be seeking to join the EU Parliament where those same MEPs are anyway.

 

[Osiris]

Girlfriend and I are both teachers (young) and can be offered £281,000 for a mortgage. We only want to spend a maximum of £200,000 on a 2/3 bedroom house (that must have a grassy garden for the dog).

There just aren't any of those around that won't require tens of thousands to renovate.

As we are both teachers we are tied to the area we live in for long periods of time. House hunting is depressing.

I think, in some cases, you have to reconsider your "mobility" and balance it against your desires.

A medium sized, 3 bed-roomed semi-detached, with medium sized garden around my area (Leicester) is about £115,000. (And yes, there's plenty of teaching jobs around here )

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Gentrification is very apparent in my neighbourhood. There's a high street near me where in the space of 100m I counted about 10 estate agents. Oh and the houses everywhere cost a fucking shit tonne too. When estate agents in Peckham have houses that are generally unaffordable (£500,000+ for 2 bedroom houses) something is seriously wrong.

That's the problem in London. Rich Arabs and oligarchs buy zone 1 property for cash, then the previous owners spray their funny money all over zone 2 which pushes people out to zone 3. Then we have a bubble where people who actually work in London are left renting. The only way to solve it is for massive state intervention in supply of cheap housing for people and couples/families on the basic rate of income. The worst part is that it's not just London now, parts of Surrey, Manchester and York are showing signs of an overheating market. Introduce a mass housebuilding scheme in all of these places and it will cool the market and allow normal people to finally get on the housing ladder. All Labour will do with a rental market intervention is make a few people pay a bit less rent and increase the number of empty properties. It will not help people onto the housing ladder. They say they will keep HtB but it is completely useless in London. Only housebuilding and not-for-profit sales will correct the fucked up market. Dave and George need to grow a pair because neither of the Eds want to help increase home ownership among young people.

 

[kmag]

I don't think that's the case. The Tories, maybe, but not UKIP. What do they have to fear from UKIP? I still think they'll be lucky to get even one MP next year, and it's more likely to come at the expense of the Tories anyways. MEPs don't matter because an independent Scotland would be seeking to join the EU Parliament where those same MEPs are anyway.

We don't particularly like right wing racists? We're more left leaning, and watching England lurch ever rightwards and voting for a bunch of plainly incompetent and incoherent right wing xenophobes tends to make us think that we've not got that much in common politically.

 

[kmag]

That's the problem in London. Rich Arabs and oligarchs buy zone 1 property for cash, then the previous owners spray their funny money all over zone 2 which pushes people out to zone 3. Then we have a bubble where people who actually work in London are left renting. The only way to solve it is for massive state intervention in supply of cheap housing for people and couples/families on the basic rate of income. The worst part is that it's not just London now, parts of Surrey, Manchester and York are showing signs of an overheating market. Introduce a mass housebuilding scheme in all of these places and it will cool the market and allow normal people to finally get on the housing ladder. All Labour will do with a rental market intervention is make a few people pay a bit less rent and increase the number of empty properties. It will not help people onto the housing ladder. They say they will keep HtB but it is completely useless in London. Only housebuilding and not-for-profit sales will correct the fucked up market. Dave and George need to grow a pair because neither of the Eds want to help increase home ownership among young people.

Surely Htb simply pushes the prices up. It's not means tested.

 

[TCRS]

The property market in London is seriously fucked up. Even renting is getting more difficult by the day. I'm so glad my parents bought a house 30 years ago.

 

[8bit]

Leader of Conservative Group on Portsmouth Council @DonnaPCC says she will offer cabinet posts to UKIP to get control

https://twitter.com/BBCPeterH/status/469626408495775745

 

[pulsemyne]

We don't particularly like right wing racists? We're more left leaning, and watching England lurch ever rightwards and voting for a bunch of plainly incompetent and incoherent right wing xenophobes tends to make us think that we've not got that much in common politically.

We think the same in Wales as well but we have much closer ties to England so we cannot leave them. Also we don't have oil to sell. We are more old school labour in our ideas as opposed to independence.

 

[8bit]

Nigel has promised to stand in the General Election next year.

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/469845971460190208

 

[WayneMorse]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...n-results-live#block-537f516ae4b020b0f5edaca3

Vince Cable and Lynne Featherstone would lose their seats if tonight's results were replicated in 2015.

 

[WayneMorse]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...n-results-live#block-537f5b26e4b0e732c16db927

Matthew Ellery, a Ukip candidate who was reportedly suspended during the election campaign, after describing local women as"pug ugly" on Facebook, has been elected to Basingstoke and Deane Council in Hampshire.

Neil Hamilton, Ukip's deputy chairman, was asked about this on BBC Berkshire earlier. "It just goes to show that perhaps some women like people talking dirty to them," he said. When challenged, he said he was joking.

...

 

[Nicktendo86]

I really hope as more light is out on ukip and their policy people realise they are nuts, and I think that will happen.

I think the Tories are going to have a slight lurch to the right to combat ukip though and although talk of a pact is having cold water poured on I think it will to an extent happen.

Where the fuck are these tower hamlets results? Rahman still stuffing envelopes?

 

[pulsemyne]

Well it wasn't as bad a night for labour as some made out. 259 gained (as opposed to some estimates last night as low as 150). The liberals were utterly smashed though.

 

[DECK'ARD]

Well it wasn't as bad a night for labour as some made out. 259 gained (as opposed to some estimates last night as low as 150). The liberals were utterly smashed though.

That's about half what they were expecting. It was Labour themselves who downgraded expectations last night to try and make it seem better.

 

[kitch9]

Thought experiment: in the event the UK leaves the EU, we'd probably want to have a free trade agreement with the EU. This will almost certainly result in the EU sticking the boot in and we'd almost certainly pay more to the EU as a result. In addition, anyone exporting anything to the EU (which is practically all of our manufacturers) would have to abide by EU regulation, and I'd wager that Westminster would still put that into UK law. Basically, all Westminster would gain from leaving the EU is the ability to restrict EU immigration and the ability to erode worker's rights further in exchange for sending the EU more money.

I see absolutely zero case for any sane person for wanting out of the EU.

We shouldn't leave the EU on the basis of what you guess would happen and manage to describe in one paragraph?

 

[kmag]

That's about half what they were expecting. It was Labour themselves who downgraded expectations last night to try and make it seem better.

It looks like Labours main issue was a combination of only lukewarm inroads against the Tories and completely losing the plot against UKIP in some of their Northern heartlands.

 

[Nicktendo86]

Well it wasn't as bad a night for labour as some made out. 259 gained (as opposed to some estimates last night as low as 150). The liberals were utterly smashed though.

BBC extrapolated to what nationwide in a general election today would be, labour on 2% lead. In previous years local elections year before a ge the Tories have got roughly 8% leads in opposition then got smashed in the ge. 2% lead for labour at this point is disastrous.

No one will get a majority, it is all about who will be the largest party. It was looking like labour, my money now is on the Tories.

 

[Nicktendo86]

48% turnout for tower hamlets apparently. Huge turnout compared to other parts of the country.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Surely Htb simply pushes the prices up. It's not means tested.

Not really. It may have had some effect, but I doubt it. There have only been something like 25,000 HtB sales with an average price of around £200k. The London housing market has exploded recently because of rich oligarchs and Arabs looking for a safe investment for their ill-gotten gains. Something out of the reach of their home countries that they know will be easy to sell for a lot of cash should they get into trouble. That has lead to a ripple effect where people in central London are receiving a fuckton of cash for their flats and houses, then they go and spend that money in places like Islington, Camden, Highgate and other areas. The people there then move out to Crouch End, Muswell Hill, Richmond and places like that, and so on. HtB has mostly been outside of London as well so I don't think that it has had a big effect on the London housing market. Nowhere near the effect that overseas purchasers have. Sadly there isn't a lot that can be done about this group other than to restrict the sale of property to UK residents or something along those lines but I'm not sure that would work under EU rules.

 

[Maledict]

That's about half what they were expecting. It was Labour themselves who downgraded expectations last night to try and make it seem better.

Firstly, results are still coming in and it's already up to 275.

Secondly, no-on, absolutely no-one, with any sanity was expecting above 500. 500 was the 'doing frigging amazing, blow-out at the next general election'.

300 or so is the bottom boundary for what they need to win at the next general. Likelihood remains on the current numbers that they are the largest party but don't have a majority.

 

[Nicktendo86]

OK where the hell are the tower hamlets results? I know we are a basket case borough but this is ridiculous.

 

[Empty]

the labour results aren't great. hopefully the ukip rise clearly eating into labour instead of just conveniently splitting the tory vote will be a wake up call for miliband, who has been way too complacent in assuming the left will just go for him after the lib dem collapse and left ukip alone. there's other flaws in his strategy, but this is pretty fundamental to what he's tried to do as leader.

hitting ukip hard on being cartoon tories who want to privatize the nhs, scrap tons of employment rights including paid maternity leave, massively increase military spending while cutting key services for working people instead of just sneering and calling them racists, which just plays into ukip's hands, would be a nice start.

 

[WayneMorse]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/23/labur-likely-short-commons-majority-general-election

Labour is likely to be the largest party in the Commons but fall slightly short of an overall majority when Britain goes to the polls in the general election next year, if projections based on the local election results are to be believed. Based on voting in English councils, the BBC estimated that Labour would get 322 seats, the Conservatives 255, Liberal Democrats 45 and other parties including Ukip 28. Sky News calculations also project a House of Commons with Labour on 322 seats, which is 64 up on 2010 and just four short of the 326 required for a working majority.

 

[War Peaceman]

So currently Labour have gained 299 seats (per the Guardian). I don't know how you can frame that as anything but a decent result. You can read the thread to see that people jumped to conclusions early and decided a narrative to follow.

Of course you can always say 'they should have done better'. But why? They are doing a weak job as an opposition party. Their leader is widely viewed as unsuitable (rightly or wrongly). It is difficult to remember the last bit of good press they had. They shouldn't be doing this well at all.

If anything - and like the last election - it shows that the Labour vote is far more resilient than it has any right to be.

 

[Jezbollah]

So, given that previous council elections a year out for general elections have seen the opposition parties gain up to around 500 seats, does this under-performance by Labour mean that they are likely to lose more voters to UKIP one year from now?

Or given that a lot of people may be using this as a protest vote, will those people vote UKIP if they see an election manifesto with somewhat controversial policies?

The era of four party politics has certainly thrown up some interesting scenarios..

 

[WayneMorse]

Looks like Geert Wilders' People Party underperformed in the EU elections in the Netherlands, hopefully the tide is turning against neo-fascism in the rest of Europe as well.

 

[kitch9]

Girlfriend and I are both teachers (young) and can be offered £281,000 for a mortgage. We only want to spend a maximum of £200,000 on a 2/3 bedroom house (that must have a grassy garden for the dog).

There just aren't any of those around that won't require tens of thousands to renovate.

As we are both teachers we are tied to the area we live in for long periods of time. House hunting is depressing.

£281000 will buy you a 5 bedroom house with a stable in my neck of the woods up North. I wouldn't live in London for a gold pig.

 

[kitch9]

So currently Labour have gained 299 seats (per the Guardian). I don't know how you can frame that as anything but a decent result. You can read the thread to see that people jumped to conclusions early and decided a narrative to follow.

Of course you can always say 'they should have done better'. But why? They are doing a weak job as an opposition party. Their leader is widely viewed as unsuitable (rightly or wrongly). It is difficult to remember the last bit of good press they had. They shouldn't be doing this well at all.

If anything - and like the last election - it shows that the Labour vote is far more resilient than it has any right to be.

With Labour if all else fails just tell the people that they give them free stuff paid for with other peoples money, our our children's money if they decide to go on a debt spending spree.

That never fails.

 

[Nicktendo86]

What the fuck is going on at tower hamlets? Still not declared, police shut the place down as 2000 people outside, fuck this joke of a borough.

 

[Delusibeta]

Projected national vote share from the BBC (vs 2013 local elections):

LAB 31% (up 2%)
CON 29% (up 4%)
UKIP 17% (down 6%)
LIBDEM 13% (down 1%)
OTHERS 10% (up 1%)

What earthquake?

 

[Nicktendo86]

Rahman won the th mayoral election. No real surprise, he bought it months ago. His supporters jeered Labour candidate as he gave his speech, classy.

 

[3Sixty]

Looked closer into the Southampton results.

UKIP were just 41 votes away from a seat in Sholing. Although still finished 3rd 32 votes behind Labour.

They gained 6 seats in Portsmouth, which says alot about Portsmouth... and in turn alot about UKIP.

 

[StealthGoblin]

I think, in some cases, you have to reconsider your "mobility" and balance it against your desires.

A medium sized, 3 bed-roomed semi-detached, with medium sized garden around my area (Leicester) is about £115,000. (And yes, there's plenty of teaching jobs around here )

Two teachers just can't up sticks and move. To get a job we have to apply, then have to TEACH a lesson at say that school in Leicester as part of the interview process, go through the formal interview with the head and governors etc. Difficult enough for one person. Now imagine two teachers, teaching at the same school both trying to do that. Almost impossible.

We could live very happy lives elsewhere, but the logistics of making it happen would be a nightmare. We are planning to have children within a couple of years (hence the extra bedrooms) and I firmly believe you need a good family around you to do a good job of it. Especially for us seeing as we both work teacher hours (or will do once we both go full-time after maternity/paternity leaves).

 

[pulsemyne]

Classy bits from the Daily mail today. The referred to Miliband as "Mr Weirdo" and, of course, Red Ed (a title so laughable it's untrue). They never even mentioned the cons losing lots of seats. Funny that.

 

[Nicktendo86]

His own MPs are calling him weird, I wouldn't say the daily mail is unique.

 

[WayneMorse]

Lord Ashcroft's polling is predicting that Labour will gain 83 seats in 2015.

I think if Labour has a reasonable enough manifesto a lot of people will hold their noses with the two Eds and vote Labour anyway.

We're gonna be in for a surprise tomorrow.

 

[JonathanEx]

To be pedantic, Ashcroft's poll is a snapshot of now rather than a prediction for 2015. But reading through on the poll, there's a fair few interesting insights if people fancy it - http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/05/told-conhome-conference-battleground-poll/

Now the real news.

Michael Gove is dropping To Kill A Mockingbird and Of Mice And Men from the English syllabus. As they're not by British authors. http://t.co/o5DtLrydO0

 

[Nicktendo86]

Bookies will quadruple your money if you back labour to win the Euros Wayne, put you money where your mouth is?

 

[8bit]

To be pedantic, Ashcroft's poll is a snapshot of now rather than a prediction for 2015. But reading through on the poll, there's a fair few interesting insights if people fancy it - http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/05/told-conhome-conference-battleground-poll/

Now the real news.

Michael Gove is dropping To Kill A Mockingbird and Of Mice And Men from the English syllabus. As they're not by British authors. http://t.co/o5DtLrydO0

On the bright side children will be extremely familiar with the works of Orwell having been brought up living in them.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Now the real news.

Michael Gove is dropping To Kill A Mockingbird and Of Mice And Men from the English syllabus. As they're not by British authors. http://t.co/o5DtLrydO0

I don't give a shit about Of Mice and Men, but taking To Kill a Mockingbird off the syllabus is criminal. Great literature should not be avoided just because it is not British.

Horrible decision, I hope the headteachers association talks some sense into him and force the retention of To Kill a Mockingbird.

I absolutely understand removing Of Mice and Men though. It is the easy option for teachers and students alike. Easy to understand, not a lot of deeper meaning, thin, it's just generally the easy option which should no longer be available.

Removing The Crucible is a much bigger problem IMO, that is one of the greats. This is literary vandalism. If he doesn't like Of Mice and Men, junk it. Don't do it under the guise of wanting to introduce more British writers or some other such idiotic idea that takes away great literature from students.

 

[StealthGoblin]

I do wonder whether he'll actually bother to listen to teacher concerns now. Our strike has been postponed/cancelled after he was due to attend talks in person.

There probably weren't many teachers who voted Tory.

The school I work in has 8 teachers (including the head). Three are quitting the profession altogether at the end of this academic year (including the head).