Sir_Crocodile
Member
My god.
He looks like he's eaten a bacon sarnie
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UK PoliGAF thread of tell me about the rabbits again, Dave.
- Thread starter Chinner
- Start date
He looks like he's eaten a bacon sarnie
How can they possibly know, they don't even know what currency they will be paying in.
It might as well be monopoly money at this point.
UKIP are doing far better than the BNP ever did.
JonathanEx
Member
It's fine it looks like he won't be the MP for Hallam for long
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/nick-clegg-and-lib-dems-face-battle-for-survival
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/nick-clegg-and-lib-dems-face-battle-for-survival
i have. wish i hadn't.
Nicktendo86
Member
Great article on ukip on the guardian here, they speak to the founder of the party. He seems really bitter toward Farage so I don't know how much is true, but very entertaining read. Here is a flavour:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...-alan-sked-party-become-frankensteins-monster
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...-alan-sked-party-become-frankensteins-monster
When?
It's a decent place if you go the right places, it's had a lot of money spent on it very recently.
Clubbing there 10-15 years ago was fucking LEGENDARY.
Ukip as a thing doesn't matter, people are voting for what they represent.
JonathanEx
Member
The MP? We have more than one. David Blunkett is another.
Clegg's constituency is one of the wealthiest in the country.
WayneMorse
Banned
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...-alan-sked-party-become-frankensteins-monster
lol
Though to be honest I would probably go mad trying to explain someone basic grammar so good on him for teaching Farage.
lol
Though to be honest I would probably go mad trying to explain someone basic grammar so good on him for teaching Farage.
War Peaceman
You're a big guy.
That is such a petty point, Jesus. Oh no, he can't do apostrophes, his ideas must be terrible!
Nicktendo86
Member
Indeed. Itnhis nigger and nig not comments which, if true, should be what people call him out on.
Will be really interesting to see if he can maintain his 'bloke down the pub' image with the increased scrutiny he will get over the next year.
CyclopsRock
Member
Interesting thought: the Tories vote in the European election held up pretty well. In Scotland it actually went up. At this point, I'd be willing to bet quite a lot of money that Labour won't win the popular vote in 2015. That's not to say they won't get the most seats, especially if Ashcroft's marginal poll is to believed (which basically said that Labour are doing well in the marginals and no where else, but that's really the only place they need to do well) though my guy feeling is still a Tory minority.
Edit: and this is the first nationwide election in over 100 years that hasn't been won by either the Tories or Labour.
Edit: and this is the first nationwide election in over 100 years that hasn't been won by either the Tories or Labour.
Nicktendo86
Member
Interesting points Cyclops, you're quite right the Tory vote held up pretty well only 4% lower than 2009, for a party that has just presided over 4 years of austerity that is a good result. I still can't believe that if not for London they would have finished above Labour!
The Tories have to play this right, if they do I think they could get big rewards. The questions UKIP are asking are important, BBC says that Cameron has already been on the phone to other EU leaders to talk about the results, you could bet he is talking about renegotiations as well. He needs to get some firm goals set in stone that he can show the public, and in the process show how he is getting a good deal for Britain. I think we will have some more stuff on immigration as well, but how far that goes I don't know.
The talk of pacts with UKIP is interesting. Cameron said the Tories do not make deals and pacts, that is obviously bullshit as they are in coalition with the Lib Dems, he will do whatever it takes to retain power. Personally I am on the fence, part of me says no way should they do deals, if UKIP get embarrassed when their policies on the NHS, crime, education etc come under scrutiny some could say look, you are getting into bed with these nutters. On the other hand, they really cannot have UKIP splitting their vote in marginal seats and informal deals could be a big boost. Let them split the Labour vote in their heartlands. Really interesting 11 months ahead of us!
So in conclusion I think the Tories will win the most seats, a majority is out of the question but then again if you would have said they looked like being the largest party in 2015 a year ago I would have laughed in your face.
The Tories have to play this right, if they do I think they could get big rewards. The questions UKIP are asking are important, BBC says that Cameron has already been on the phone to other EU leaders to talk about the results, you could bet he is talking about renegotiations as well. He needs to get some firm goals set in stone that he can show the public, and in the process show how he is getting a good deal for Britain. I think we will have some more stuff on immigration as well, but how far that goes I don't know.
The talk of pacts with UKIP is interesting. Cameron said the Tories do not make deals and pacts, that is obviously bullshit as they are in coalition with the Lib Dems, he will do whatever it takes to retain power. Personally I am on the fence, part of me says no way should they do deals, if UKIP get embarrassed when their policies on the NHS, crime, education etc come under scrutiny some could say look, you are getting into bed with these nutters. On the other hand, they really cannot have UKIP splitting their vote in marginal seats and informal deals could be a big boost. Let them split the Labour vote in their heartlands. Really interesting 11 months ahead of us!
So in conclusion I think the Tories will win the most seats, a majority is out of the question but then again if you would have said they looked like being the largest party in 2015 a year ago I would have laughed in your face.
CyclopsRock
Member
I think any sort of coalition or even an informal agreement not to run is out of the question to be honest. The Tories won't want what'd effectively be a UKIP veto of their members (they'd end up being like the Tea Party in the Republican primaries - UKIP will only refrain from standing if the Tory candidate locally is one they can support, and that'll be toxic for the Tories. For their part, I don't think UKIP want that either. It's clear to me, given the massive spread from which they've grabbed support, that they're benefiting a lot from the none-of-the-above tranche that used to belong to the Lib Dems, and I can't see them giving that up, because any agreement would only occur in marginals (otherwise splitting the vote is much less of a problem), in which case the perception that UKIP' is the "fox in the Westminster hen house" seems laughable and they'll just lose anyway, with no vote splitting.
The very most that I can see happening is Tories and UKIP having a few dodgy late night phone calls that will impact where they direct their funding for campaigns. Anything more than that seems like too big-a sacrifice for too little gain.
The very most that I can see happening is Tories and UKIP having a few dodgy late night phone calls that will impact where they direct their funding for campaigns. Anything more than that seems like too big-a sacrifice for too little gain.
Nicktendo86
Member
Not sure why this has been glossed over the new today so far, Labour have talked endlessly about how the tories are doing nothing abotu tax avoidance.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27576626
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27576626
BBC said:
Sir_Crocodile
Member
^^ this is that stuff from the last statement that people weren't sure would ever be enforced? Great stuff.
Seems like Cameron is indeed trying to jockey for position on change in the eu off the election:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27583545
I hope he just sticks to stuff that makes the eu bureaucracy leaner and cheaper, and not stunts that will allow him to say he's "clawed powers back" or somesuch nonsense
Seems like Cameron is indeed trying to jockey for position on change in the eu off the election:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27583545
I hope he just sticks to stuff that makes the eu bureaucracy leaner and cheaper, and not stunts that will allow him to say he's "clawed powers back" or somesuch nonsense
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Heard a couple of interesting stories this morning. The UKIP manifesto is going to be much closer to a Labour one economically than to the Tories. Stuff like renationalisation of trains, water and power might make it in. The argument being that if German and French state owned companies can be successful at home and internationally then there is no reason for British ones not to follow the same route. It would also be billed as another "fuck you" to the EU who are in favour of privatisation of utilities across Europe. I heard today that UKIP may also come out in favour of a HS2 that starts in the north of England.
They may also drop controversial stuff like private health care and ape the French system instead which is essentially a private health care system paid out of the public purse.
If this is true then Farage is a much cannier operator than I had given him credit for. He would essentially be dropping the parts of UKIP policy that many working class people don't get along with (private health care and further privatisation of infrastructure/utilities) it's also stuff that is nationally popular. Renationalisation of the railway franchises has public support across the board for example (Lab, Con, Lib, UKIP voter all support it). If UKIP do drop some of the more economically right wing policies in favour of populist nationalism then UKIP could do very well in parts of England and Wales where the Tories are irrelevant. Doncaster would be a huge UKIP target if they go down this road.
They may also drop controversial stuff like private health care and ape the French system instead which is essentially a private health care system paid out of the public purse.
If this is true then Farage is a much cannier operator than I had given him credit for. He would essentially be dropping the parts of UKIP policy that many working class people don't get along with (private health care and further privatisation of infrastructure/utilities) it's also stuff that is nationally popular. Renationalisation of the railway franchises has public support across the board for example (Lab, Con, Lib, UKIP voter all support it). If UKIP do drop some of the more economically right wing policies in favour of populist nationalism then UKIP could do very well in parts of England and Wales where the Tories are irrelevant. Doncaster would be a huge UKIP target if they go down this road.
Sir_Crocodile
Member
That would also take a giant dump on Sked's new party if true. Renationalisation of rail is one of their big policies.
PJV3
Member
I am very doubtful that would ever come to fruition, I could see him saying it, but not actually doing it. What a crazy world when Labour are allergic to State ownership and the right wing libertarians are in favour of it.
anonymous_abc
Member
I thought they don't read their own manifesto?!
Sir_Crocodile
Member
It's a pretty easy thing to do though, just don't renew franchises and hire on the existing staff. Very easy promise to keep, and probably better for both safety and budget.
PJV3
Member
I'm totally cool with it, I'm just interested how that would be handled by Labour, actually I'm saddened thinking about it a bit more.
Nicktendo86
Member
Very interesting zomg, I've often wondered if they will try to park on labour's lawn. Would be more in their interests in terms of the EU to have a Tory government rather than a labour one, makes sense to go after labour seats. The local and euro elections show they can take votes off labour. I wonder if this would work into an informal pact with the tories?
Most exciting thing is the sheer unpredictability of the coming year, the mainstream parties are really being shaken up.
Most exciting thing is the sheer unpredictability of the coming year, the mainstream parties are really being shaken up.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
I find it very unlikely that Farage would damage his party's position with working class voters and enter into any kind of pact with the Cons. Makes literally no sense for UKIP to have any kind of electoral pact with the Tories.
If what I heard is true and UKIP are going to park their tanks on Labour's lawn then it helps them to have Ed Miliband as leader of the Labour party. Farage would be at home in any northern pub having a pint of bitter with locals, Ed Miliband (or Dave for that matter) would not. Moving towards the populist nationalism economic platform would be very difficult for Labour to fight, the Tories down in the south west would find it very tough as well.
If what I heard is true and UKIP are going to park their tanks on Labour's lawn then it helps them to have Ed Miliband as leader of the Labour party. Farage would be at home in any northern pub having a pint of bitter with locals, Ed Miliband (or Dave for that matter) would not. Moving towards the populist nationalism economic platform would be very difficult for Labour to fight, the Tories down in the south west would find it very tough as well.
Sir_Crocodile
Member
Yeah.
I really have no idea what current labour would do. Old Labour I understood, New Labour I understood, but I've never really understood what policies the brownites believe in.
Resurrect John Smith
PJV3
Member
If it wasn't for the fact I find most of what he says repugnant, I would almost wish him well.
CyclopsRock
Member
I think this is pretty important. They're faced with the prospect of going left, or going right (in simplistic terms ofc) and aside from the things you mentioned, you have Cameron (popular), a surprisingly disciplined party (if you ignore Carswell and David Davis, natch) and an effective campaign machine that's well funded on one side, and... Miliband on the other side. I think they smell blood, and it's gonna be a lot easier to extract it from Labour.
UKIP in my home town, hmmm. Not sure what I think about that. Oh well, anything to get rid of our resident idiot....
Sir_Crocodile
Member
Have cash and bone quietened down now?
PJV3
Member
I still think it will be a hung parliament at the end of the day. I don't detect enough enthusiasm for any party. UKIP damage the tories far more than they could labour, And they seem to be more steadfast in not returning to the Conservatives until Cameron is gone.
The way things are at the moment I have no confidence in that prediction or any other really.
If Ukip are smart they will go after the labour voter, more chance of getting the referendum they want.
The Lib Dems seriously need a change of leadership right now. As long as Clegg is leader, there will always receive unpopular support. A change of leadership might take time to get off the ground, but at least it would get the ball rolling before the next election's campaign. I guess it doesn't help Clegg is Deputy PM at them moment. Most of the criticism they have received in the past few years from political swingers/bystanders/causal observers is directed at Clegg himself, and not the party.
Sir_Crocodile
Member
who would become leader? uncy vince?
He's past his prime, it's time for new blood. Since Ed is swaying the Labour position and policies more and more to the left, the Lib Dems could reposition themselves with a relatively strong liberal/centerist position.
Sir_Crocodile
Member
But the only guy like that who has a good chance of winning is tim farron, and every time I see him on telly he comes off as supremely unlikeable.
PJV3
Member
Yeah, reading LibDemVoice the party is in paralysis over the leadership, they don't want the orange wing but other candidates come with baggage. Charles Kennedy as a caretaker leader is about the only semi popular alternative.
CyclopsRock
Member
Yeah, he does seem like he's a giant inflatable cock.
There is only one answer.
Time for a new start.
A fresh change.
A strong leader.
Oops, wrong one. I mean...
Haha. Do heads of parties usually try for leadership contests?
Haha.
I do like David Laws.
But his views may be a bit too extreme for the party i.e to conservative.
War Peaceman
You're a big guy.
What zomg suggested UKIP sounds like a brilliant tactical move on paper, but I wonder how effectively they can do it. It would require a lot of discipline, may alienate potential Tory defectors (perhaps these people are never going to vote in a general election for UKIP anyway?) and risks making them look opportunistic. They have thrived through authenticity and have never managed to remain disciplined. I'm not convinced they can pull it off. Plus what about their party ranks which are largely libertarian and noisy?
haha:
TELEGRAPH
Mr Miliband was asked by The Telegraph to give one word to define his leadership following attacks from within his party that he is too wordy and academic.
The Labour leader, who shook his head and tutted after being asked the question, said: I'll give you two - One Nation.
Mr Miliband then used 111 words to explain what he meant by One Nation.
TELEGRAPH
Mr Miliband was asked by The Telegraph to give one word to define his leadership following attacks from within his party that he is too wordy and academic.
The Labour leader, who shook his head and tutted after being asked the question, said: I'll give you two - One Nation.
Mr Miliband then used 111 words to explain what he meant by One Nation.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
They will do it under the guise of anti-EU action. Britain has been forced to privatise industries which other countries have not. Our energy sector is mostly owned by European state companies, our railways are run by French, German and other state owned railway companies. The German banking sector has a massive implied state subsidy which has never been tackled properly while the our state owned banks have been forced to sell assets early and for lower prices than necessary.
This is all very easy to achieve and UKIP voters support state ownership of utilities and railways, ex Tories and Labour alike. The transition wouldn't be so difficult from their current policies to populist nationalism because their voters and members support it.
Also, Ed Miliband. Lol.
Sir_Crocodile
Member
Jim Hacker did, that's good enough for me
Wow
Sounded like parody so I had to look it up:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...mself-in-one-word-and-replies-One-Nation.html
Still sounds like parody.
WayneMorse
Banned
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/nick-clegg-and-lib-dems-face-battle-for-survival
Polling shows Clegg could lose his seat in 2015.
Nicktendo86
Member
Fucking telegraph and its 20 articles a month bullshit. I refuse to pay!
What's this? A tory paper trying to make the labour leader look bad? Well shock and horror!
Lets flag down a cab and head for Reality street. Firstly Ukid are not going to do well in the next election although they could end up beating the libs if they fail to dump the moron that is Clegg, but it will not be some massive change. Secondly Labour will win, not by a huge amount but probably about 20-30 seats majority. It could be higher if Labour goes for policies like Renationalisation of rail and comes out with a costed plan of how to do it.
Nothing about the recent elections was too bad for Labour and ties in with the idea of a small majority government. Especially if the polls regarding marginals is true because that's where you win elections.
Delusibeta
Banned
The irony is that the EU didn't do any of that privatization, it was mostly Thatcher.
War Peaceman
You're a big guy.
What you say is very persuasive. But it is easier said than done. When have UKIP convinced any major group of any policy besides a murky anti-EU/anti-immigration/anti-establishment feeling of general resentment? It strikes me as a very cinematic move, but one that is harder to do when the people involved are real and not chess pieces. But I do like some of these ideas, so I wouldn't be displeased to be proven wrong.
Nicktendo86
Member
No chance. An opposition doesn't loose or barely win mid term elections then go on to a majority at a general election.