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[Jezbollah]

Here's a question: Given that there is a possibility of two elections in a short time of each other, does Ed resign or get booted out after losing the first, leaving the short period of time for the new leader to establish him/herself, or does he try and cling on and try and win the second election after losing the first?

 

[War Peaceman]

David Milliband is a horrible, slimy man. You do not want him back. Even if he is more 'electable'. He's poison.

 

[Maledict]

David Milliband is a horrible, slimy man. You do not want him back. Even if he is more 'electable'. He's poison.

So is Ed, and to be fair when you talk to senior labour folks, and read the books, David might be slimed and ambitious but the trifecta of Brown / Balls / E Miliband were actually incredibly unpleasant human beings. Ed looks and comes across as a bookish wonk whose out of touch, but when it came to sticking the knife into Blair and the entire 'two competing governments' fiasco, along with the bullying and the poison and the knifing, Ed was right up at the top.

He was never a clean break from the past, or even close to it. As plastic and slimey as David is, it's Ed who was a complete shit working under Brown.

(To be fair - a number of folk said that Brown had that effect on everyone working for him. Good people went into that office and just got sucked into this vortex of psychological damage and came out like mini-Browns. People have even whispered that Damien McBride used to be a decent person, although that's probably pushing the boat out a bit... ;-) ).

 

[zomgbbqftw]

It is wishful thinking from lefties if they believe Labour is ruthless enough to knife Ed. The mechanism just doesn't exist within the Labour party's framework. It would take several simultaneous resignations by shadow cabinet members to force him to resign. It's not like the Tories where they can deliver a coup with a few letters to Graham Brady. It would be more damaging for the party to force a resignation than to let him continue, which is why Burnham, Balls, Cooper and Reeves are still there. Labour would get utterly destroyed if they forcibly removed Ed this close to the election. The public hates infighting more than anything else.

 

[Maledict]

It is wishful thinking from lefties if they believe Labour is ruthless enough to knife Ed. The mechanism just doesn't exist within the Labour party's framework. It would take several simultaneous resignations by shadow cabinet members to force him to resign. It's not like the Tories where they can deliver a coup with a few letters to Graham Brady. It would be more damaging for the party to force a resignation than to let him continue, which is why Burnham, Balls, Cooper and Reeves are still there. Labour would get utterly destroyed if they forcibly removed Ed this close to the election. The public hates infighting more than anything else.

Yep - have been saying this for a long time. The Labour Party purged itself of the will for open decapitations of leaders decades ago, and they won't go back to that. Instead we get the highly toxic behaviour we saw under Blair & brown, and now Miliband.

It also doesn't make sense for any of the potential leaders to try pushing him out, to do so is incredibly high risk with very low chances of pay-off - it makes much more sense to wait it out, lose the election and then go for the leadership. It's the David Miliband approach (and we saw how well that worked out).

I do disagree slightly on the electoral suicide thing though - if they did do it, I think we would be in uncharted territory. Yes the public hate infighting, but they already see that every day in the press and we know they hate one thing even more - Ed Miliband. I'm not saying it would in anyway work or have a positive benefit, but it don't think we could completely write it off. Certainly it's the only thing I think that has any chance of getting the a majority at the next election.

 

[Guerrillas in the Mist]

So the £1.7 billion bill from the EU has been extended to next September... conveniently after the General Election.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Here's a question: Given that there is a possibility of two elections in a short time of each other, does Ed resign or get booted out after losing the first, leaving the short period of time for the new leader to establish him/herself, or does he try and cling on and try and win the second election after losing the first?

Well most of us prophesising two close elections are suggesting it'd be a Tory minority/coalition of death. But what if it's not? I think that depends on who ends up getting the most seats (though still short of a majority). If Labour are 5 seats off a majority, the arguments to get rid of him lose a bit of their sting because he'll be far more likely to be PM in a Labour/LD coalition. But at the same time, what do they think will change in the intervening 6-12 month period between the elections? Maybe he'll start appearing "Prime Ministerial" given that he'd be, like, the PM, and obviously governments have some advantage in the run up to elections but who knows.

 

[Uzzy]

So the £1.7 billion bill from the EU has been extended to next September... conveniently after the General Election.

Seems to have been halved to £850m too, with the rebate making up the rest.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Seems to have been halved to £850m too, with the rebate making up the rest.

We should just tank our economy in the interim. Then we'll end up not having to pay at all, and actually getting money back.

I should be Chancellor.

 

[Sir_Crocodile]

We should just tank our economy in the interim. Then we'll end up not having to pay at all, and actually getting money back.

I should be Chancellor.

You could pay yourself the warm pasty tax Quiche

 

[Volotaire]

Absolute fucking * the lot of them.

The more atrocious thing than this is that some of the elected MP's who abused taxpayer's money may never face any scrutiny under the law.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/new...-after-paperwork-destroyed-by-Parliament.html

MPs accused of abusing the unreformed expenses system will escape official investigation after the House of Commons authorities destroyed all record of their claims, the Telegraph can reveal.
John Bercow, the Speaker, faces accusations he has presided over a fresh cover-up of MPs' expenses after tens of thousands of pieces of paperwork relating to claims made before 2010 under the scandal-hit regime were shredded.
Members of the public who have written to Kathryn Hudson, the standards watchdog, to raise concerns about their MP’s claims have been told there can be no investigation due to lack of evidence

It's hard under this type of democracy (or even a democracy) where we elect MP's who are nowhere near specialists (glorified bureaucrats) in their field to Parliament as their interest in a large amount of issues will correlate to their personal interest/academic knowledge in the subject, the popularity of the subject among the public and the media attention given to it. It is also the problem of allowing the freedom to attend any court session. There will be simply be MP's who do not vote on bills or do no attend these debate sessions and take the payroll. Then there is the issue of splitting up your time among your local constituents issues and the nationwide issues in Parliament. It's an inefficient and ineffective system that needs at least some change probed into. Of course, because some relate to the fundamentals of freedom of speech, a lot of these problems will continue to exist.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

You could pay yourself the warm pasty tax Quiche

For me, Pastygate was the biggest political scandal of this parliament. I'm not voting Tory purely because of it.

 

[CharmingCharlie]

Seems to have been halved to £850m too, with the rebate making up the rest.

This seems a bit unclear to me. As far as I can see they have split the bill in two and we are paying 2 x 850million instead of 1 payment of 1.7billion. It is very unclear and my suspicious are aroused further with the use of "this is a REAL result". Whenever a politician uses the word "real" you know it's bullshit.

Either way I personally want out of this glorified squash club now. We can no longer afford the subscription fees.

 

[Nicktendo86]

This seems a bit unclear to me. As far as I can see they have split the bill in two and we are paying 2 x 850million instead of 1 payment of 1.7billion. It is very unclear and my suspicious are aroused further with the use of "this is a REAL result". Whenever a politician uses the word "real" you know it's bullshit.

Either way I personally want out of this glorified squash club now. We can no longer afford the subscription fees.

No the total is £850 which is being split into two payments with no interest.


Edit: well the bill is still 1.7 buy we are getting half of that back via a rebate which is in addition to our normal rebate so we are effectively paying £850. Still too much in my opinion but pleasantly surprised they got it down at all.

Secind edit: actually I don't think it is an additional rebate and they are just using the usual rebate to knock it down. I have no idea. Ignore me

 

[Sir_Crocodile]

For me, Pastygate was the biggest political scandal of this parliament. I'm not voting Tory purely because of it.

For me it was tuesday

 

[CharmingCharlie]

No the total is £850 which is being split into two payments with no interest.


Edit: well the bill is still 1.7 buy we are getting half of that back via a rebate which is in addition to our normal rebate so we are effectively paying £850. Still too much in my opinion but pleasantly surprised they got it down at all.

Ah I get it we are making 2 payments of £425 million to cover half of the 1.7 billion. Then we are getting less of a rebate to cover the other half of the 1.7 billion. So in laymens terms we are still paying the 1.7 billion but we are using a bit of accounting bullshit to try and hide the fact we are still paying 1.7 billion.

Yup roll on the EU referendum I will definitely be voting to leave. That is assuming we actually get a referendum when it looks like a shoe in for a "leave Europe" result after this ridiculous money grab by the EU.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

For me it was tuesday

 

[Nicktendo86]

This sums up the situation pretty well.
http://openeuropeblog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/the-17bn-question-whos-right-osborne.html?m=1

 

[CyclopsRock]

I don't care much about the expenses scandal. My understanding is that there was an implicit understanding that MP's deserved a pay rise but that it was politically impossible to actually do so (and I'm talking about back in the 80's and 90's here) so they made the expenses system such that it effectively increased the pay of the MPs by decreasing their living expenses.

Tbh how much MPs are paid isn't that relevant to me. It's an absolute drop in the ocean and if it goes even a tiny way to stopping people from avoiding politics, then it's worth it imo.

 

[Volotaire]

I don't care much about the expenses scandal. My understanding is that there was an implicit understanding that MP's deserved a pay rise but that it was politically impossible to actually do so (and I'm talking about back in the 80's and 90's here) so they made the expenses system such that it effectively increased the pay of the MPs by decreasing their living expenses.

Tbh how much MPs are paid isn't that relevant to me. It's an absolute drop in the ocean and if it goes even a tiny way to stopping people from avoiding politics, then it's worth it imo.

That's an interesting observation. But even if this implicit understanding were true, I still think the MP's who claimed ludicrous amounts should be probed. And by ludicrous I mean claims over and above the expected MP pay rise for that year, by this above measure.

 

[BKK]

No the total is £850 which is being split into two payments with no interest.


Edit: well the bill is still 1.7 buy we are getting half of that back via a rebate which is in addition to our normal rebate so we are effectively paying £850. Still too much in my opinion but pleasantly surprised they got it down at all.

Secind edit: actually I don't think it is an additional rebate and they are just using the usual rebate to knock it down. I have no idea. Ignore me

Yeah, the original £1.7B (backdated over the last 20 years) didn't take into account the UK rebate which also applies to that amount. So after that rebate is applied the actual amount is "only" £850m. So they didn't actually negotiate the amount down (it should have originally been reported as only £850m), just the payment time (interest free). They still reserve the right to have that amount lowered if they can show that the amount was calculated incorrectly.

 

[Uzzy]

This sums up the situation pretty well.
http://openeuropeblog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/the-17bn-question-whos-right-osborne.html?m=1

Ok, so. The UK was presented with a bill for £1.7bn due for payment by December 2014. We would have gotten a rebate on that payment, to be calculated in the spring. Now, we're going to pay the bill next year, and have the rebate taken off the bill immediately, which accounts for the decreased payment.

But from the looks of it, the rebate would always have applied, so we'd still have paid a net sum of £850m under the old system. We'd just have paid £1.7bn now, and gotten the rebate back next year.

 

[BKK]

Ok, so. The UK was presented with a bill for £1.7bn due for payment by December 2014. We would have gotten a rebate on that payment, to be calculated in the spring. Now, we're going to pay the bill next year, and have the rebate taken off the bill immediately, which accounts for the decreased payment.

But from the looks of it, the rebate would always have applied, so we'd still have paid a net sum of £850m under the old system. We'd just have paid £1.7bn now, and gotten the rebate back next year.

Right, so there should be a few millions savings due to interest, but that's it. I guess that is a small financial benefit for the country, but the Conservative leadership are hoping that the political benefits will be larger. That may or may not prove to be correct, Conservative backbenchers and MEPs are already criticising this "deal".

 

[JesseEwiak]

Interesting poll showing how American & UK view moral views on taxation. Basically, US Democrat's and UK Conservative's agree with each other, and Labor & the GOP are on the fringe.

 

[WayneMorse]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/08/ed-miliband-crisis-labour-mps-back-leadership-change

With this Miliband has reached the point of no return, either Johnson challenges him or Labour will lose the next election.

 

[pulsemyne]

If it's true then it would be good. Johnson is way better than Ed. Also I think that if it does happen then labour will cruise the next election.

 

[f0rk]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/08/ed-miliband-crisis-labour-mps-back-leadership-change

With this Miliband has reached the point of no return, either Johnson challenges him or Labour will lose the next election.

I don't think Labour are expecting to win the election either way, they are expecting to be able to defend the seats they do have better with another leader.

 

[CyclopsRock]

I'm not sure. Johnson is hugely likeable, but I don't think he's a natural leader nor a particularly heavyweight politician. He's perfect Question Time fodder.

 

[Uzzy]

Well, it'd certainly be good for the local area to have the PM be representing Hull. But really, I don't think Johnson would be interested. He seems happy in his current position, as a respected elder of the party. He quit as shadow chancellor after three and a half months (and I'd expect that point to be hit constantly if he did take the job), and he decided to not stand for party leader in the 2010 contest, so I don't think he's really up for the top position and what would be a hard fought, probably losing campaign.

 

[Jezbollah]

All this talk about Labour's leadership is great timing for the Conservatives considering the EU bill settlement.

 

[Nicktendo86]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/08/ed-miliband-crisis-labour-mps-back-leadership-change

With this Miliband has reached the point of no return, either Johnson challenges him or Labour will lose the next election.

Its all a right wing media conspiracy I yell you!

Don't worry, we have a twitter hash tag for him. He will be fine.

 

[Masquerader]

Silly Labour. It's such chaos for them.

... This election is going to be SO close because it's not yet truly known how many people hate the Conservatives! I'm actually really excited for it. But at the same time, bloody nervous. We've got five real parties with a chance to seize at least some degree of power. One is incompetent, one is out of touch, one is racist and sexist, one is a complete husk, and one is absolutely unknown in almost every aspect. What a weird shake-up this is.

 

[fizzelopeguss]

Seems to have been halved to £850m too, with the rebate making up the rest.

George Osborne ✔ @George_Osborne
Follow
As PM said EU bill unacceptable. Now we've halved the bill, delayed the bill & pay no interest on the bill. Result for Britain
1:41 PM - 7 Nov 2014

What a feeble political class we have.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/08/ed-miliband-crisis-labour-mps-back-leadership-change

With this Miliband has reached the point of no return, either Johnson challenges him or Labour will lose the next election.

Good, let nu labour implode, never to return.

 

[Jackpot]

I'm trying to think of a worst political leader in modern times than Miliband. IDS?

 

[Jezbollah]

I'm trying to think of a worst political leader in modern times than Miliband. IDS?

I'd say Miliband is worse than IDS. just.

 

[War Peaceman]

It is a hard pick. IDS is a massive cunt, though, so I'd go for him.

 

[CyclopsRock]

I just saw a short bit of Ken Livingstone on TV defending Lutfor as "funding the poorest parts of society." Fuck off Ken you slithery twat, everyone hates you.

 

[dapperbandit]

I'm trying to think of a worst political leader in modern times than Miliband. IDS?

Hollande?

 

[kmag]

For all the mumping about Milliband, if he'd tried something so transparently craven as Cameron and May are trying in the Commons tonight in regards to Camerons promise over a vote on the European Arrest Warrant, he'd be rightly eviscerated for it.

Cameron is running shit scared of UKIP and his Eurosceptic backbenchers.

 

[CyclopsRock]

For all the mumping about Milliband, if he'd tried something so transparently craven as Cameron and May are trying in the Commons tonight in regards to Camerons promise over a vote on the European Arrest Warrant, he'd be rightly eviscerated for it.

Cameron is running shit scared of UKIP and his Eurosceptic backbenchers.

It's an absolute disgrace. It's such a bizarre issue, too. I don't know anyone in the real world who gives a shit about the EAW.

 

[kmag]

The only impressive thing about May is the utter conviction with which she sells the bullshit she's asked to peddle. Her tenure at the Home Office has been disastrous, but she just brazens her way through it.

 

[War Peaceman]

The only impressive thing about May is the utter conviction with which she sells the bullshit she's asked to peddle. Her tenure at the Home Office has been disastrous, but she just brazens her way through it.

The Home Office just sounds like the most awful organisation around. Incompetence at every stage. Not to defend May, but it must be hard being Minister of such an ineptly run place.

 

[Uzzy]

For all the mumping about Milliband, if he'd tried something so transparently craven as Cameron and May are trying in the Commons tonight in regards to Camerons promise over a vote on the European Arrest Warrant, he'd be rightly eviscerated for it.

Cameron is running shit scared of UKIP and his Eurosceptic backbenchers.

It's a disgrace. I can't think of many other parliamentary actions like this that have been as disgusting.

 

[Jezbollah]

Mr WMD Dossier says "hi"

 

[Sir_Crocodile]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30019259

Dramatic unemployment fall with predominatnly full time jobs and possibly average earnings growth higher then inflation.

 

[Nicktendo86]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30019259

Dramatic unemployment fall with predominatnly full time jobs and possibly average earnings growth higher then inflation.

Bu bu but zero hour contracts! It's all a lie I tells you.

IPSOS Mori poll has the Tories on a 3 point lead today with just 13% if people believing that Ed is up to the job of PM.

#webacked

 

[WayneMorse]

Yea Labour is kind of fucked now that Johnson didn't save them.

They can't even pretend they think Miliband would be a competent PM.

 

[Nicktendo86]

His poll ratings are now the lowest ever, even behind Foot! I mean my god could it get much worse?

He has another relaunch speech tomorrow. How many relaunches has that been now?

 

[Sir_Crocodile]

He has another relaunch speech tomorrow. How many relaunches has that been now?

I dunno, how many days have there been that end in the letter y since he was elected?.

 

[Nicktendo86]

Sweet jesus!

Astounding. Latest opinion poll for Scotland from Ipsos Mori:

SNP: 59% (+21)
Lab: 14% (-19)
Con: 12% (-5)
Green: 8% (+6)
Lib: 4% (-1)