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[Deleted member 231381]

a.k.a. "why has Labour's vote share collapsed!?". That's a good 3% gone right there! I genuinely don't think it has much to do with Miliband - he was already 'priced in'. People knew he was bad, and have done for a while, and still intended to vote Labour by a good 3 point lead until quite recently. This is where Labour is dying - Scotland. Note that on that vote share, the SNP win every single Scottish seat. Labour doesn't have an Ed Miliband problem so much as it has a Scotland problem, and Alan Johnson won't change that in the slightest. I'm not even really sure what they can do - the frontrunner to become leader is Jim Murphy and that's the shitiest idea I've ever heard. This poll is also the reason nobody will challenge Ed - none of the other contenders getting in will change the situation vis a vis Scotland, so it's just too risky to commit.

Also, that poll does carry some worry for the Conservatives: it guarantees the a majority government will be impossible without the SNP unless the Conservatives can start getting around a 38-9% share of the vote in England.

 

[CyclopsRock]

a.k.a. "why has Labour's vote share collapsed!?". That's a good 3% gone right there! I genuinely don't think it has much to do with Miliband - he was already 'priced in'. People knew he was bad, and have done for a while, and still intended to vote Labour by a good 3 point lead until quite recently. This is where Labour is dying - Scotland. Note that on that vote share, the SNP win every single Scottish seat. Labour doesn't have an Ed Miliband problem so much as it has a Scotland problem, and Alan Johnson won't change that in the slightest. I'm not even really sure what they can do - the frontrunner to become leader is Jim Murphy and that's the shitiest idea I've ever heard. This poll is also the reason nobody will challenge Ed - none of the other contenders getting in will change the situation vis a vis Scotland, so it's just too risky to commit.

Also, that poll does carry some worry for the Conservatives: it guarantees the a majority government will be impossible without the SNP unless the Conservatives can start getting around a 38-9% share of the vote in England.

Hm, it's not out the question. They got 40% in 2010, though naturally that was sans the UKIP that we have today.

And I think you're right that Ed is "priced in" but I don't think the disunity within the Labour party necessarily is. I think we all agree that the public don't like infighting and a disunited party, so even if their view of Ed doesn't change, the fact they see headlines and top-line news stories on the 10pm News of "Alan Johnson has today reiterated his lack of desire to challenge Ed Miliband for the Labour Leadership and has said the party needs to get behind its leader", it doesn't exactly make one feel like the party is behind the leader.

Finally, re: the inflation and wages, I seem to remember a few months back zomg mentioning that part of the reason for the suppressed wage growth was actually due to wages falling in the finance/banking sector. That makes it one of those weird situations where - like poverty going down due to unemployment rising - bankers getting paid less ends up splashing on the headlines as basically a bad thing. Strip them out as a group and I seem to remember the picture being much rosier (Though not necessarily great).

 

[Sir_Crocodile]

Note that on that vote share, the SNP win every single Scottish seat. Labour doesn't have an Ed Miliband problem so much as it has a Scotland problem, and Alan Johnson won't change that in the slightest. I'm not even really sure what they can do - the frontrunner to become leader is Jim Murphy and that's the shitiest idea I've ever heard. This poll is also the reason nobody will challenge Ed - none of the other contenders getting in will change the situation vis a vis Scotland, so it's just too risky to commit.

Johnson would have presumably brought in proper left wing policies and not vacillated though - wouldn't that have made it somewhat easier for Scottish Labour to campaign?

Ed wouldn't be as deep in this mess if he hadn't practically ignored Jon Cruddas's policy review. I still have no real idea what I'd get if I vote labour other then a clown as pm.

 

[Maledict]

The idea that Ed shouldn't be challenged because the public don't like infighting is ludicrous to be honest.

He's astonishingly unpopular. Surveys from a variety of sources tell us he's one of the mos tunpopular leaders on record.

At the same time, every day there's another headline about potential challenges to Ed, people denying rumours, whispers of plots etc. Why do politicians not realise that these have exactly the same effect? I mean, Gordon Brown never actually came out and challenged Tony Blair but their conflict had a marked effect on the polls and perceptions especially near the end.

Right now they have a festering wound which just generates bad press for them every single day - and it's not going to go away. Unfortunately, rational behaviour prevents any of the potential leaders from challenging him - far better to wait until after the election, then challenge and win and aim for victory in 2020. Additionally, that means you don't have to implement a further round of backbreaking cuts...

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Johnson would have presumably brought in proper left wing policies and not vacillated though - wouldn't that have made it somewhat easier for Scottish Labour to campaign?

Ed wouldn't be as deep in this mess if he hadn't practically ignored Jon Cruddas's policy review. I still have no real idea what I'd get if I vote labour other then a clown as pm.

I doubt the first thing. Nothing against Johnson, but if you look at the people suspected of trying to set him up as a stalking-horse, they are heavily weighted towards the Blairite wing of the party. That's not to say there aren't some people from the left in there, but they're certainly a minority. A lot of this is David Milibandites trying to restore their position after their careers got killed when Ed won. This is not the wing of the Labour party that brings in proper left wing policies. It's the wing of the Labour Party that so badly misunderstood Scotland we ended up in the situation we did today.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

a.k.a. "why has Labour's vote share collapsed!?". That's a good 3% gone right there! I genuinely don't think it has much to do with Miliband - he was already 'priced in'. People knew he was bad, and have done for a while, and still intended to vote Labour by a good 3 point lead until quite recently. This is where Labour is dying - Scotland. Note that on that vote share, the SNP win every single Scottish seat. Labour doesn't have an Ed Miliband problem so much as it has a Scotland problem, and Alan Johnson won't change that in the slightest. I'm not even really sure what they can do - the frontrunner to become leader is Jim Murphy and that's the shitiest idea I've ever heard. This poll is also the reason nobody will challenge Ed - none of the other contenders getting in will change the situation vis a vis Scotland, so it's just too risky to commit.

Also, that poll does carry some worry for the Conservatives: it guarantees the a majority government will be impossible without the SNP unless the Conservatives can start getting around a 38-9% share of the vote in England.

Ed is not priced in. How is your prediction that the polls would return to their pre-conference levels going?

Every time Ed is on TV or out in public Labour's position drops, over the summer they had a strong series of poll leads. Ed was nowhere to be seen. Unless Labour can find a way to hide him away throughout the campaign Labour are done.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Ed is not priced in. How is your prediction that the polls would return to their pre-conference levels going?

They more or less have. Look at all the non-Ipsos MORI polls. YouGov just gave Labour a 3% lead, as an example. The last few polls from various different pollsters have given Labour +3, +2, +1, +1, and -3 from YouGov, Populus, ICM, Ashcroft and Ipsos MORI respectively. What's happening now is a Scottish thing; it has fuck all to do with conferences and you're over-inflating both the value of Cameron and the lack of value of Miliband if you think they had much to do with that. Labour's loss in Scotland since the referendum is responsible for about 3% of their current vote-share. If you restored them to how well they were doing in Scotland prior to the referendum, but left them untouched in England, they'd be on about a 4% lead averaged across all the pollsters - exactly what they were before the conferences and referendum.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

They more or less have. Look at all the non-Ipsos MORI polls. YouGov just gave Labour a 3% lead, as an example. The last few polls from various different pollsters have given Labour +3, +2, +1, +1, and -3 from YouGov, Populus, ICM, Ashcroft and Ipsos MORI respectively. What's happening now is a Scottish thing; it has fuck all to do with conferences and you're over-inflating both the value of Cameron and the lack of value of Miliband if you think they had much to do with that. Labour's loss in Scotland since the referendum is responsible for about 3% of their current vote-share. If you restored them to how well they were doing in Scotland prior to the referendum, but left them untouched in England, they'd be on about a 4% lead - exactly what they were before the conferences and referendum.

Bullshit. You fucked up your prediction and now you are trying to force the data to fit. It doesn't. Ed is the worst rated party leader in post-war history. He is going to lead Labour to their worst ever score, what's worse is that there is no viable challenger. Ashcroft is Con +1 btw, not Lab +1. Two polls are showing a Con lead. A return to pre-conference polling my arse.

 

[Nicktendo86]

You said Crab that Labour would settle back onto a regular +6 rhythm post conference season. That clearly has not happened and it is also clear that Labour's polling take a nosedive every time Ed has a sustained presence on the television. Come April/May I have no idea what those polls will look like.

By all accounts Ed did ok in his speech today and delivered a speech that he should have done during the conference. There were audible hisses from the Labour acolytes in the audience though when members of the press asked questions which is, frankly, pathetic.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Regardless, I still don't see it lasting beyond the end of the week. Labour will win Heywood and Middleton, the conferences will be forgotten, and we'll drift back to 33 / 35 / 8 / 14 / 6 like we have been for the last 9 months or so.

EDIT: disregard correction, can't read.

never said a 6 point lead, you're putting words in my mouth. This is my unaltered prediction for what would happen after the conferences from the actual time of the conferences (you can check the times down at the bottom). let's look at the latest youGov, shall we? 32 / 35 / 15 / 7. Oh, look, wow, how well do those match!?

 

[Nicktendo86]

Ok six points might have been an exaggeration but you said it would settle down into a regular 33-35 lead and that has not happened so far, it has bounced around as I thought it would between 1-2 point leads and even a couple of polls with a Tory lead.

At this point of the electoral cycle in 2009 the Tories had a 14 point lead but could only manage to be largest party in a hung parliament in the end. It's pretty clear that Labour have nowhere near the momentum they need.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

never said a 6 point lead, you're putting words in my mouth. This is my unaltered prediction for what would happen after the conferences from the actual time of the conferences (you can check the times down at the bottom). let's look at the latest youGov, shall we? 32 / 25 / 15 / 7. Oh, look, wow, how well do those match!?

Cherry picking data. How desperate.

 

[zero shift]

How did the nationalized industries in the 1960s and 1970s perform?

I had one poster chip in on another thread, I'm curious what UK GAF thinks to gain more insight.

 

[pulsemyne]

Ok six points might have been an exaggeration but you said it would settle down into a regular 33-35 lead and that has not happened so far, it has bounced around as I thought it would between 1-2 point leads and even a couple of polls with a Tory lead.

At this point of the electoral cycle in 2009 the Tories had a 14 point lead but could only manage to be largest party in a hung parliament in the end. It's pretty clear that Labour have nowhere near the momentum they need.

Yes but the problem with now and then is that UKiP are screwing up polls a lot. No one has a clue if there will be a big UKiP vote in the next election or if some of them will split off to the tories or labour.

 

[pulsemyne]

How did the nationalized industries in the 1960s and 1970s perform?

I had one poster chip in on another thread, I'm curious what UK GAF thinks to gain more insight.

Like a lot of industries some performed better than others. Some were terrible and some were not. Most performed as they should but where never exceptional. Some industries where blighted by over zealous unions. While unions are a good thing, during the 19070's unions had become rather powerful and flexed their muscles a lot and it hurt not just industry but also sometimes even their own members.

 

[Nicktendo86]

Tories with one point yougov lead today.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Tories with one point yougov lead today.

Where do you check these? On the pollsters' websites?

I look at ukpollingreport every morning, but this thread always seems to get updated first.

 

[Nicktendo86]

Where do you check these? On the pollsters' websites?

I look at ukpollingreport every morning, but this thread always seems to get updated first.

Twitter feed

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Twitter feed

Ahh, that's my problem - I'm not on the Tweeters.

Still, as long as you guys are I'll get the news anyway.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Ahh, that's my problem - I'm not on the Tweeters.

Still, as long as you guys are I'll get the news anyway.

The Sun updates their Twitter feed with the YouGov polls they commission every night at around 10:30pm. If it's a Tory lead, slightly earlier, if a Labour lead, often not until the next morning. YouGov itself can't release until the morning papers so that the Sun has exclusivity. Similar for most other papers/polls.

 

[Nicktendo86]

Ahh, that's my problem - I'm not on the Tweeters.

Still, as long as you guys are I'll get the news anyway.

Twitter is great to keep up to date with things, I've basically used it as an RSS replacement since google gave up in theirs. Try to ignore the unusual amount if idiots it attracts though!

Edit: quite a good summary of Miliband's current situation:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...sounds-good-but-lacks-substance-and-show.html

 

[zomgbbqftw]

The Sun updates their Twitter feed with the YouGov polls they commission every night at around 10:30pm. If it's a Tory lead, slightly earlier, if a Labour lead, often not until the next morning. YouGov itself can't release until the morning papers so that the Sun has exclusivity. Similar for most other papers/polls.

Yet more bullshit.

Sun Politics
‏@Sun_Politics
"YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by three: CON 32%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%"
10:30PM


Sun Politics
‏@Sun_Politics
"YouGov/Sun poll tonight — Tories have one point lead: CON 33%, LAB 32%, LD 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%"
10:30PM

A Labour lead of 3 points released at exactly the same time as a Tory lead of 1 point. The only YouGov poll of the week that has an unpredictable release time is the Sunday Times one which the Sunday Times usually keeps embargoed unless there is a very explosive finding either in the headline scores or in the subsidiary questions.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

A Labour lead of 3 points released at exactly the same time as a Tory lead of 1 point. The only YouGov poll of the week that has an unpredictable release time is the Sunday Times one which the Sunday Times usually keeps embargoed unless there is a very explosive finding either in the headline scores or in the subsidiary questions.

This is my point though - "very explosive" in the context of the Sunday Times usually means Tory gains. Also, the Sun has done it on prior occasions.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

This is my point though - "very explosive" in the context of the Sunday Times usually means Tory gains. Also, the Sun has done it on prior occasions.

Because that's the fucking context of the election. Labour are supposed to be miles ahead of the Tories right now, the right wing is split by UKIP and the left is supposedly unified after the leftist Lib Dems all went home to Labour. The government are overseeing a massive austerity programme and are wildly unpopular. If you can't understand why a Tory lead at this point in the electoral cycle is explosive then I suggest you look into another hobby, clearly political analysis is not for you.

 

[CyclopsRock]

What would the UK equivalent of this picture be? A badger? Springer Spaniel?

 

[Salazar]

What would the UK equivalent of this picture be? A badger? Springer Spaniel?

Aye.

Should have slipped Putin a wombat instead. Would have slain the fucker.

 

[broadwayrock]

What would the UK equivalent of this picture be? A badger? Springer Spaniel?

Cameron holding a british bulldogs skidmark stained arse?

 

[WayneMorse]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukn...murdered-boy-at-orgy-abuse-victim-claims.html

A Conservative MP murdered a young boy during a depraved sex party in the 1980s, an alleged victim of the Westminster paedophile scandal has claimed.

The 12-year-old boy, who was being abused by a group of men, was strangled by the politician at a luxury townhouse in front of other victims, it has been alleged.

On another occasion, the victim claims a young boy, who was around ten-years-old, was deliberately run down and killed by a car being driven by one of his abusers.

The alleged murders are among three that are now being investigated by the Metropolitan Police as part of a major probe into claims that a powerful paedophile ring with links to Westminster was operating in Britain in the 1970s and 1980s.

Scotland Yard, which set up Operation Fairbank two years ago to look at the abuse claims, announced on Friday it had launched a fresh strand of the inquiry, entitled Operation Midland, to probe the alleged murders.

 

[cartesian]

As I said in the dedicated thread, the details of that case are really depressing; it's so absurdly depraved that you almost think nobody would try to make it up. I really hope it's not true - but I suppose I wouldn't be totally surprised if it was. :/

How is your prediction that the polls would return to their pre-conference levels going?

Bullshit. You fucked up your prediction and now you are trying to force the data to fit.

Cherry picking data. How desperate.

Yet more bullshit.

...clearly political analysis is not for you.

I might be missing some backstory here, but you really don't like Crab very much, do you?

 

[Nicktendo86]

This is... Well... Its bloody mental!

http://order-order.com/2014/11/17/w...stabilising-force-with-progressive-potential/

 

[jimbor]

This is... Well... Its bloody mental!

http://order-order.com/2014/11/17/w...stabilising-force-with-progressive-potential/

I wonder if they're fans of William Hague?

 

[Jezbollah]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...-floor-with-Ed-Miliband-over-mansion-tax.html

You know it's not a great time when Myleene Klass gives you grief about your policies..

 

[CyclopsRock]

Myleene has always been the thinking man's girl.

Edit: Not always - she took Carol's crown, natch.

 

[Yamauchi]

Support for the SNP is surging in Scotland after the Westminster parties reneged on their devo max proposals: http://www.heraldscotland.com/polit...minster-and-holyrood-voting-intent.1416307498 -- The latest poll would give them 70 seats in Holyrood and the majority of Scotland's seats in Westminster.

 

[f0rk]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...-floor-with-Ed-Miliband-over-mansion-tax.html

You know it's not a great time when Myleene Klass gives you grief about your policies..

Need to see some statistics on the kind of people just above the £2 million home bracket.

 

[CyclopsRock]

the Westminster parties reneged on their devo max proposals

eh?

 

[kmag]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...-floor-with-Ed-Miliband-over-mansion-tax.html

You know it's not a great time when Myleene Klass gives you grief about your policies..

Yes, rich celebrities mumphing about tax is a sure vote loser. Won't someone think of Griff. I especially liked the part where she screeched about not taxing the glass of water in front of her...er bottled water is taxed at 20% so unless ITV are serving up tap water it will have been taxed... I'm not sure we should be taking tax advice from ex-members of Hearsay especially in the face of her naked self interest.

 

[Uzzy]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...-floor-with-Ed-Miliband-over-mansion-tax.html

You know it's not a great time when Myleene Klass gives you grief about your policies..

Given that you can net some swanky places like this one for less than £2m, I'm a little unsure as to what Klass' point was here. Unless it's a case of using dear old grannies as a shield to prevent her paying more tax.

 

[JonathanEx]

Basically she was speaking out of her Myleene Klass

 

[CyclopsRock]

I think her point is that the problems facing the NHS can't be solved by putting a tax on this and that, because the problems are completely endemic - an aging population that keeps people alive but not productive in an economic sense, the increasing cost of medicine, huge demands on care homes due to the massive increase in dementia etc. Not to mention the impact that all of these things have on the pension provisions being required for longer. Healthcare and the NHS have changed to such a large degree since 1948, I think it's a bit mad to think that we can constant sate its need for more and more public finances when the required funding is, on anything but a very short term outlook, basically infinite.

Edit: But perhaps I'm being generous to ol' Myleene. I always preferred Suzanne Shaw anyway. Tits of a goddess, that one.

 

[kmag]

I think her point is that the problems facing the NHS can't be solved by putting a tax on this and that, because the problems are completely endemic - an aging population that keeps people alive but not productive in an economic sense, the increasing cost of medicine, huge demands on care homes due to the massive increase in dementia etc. Not to mention the impact that all of these things have on the pension provisions being required for longer. Healthcare and the NHS have changed to such a large degree since 1948, I think it's a bit mad to think that we can constant sate its need for more and more public finances when the required funding is, on anything but a very short term outlook, basically infinite.

Edit: But perhaps I'm being generous to ol' Myleene. I always preferred Suzanne Shaw anyway. Tits of a goddess, that one.

A bit generous? She's bleating about having to pay more but hiding behind the mythical millionaire Granny who doesn't happen to have any money.

I personally think a "mansion tax" is nonsense, just introduce an additional band of council tax at the very top end and recalculate the current bands (which doesn't necessarily mean that people need to pay more as long as the rebanding is sensible) beneath it. I suppose even mentioning council tax without using the words "cutting" or "gutting" is not a vote winner.

 

[jimbor]

Myleene had contributed fuck all of worth to this world. She should stick to banging on about being a mother, add if she's the only person that has ever done it.

 

[CyclopsRock]

A bit generous? She's bleating about having to pay more but hiding behind the mythical millionaire Granny who doesn't happen to have any money.

I personally think a "mansion tax" is nonsense, just introduce an additional band of council tax at the very top end and recalculate the current bands (which doesn't necessarily mean that people need to pay more as long as the rebanding is sensible) beneath it. I suppose even mentioning council tax without using the words "cutting" or "gutting" is not a vote winner.

Eh? She said her granny lived in a council flat didn't she? I don't think she was saying she had accidentally ended up with a £2m apartment.

 

[kmag]

Eh? She said her granny lived in a council flat didn't she? I don't think she was saying she had accidentally ended up with a £2m apartment.

Not her own Granny, THE mythical poor penniless pensioner sitting on millions of pounds worth of real estate.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

If only we could find a nurse that lives in a >£2mil property. Then we could say Ed hates nurses, as well as grannies.

 

[Jezbollah]

Perhaps I'm seeing it differently.. Its not so much Klass' point that I thought was funny, it's that he was talking tough about terrorists a few minutes before being seen to having a few stripes torn off by a D list celebrity.

 

[f0rk]

Perhaps I'm seeing it differently.. Its not so much Klass' point that I thought was funny, it's that he was talking tough about terrorists a few minutes before being seen to having a few stripes torn off by a D list celebrity.

Yeah I guess the policy and Milliband are kind of separate points, you might agree with him but it reflects poorly to see him losing an argument like that.

 

[Jezbollah]

Yeah I guess the policy and Milliband are kind of separate points, you might agree with him but it reflects poorly to see him losing an argument like that.

Indeed. It's bad enough that his leadership credentials are being battered right now, then this happens. This may have already undone any good the "relaunch" brought with it a few days ago..

 

[Nicktendo86]

Tories with a one point yougov lead again today. As I thought, polls bouncing around.

So it has been less than a week since Ed's latest relaunch promising to confront UKIP and their vile beliefs and Labour have today announced tough plans on immigration and boarder control. They have officially gone into Tory level panic mode. Pathetic.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Tories with a one point yougov lead again today. As I thought, polls bouncing around.

So it has been less than a week since Ed's latest relaunch promising to confront UKIP and their vile beliefs and Labour have today announced tough plans on immigration and boarder control. They have officially gone into Tory level panic mode. Pathetic.

Yeah, I read about that. They're going to get tough on immigration, but only in line with "Labour values". I don't really know what that means. Or even if it matters if the end result is the same as right wing party policies.