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UK PoliGAF thread of tell me about the rabbits again, Dave.

C

CyclopsRock

Member
I know it's Dan Hodges and that, but his latest piece is about how whilst Ed is out there saying that Labour won't out-Ukip UKIP, Yvette Cooper is basically reiterating everything Farage is saying about immigration and pledging more border guards. I appreciate there's a different between immigration policy and stopping illegal immigration, but who are these speeches and quotes meant to be appealing to?
 
B

BKK

Member
Nicktendo86 said:
So it has been less than a week since Ed's latest relaunch promising to confront UKIP and their vile beliefs and Labour have today announced tough plans on immigration and boarder control. They have officially gone into Tory level panic mode. Pathetic.
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Did he actually say that? You'd have thought he'd have learnt from Cameron's infamous "swivel-eyed loons" comment that insulting potential voters is probably not the best way to get them to vote for you.
 
Nicktendo86

Nicktendo86

Member
BKK said:
Did he actually say that? You'd have thought he'd have learned from Cameron's infamous "swivel-eyed loons" comment that insulting potential voters is probably not the best way to get them to vote for you.
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His exact words, vile was my contribution:

Telegraph said:
"I think it is time we levelled with people about Ukip”, he said. “They’ve got away with it for too long. It is time we had a debate about where they really stand. They do have a vision of the past. But I say to working people in this country, let’s really examine their vision. Because when you stop and look at it, it is not really very attractive. And it is rooted in the same failed ideas that have let our country down”. He gave an example of one of those failed ideas. It was the idea that: “You feel safer when you don’t have someone who is foreign living next door”. And he gave the following pledge, “What we will never do is try to out-Ukip Ukip”.
Click to expand...
 
B

BKK

Member
CyclopsRock said:
I know it's Dan Hodges and that, but his latest piece is about how whilst Ed is out there saying that Labour won't out-Ukip UKIP, Yvette Cooper is basically reiterating everything Farage is saying about immigration and pledging more border guards. I appreciate there's a different between immigration policy and stopping illegal immigration, but who are these speeches and quotes meant to be appealing to?
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Allowing unlimited numbers of unskilled workers from predominantly white European countries to immigrate whilst clamping down on predominantly non-white immigrants from Africa and Asia. It all seems rather like the White Australia policy of times past. Out Ukipping Ukip indeed.
 
B

BKK

Member
Nicktendo86 said:
His exact words, vile was my contribution:
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Ok, that seems more reasonable, I thought that was a rather extreme choice of word to describe supporters of a party which just came first in a national election earlier this year.

Still, we can debate politics without insulting those with differing opinions with slurs generally reserved for acts deemed so universally despised as to have long been deemed illegal. With over 27% of the vote at the European Elections there's a reasonable chance that most people have a relative or friend that supported UKIP at the last European Election. Personally I'd rather have an intelligent argument with them than simply insulting them.
 
C

CyclopsRock

Member
BKK said:
Allowing unlimited numbers of unskilled workers from predominantly white European countries to immigrate whilst clamping down on predominantly non-white immigrants from Africa and Asia. It all seems rather like the White Australia policy of times past. Out Ukipping Ukip indeed.
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Well, there's literally nothing that can be done about EU migration so that only leaves the non-EU migration, though it's worth noting that there's actually very little African migration into the UK. Whilst there is a lot of Asian immigration, it's approximately the same volume as from the Anglosphere countries - predominantly Australia and the US.
 
Q

QuicheFontaine

Member
From UK Polling Report:

Survation had a new Scottish poll out for the Daily Record this morning. It showed the same sort of surge in SNP support that we’ve seen in other recent Scottish polls from Ipsos MORI, YouGov and Panelbase – in this case Westminster voting intentions are CON 17%, LAB 24%, LDEM 6%, SNP 46%, UKIP 5% (tabs are here.) I don’t imagine uniform swing calculators are really any sort of guide to how things would work out in a re-alignment of this sort of huge scale, but on paper these figures would give the SNP 52 seats in Scotland and Labour just five, and in practice it would surely produce a huge number of SNP gains. The question remains whether Labour can mount a recovery in Scotland prior to the election once they have elected a new leader, or whether this SNP surge will be maintained.
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Had to read that last sentence a few times! Where's my coffee...
 
M

Maledict

Member
I really hope that we see some actual movement on devolution before the next election so that we can actually understand what we might be voting for. in particular if Labour want to have a hope of recovering some of those seats they need to come up with a decent set of proposals now to go into the election.

They also need to not fall into the stupid 'English votes for english matters' trap that keeps getting pushed. It's a non-issue and only confuses things. Push for more devolution and powers to the northern cities and regions instead.
 
M

Maledict

Member
The stupid thing is it wouldn't be that hard for labour to jump back in the polls and provide a proper alternative.

They just need to let go of the control from central office, admit Gordon Brown is a good politician and give him a bigger role in Scottish politics, and start to actually develop scottish political talent that stays in Scotland. But labour have such a centralised control system it draws everything to Westminster and leaves labour in a poor position in the Scottish parliament.

Labour took the biggest hit supporting unionism - it was their traditional supporters shifting to independence that pushed the vote as close as it was. They need to respond to that but instead, like everything under Ed Miliband, seem to be flailing around and utterly failing. It's depressing because ultimately, unless they get their act in order, it will lead to Scottish independance within the next 20 years.
 
M

Masquerader

Member
QuicheFontaine said:
Yeah, I agree with that. And next year's GE is going to be a bloodbath for Labour in Scotland by the looks of it.
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Maledict said:
The stupid thing is it wouldn't be that hard for labour to jump back in the polls and provide a proper alternative.

They just need to let go of the control from central office, admit Gordon Brown is a good politician and give him a bigger role in Scottish politics, and start to actually develop scottish political talent that stays in Scotland. But labour have such a centralised control system it draws everything to Westminster and leaves labour in a poor position in the Scottish parliament.

Labour took the biggest hit supporting unionism - it was their traditional supporters shifting to independence that pushed the vote as close as it was. They need to respond to that but instead, like everything under Ed Miliband, seem to be flailing around and utterly failing. It's depressing because ultimately, unless they get their act in order, it will lead to Scottish independance within the next 20 years.
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Not to downplay the fact that the SNP is a very capable party, but the main problem is that Labour isn't. At all. It's a particularly lowly time for us left-wingists. A pity, really, seeing as only one policy by the Conservatives so far has even come close to benefiting me personally. Ah, well. With respect... Maybe Scotland should become independent. Very few English politicians genuinely consider it as a place worth caring about, including ones from Labour. Don't get me wrong, I'd miss Scotland, but if the Devolution plans are reneged on any further, I wouldn't blame them for leaving.
 
C

CyclopsRock

Member
Maledict said:
The stupid thing is it wouldn't be that hard for labour to jump back in the polls and provide a proper alternative.

They just need to let go of the control from central office, admit Gordon Brown is a good politician and give him a bigger role in Scottish politics, and start to actually develop scottish political talent that stays in Scotland. But labour have such a centralised control system it draws everything to Westminster and leaves labour in a poor position in the Scottish parliament.

Labour took the biggest hit supporting unionism - it was their traditional supporters shifting to independence that pushed the vote as close as it was. They need to respond to that but instead, like everything under Ed Miliband, seem to be flailing around and utterly failing. It's depressing because ultimately, unless they get their act in order, it will lead to Scottish independance within the next 20 years.
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I'm not sure that's really a "Labour control" problem so much as it is a constitutional one. So long as the most important decisions are made in Westminster, it's always going to be the Premier League to the devolved region's Highland's Amateur C league. If you're a talented and ambitious young Scottish politician, would you rather be vying for a seat in Holyrood or Westminster? This might - might - change if things like tax raising powers and the like were devolved, but even then it's questionable unless your interests are purely domestic. This is a problem that the SNP typically don't have because of their particular interest in Scottish devolution (and Plaid in Wales etc), but for any national party, they're always going to struggle to keep talent locally.

Edit: To reiterate, this isn't a "Scottish issue" - it's the same with every elected position which isn't an MP, with the possible exception of Mayors. A lot of MPs start life as councillors for their party and then stop being councillors as soon as it's politically viable to do so, which leaves you with the various ailing buffoons, retirees and wet-behind-the-ears cabinet ministers of tomorrow. I think the only solution to these problems is to give local areas greater control over the things people care about, but that's localism in a nutshell I guess.
 
M

Maledict

Member
Welol that's part of my first point- Labour out of all the parties should be the ones with the strongest and most thought out devolution package to go into the next election, and so far we've heard basically nothing of it. This isn't something you can whip up in a couple of weeks, they should be actively engaged with Scottish residents and Labour Party members (and ex members) and having that dialogue that was talked about beforehand. Develop a solid policy and set of proposals to take into the next election that they can show is what Scottish Labour is about.

I don't think the UK national parties are deliberately trying to kill devolution of powers. I just think they are staggeringly incompetent and slow, and are failing to learn the lessons from the independance vote. Cameron has tried to twist it into an English votes issues to hurt labour, and labour don't seem to have the ability to do *anything* well anymore.
 
M

Maledict

Member
CyclopsRock said:
I'm not sure that's really a "Labour control" problem so much as it is a constitutional one. So long as the most important decisions are made in Westminster, it's always going to be the Premier League to the devolved region's Highland's Amateur C league. If you're a talented and ambitious young Scottish politician, would you rather be vying for a seat in Holyrood or Westminster? This might - might - change if things like tax raising powers and the like were devolved, but even then it's questionable unless your interests are purely domestic. This is a problem that the SNP typically don't have because of their particular interest in Scottish devolution (and Plaid in Wales etc), but for any national party, they're always going to struggle to keep talent locally.

Edit: To reiterate, this isn't a "Scottish issue" - it's the same with every elected position which isn't an MP, with the possible exception of Mayors. A lot of MPs start life as councillors for their party and then stop being councillors as soon as it's politically viable to do so, which leaves you with the various ailing buffoons, retirees and wet-behind-the-ears cabinet ministers of tomorrow. I think the only solution to these problems is to give local areas greater control over the things people care about, but that's localism in a nutshell I guess.
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I think we're both in agreement here - localisation, and greater powers to local areas, will hopefully push decent political talent to stay local rather than constantly aim for Westminster.

Of course, as a couple MPs who come from a local government background I know have said, the thing they never realised before realising their ambition and getting to Westminster was how utterly powerless MPs are. Unless you get into cabinet. You have far greater control and ability to change things as a local councillor than as an MP.
 
Nicktendo86

Nicktendo86

Member
Some pretty good ONS stats today, gender inequality (in terms of pay anyway!) At lowest levels since records began and pay rises for those in work for a year or more are at 4.1%, well above inflation.

Edit: Tory you give lead of 1 again today after labour lead of 2 yesterday. If that's not bouncing around I don't know what is.
 
C

CyclopsRock

Member
A few days ago I heard that UKIP were expected to win by 20-22% and on the Betfair exchange you'll get 1.01 odds for UKIP winning. So, bet £100, win £1.
 
Z

Zaph

Member
Slightly tangential, but I just saw a pretty lengthy ad on Youtube bashing Ed Miliband (it went through 5 'principles' he had broken, and included that Myleene Klass clip so it was very recently produced).

Anyway, I only bring it up because I found it odd there was no ownership credit on it or information about who paid for the ad. Just the 5 points and it was over. Is that even legal under UK political ad laws?
 
M

Maledict

Member
My understanding of the polls was that UKIP will win today - and then promptly lose it in the next general.

People voted differently in byelections, and this is being seen as an opportunity to kick the government and send a message. When it comes to a general, people vote on different criteria.
 
C

CyclopsRock

Member
Maledict said:
My understanding of the polls was that UKIP will win today - and then promptly lose it in the next general.

People voted differently in byelections, and this is being seen as an opportunity to kick the government and send a message. When it comes to a general, people vote on different criteria.
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I agree. I think Carswell's the only one who could keep his seat. I know that even tomorrow they'll only have two, but I can't think of many people who a) are likely to defect who would also b) hold their seat at the GE. Carswell's a bit of a freak in that sense.
 
Nicktendo86

Nicktendo86

Member
Maledict said:
My understanding of the polls was that UKIP will win today - and then promptly lose it in the next general.

People voted differently in byelections, and this is being seen as an opportunity to kick the government and send a message. When it comes to a general, people vote on different criteria.
Click to expand...

Yeah I read that as well, as things stood (I think this poll was a week ago or so) the Tories stood to lose the by election by 20% but win it again by just 1%.

Kinda glad UKIP are getting more MPs actually. Means more spotlight it on them and they get shown for what they really are, such as the Reckless slip the other day where he alluded that immigrants should be deported.
 
C

CyclopsRock

Member
Ukip 48% (+48), Con 33% (-16), Lab 16% (-13), Lib Dems 1% (-16).

Fuck, look at those bloody numbers. Lib dems, lol, UKIP wow. Labour can't be happy with losing 13% - only slightly less than the Tories despite a) the left wing alternative losing 16% (Greens aren't on here but all those numbers add up to 98% so the most they could be on is 2%) and b) the fact that UKIP have traditionally drawn far more support from the Tories. Oh, and obviously the fact that Labour want to be getting more, not less votes, since they lost the last election.

Mad stuff all around, really. Now we've had Labour MP Emily Thornberry post a photo of a white van outside a house with a load of England flags in the window with the term "Image from #Rochester". Which the Labour press bandits have just said that "we don't see a problem with it."

Fucking hell.
 
Nicktendo86

Nicktendo86

Member
As much shit the Tories are in labour are in trouble too. Ukip are mopping up the white working class vote they have taken for granted for years and that tweet you mentioned Cyclops sums up in one wonderful moment how they just don't get it.
 
CharmingCharlie

CharmingCharlie

Member
When is this by election supposed to happen ? It isn't being covered on the news, they are far too busy with all the "BE SCARED, BE TERRIFIED, BE AFRAID" stories.
 
Jezbollah

Jezbollah

Member
CharmingCharlie said:
When is this by election supposed to happen ? It isn't being covered on the news, they are far too busy with all the "BE SCARED, BE TERRIFIED, BE AFRAID" stories.
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If you mean the Rochester and Strood by-election, it happened today.

And the reason its not being covered on the news is that the broadcast media cannot report on any by-election or elections when the polls are open.
 
CharmingCharlie

CharmingCharlie

Member
Dan27 said:
If you mean the Rochester and Strood by-election, it happened today.

And the reason its not being covered on the news is that the broadcast media cannot report on any by-election or elections when the polls are open.
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This is a new on me whenever there is a by election or anything the news does tend to tell you THERE is one. I am watching news at 10 and all they are whittling on about is some guy with George flags hanging outside his house (can't even my head around that bullshit story). Seriously if you watch the news you wouldn't even know they just had a by election and voting just closed.
 
CharmingCharlie

CharmingCharlie

Member
Nicktendo86 said:
That's for a reason, its in the rules they can't report anything to do with it on the day in case they sway anything.
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OK maybe my memory is playing tricks on me but is this a new thing ? I clearly remember from past elections and by elections the Media never shut the fuck up about it on voting day with news reports of people going to the polls, who is standing for what, how Evil UKip is, what Milliband had for breakfast and what a moronic way he ate it and how many unemployed people David Cameron shot today.

Just seems as if this by election has happened without much in the way of news coverage all week. Seriously I didn't even know there was one till I popped in here and I watch the news every single night.
 
P

pulsemyne

Member
Dan27 said:
Given how many votes Labour are losing to UKIP, I'd say yes.
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In some ways it's a good thing because at least Ed gets rid of people posting moronic shite on twitter (apparently he was furious as where the local people managing the campaign) or when one of his cabinet fucks up. Dave however...
 
D

dapperbandit

Banned
Reckless wins in Rochester.

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M

Maledict

Member
That's not as bad as was feared for the Tories - they will probably be quietly happy with that result. Reckless is toast at the general.
 
Q

QuicheFontaine

Member
It's really going to test the graphics department of the BBC newsroom if the swingometer has to go up to 28% at next years GE.

Edit:

Is my monitor broken, or is Labour shown in some weird orange colour rather than their usual red in that BBC graphic??
 
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