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[Loudninja]

Oh god oh man oh god oh man oh god oh man

 

[Slayven]

Was this on TV? I can't find a print source.

yes

 

[Garlador]

Cruz realizing he was a mere two weeks away from being able to take the moral high ground by not endorsing Drumpf at the RNC:

Really, this is THE sweetest karma.

He was THIS CLOSE to coming out of this as the GOP hero who called it from the beginning and who stood his ground. All he had to do was stick with it for two more weeks...

... And he caved at the absolute worst possible time, endorsing a man who denigrated his wife, slandered his father, insulted him to his very face, and he gave him his endorsement.

... And now he's in this private hell of having publicly endorsed a guy who brags about sexual assault.

It's such sweet, poetic justice, it almost feels miraculous.

 

[Nocebo]

oday’s estimated Clinton win probability is 93%. The Meta-Margin is Clinton +3.3% and the red one-sigma band, indicating the likely range of electoral outcomes, is 290-348 EV. Betting markets are catching up, especially after yesterday’s newest wave of Trump stories, especially the groping story.

The insta-consensus among commentators is that somehow this event is a cause of Trump’s electoral doom. I think the logic is backwards – to me, the growing obviousness of his doom created an environment for this story to blow up. The genuinely new development is the impact for downticket – in both the Senate and the House.

In one common sentiment, catching Trump on tape bragging about groping women without consent is somehow a last straw that has caused supporters to desert him, starting off with GOP Reps. Jason Chaffetz (district Partisan Voting Index R+25%) and Martha Roby (R+17%), and Utah governors Gary Herbert (current) and Jon Huntsman (former). Taniel’s running tally of GOP reactions is here. Some PEC readers think this is a black swan – an unexpected anomaly that moves everything.

However, the idea that the recording comes as a surprise does not make sense. Trump’s record of misogynistic comments is abundant, and his unfiltered comments are part of his core appeal. As a reality television star with thousands of hours of candid footage, it was inevitable that such comments would come to light…though it’s taken a while.

I would argue that this weekend’s public blowback is triggered by a growing realization of what will happen on November 8th. After the first debate, it became obvious that Trump was going to lose the general election. Clinton’s bounceback is small, but by modern (i.e. post-1996) standards it looks large. There isn’t enough time for opinion to shift back (for instance, within my random diffusion assumption), especially given the natural setpoint of the race (my Bayesian prior that assumes regression to the mean). In other words, people’s intuitions started telling them that time had run out for Trump.

Based on past elections, I estimate that people’s “animal spirits” about a campaign start to shift when the front-runner’s win probability gets close to 95% as defined using PEC’s methods. At that point, the marketplace of ideas starts looking for a reason to pile on to the loser. Enter the video/audio recording.

Elected officials have a nose for the stench of a candidate who is on the cusp of becoming a loser. All along, Republican officials have been skittish about Trump, who executed a hostile takeover of their party. Now they have an excuse to jump ship.

Excellent analysis. I was wondering for a while now when Republicans would finally start washing their hands of Donald. Because, is there really any merit to go down with Donald? He's not a political figure, right? I was thinking people would start dropping him much sooner than they would a legitimate political figure, though. Some already did of course, but not that many I think? Maybe many of them had wanted to wait till the first debates and have been looking for a way out ever since...

At any rate, let's hope the trend continues. I can almost imagine Donald having an actual meltdown on stage on Sunday. He has got to be seething, right? How is someone with his temperament going to control himself?

 

[teruterubozu]

Unlike McCain and Romney, Trump hijacked the Republican Party. The Republican Party didn't want him as candidate, but had to accept it because that was what the base had voted for. This scandal gives the Republican Party the excuse needed to do a scorched earth policy on Donald Trump and basically make sure he or someone like him never, ever, ever wins the Republican Party nomination again.

Basically, when Donald Trump loses, he will never work in the United States ever, ever again, because he will be blackballed completely from both sides of the fence. Maybe he can get a job in Russia though!

Seriously? Trump is set after he loses. Even Mark Cuban said Trump's worth can grow tenfold after the elections just from the pure notoriety. He has a base he can tap into now.

 

[BigDug13]

All that any Trump supporter can say in response to a question about this is to bring up Bill Clinton.

It's such a stupid argument though. If the Lewinsky thing had happened prior to his reelection campaign, his candidacy would have been over. Something happening when you're president in your last term is easier to overcome than something happening during your candidacy in a close race.

 

[GoldenEye 007]

Right, but he soars to the great heights of coming across as a somewhat serious human being and not just a clown or a cartoon character like the rest of the stage

True, I just think that makes him more dangerous. With Trump, he doesn't know when or how to shut up and eventually he was able to hang himself over it. Always felt that the perfect storm let him win the GOP nomination.

But that he had no shot at surviving a general election race. That so far has come true.

 

[Enter the Dragon Punch]

All that any Trump supporter can say in response to a question about this is to bring up Bill Clinton.

What? This is blatantly false. Please stop lying.

They also bring up Monika Lewinsky.

 

[benjipwns]

Right, but he soars to the great heights of coming across as a somewhat serious human being and not just a clown or a cartoon character like the rest of the stage

Until you get him angry.

 

[RomanticHeroX]

Unlike McCain and Romney, Trump hijacked the Republican Party. The Republican Party didn't want him as candidate, but had to accept it because that was what the base had voted for. This scandal gives the Republican Party the excuse needed to do a scorched earth policy on Donald Trump and basically make sure he or someone like him never, ever, ever wins the Republican Party nomination again.

Basically, when Donald Trump loses, he will never work in the United States ever, ever again, because he will be blackballed completely from both sides of the fence. Maybe he can get a job in Russia though!

I wouldn't be surprised if NBC had a new show for him within a week.

 

[Rubenov]

Cruz realizing he was a mere two weeks away from being able to take the moral high ground by not endorsing Drumpf at the RNC:

Cruz never really had a moral high ground. Cruz just does things that he believes will benefit him in the end. No true moral compass.

 

[BigDug13]

What? This is blatantly false. Please stop lying.

They also bring up Monika Lewinsky.

That fat chick?




(reference to early post containing Trump supporter spin)

 

[Baron von Loathsome]

I swear, that picture of Cruz on the phone feels like one of those movies where the villain ends up shoveling horse poop or something.

 

[IJoel]

The past 24 hours have been such a massive train wreck for the Republican Party and Trump, I'm honestly a bit concerned about the next debate. It'll be hugely important, and Trump will have nothing to lose, so I expect him to throw the kitchen sink at Clinton.

 

[jelly]

I can't help hearing Trump's line with the voice of Hawkins in Predator when he is telling Billy a joke about the pussy echo.

 

[Saganator]

All that any Trump supporter can say in response to a question about this is to bring up Bill Clinton.

Which is funny because it essentially discredits them saying "it was over a decade ago" because Bill's stuff was two decades ago.

 

[FrenchMovieTheme]

What are the chances a Donald Trump sex tape exists?

Because, that's all were missing right now.

Pls no.

 

[Lumination]

Why is there such backlash from both voters and politicians here?

When I first heard about the recordings, I just waved it off as just another dumb as shit thing Trump has decided to say that the general public will wave off and forget. What about this incident specifically that's resonated with so many people?

 

[.JayZii]

The past 24 hours have been such a massive train wreck for the Republican Party and Trump, I'm honestly a bit concerned about the next debate. It'll be hugely important, and Trump will have nothing to lose, so I expect him to throw the kitchen sink at Clinton.

Which will have the added flavor of a, now indisputably, misogynist asshole attacking a woman, for a lot of people.

 

[Netherscourge]

All that any Trump supporter can say in response to a question about this is to bring up Bill Clinton.

Too bad for Trump that Bill Clinton isn't the one running for president.

 

[jelly]

Why is there such backlash from both voters and politicians here?

When I first heard about the recordings, I just waved it off as just another dumb as shit thing Trump has decided to say that the general public will wave off and forget. What about this incident specifically that's resonated with so many people?

Just a bit rapey.

I do get what you mean though, why this to push people over edge and not the rest over the months, years.

 

[teruterubozu]

Which will have the added flavor of a, now indisputably, misogynist asshole attacking a woman, for a lot of people.

Yeah but do we really have to go through with it? It's gonna be the shitshow of all shitshows.

 

[Mr. Giggles]

The past 24 hours have been such a massive train wreck for the Republican Party and Trump, I'm honestly a bit concerned about the next debate. It'll be hugely important, and Trump will have nothing to lose, so I expect him to throw the kitchen sink at Clinton.

Absolutely, in his apology he even says he will talk about Bill clintons infidelities and to look forward to the debates.

For someone who was giving Hillary shit for "exposing" plans to get rid of the enemy here his blatantly talking about his.

If Hillary even had a shred of common sense defending against this was set up day one, trump isn't catching her off guard with anything

 

[IJoel]

Which will have the added flavor of a, now indisputably, misogynist asshole attacking a woman, for a lot of people.

Oh, I certainly hope it backfires badly, and he sinks the RNC with him.

 

[Walter White Walker]

Really, this is THE sweetest karma.

He was THIS CLOSE to coming out of this as the GOP hero who called it from the beginning and who stood his ground. All he had to do was stick with it for two more weeks...

... And he caved at the absolute worst possible time, endorsing a man who denigrated his wife, slandered his father, insulted him to his very face, and he gave him his endorsement.

... And now he's in this private hell of having publicly endorsed a guy who brags about sexual assault.

It's such sweet, poetic justice, it almost feels miraculous.

The Lord works in mysterious ways.

 

[Pamplemousse]

CNN said there's a chance Pence may leave. Crazy!

 

[Exile20]

John Kasich:

Ted Cruz:

That could have been me that said that

 

[BigDug13]

Why is there such backlash from both voters and politicians here?

When I first heard about the recordings, I just waved it off as just another dumb as shit thing Trump has decided to say that the general public will wave off and forget. What about this incident specifically that's resonated with so many people?

Find a source and listen to the recordings. Transcripts and hearing about them from other people doesn't do it justice.

This is Ray Rice punching his wife in an elevator levels of "the tape is damning."

 

[E-Cat]

Cruz never really had a moral high ground. Cruz just does things that he believes will benefit him in the end. No true moral compass.

Yeah, totally. But now he can't even claim the appearance of having chosen the high ground.

 

[nicanica]

Why is there such backlash from both voters and politicians here?

When I first heard about the recordings, I just waved it off as just another dumb as shit thing Trump has decided to say that the general public will wave off and forget. What about this incident specifically that's resonated with so many people?

1) He used a no no word
2) "When you're rich, you can:
a) treat women as objects
b) confirm being a piece of shit 10 years later from B-roll Access Hollywood footage."

 

[chadskin]

Why is there such backlash from both voters and politicians here?

When I first heard about the recordings, I just waved it off as just another dumb as shit thing Trump has decided to say that the general public will wave off and forget. What about this incident specifically that's resonated with so many people?

Mexicans, muslims and blacks aren't the GOP voter base. (Religious) (white) women are.

But I also think the establishment sees this as an opportunity to dump Trump, now that they've lost hope he can beat Clinton following his debate performance.

 

[Crimson_Gold]

CNN said there's a chance Pence may leave. Crazy!

Christie will be the new VP. The toll bridge troll

 

[Wallach]

CNN said there's a chance Pence may leave. Crazy!

Said this last night man. He's the one who is going to get out, not Trump. I'm telling you the GOP is going to plan to rally around their establishment hard with a combination of Ryan pulling his endorsement and Pence bailing on the ticket to start the exodus.

 

[Captin Quacker]

The past 24 hours have been such a massive train wreck for the Republican Party and Trump, I'm honestly a bit concerned about the next debate. It'll be hugely important, and Trump will have nothing to lose, so I expect him to throw the kitchen sink at Clinton.

The best temperament

 

[.JayZii]

Yeah but do we really have to go through with it? It's gonna be the shitshow of all shitshows.

Yes. After the past year or so, the country needs catharsis. One way or another.

 

[JHoNNy1OoO]

Why is there such backlash from both voters and politicians here?

When I first heard about the recordings, I just waved it off as just another dumb as shit thing Trump has decided to say that the general public will wave off and forget. What about this incident specifically that's resonated with so many people?

My man, he's BRAGGING about sexually assaulting women and that he gets away with it because of his celebrity. At that point rational human beings tell themselves that if he used his celebrity to get away with sexual assault, imagine what he would try to get away with as the MOST POWERFUL MAN IN THE WORLD. The fact that the audio is clear as ever and the video shows this two-faced pervert walk off the bus is just icing on the cake.

He's not a good person.

 

[Forearms]

1) He used a no no word
2) "When you're rich, you can:
a) treat women as objects
b) confirm being a piece of shit 10 years later from B-roll Access Hollywood footage."

It's not even the words fuck, bitch, pussy and tits... seriously! He said he can do whatever he wants to women because of his status... things like grabbing their genitals without consent. I don't understand why anyone thinks this is about the word pussy.

 

[shiba5]

Can someone please Photoshop the blob fish holding the phone in that Cruz phone bank picture?

 

[VaultBoy101]

The headline plus that face (twice!) are making me giggle uncontrollably.

Along with the implications, of course.

 

[Oersted]

The best temperament

Wrong!





Wait...

 

[Garlador]

Can someone please Photoshop the blob fish holding the phone in that Cruz phone bank picture?

You mean it hasn't been photoshopped already?

 

[Biske]

1) He used a no no word
2) "When you're rich, you can:
a) treat women as objects
b) confirm being a piece of shit 10 years later from B-roll Access Hollywood footage."

Honestly it may just boil down to him saying pussy on tape.

In telling my mother about this she was getting super mad that I kept saying pussy.

 

[SparkleMotion]

A female Trump supporter on CNN actually said that if Hillary is elected, Bill Clinton will be back in the white house with "a new batch of interns to prey on".

 

[LiveFromKyoto]

I wouldn't be surprised if NBC had a new show for him within a week.

No, he's utterly done in the eyes of the mainstream culture. Most self-identifying republicans will want to clorox him from public memory, and like the Iraq War they were so in love with, will spend the rest of their lives arguing they never really supported him. He's branded with an L on his forehead for life.

If he's got an audience, it's going to be in the Breitbart/Blaze weirdosphere intellectual ghetto of angry dumb people. You know even Fox can't wait to ditch him.

 

[Lumination]

Find a source and listen to the recordings. Transcripts and hearing about them from other people doesn't do it justice.

This is Ray Rice punching his wife in an elevator levels of "the tape is damning."

Yeah, I listened to the recording afterwards. Just seemed like typical Trump stuff. I suppose I didn't expect the people under the delusion that Trump WASN'T like this to be convinced.

Mexicans, muslims and blacks aren't the GOP voter base. (Religious) (white) women are.

But I also think the establishment sees this as an opportunity to dump Trump, now that they've lost hope he can beat Clinton following his debate performance.

That's a good point. I suppose conservative women don't actually want him to be pro-choice so they don't view that as anti-women, but rape is universally reviled.

 

[Crimson_Gold]

Said this last night man. He's the one who is going to get out, not Trump. I'm telling you the GOP is going to plan to rally around their establishment hard with a combination of Ryan pulling his endorsement and Pence bailing on the ticket to start the exodus.

I wonder if such a move will lead to the permanent splintering of the base that's been coming since the formation of the tea party

 

[jelly]

Why does this Ryan bloke never run for President if he is so powerful?

 

[BrutishMrFish]

Said this last night man. He's the one who is going to get out, not Trump. I'm telling you the GOP is going to plan to rally around their establishment hard with a combination of Ryan pulling his endorsement and Pence bailing on the ticket to start the exodus.

I really hope they're both held accountable for supporting Trump this close to the election. They knew exactly who they were dealing with.

If they leave and the Dems don't pounce, it's going to be the biggest political fuckup since nominating Trump.

 

[Waldo Lydecker]

Hehe, that generator has some legs.

https://m.photofunia.com/effects/retro-wave

Quick, someone use that Keep-calm-O-generator...

 

[Burt]

Honestly it may just boil down to him saying pussy on tape.

In telling my mother about this she was getting super mad that I kept saying pussy.

And to think, all Hillary had to do was spend some money on looping the Comedy Central Roast 24/7 without commercials for a day or two before the election.