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[Neoxon]

also this

I can see why Nintendo may want to consolidate all of their hardware under one platform (assuming that's the route they take, which we aren't 110% sure of right now).

 

[Peru]

What are those numbers? Haven't they sold 55 million 3ds units?

 

[Nightbird]

There seems to be a mistake. Shouldn't Hardware numbers for the 3DS rather be 52 than 22?

 

[TheJoRu]

What are those numbers? Haven't they sold 55 million 3ds units?

There seems to be a mistake. Shouldn't Hardware numbers for the 3DS rather be 52 than 22?

Indeed. 54.34 million to be exact, as of september 30 last year.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/sales/hard_soft/index.html

 

[Neoxon]

Indeed. 54.34 million to be exact, as of september 30 last year.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/sales/hard_soft/index.html

Wait, then how long ago were these numbers? I thought it was a bit off due to us hearing about more 3DS devices being sold, but I didn't think much of it thanks to the date attached.

 

[Bitch Pudding]

There seems to be a mistake. Shouldn't Hardware numbers for the 3DS rather be 52 than 22?

Yeah, it's actually 54. Next time I let one of our interns check those numbers first...

Wait, then how long ago were these numbers? I thought it was a bit off due to us hearing about more 3DS devices being sold, but I didn't think much of it thanks to the date attached.

Those are the last numbers, maybe we'll get new numbers in Nintendo's next annual report? Should be out somewhen in April, right?

EDIT

I just saw 3rd quarter earnings report will be released on February 2nd.

 

[Exterminieren]

Just curious, if Sony "f*cked up" with PS3 which sold ~85mn LTD, what does this mean for Nintendo consoles in general, with Wii being Nintendos best selling console ever (~100mn) and NES #2 with ~60mn LTD? Just sayin...

No matter what Nintendo does, NX home console derivate will struggle to get above 20mn LTD unless it really comes with a surprisingly good concept.

It's not just a numbers game. Sony's major fuck-up with the PS3 was the way they tossed billions down the drain with it, not pure lifetime sales. Sony lost far, far more on the PS3 than Nintendo EVER will on the Wii U.

 

[Neoxon]

Just curious, if Sony "f*cked up" with PS3 which sold ~85mn LTD, what does this mean for Nintendo consoles in general, with Wii being Nintendos best selling console ever (~100mn) and NES #2 with ~60mn LTD? Just sayin...

No matter what Nintendo does, NX home console derivate will struggle to get above 20mn LTD unless it really comes with a surprisingly good concept.

This is exactly why I'm starting to believe that the NX Handheld will be the flagship NX device. There's little Nintendo can do to make the NX Console a break-out hit this late in the generation. They can't go too far with the NX Console's power unless they either want to make said NX Console expensive as hell or sell the thing at a loss. And even then, most of the core gamers are comfy with their PS4s & Xbox Ones. Well, they could do a gimmick, but they'd also have to take the handheld into account when developing the gimmick. And if they go with, say, a free-form display & scrollable bumpers for the console's controller & the handheld, the former could potentially drive up costs. It's a really tricky situation. And that's not even mentioning Nintendo's situation with western third parties.

 

[Bots are better than you]

This is exactly why I'm starting to believe that the NX Handheld will be the flagship NX device. There's little Nintendo can do to make the NX Console a break-out hit this late in the generation. They can't go too far with the NX Console's power unless they either want to make said NX Console expensive as hell or sell the thing at a loss. And even then, most of the core gamers are comfy with their PS4s & Xbox Ones. Well, they could do a gimmick, but they'd also have to take the handheld into account when developing the gimmick. And if they go with, say, a free-form display & scrollable bumpers for the console's controller & the handheld, the former could potentially drive up costs. It's a really tricky situation. And that's not even mentioning Nintendo's situation with western third parties.

That's why i think that Nintendo is trying to achieve a more "gen-agnostic" approach with NX.

We all agree that Nintendo could have the best hardware, and the best development enviroment, putting anything Sony or MS have for PS4/XOne to shame ... they still wouldn't get much or even any content support.
While having good hardware and dev enviroment is important, really important, a sizeable userbase is imo more important. All those last-gen ports show one thing, 3rds are willing to support a platform, acceptable factors given.

A platform, that basically goes Apple, saying that most or even all games a consumer purchased are playable on future systems (at least to an extend, even on mobile there are limtis), can be attractive for consumers.
Add to that a potential hardware-agnostic OS/tools, it might allow cheaper hardware upgrades and thus more frequent.

They might even go with a console that's just at XOne-power levels that way.

 

[Bitch Pudding]

It's not just a numbers game. Sony's major fuck-up with the PS3 was the way they tossed billions down the drain with not, not pure lifetime sales. Sony lost far, far more on the PS3 than Nintendo EVER will on the Wii U.

They lossed a lot of money with PS3 indeed, but the licence fees Sony gets both for Blu-Ray disks and hardware should be taken into account as well, as PS3 played a decisive role in the good old Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD format war.

 

[foltzie1]

They lossed a lot of money with PS3 indeed, but the licence fees Sony gets both for Blu-Ray disks and hardware should be taken into account as well, as PS3 played a decisive role in the god old Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD format war.

Indeed, this makes figuring out if the PS3 was a net loss tricky, in some ways its till generating revenue for Sony via Blu-Ray licensing .

 

[Neoxon]

They lossed a lot of money with PS3 indeed, but the licence fees Sony gets both for Blu-Ray disks and hardware should be taken into account as well, as PS3 played a decisive role in the god old Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD format war.

But now we're moving more towards Netflix & 4K Blu-Ray (more so the former).

 

[Bitch Pudding]

But now we're moving more towards Netflix & 4K Blu-Ray (more so the former).

Rightly so, but because of that it's highly unlikely from my point of view that Toshiba or someone else will come up with a 4k Blu-Ray competitor in the future. Meaning Blu-Ray (4k) might become the very last disk-based storage device known to mankind. Making Sony's victory even more imporant. Digital distribution is the future, but there will still be a market for movies and games on disks for quite a long time.

Curious if NX home console will have a Blu-Ray drive (hope so!).

 

[Neoxon]

Rightly so, but because of that it's highly unlikely from my point of view that Toshiba or someone else will come up with a 4k Blu-Ray competitor in the future. Meaning Blu-Ray (4k) might become the very last disk-based storage device known to mankind. Making Sony's victory even more imporant. Digital distribution is the future, but there will still be a market for movies and games on disks for quite a long time.

Curious if NX home console will have a Blu-Ray drive (hope so!).

I honestly wouldn't get your hopes up. Nintendo usually avoids Blu-Ray or DVD drives on account of the licensing costs attached to such drives (Nintendo instead opts to make their own knock-off variant of Blu-Ray discs). And given how the general public is moving more towards streaming for their movies & shows, there's really no point in Nintendo adding unnecessary costs to the NX Console. Anyone who would want a Blu-Ray player already owns one. Plus if Nintendo's as serious about unifying their consoles & handhelds, they may opt to do away with discs entirely & go for cartridges.

 

[Hero of Legend]

Should Nintendo opt for an NX Optical Disc drive for the console? Obviously it seems like the cartridge idea of them being played on both the handheld and console makes sense, but it has always been tradition and I wonder how 3rd-parties would take using carts over discs.

Could Nintendo make carts of various sizes to suit the needs and costs of games? I mean if a game is only 512MB in size, you don't need a 64GB cart for it, just make a 512MB cart.

Something like:

512MB, 1GB, 2GB, 4GB, 8GB, 16GB, 32GB, 64GB max.

It'd be a whole lot cheaper for games that use smaller file sizes. I also wondered why Nintendo didn't just let Wii U devs use Wii discs for smaller games since all Wii U consoles read them, unless those can't handle HD imagery?

 

[Graphics Horse]

Should Nintendo opt for an NX Optical Disc drive for the console? Obviously it seems like the cartridge idea of them being played on both the handheld and console makes sense, but it has always been tradition and I wonder how 3rd-parties would take using carts over discs.

Could Nintendo make carts of various sizes to suit the needs and costs of games? I mean if a game is only 512MB in size, you don't need a 64GB cart for it, just make a 512MB cart.

Yes, they always have supplied various sizes.

 

[Hero of Legend]

Yes, they always have supplied various sizes.

That's what I thought. But what were the exact sizes? And how much does the cost differ?

 

[Fourth Storm]

Should Nintendo opt for an NX Optical Disc drive for the console? Obviously it seems like the cartridge idea of them being played on both the handheld and console makes sense, but it has always been tradition and I wonder how 3rd-parties would take using carts over discs.

Could Nintendo make carts of various sizes to suit the needs and costs of games? I mean if a game is only 512MB in size, you don't need a 64GB cart for it, just make a 512MB cart.

Something like:

512MB, 1GB, 2GB, 4GB, 8GB, 16GB, 32GB, 64GB max.

It'd be a whole lot cheaper for games that use smaller file sizes. I also wondered why Nintendo didn't just let Wii U devs use Wii discs for smaller games since all Wii U consoles read them, unless those can't handle HD imagery?

That's probably more of a supply chain issue. If you're contracting factories to pump out blu-rays by the million, you're getting a decent price per unit. Setting up a new supply chain for DVDs would end up more expensive most likely. For the same reason, I think 3DS cards are only in 2 GB and 4 GB capacity now, although there may be 1 GB cards as well. I need to fact check that. 4 GB games are rare, though. We're talking your Metal Gears, Smash Bros, Resident Evils, and not much else.

Edit: Looking back at this thread, there are smaller sizes available. http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=456554

Edit #2: Here's a link to some game file sizes. Add Bravely Default and Xenoblade to the 4 GB list. https://www.reddit.com/r/3DS/wiki/size_of_games

 

[MrBigBoy]

What if the cartridge only has a license to the game on it, but you still have to download the game? To play the game, you still need to insert the cartridge, but only as a check to see if you still have the game. I think they could do that to make collectors/people who like physical media happy, and the cartridge should not cost alot that way. Only downside would be if the consumer has a data-cap on their internet connection when downloading the game.

 

[Graphics Horse]

they could have whispernet authentication or something.

That's what I thought. But what were the exact sizes? And how much does the cost differ?

Idk about cost. 3DS games are from 128MB to 4GB apparently. Can expect next gen cards to cover bigger sizes from launch, but I'm not entirely sure they will use cards this time, could be alternatives.

 

[Fourth Storm]

What if the cartridge only has a license to the game on it, but you still have to download the game? To play the game, you still need to insert the cartridge, but only as a check to see if you still have the game. I think they could do that to make collectors/people who like physical media happy, and the cartridge should not cost alot that way. Only downside would be if the consumer has a data-cap on their internet connection when downloading the game.

In that case, they're better off using NFC to check the license.

 

[James Scott]

That game is the single exception. As far as I know, there are literally no other Wii U games with screen tearing.

Spiderman 2

 

[Neoxon]

What if the cartridge only has a license to the game on it, but you still have to download the game? To play the game, you still need to insert the cartridge, but only as a check to see if you still have the game. I think they could do that to make collectors/people who like physical media happy, and the cartridge should not cost alot that way. Only downside would be if the consumer has a data-cap on their internet connection when downloading the game.

Then Nintendo should brace themselves to suffer the same fate as Microsoft when they tried to pull a similar stunt.

 

[TheHolyTurnip]

What if the cartridge only has a license to the game on it, but you still have to download the game? To play the game, you still need to insert the cartridge, but only as a check to see if you still have the game. I think they could do that to make collectors/people who like physical media happy, and the cartridge should not cost alot that way. Only downside would be if the consumer has a data-cap on their internet connection when downloading the game.

Yea, no. One the driving factors of physical is the ability to have a local copy, something that isn't dependant on the internet and a connected service to play the game, outside of games that are reliant on those for multiplayer and such. I don't want to buy an unlock key, I want to buy the game. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people would be OK with that kind of system but I know I wouldn't be, and I'm far from the only one that feels like that. Dozensofus.gif and all that jazz.

 

[Fourth Storm]

Then Nintendo should brace themselves to suffer the same fate as Microsoft when they tried to pull a similar stunt.

I'm not sure about that. In this age of Netflix, it's hard to say how the general population will react. Nintendo's audience are a bit different. I don't know if they're the type that consume the latest AAA blockbusters month by month and then trade them back in to their local Gamestop. File sizes will also probably be much smaller for many of their games. They would also have a handheld capable of downloading games to an SD card in different locations.

They'll have some form of physical purchase option, but whether that physical object actually contains the game or the whole game...well, a good portion of current gen games don't ship "complete" these days anyway. Digital is inevitable -- the vocal hardcore can't push it off forever.

 

[Graphics Horse]

I still think they might have a little plastic amiibo-like thing for retail, just plug it into your system to install it, saves space otherwise required by a card system. I expect a big push towards digital though.

 

[Neoxon]

I'm not sure about that. In this age of Netflix, it's hard to say how the general population will react. Nintendo's audience are a bit different. I don't know if they're the type that consume the latest AAA blockbusters month by month and then trade them back in to their local Gamestop. File sizes will also probably be much smaller for many of their games. They would also have a handheld capable of downloading games to an SD card in different locations.

They'll have some form of physical purchase option, but whether that physical object actually contains the game or the whole game...well, a good portion of current gen games don't ship "complete" these days anyway. Digital is inevitable -- the vocal hardcore can't push it off forever.

The Xbox One also had some form of physical option, but it was basically a glorified download pass. That was one of the major reasons behind the backlash. Until data caps are done away with & internet improves throughout the world, digital-only consoles won't be accepted by the general public. The reactions towards the Xbox One's pre-launch policies are proof of this. The world just isn't ready for a console or handheld with no means of playing your games without an internet connection.

 

[10k]

Graphs in this thread? Time to close it down. We have no more new info until February 2nd or Rosti's little tidbit ends up sparking conversation

 

[Rösti]

Maybe, just maybe, we can get a little something from Electronic Arts' Q3 2016 Earnings Conference Call tomorrow, January 28, at 02:00 PM PT. They did last year in the Q2 2016 Earnings Conference Call respond to a question about NX:

Mike Hickey - The Benchmark Company - Analyst
Cool. Fair enough, thank you. And thinking about Nintendo's NX platform, the dev chips have apparently shipped. It looks like it's working towards
a calendar year 2016 launch. Just wondering how you plan to manage your resources to that emerging platform. Do you anticipate being more
aggressive on the front end? Or perhaps a little bit more cautious, given the Wii U underperformed expectations?

Andrew Wilson - Electronic Arts Inc. - CEO
I'm going to address that slightly differently. As we look to the future, we see a world where more people are playing on more platforms in more
geographies than ever before. We see the platform cycle now, not just as a traditional six-year console cycle, but as a six-month refresh rate on
mobile devices, smart TVs, Internet-enabled refrigerators, or whatever it might be.

And what we're doing, in terms of resource allocation, is really investing at a core digital platform level, at an engine level, and at a game architecture
level, to ensure that we are able to deliver amazing experiences; 6 inches to 60 inches, and beyond; two minutes to two hour session times, and
beyond; across any and all relevant devices where gamers are playing.
And as it relates to Nintendo, we've had a tremendous relationship with them over the years. And we will evaluate any and all opportunities with
them, in the same way we do all platform opportunities.

Source: http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ERTS/1414455235x0x857661/6430018A-2AEA-4081-87D3-69D737B9FF35/EA_Q2_FY16_Transcript.pdf

 

[Eradicate]

Maybe, just maybe, we can get a little something from Electronic Arts' Q3 2016 Earnings Conference Call tomorrow, January 28, at 02:00 PM PT. They did last year in the Q2 2016 Earnings Conference Call respond to a question about NX:


Source: http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ERTS/1414455235x0x857661/6430018A-2AEA-4081-87D3-69D737B9FF35/EA_Q2_FY16_Transcript.pdf

That would be great if any sort of tidbit got out.

Speaking of which, though Nintendo has a call out next Tuesday, DeNA also has one Friday I believe. Any chance for morsels there? I figure mobile-related things are most likely, but I'm curious if anything else may come about.

 

[Neoxon]

That would be great if any sort of tidbit got out.

Speaking of which, though Nintendo has a call out next Tuesday, DeNA also has one Friday I believe. Any chance for morsels there? I figure mobile-related things are most likely, but I'm curious if anything else may come about.

If anything comes out of DeNA pertaining to Nintendo, it'd likely be related to Nintendo's mobile gaming initiative.

 

[10k]

And as it relates to Nintendo, we've had a tremendous relationship with them over the years.

I'm not so sure that sentence means what you think it means, Mr. Wilson.

 

[Eradicate]

If anything comes out of DeNA pertaining to Nintendo, it'd likely be related to Nintendo's mobile gaming initiative.

True, but DeNA is also developing Nintendo's membership service, so I'm curious if anything related to that may hint at system connectedness, their new OS, or otherwise. I agree we likely won't hear anything hardware-related though.

 

[Mpl90]

Maybe, just maybe, we can get a little something from Electronic Arts' Q3 2016 Earnings Conference Call tomorrow, January 28, at 02:00 PM PT. They did last year in the Q2 2016 Earnings Conference Call respond to a question about NX:


Source: http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ERTS/1414455235x0x857661/6430018A-2AEA-4081-87D3-69D737B9FF35/EA_Q2_FY16_Transcript.pdf

It's EA, not expecting that much aside from vague statements, which could mean everything and nothing
I hope I'm not annoying, but any progresses about what you intended to do? Any ETA, if possible?

 

[Fourth Storm]

The Xbox One also had some form of physical option, but it was basically a glorified download pass. That was one of the major reasons behind the backlash. Until data caps are done away with & internet improves throughout the world, digital-only consoles won't be accepted by the general public. The reactions towards the Xbox One's pre-launch policies are proof of this. The world just isn't ready for a console or handheld with no means of playing your games without an internet connection.

They'll carry over Gamecards, sure. But people without internet are already limited and missing out on many great titles. Even Nintendo pushes eShop exclusives like Pushmo and now games like Pikmin 3 disappear making them effectively digital-only. I know we'll probably just have to agree to disagree, but I see Nintendo's target audience as more of the iPhone and Android users, who are already accustomed to downloads. We're still in transition, but the trend is less games on the shelves and larger digital catalogs.

I'm not sure if data caps are ever going away.

 

[Rösti]

It's EA, not expecting that much aside from vague statements, which could mean everything and nothing
I hope I'm not annoying, but any progresses about what you intended to do? Any ETA, if possible?

What I intended to do has already been done. It's just a matter of waiting now. No indication of normal office presence resumed, only dealt with by someone else close.

 

[Thraktor]

That would be fascinating, but as you say implementing something like that isn't trivial, and if AMD had the expertise they'd probably already be using it in their APUs.

Unless, of course, they partnered with a long-time Nintendo collaborator with a particular expertise in big eDRAM caches (including off-die).

Spoiler

Good luck to Nintendo getting an AMD APU to interface with an IBM L3 cache and memory controller chip...

Okay, I'm verging into crackpot territory here, but it's occurred to me since posting this that it isn't quite as impossible as I had previously assumed. The Wii U had an MCM with an IBM CPU running through a memory controller on an AMD/Nintendo/Renesas chip, so going the other way around wouldn't be completely out of the question.

Let's run with the hypothetical for a minute. For the APU, we take Bonaire, strip off the memory controllers, add two quad-core A72 clusters with 2MB L2 each, and a nice high bandwidth wide I/O interface to the daughter die. You'd be looking at maybe 220mm² at 28nm.

For the daughter die, we can measure a few pixels (fortunately IBM likes providing high-res die shots for their chips) to tell us that 32MB of eDRAM cache takes up approximately 43mm² of die space at 22nm. Throw on a DDR3/4 controller and the wide I/O to the APU, and a die-shrunk Espresso for BC and OS while you're at it. The whole thing would come to perhaps 70mm² or so on IBM GF's 22nm process (which would be around as mature for NX as their 45nm process was for Wii U).

At that point you could probably get away with 128-bit DDR3/4, so you've got cheap memory, two relatively small dies on mature processes, and roughly XBO-level performance without the memory management headache. Should come in more power efficient and cheaper than XBO, too.

I don't at all expect the above to happen, but it actually starts to make a lot more sense than it should.

 

[Scum]

I'm just hoping for modern hardware in both the handheld and console. No more exotic shite, NCL. (Not that they could have such a thing nowadays...)

 

[AdanVC]

Yeah at this point in time Nintendo could technically release a powerful console than PS4. A powerful console where the real innovation and unique concept relies on the way the console manages your games implemented neatly into a unified and totally customizable OS ecosystem. Plus, a super cool comfortable and good looking traditional controller and great Nintendo games as we used to have.

 

[Eddie Nash]

Yeah at this point in time Nintendo could technically release a powerful console than PS4. A powerful console where the real innovation and unique concept relies on the way the console manages your games implemented neatly into a unified and totally customizable OS ecosystem. Plus, a super cool comfortable and good looking traditional controller and great Nintendo games as we used to have.

True, but that's not what we're gonna get. At least, not just that. There will be some kind of "gimmick". I just hope it's something fun, well implemented and that it's not completely underused.

 

[jahasaja]

Have not been fully up to date on the rumours and facts. As thought Iwata said that it was not a hybrid. But is that 100% confirmed?

Except for the greatest launch window line-up of all time the only thing that I think can save the NX console is if it is a hybrid.

 

[Neoxon]

Have not been fully up to date on the rumours and facts. As thought Iwata said that it was not a hybrid. But is that 100% confirmed?

Except for the greatest launch window line-up of all time the only thing that I think can save the NX console is if it is a hybrid.

As shown in the OP, Iwata ruled out the possibility of the NX Platform being a single-device hybrid twice before he died. This however doesn't rule out a shared software library between multiple NX devices sharing an architecture & an OS.

 

[Hero of Legend]

I'm thinking folks are not really reading the OP...

Someone suggested it a while ago, should I make a tl:dr version of each topic on top?

 

[Nightbird]

I'm thinking folks are not really reading the OP...

Some people will never read an OP, no matter how short you'll keep it, I realized that with the Thread I made yesterday.

And if an OP is long, there will be even more who won't.

Tl:dr: A tlr version, and a title change to read the OP could do wonders.

 

[gulma1]

As long as they (Nintendo) don't go with an expensive technology like 3D and a tablet, I think NX will do better than 3DS/Wii U.

Wonder if we get any info from Nintendo during the meeting

 

[Roo]

No matter what Nintendo does, NX home console derivate will struggle to get above 20mn LTD unless it really comes with a surprisingly good concept.

I want to believe they're well aware of that and will set their expectations accordingly.

Coming from a commercial failure such as Wii U and releasing a brand new console mid gen when the competition is already stablished certainly won't be an easy task and selling 20 million should be a decent number all things considered.

 

[Papacheeks]

I want to believe they're well aware of that and will set their expectations accordingly.

Coming from a commercial failure such as Wii U and releasing a brand new console mid gen when the competition is already stablished certainly won't be an easy task and selling 20 million should be a decent number all things considered.

20 million in what amount of time though? 20 million is below gamecube numbers?

How is this good in any way, and how are investors going to react if that is what they set projections wise?

 

[Neoxon]

20 million in what amount of time though? 20 million is below gamecube numbers?

How is this good in any way, and how are investors going to react if that is what they set projections wise?

The handheld would probably pick up the slack in this scenario. And honestly, 20 million is a rather realistic expectation for the NX Console given the sales trends of Nintendo consoles.

 

[Hydrus]

WTF! 3ds has only sold 54 Mill? I thought it was over 100 by now. Man that's a big drop off from DS

 

[ika]

Great thread with all the confirmed and "real" info. Thanks to the TC, I hope this is not locked soon as I'm sure well get some details in less than a week. Maybe Kimishima will just say "we are planing to show the thing at E3/Nintendo Direct", but I hope he discurses some of the "brand new concept" and the Nintendo Account.