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[Phoenix Down]

Dragon Quest X

Though Japan is pretty much close to a lost cause for PS3.

FF13+pricedrop= I doubt it

 

[Ponn]

FF13+pricedrop= I doubt it

Then your question was just redundant if you're not actually accepting answers. Go back and edit your original comment with

"I believe what I believe and nothing you can say will change my mind, nyah nyah"

 

[justjohn]

FF13+pricedrop= I doubt it

i usually get my ps3 is doomed rhetoric from the mc and npd threads, but i guess this week it came early. oh well, we'll start all over again on thursday.

 

[Phoenix Down]

*sigh*

I really don't feel like going through the bullet point list of 'why you're completely wrong' yet again.

Can someone else field it this time?

Im not spreading this as a fact its simply my opinion.. treat it as such

there is no right or wrong

Spoiler

unless you have a time machine

here...

 

[Phoenix Down]

Then your question was just redundant if you're not actually accepting answers. Go back and edit your original comment with

"I believe what I believe and nothing you can say will change my mind, nyah nyah"

the ps3 isent a lost cause is japan.. the 360 is

 

[Pureauthor]

FF13+pricedrop= I doubt it

Alright. Let's say FFXIII sells 4 million in Japan. (Which is iffy at best.)

Next, let's say that everyone who buys FFXIII doesn't have a PS3, so the PS3 gets to sell 4 million as well. (Which, of course, won't happen.)

Next, let's say that, contrary to the buying habits of the Japanese, they don't just sell back FFXIII and the PS3 when they're done with it. (There's a reason why games in Japan are usually so front loaded, you know.)

And you know what? That still won't be enough for it to beat the Wii. Because the Wii is just selling that good right now.

 

[legend166]

Let's say that no one who bought FFXII owns a PS3.

So, by the time FFXIII comes out, if everyone of those people bought a PS3, the userbase would probably get to about 5 million.

I said wow.

 

[SovanJedi]

Im not spreading this as a fact its simply my opinion.. treat it as such

there is no right or wrong

Spoiler

unless you have a time machine

here...

It's fine to have an opinion when it doesn't fly in the face of logic and current market trends.

Do you assume that when the PS3 drops in price to this magical number no games are going to be out for the 360 or the Wii in that time? Do you assume that absolutely nothing will come out for both those machines? The 360 has a year's headstart and always will so it has at least a year's worth of titles out. Both the 360 and the Wii will have titles out, hundreds of titles, by the time Final Fantasy XIII is out.

Which will look the most valuable to the average consumer? A machine that's had its price slashed and a major next gen title finally released for it, or two other machines that have been cheaper all this time with huge catalogues of games, many of which are THEIR major titles, some of which will probably have had sequels announced for them by the time FF is released?

 

[Phoenix Down]

Alright. Let's say FFXIII sells 4 million.

Next, let's say that everyone who buys FFXIII doesn't have a PS3, so the PS3 gets to sell 4 million as well.

Next, let's say that, contrary to the buying habits of the Japanese, they don't just sell back FFXIII and the PS3 when they're done with it. (There's a reason why games in Japan are usually so front loaded, you know.)

And you know what? That still won't be enough for it to beat the Wii. Because the Wii is just selling that good right now.

maybe if FF13 come out today.. but i dont see FF13 selling only 4 million copies when its released late 2008/2009 the ps3 userbase is will expanded and the barrier of entry will be alot cheaper

your statement (to me) doesent make much sense

 

[Parl]

*sigh*

I really don't feel like going through the bullet point list of 'why you're completely wrong' yet again.

Can someone else field it this time?

NPD?

 

[Pureauthor]

maybe if FF13 come out today.. but i dont see FF13 selling only 4 million copies when its released late 2008/2009 the ps3 userbase is will expanded and the barrier of entry will be alot cheaper

your statement (to me) doesent make much sense

...You don't get it. I was trying to give the PS3 (and FFXIII) every possible advantage. 4 million for FFXIII is already stellar for the series.

Just so you remember, we're talking Japan. And for comparison's sake, Dragon Quest VIII sold 3.5 million. DQ is more popular than Final Fantasy there.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

It's fine to have an opinion when it doesn't fly in the face of logic and current market trends.

Do you assume that when the PS3 drops in price to this magical number no games are going to be out for the 360 or the Wii in that time? Do you assume that absolutely nothing will come out for both those machines? The 360 has a year's headstart and always will so it has at least a year's worth of titles out. Both the 360 and the Wii will have titles out, hundreds of titles, by the time Final Fantasy XIII is out.

Which will look the most valuable to the average consumer? A machine that's had its price slashed and a major next gen title finally released for it, or two other machines that have been cheaper all this time with huge catalogues of games, many of which are THEIR major titles, some of which will probably have had sequels announced for them by the time FF is released?

Thanks. Much better than I could have put it.

 

[Phoenix Down]

It's fine to have an opinion when it doesn't fly in the face of logic and current market trends.

Do you assume that when the PS3 drops in price to this magical number no games are going to be out for the 360 or the Wii in that time? Do you assume that absolutely nothing will come out for both those machines? The 360 has a year's headstart and always will so it has at least a year's worth of titles out. Both the 360 and the Wii will have titles out, hundreds of titles, by the time Final Fantasy XIII is out.

Which will look the most valuable to the average consumer? A machine that's had its price slashed and a major next gen title finally released for it, or two other machines that have been cheaper all this time with huge catalogues of games, many of which are THEIR major titles, some of which will probably have had sequels announced for them by the time FF is released?

I dont think FF13 will be the first major title for the PS3... what happen to MGS4?

if i was the average consumer.. i would look at both whats comming to the console and what all ready available.. all 3 consoles have good librarys.. but theres only 1 console where i can play MOST* of the most critically acclamied games of last gen that im familar with DMC4,GT5,MGS4,FF13 to name a few

 

[Pureauthor]

I dont think FF13 will be the first major title for the PS3... what happen to MGS4?

MGS isn't a big seller. Never has been.

if i was the average consumer.. i would look at both whats comming to the console and what all ready available.. all 3 consoles have good librarys.. but theres only 1 console where i can play MOST* of the most critically acclamied games of last gen that im familar with DMC4,GT5,MGS4,FF13 to name a few

You aren't an average consumer.

 

[Bulla564]

It's fine to have an opinion when it doesn't fly in the face of logic and current market trends.

Do you assume that when the PS3 drops in price to this magical number no games are going to be out for the 360 or the Wii in that time? Do you assume that absolutely nothing will come out for both those machines? The 360 has a year's headstart and always will so it has at least a year's worth of titles out. Both the 360 and the Wii will have titles out, hundreds of titles, by the time Final Fantasy XIII is out.

Which will look the most valuable to the average consumer? A machine that's had its price slashed and a major next gen title finally released for it, or two other machines that have been cheaper all this time with huge catalogues of games, many of which are THEIR major titles, some of which will probably have had sequels announced for them by the time FF is released?

The wii is not a contender for people looking to upgrade from the PS2 into next-gen. When it comes down to the X360, its line-up is not looking too different from the Xbox (aside from a few new IPs), including the fact that the PC is still a viable alternative to it. With the games announced for 2008, the X360 is not set for this huge explosion in demand. Halo 3 might, but even if Gears 2 is released in 08, it doesn't really change the current proposition of the X360 line-up.

To the contrary, the PS3 is just getting started (think X360 before Gears), and its proposition is only getting better. With more and more franchises that PS2 owners loved being released, the temptation to upgrade to next-gen will become harder. Add the fact that by the end of 2008, the HD standard will become clearer, with all signs pointing to Blu-ray.

 

[Weisheit]

The wii is not a contender for people looking to upgrade from the PS2 into next-gen. When it comes down to the X360, its line-up is not looking too different from the Xbox (aside from a few new IPs), including the fact that the PC is still a viable alternative to it. With the games announced for 2008, the X360 is not set for this huge explosion in demand. Halo 3 might, but even if Gears 2 is released in 08, it doesn't really change the current proposition of the X360 line-up.

To the contrary, the PS3 is just getting started (think X360 before Gears), and its proposition is only getting better. With more and more franchises that PS2 owners loved being released, the temptation to upgrade to next-gen will become harder. Add the fact that by the end of 2008, the HD standard will become clearer, with all signs pointing to Blu-ray.

:lol You keep telling yourself that.

 

[Vagabundo]

I dont think FF13 will be the first major title for the PS3... what happen to MGS4?

if i was the average consumer.. i would look at both whats comming to the console and what all ready available.. all 3 consoles have good librarys.. but theres only 1 console where i can play MOST* of the most critically acclamied games of last gen that im familar with DMC4,GT5,MGS4,FF13 to name a few

You would be amazed at the lack of logic most gamers will show when buying machines. Mostly it is a bit of an impulse when they have an extra bit of cash or some really obscure game or weird feature that they want.

Sometimes it is just playing a friends Wii sports for 5 minutes when picking up their kid.

 

[rs7k]

Pretty much.

Company x needs to make a PC, PS3 and 360 game. They start on 360 and do PC as well, but they have to redo the entire thing for PS3, making it a late port (fucks up marketing, publishing, quarterly nonsense and so on) and it also is worse; framerate issues among other things.

Company y needs to make a PC, PS3 and 360 game. They start on PS3, make the game as they see fit (actually using PS3's hardware to boot!), then from there, they can do the PC and 360 ports without having to redo the entire friggin game. Everyone wins.

360 was lead platform for a while because it was out longer, they had the dev kits longer and began work on games before really having a grasp with PS3.

But if they have to do a PS3 port anyway, why make it harder, more expensive and more time consuming than it has to be?

Because you want your version with the most sales potential to be the one that's ready first, through every stage of development. It's really not as simple as you put it. It's easier to get the game running first on 360 than PS3.

 

[Phoenix Down]

...You don't get it. I was trying to give the PS3 (and FFXIII) every possible advantage. 4 million for FFXIII is already stellar for the series.

Just so you remember, we're talking Japan. And for comparison's sake, Dragon Quest VIII sold 3.5 million. DQ is more popular than Final Fantasy there.

i thought you was talking wordwide ff13 sales

 

[Phoenix Down]

MGS isn't a big seller. Never has been.



You aren't an average consumer.

MGS2 sold 7 million.. thats not big? alright

who are you to judge who the "average consumer" is

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Want to know how dire the PS3 situation in Japan is? FFXIII doesn't mean shit anymore. I'll go ahead and say there's no chance of it hitting 4 million in Japan (when is the last time an FF did?) and 3 million is extremely unlikely.

Given that, by the time it comes out, every man, woman, and child that wants FFXIII could buy a PS3 that day and it would still not be near the Wii's total.

Does that make the situation sink in any?

 

[Pureauthor]

Dragon Quest X

Though Japan is pretty much close to a lost cause for PS3.

Then you responded:

FF13+pricedrop= I doubt it

In that context, what could we be talking about BUT Japan?

MGS2 sold 7 million.. thats not big? alright

In Japan. JA. PAN.

 

[Weisheit]

I dont think FF13 will be the first major title for the PS3... what happen to MGS4?

if i was the average consumer.. i would look at both whats comming to the console and what all ready available.. all 3 consoles have good librarys.. but theres only 1 console where i can play MOST* of the most critically acclamied games of last gen that im familar with DMC4,GT5,MGS4,FF13 to name a few

Why are you under the impression that the "average consumer" played those games last gen?
Look at sales numbers (from those games) then look at PS2's userbase, you'll see most people who owned PS2 never played any of those games.

 

[Neomoto]

:lol So much denial in this thread. It's awesome.

I won't touch the subject about wether or not the PS3 is failing or not (which I think it IS right NOW), but I don't understand why so many people think that the Wii will only last 2.5 years or something. I can see it lasting a whole normal generation, easily. The Wii has everything going for it to do so. And first party software will drive hardware for years to come (in combination with some 'stellar' 3rd party games which can drive hardware which aren't on the system right now). That is has lesser graphics don't mean shit at the end of the day. Have you not paid atention what so ever the last YEAR? The Wii doesn't hold a candle to the magnificent graphics of the ps3 and x360, doesn't seem to stop Wii from butchering them combined. Games are and will always be the number one reason to make or break a console, if the software (be it first or third party) delivers and keeps delivering like, say, with the DS, the Wii is in for one hell of a ride.

 

[Bulla564]

:lol You keep telling yourself that.

It's not. Nintendo franchises, wiimote, and PS2 graphics are not enough to motivate PS2 owners to buy it, when looking for a next-gen version of the franchises and games they have enjoyed for so many years.

Don't be fooled by the current wii demand. They are probably not PS2-only owners (except Japan maybe).

 

[CassSept]

FF13+pricedrop= I doubt it

So Ps3 will get boost in late 08/early 09? Great!

 

[RubberJohnny]

It's not. Nintendo franchises, wiimote, and PS2 graphics are not enough to motivate PS2 owners to buy it, when looking for a next-gen version of the franchises and games they have enjoyed for so many years.

Thy're not looking for a next-gen version. They don't care about next-gen.

 

[rs7k]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Wii lasted longer than the PS3. In fact, it's what I expect will happen.

Nintendo will be able to sell the Wii at $79 when Sony and Microsoft look at their new systems.

 

[SovanJedi]

The wii is not a contender for people looking to upgrade from the PS2 into next-gen. When it comes down to the X360, its line-up is not looking too different from the Xbox (aside from a few new IPs), including the fact that the PC is still a viable alternative to it. With the games announced for 2008, the X360 is not set for this huge explosion in demand. Halo 3 might, but even if Gears 2 is released in 08, it doesn't really change the current proposition of the X360 line-up.

To the contrary, the PS3 is just getting started (think X360 before Gears), and its proposition is only getting better. With more and more franchises that PS2 owners loved being released, the temptation to upgrade to next-gen will become harder. Add the fact that by the end of 2008, the HD standard will become clearer, with all signs pointing to Blu-ray.

This is all - again, and again, and again - assuming that all that's coming out next year for "misc consoles" were the games announced at E3 this year. Which is a pretty damn big oversight to make.

Don't be fooled by the current wii demand. They are probably not PS2-only owners (except Japan maybe).

That's funny. Where is this book published again? What were we talking about?

 

[Bulla564]

Thy're not looking for a next-gen version. They don't care about next-gen.

sarcasm? I guess so.

 

[SovanJedi]

sarcasm? I guess so.

Are you completely in denial about sales figures at all? The Wii is outselling the PS3 and 360 COMBINED. SEVERAL TIMES OVER.

What's your excuse going to be when the Wii whizzes past the Gamecube's LTD in Japan by the end of the year? Ps2 owners not jumping to the machine my arse.

 

[theguy]

MGS isn't a big seller. Never has been.

MGS isn't a big seller?

 

[Vyer]

It's not. Nintendo franchises, wiimote, and PS2 graphics are not enough to motivate PS2 owners to buy it, when looking for a next-gen version of the franchises and games they have enjoyed for so many years.

Don't be fooled by the current wii demand. They are probably not PS2-only owners (except Japan maybe).

Why did your statement change?

You said the Wii wasn't an option PS2 owners looking for a new system would consider.

Then you changed it to 'PS2-only' owners. (Though I'm not sure what the difference is).

If you honestly think that with all the Wii units selling some of those aren't made up of last gen PS2 owners, I'd say your logic is seriously flawed.

 

[Pureauthor]

MGS isn't a big seller?

Again: Japan.

No, it isn't. It's never broken 1.5 million, IIRC.

 

[Weisheit]

sarcasm? I guess so.

120 million.
Thats PS2's userbase, now how many people bought GTA or GT last gen?
Now subtract that number from PS2's userbase. That leaves at least 100 million people.

I've said this forever, the huge majority of PS2 owners never bought MGS, GTA, GT, FF ect.
The huge majority of PS2 owners are casual players that dont give a shit about graphics, sound, or multimedia functions. If you think there are 10's of millions of people waiting around to upgrade to their trusted PSbrand......



:lol :lol :lol

 

[Pharmacy]

there is a metaphor bout dis thread here

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Wii is killing everything
?????
PS3 Wins!

 

[chubigans]

there is a metaphor bout dis thread here

:lol :lol

Is there a video of that anywhere?

 

[justjohn]

there is a metaphor bout dis thread here

:lol

 

[Bulla564]

What's your excuse going to be when the Wii whizzes past the Gamecube's LTD in Japan by the end of the year? Ps2 owners not jumping to the machine my arse.

Like I said, in Japan it might be the case, because of their newfound peculiar tastes. Not in any western market.

Why did your statement change?

You said the Wii wasn't an option PS2 owners looking for a new system would consider.

Then you changed it to 'PS2-only' owners. (Though I'm not sure what the difference is).

PS2-only owners is to highlight the 70+ million people that did not bother to get a GC or Xbox, who were drawn to the games in a Sony machine.

The huge majority of PS2 owners are casual players that dont give a shit about graphics, sound, or multimedia functions. If you think there are 10's of millions of people waiting around to upgrade to their trusted PSbrand......

I can tell you that there are not 10's of millions pf people waiting for the next Mario with waggle either here in the west.

 

[Phoenix Down]

If were just focusing on japan in the topic let me start off by saying the ps3 will most likely not outsell it there but they can coexist together .. in the end i see the PS3 doing well in japan.. increasing its overall marketshare well over the 360 late 08/09

 

[Freki]

who are you to judge who the "average consumer" is

The 'average consumer' doesnt visit gaming forums PERIOD.

 

[BenNX74205]

I can tell you that there are not 10's of millions pf people waiting for the next Mario with waggle either here in the west.

Nope. They don't have to wait for anything. The games the consumer wants are already out. Hence, the 9 months of Wii selling out. And not just in the west, but in the north, south, and east as well.

 

[Neomoto]

Like I said, in Japan it might be the case, because of their newfound peculiar tastes. Not in any western market.

Then explain why in the hell the Wii is performing ridiculously well in Europe whereas ALL their previous consoles sold like crap in comparisation? (Nintendo consoles never sold nearly as well in Europe as in Amerika or Japan).

Edit: I think that when this year is done, it has PASSED Gamecube's LTD but I don't know for sure. After only 1 year.

 

[Pureauthor]

If were just focusing on japan in the topic let me start off by saying the ps3 will most likely not outsell it there but they can coexist together .. end the end i see the PS3 doing well in japan.. increasing its overall marketshare well over the 360

That's kinda like saying you can jump higher than a garden slug.

Beating the X360 in Japan is nothing to crow about.

 

[Beer Monkey]

120 million.
Thats PS2's userbase, now how many people bought GTA or GT last gen?
Now subtract that number from PS2's userbase. That leaves at least 100 million people.

I've said this forever, the huge majority of PS2 owners never bought MGS, GTA, GT, FF ect.
The huge majority of PS2 owners are casual players that dont give a shit about graphics, sound, or multimedia functions.

Speaks the truth. The 'killer app' for the PS1 and PS2 was the enormous, deep, diverse third party support and tons of de facto exclusives since a third party could release a game for the Sony platform alone and make enough money to not care about competing platforms.

This is completely different this generation and Sony is not going to get the same kind of third party support and free exclusives. They have lost that advantage and that, along with the dumbass pricing (never position yourself to be the most expensive for an entire generation. Never!) is why they aren't going to get anywhere near 120 million hardware units this gen.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Like I said, in Japan it might be the case, because of their newfound peculiar tastes. Not in any western market.



PS2-only owners is to highlight the 70+ million people that did not bother to get a GC or Xbox, who were drawn to the games in a Sony machine.



I can tell you that there are not 10's of millions pf people waiting for the next Mario with waggle either here in the west.

North America is by far Wii's largest market.

 

[Weisheit]

Like I said, in Japan it might be the case, because of their newfound peculiar tastes. Not in any western market.



PS2-only owners is to highlight the 70+ million people that did not bother to get a GC or Xbox, who were drawn to the games in a Sony machine.



I can tell you that there are not 10's of millions pf people waiting for the next Mario with waggle either here in the west.

No, their still waiting to get their hands on Wii Sports.

 

[Tobor]

It's not. Nintendo franchises, wiimote, and PS2 graphics are not enough to motivate PS2 owners to buy it, when looking for a next-gen version of the franchises and games they have enjoyed for so many years.

Don't be fooled by the current wii demand. They are probably not PS2-only owners (except Japan maybe).

Delusion still running rampant I see.

 

[JavyOO7]

I put it to you like this.. theres only 1 console out of the three I think has the potential to sale 100 million units in the next 7-8 years.. and its not the wii.. this particular console im refering to wont have a high price point for long and will sell really well in all 3 major territorys unlike the 360.. its inevietable

The 360 has a better chance to sell 100 million units than the PS3 does.

The main-line 360 is what... over $450 still? And its selling quite nicely for a console that has that price range. THe games are already there, even though the games tailor to the hardcore market and not enough to the consumers who truly dictate where the industry goes; the casual gamer. The moment Halo 3 comes out the 360 will capture momentum that the original Xbox could not have. It'll ease the fears of HD gaming for all the hardcore gamers out there; but the 360 will have the majority of that pie and the PS3 won't.

PS3 sales are abysmal. No one thought a year ago that Nintendo's console that houses a weird controller would be outselling the Playstation juggernaut. But it has now and it will continue for the forseeable future. Its quite surprising that Sony's exec's did not see the transition that the industry was going go through. They're just like Nintendo 10 years ago. Their 'dream team' is essentially their first party developers. Can they carry the system? Probably. But after this year is over their image will be set in stone. Some folk in this thread say that by end of '08 the PS3 will be over 18 million? Nah. It won't even touch 13 million the way things are going right now.

First place is no longer for Sony. And in reality that isn't such a bad thing, they won't go belly up like the Dreamcast did, but this illusion of first place and selling over 100 million consoles... no way. If the PS3 catches on fire, and that's a big if, it would still have to take over the Wii which is basically the PS2 of this generation (in terms of sales, game quality remains to be seen). Be content it will come out with great games from first party and the 3rd party gem sprinkled in. But don't be surprised if HD development next year or in 2009 shifts priority to soely the 360.