Less than a billion to go!
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Wkd Box Office Est. 0511-13 12 - Depp/Burton bask in shadow of Whedon's Avengers
- Thread starter xaosslug
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Less than a billion to go!
XiaNaphryz
LATIN, MATRIPEDICABUS, DO YOU SPEAK IT
It would have to average ~ $83M per week WW for 12 weeks to break 2 billion.
Around $148M per week WW for 12 weeks to tie Avatar.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Finding Neverland was a fine movie.
I didn't see Imaginarium of Dr Parnissis, perhaps that was good?
Still, point made.
He was good in the movie.
Imaginarium was a far better movie than Dark Shadows- I think IoDP was on par with the first PotC.
I would think that at the end of the day, the movie industry is a business and what matters is how much the movie brings in. Attendance may be down, but movies are making a lot of money at the box office these days. Granted, it's like the game industry where many bomb and the blockbusters hold them up. But I don't see any benefit to producers and studios measuring "success" by attendance unless it translates to more money.
B_Rik_Schitthaus
Banned
Only when you can go buy a house with attendance.
RubxQub
ÏÎ¯Î»Ï á¼Î¾ÎµÏÎÎ³Î»Î¿Ï Ïον καί ÏÎµÏ Î´Î¿Î»Ïγον οá½Îº εἰÏÏν
Fucking awesome :lol
This. As much as we may want it to be, the box office is not a sporting event. The only statistics that really matter to those who need them is the money.
I say $600M for now. It could go higher or (a little) lower, but I think it is too early to tell. We should have a better idea in about a week. $550M is pretty much guaranteed at this point though. The movie is $60M ahead of the Dark Knight at this point, and TDK made another $220M after its second weekend. The chances that Avengers will fail to make $180M more coming off a $100M second weekend are slim to none. It would have to make less than 1.8x its second weekend take for the rest of its run. The Hunger Games held worse through its first week and its post second weekend earnings are 2.35x its second weekend take and counting.
If the Avengers made 2.35x its second weekend tally during the rest of its run, it would be at $615M.
EDIT: It will have made 90%+ of its earning before then, but I think the crowded June schedule, and the launch of Spider-Man at the start of July, will cut into the Avengers late legs a bit. The Dark Knight made 2.93x its second weekend take during the rest of its run, but it had a lot less competition late in its run and it had summer dailies. I don't think the Avengers' legs will be quite that good. If they were, the movie would make $673M and overtake Titanic.
sonycowboy
Member
It's still too early to tell. It's ~almost a lock to pass TDK, but this week and weekend will give an even better idea of the legs (they look good so far). Really, it's going to be a week-by-week thing, but this weekend will give us an idea of if 600M is likely.
If the drops are similar to TDK for the next 3 1/2 weeks, we'll almost be at 600M domestically after 35 days...
Code:
Week Week Totals Cume Total % Drop
1 270,000,000 270,000,000
2 148,500,000 418,500,000 -0.45
3 89,100,000 507,600,000 -0.40
4 53,460,000 561,060,000 -0.40
5 32,076,000 593,136,000 -0.40Avengers would need to have the worst legs ever for a major superhero movie from this point forward not to beat The Dark Knight. Worse than Iron Man 2, Wolverine, X-men: The Last Stand, etc. Even green lantern legs beyond weekend 2 puts it on par with the Dark Knight. Green Lantern dropped 64% and 56% in its third and fourth weekend. Considering that movies almost never drop as hard in week 3 as they do in week 2, and that week 4 for the avengers is a holiday weekend (where a drop of 35% would be extremely high), the chance that Avengers does not pass TDK is next to 0.
Manmademan
Member
What kind of bump do you expect Amazing Spiderman to get, given the success of the Avengers? Personally I expect it to overperform.
or do you anticipate Superhero Fatigue setting in instead? (I think its too early for superhero fatigue)
Speedymanic
Banned
I was having a meltdown? pretty sure I wasn't.
If memory serves, you were the getting pretty steamed/hot under the collar.
Ducky (duckroll) stepped in and stopped you but whatever, keep imagining things.
PIMPBYBLUD
Member
He keeps playing the same type of roles.
Speedymanic
Banned
lol. Posts are there for all to see, I'm sure they can make their minds up as to who was really on the verge of losing their cool.
Indeed;
:lolUsually telling other people to calm down and suggesting other people are about to meltdown when there are no signs of any such things happening is a sign that the person saying that is on edge. Just saying.
It was understandable why you were on the edge - you predicted Avengers wouldnt even break 250M domestic.
I also expect that it will get a best from the Avengers, but its hard to say what that even means.
Good Job Bob
Member
Maybe people will think Spider-Man will get eventually tied into the Avengers franchise and so it'll get a boost from that?
Manmademan
Member
well, most people aren't aware that Spider Man and the Avengers movies are controlled by two completely different studios. They're all just "marvel movies" to the general public.
I'd expect some talk of a tie-in, but there's a LOT of renewed interest in the MU in general (books, tv shows, older movies) and I expect some of that to bleed over to increased interest in Spiderman, which has traditionally been a pretty strong box office property.
Hard to say:
(+) Avengers may have gotten people excited for superhero films again after a so-so 2011
(+) Spider-man is one of the most popular superheroes in the world and heavily appeals to children who aren't as concerned about the quality of past films
(+) Other than Ice Age (which isn't that large in North America) ASM has 17 days on the market with little demographic overlap until TDKR
(-) Spider-man 3 sucked. This will turn off some adult fans (see Pirates 4 and Mission Impossible 3 domestically)
(-) Some people may think that 10 years is too soon for another Spider-man origin movie.
(-) TDKR will kill its legs starting on Day 18.
I am not sure I buy super hero fatigue. We had 4 super hero films last year, and both Thor and Captain America performed pretty similarly despite Thor launching with no other superhero films, and Cap launching shortly after 2 other superhero films. I don't think Captain America would have made any more even if it was the only suprehero film that year. People see movies they are interested in.
Amazing Spider-man's gross will depend a lot on how good the movie is. With a Tuesday launch, it will have a lot of time to build either positive or negative WOM going into that first weekend.
To speak personally, I loved the Avengers to such an extent that it has gotten me more excited about super heroes in general. Having seen the trailer paired with the Avengers twice, I am now much more excited about ASM.
I can rationally say that the quality of the Avengers will have no impact on the quality of ASM, but I am more excited none the less.
Speedymanic
Banned
lol. You were pretty much on the edge if Ducky hadn't intervened with his misguided claims.
So much so, that you later attempted to brush your posts off as sarcasm.
I'm done wasting my time with you here.
Terrible terrible terrible midnight numbers, I dont think Avengers will gross 250M domestic.
I love this post the most,
At no point was I on the verge of losing my cool, your posts, when taken in the proper context, very clearly show someone slowly losing their cool.
There are only two things I see going against Spider-man. That is one, and this other is the simple challenge in re-launching a franchise. There is no guarantee that it will be able to pick up where the last one left off in terms of audience interest, though that can be seen as both a positive and a negative.
kame-sennin
Member
Theater attendance has been trending downwards for years. If studios reported ticket sales, they wouldn't be able to break the records they set in the 70s and 80s. Most other sectors of the entertainment industry go by unit sales (books, music, video games), but reporting gross gives the impression of continued growth, which is better for investors and creates hype.
I see it as mostly a positive, the last one was pretty widely recognized as terrible and we needed a new face for Spiderman, a new direction. The brand wasn't hurt by the last movie, just the people involved in that movie. I expect it to do better than SM 2 for sure.
Manmademan
Member
yeah, if previously terrible movies always meant doom then Batman Begins would have had a hell of a time after Schumacher shit all over the batman franchise.
A clean break (First Class after X-3, Batman Begins after Batman) and a reboot after an awful film can generate some goodwill from fans, I think.
Movies are a lot more expensive to go see now though. My parents didn't have a ton of money as children, but they have told me stories of going to the theatre almost every weekend as children. Matinee tickets were 25-50 cents. Popcorn was 10 cents. Adjusting for inflation, 50 cents is ~$3.50. The cheapest I can see a movie in my city for is $5.25 on Tuesdays (with a Cineplex Odeon Scene card. Without it, the movie is $7.25). If I want to go to a 3D movie, the cheapest price is $8.25. Popcorn is like $4.50 for a small.
I am only 30, and even I can remember $4.50 being regular ticket price and $2.25 being matinee price. $4.50 in 1992-1993 would be around $6.75 now. Not $10-13.
Makes sense that more people went to the movies back when everyone could afford to. Taking your wife and two children to the movies now can cost up to $80 if everyone wants popcorn and a drink. Tickets alone are $35. Even more for 3D or IMAX. Much cheaper to just wait 4 months and rend the movie in HD for $6.
Worldwide or Domestically? Because I think that ASM will have an really tough time hitting $370M domestically. In fact, I wouldn't say it is a lock for $300M yet. On the other hand, 3D plus Spidey's popularity overseas makes beating Spider-man 2 worldwide a much easier task.
Spider-Man 2 made $783M WW. If ASM simply matched Spider-man 3's international cume of $554M, it would have to make about $230M domestically to tie Spider-Man 2 worldwide. Shrek 4 was the largest in the series internationally, so this is not that unlikely.
kame-sennin
Member
This doesn't make any sense. Audiences drive the entertainment industry. It's not like cars where you can make extremely high end products that a small number of people will pay a lot of money for. If Hollywood films don't play to a large audience, the industry is in trouble. Last I checked, theater attendance was going down while ticket prices were going up. There is mostly likely an inflection point coming. Looking at theater attendance is the only way to predict that.
I didn't say that there wasn't a good reason for theater attendance to be down, I simply stated that it is. Some novels used to sell for a dime, but the publishing industry still reports unit sales.
WW and OW.
Novels and records are products that you buy and own. they are the equivalent of the home video market which does report in units. Theatrical movies are more similar to concerts or plays which often do report earnings over ticket sales (though some do both).
I don't know about opening weekend. The fourth of July is a Wednesday, and ASM opens on a Tuesday. With many people off work that Thursday and Friday, I think a lot of demand will be burnt off before the weekend. It will need a weekend pretty close to Transformers 3 to do that.
I didn't word my post very well. The studios know what they need to know under the current reporting process. Releasing detailed attendance numbers rather than money doesn't benefit them in any way.
cutmeamango
Banned
Why don't they track unique costumers? I'm pretty sure a lot of people are taking their grandmas to see Avengers, and they can't even understand what is happening!, more than once. That won't happen with the real blockbusters to come!
ThisWreckage
Banned
I am seriously worried that Prometheus won't do well at the box office. I think that the rating might I hurt it. I think that the title of the film works against it. It doesn't appeal to a wide demographic, etc.
Speedymanic
Banned
50m OW, strong word of mouth might keep it in the top ten for a few weeks, but it won't more than 150m, if that, from the US BO. Will do better WW due to rating differences and do gangbusters on home release.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
I know it's not the main conversation, but those legs on Hunger Games are impressive. Two months out and still making notable money.
-Plasma Reus-
Service guarantees member status
Don't really care myself. The film has been made. Nothing else matters. And I have no financial stake in it.
So if it does good numbers, well done. If it doesn't, I won't lose sleep over it. And it will probably mean we'll get a faster bluray release for it.
TheKaeptain
Banned
This thread is only at six pages on its 6th page... Me posting= more pages. Confirmed.
R might hurt the US gross. But luckily most countries have rating scales that make more sense than the US scale which jumps from PG-13 to R. If Fox was unsure whether the film would get a PG-13 or an R, I would imagine that the film is a softer R. That means a 14A in Ontario and 13-15 ratings in most other countries. So, like the Matrix movies, teenagers will be able to go in most countries, boosting international grosses.
ratcliffja
Member
What?
XiaNaphryz
LATIN, MATRIPEDICABUS, DO YOU SPEAK IT
Err...isn't that how it should be?
Speedymanic
Banned
Shortsighted view.
Think about it, if it's a success, it sends a message to all studios that there's a market for R rated movies, be they horror, action, etc. They'll realize that they no longer need to dumb down every movie to appeal to every demographic.
That's why it has to do well, if it doesn't...say hello to PG-13 AvP3.
Good Job Bob
Member
Your posts are only posts that you made that I don't understand. You posting = more confusion. Confirmed.
kame-sennin
Member
I'm not against reporting gross. But reporting gross without reporting ticket sales can be misleading.
I see. I agree with that. I wonder if ticket sales are released in reports to investors. If they're not, I honestly think the SEC should force them to.
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