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[FairXchange]

500k in 12 hours is 1 million in a day in terms of rate. Xbox One will probably have neck and neck one-day-NA sales vs. the PS4.

That's a lofty bet, sir. Not a chance. They wouldn't have announced 1million WW if there was 1 million sales in NA today. The time they announced this (12 hours into the sales day) is strategic, if there were more figures to announce, what on earth would compel them not to?

 

[KoopaTheCasual]

Yes I know. I just find it funny that people somehow don't realize that the Xbox One hasn't been out for more than a day in North America.

"This must mean that the Xbox One had half the number of PS4 day one sales in North America!"

It's just funny considering the fact that these stats use NA sales from earlier in the day. People saying "half the sales" without realizing that these stats could be based on 12 hours after NA Midnight launch.. you know.. half a day.

500k in 12 hours is 1 million in a day in terms of rate. Xbox One will probably have neck and neck one-day-NA sales vs. the PS4.

Keep telling yourself that. We can all sit here and make excuses for the PS4 as well, but that doesn't get us anywhere. What we do have is hard numbers. The only argument that stands any merit is Albert's and that it's a supply issue, not a demand one.

 

[Bgamer90]

They aren't, but if you like xbox it shouldn't matter.

Heh, again, you say "they aren't" when yet there are no NA Xbox One stats that were made 24 hours after launch -- since, you know, it hasn't been 24 hours yet.

 

[Y2Kev]

The problem with your logic is your basing a faulty products failure on two other products. The wii had problems going into this generation because it wasn't next gen and had much market confusion. You still have people who buy wii u games for their wii. In terms of software sales, have you not seem the latest npd? They are up.

Uh....

You're basing this on full-gen hardware sales. Considering how fast the Wii went from the hottest thing ever to dead last and forgotten, there are probably a significant number of Wii owners who "upgraded" to a PS3 or 360, and plenty more - of all 3 consoles - who don't still use them.

The industry would only "contract" if the total number of active users were to decline, and that's probably already happened. The PS4/XB1 will probably reverse that trend.

I think using full-gen hardware sales is the best metric to compare against. Unless you can suggest an alternative metric or way to measure defections/upgrades/closet stuffers, I will just compare the only way that I think is fair and consistent across generations.

There's little argument the Wii expanded the market and now those consumers have left the space, so that would be a contraction and that to me is very worrisome. Even if you suppose the hardcore are growing at a steady rate (compared to the explosive Wii-led casual growth last gen) and are a reliable group that will always show up, there's still going to be a very large hole that studios will have to be aware of.

Now I would suppose many of the AAA studios will probably be unaffected-- or perhaps more affected by the increased budget more than the decrease in potential consumers-- but there was a ton of software moved on Wii last gen and we'll see even further contraction in the sub-AAA space. That's really upsetting to me.

Doesn't part of the contract fall on Nintendo's head? And I know you'll say "those games should pick up a different console," but I'm personally wondering if there are any figures of multiple console owners. It seems like that number would at least be several million, and those numbers don't count as a totally of "console gamers". I would optimistically hope for 200million after 8 years.

Also, you have to remember Nintendo will most likely be launching a new system in the middle of this 'generation', and that will count towards the console total. This picture isn't so cut and dry.

I do think it falls on Nintendo's head, yeah, but everyone will feel it.

 

[rokkerkory]

I can't believe some are deriving #s for the gen after 1 week's worth of sales.

Maybe for Wii U lol

 

[Y2Kev]

But is the Wii U tanking really hurting the overall industry or just Nintendo? Outside of a few third party games on the Wii, all of last gens best selling 3rd party games performed their best on PS3/360.

The audience of the Wii was an anomaly and one that may not return, but that mostly hurts Nintendo rather than the overall industry. I just don't think we can accurately gauge the current health of the industry based on Nintendo's successes and failures given the out of control changes in their marketshare recently. Now if we have reason to believe the PS3/360 audience isn't coming back... that is scary.

There were a lot of titles that sold very well on the Wii that are just (obviously) not as visible or as memorable to the hardcore community. Games like Rock Band, Guitar Hero, the Lego series, Just Dance, a very large cross-section of B-tier games, etc.

 

[Alpolio]

PS4 sold over a million just in the US.

And there's not 9 thousand PS4's on eBay either.

 

[Kyoufu]

It more shows that going first isn't always an advantage, because Sony was going to do the exact same thing until the Xbone backlash.

I'll be more interested to see total sales for both after December. Less constriction due to supply chains and more reflective of what consumers really want to buy.

Source?

 

[twobear]

How many do we think Sony will sell in Europe next week? Another million? That'd be pretty much the 2:1 we'd heard. I wouldn't bet against 3:1 all told.

 

[ironcreed]

I love it. Long live the good old consoles.

 

[gryz]

why is it bad if the industry contracts? do there really need to be 2000 people making assasins creed sequels every year?

 

[oneida]

And there's not 9 thousand PS4's on eBay either.

did you actually look or did you just assume that was true

 

[fatgamecat]

So Xbox Ones seem to be in stock at most stores according to reports in this thread. I'm not seeing much in the way of shortages?

Comparing PS4 NA only sales to Xbox sales in 13 countries isn't very meaningful. 500-600k Xboxes seems like a reasonable estimate for NA only. Which is still a respectable number, and I congratulate MS for their successful launch. We'll get better worldwide numbers in the coming months.

Sony supplied 1 mil PS4s for NA alone. That suggests they have more total stock available to ship worldwide, given how soon the other launches are.

I also agree that it wasn't yield issues that caused Xbox to have low supply. They simply started manufacturing later, possibly because they planned for 2014 and had to push the launch up. Both SoCs are about the same size, so they have about the same yields.

 

[DietRob]

I'm not saying console gaming is in trouble or that I hope it is in trouble. I'm just saying this doesn't prove it isn't in trouble. The fact that the Wii U faceplanted means even if the PS4 and XB1 sell 120 million units each-- so that's a 50% improvement over where both of them are now-- the industry would contract. That's a little scary.

That there is pent up hardcore gamer demand...well, you know. These sales need to be sustained over long periods of time, but more importantly, software sales will need to massively improve over this gen because the Wii U is not going to sell squat for third parties.

I understand the point you are trying to make here. I do think it's good to note the last generation was an anomaly with the overwhelming success of the Wii. If Wii numbers are included in your analysis of how the last gen as a whole did I think that's a mistake. I don't think we'll ever see a dedicated gaming console sell as well as the Wii did in a single generation.

Another important note is that the 'peak' holiday shopping season has not yet arrived either. If MS and Sony are able to keep shelves stocked they are going to put up gaudy numbers. Certain websites and people have been preaching that consoles are dead and everyone games on cell phones for the past several years I think they are wrong. I think that the first week of sales for current gen systems proves that. I also think we'll never see Wii numbers again. Doesn't mean the industry is dying it means it's correcting itself.

 

[Unknown One]

How many do we think Sony will sell in Europe next week? Another million? That'd be pretty much the 2:1 we'd heard. I wouldn't bet against 3:1 all told.

I guess. I'm also guessing that Sony has some stock for Black Friday for NA. Sony should not miss this chance.

 

[Dr. Kitty Muffins]

One thing is for certain : Microsoft ' s PR didn't upset anyone outside of this forum. It worked very well.

And I would hazard a guess that the infamous Albert P interview regarding the Xbox 's power was extremely effective.

 

[Bgamer90]

Keep telling yourself that. We can all sit here and make excuses for the PS4 as well, but that doesn't get us anywhere. What we do have is hard numbers. The only argument that stands any merit is Albert's and that it's a supply issue, not a demand one.

So "one day" = 24 hours is now an excuse and not a fact? Haha, wow.

All I'm saying is you can't talk about day one NA Xbox One sales in conclusion since it hasn't been a full day yet in all areas of NA. It's not even midnight yet in the Eastern Time Zone.

But hey, let's continue on making day one NA Xbox One conclusions -- I'm pretty sure no one in the PST zone got a Xbox One after 5:30 PM. :|

Hilarious.

That's a lofty bet, sir. Not a chance. They wouldn't have announced 1million WW if there was 1 million sales in NA today.

But it has been a full 24-hour period after Xbox One launch in other territories of the world. It hasn't been a full 24-hour period after Xbox One launch"in ANY part of North America.

So what you said really doesn't make sense.

 

[mechphree]

Uh....



I think using full-gen hardware sales is the best metric to compare against. Unless you can suggest an alternative metric or way to measure defections/upgrades/closet stuffers, I will just compare the only way that I think is fair and consistent across generations.

There's little argument the Wii expanded the market and now those consumers have left the space, so that would be a contraction and that to me is very worrisome. Even if you suppose the hardcore are growing at a steady rate (compared to the explosive Wii-led casual growth last gen) and are a reliable group that will always show up, there's still going to be a very large hole that studios will have to be aware of.

Now I would suppose many of the AAA studios will probably be unaffected-- or perhaps more affected by the increased budget more than the decrease in potential consumers-- but there was a ton of software moved on Wii last gen and we'll see even further contraction in the sub-AAA space. That's really upsetting to me.



I do think it falls on Nintendo's head, yeah, but everyone will feel it.

Meh.

I look at it like the phone industry. If the latest Nokia or blackberry tanks, does that mean apple and Samsung have something to worry about? The problem with wii u was the product, not the industry it self. Most game devs aren't even porting stuff over to Wii U. Their is no interest in the console and it'll take more then a new Mario game or Zelda to help it out.

 

[Gartooth]

There were a lot of titles that sold very well on the Wii that are just (obviously) not as visible or as memorable to the hardcore community. Games like Rock Band, Guitar Hero, the Lego series, Just Dance, a very large cross-section of B-tier games, etc.

I think rising budget and opportunity cost is what is killing the B-tier games more than actual sales. The current PS4 roadmap seems to indicate that the future will be split between AAA $60 retail games and $10-$20 downloadable games. I hope that eventually B tier games can find their niche, but I don't think Nintendo platforms were/are much of a safe haven either.

 

[SyenceLabb]

Congrats Microsoft.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

why is it bad if the industry contracts? do there really need to be 2000 people making assasins creed sequels every year?

Nothing wrong at all, as long as you like seeing developers and publishers close and those employees sent looking for work in other industries. If you like seeing earnings decrease for the survivors, and stocks lose value, it's a double bonus. If that's your desire, then contraction is a great thing.

For others not into such ruin, they probably view contraction a bit differently.

 

[Version 3.0]

500k in 12 hours is 1 million in a day in terms of rate. Xbox One will probably have neck and neck one-day-NA sales vs. the PS4.

That is some seriously ridiculous math right there. At that rate, the Xbox One will also have 6 million sold in 3 days...right? And the PS4 is now at 8 million, because it was moving a million a day, too.

No. Probably well over half of day 1 sales were pre-orders. The other half were probably 90+% sold before noon. This is months of pent-up demand being filled in a day.

 

[Pistolero]

How many do we think Sony will sell in Europe next week? Another million? That'd be pretty much the 2:1 we'd heard. I wouldn't bet against 3:1 all told.

As many units as they've decided to allocate to the region, obviously...
I'm tempted to say 750 thousands of them...

 

[Pain]

Yes I know. I just find it funny that people somehow don't realize that the Xbox One hasn't been out for more than a day in North America.

"This must mean that the Xbox One had half the number of PS4 day one sales in North America!"

It's just funny considering the fact that these stats use NA sales from earlier in the day. People saying "half the sales" without realizing that these stats could be based on 12 hours after NA Midnight launch.. you know.. half a day.

500k in 12 hours is 1 million in a day in terms of rate. Xbox One will probably have neck and neck one-day-NA sales vs. the PS4.

Don't do this to yourself. If that was true don't you think Microsoft would have waited a few more hours before releasing this statement?

Keep your expectations in check. There's both anecdotal and online retailer data that suggest that PS4 has more demand.

 

[Y2Kev]

So "one day" = 24 hours is now an excuse and not a fact? Haha, wow.

All I'm saying is you can't talk about day one NA Xbox One sales in conclusion since it hasn't been a full day yet in all areas of NA. It's not even midnight yet in the Eastern Time Zone.

But hey, let's continue on making day one NA Xbox One conclusions -- I'm pretty sure no one in the PST zone got a Xbox One after 5:30 PM. :|




But it has been a full "24 hour period after Xbox One launch" in other territories of the world. It hasn't been a full "24 hour period after Xbox One launch" in ANY part of North America.

So what you said really doesn't make sense.

Do you really believe Microsoft would put out a press release saying they sold 1 million units if they could wait 6 hours, not put it out on a Friday night EST, and say they sold 1 million in NA + 500K elsewhere? This is highly unlikely and I don't understand why you keep saying this. It doesn't make sense. Even Albert has said it doesn't make sense to compare apples to apples and it is certainly in his interest to have you trying to look for some apples.

 

[Chobel]

Yes I know. I just find it funny that people somehow don't realize that the Xbox One hasn't been out for more than a day in North America.

"This must mean that the Xbox One had half the number of PS4 day one sales in North America!"

It's just funny considering the fact that these stats use NA sales from earlier in the day. People saying "half the sales" without realizing that these stats could be based on 12 hours after NA Midnight launch.. you know.. half a day.

500k in 12 hours is 1 million in a day in terms of rate. Xbox One will probably have neck and neck one-day-NA sales vs. the PS4.

It doesn't work like that. While I agree with you that there will be more unit sold in NA in the next hours,but just because X unit is sold in 12 hours doesn't mean in 24 hours it will be 2X. for all we know it, the stores sold 90% of their Xbox One supply in that 12 hours.

 

[mechphree]

Heh, again, you say "they aren't" when yet there are no NA Xbox One stats that were made 24 hours after launch -- since, you know, it hasn't been 24 hours yet.

If xbox was going to outsell ps4 in America they would have let it be known. The only statement we have gotten was a million sold in 13 countries.

 

[FairXchange]

But it has been a full "24 hour period after Xbox One launch" in other territories of the world. It hasn't been a full "24 hour period after Xbox One launch" in ANY part of North America.

So what you said really doesn't make sense.

We'll make a friendly bet then, I have no shame if I'm wrong, and I'm assuming vice versa.

We won't be hearing anything else out of MS about sales for the next week, no final numbers in regard to NA sales. We'll simply get the 1 million WW number that we got this evening.

What's your take?

 

[boredandlazy]

did you actually look or did you just assume that was true

Well, he's still technically correct. There's 10,000.

 

[Anticitizen One]

Yeah still available in the OC at many stores as of right now. Ms did a good job of stocking the stores.

Not much if any profit to be made on the local Craig's list.

In Orange County, CA? Wow I figured xbox one would sell out there due to the huge population and large concentration of gamers in that region.

 

[Biker19]

The proof is if MS did it, obviously Sony was too.../s

Which is just flat out ridiculous & silly. Sony's a Japanese company, & most Japanese companies has different policies, traditions, etc. & does things far different from American companies like Microsoft. They don't exactly have to follow Microsoft's lead on anything; they're not a follower.

I guess. I'm also guessing that Sony has some stock for Black Friday for NA. Sony should not miss this chance.

I'm thinking that that they'll get them in to retailers in time for them to stock more PS4's on Thanksgiving in an anticipation for BF. Just my guess.

 

[MThanded]

So "one day" = 24 hours is now an excuse and not a fact? Haha, wow.

All I'm saying is you can't talk about day one NA Xbox One sales in conclusion since it hasn't been a full day yet in all areas of NA. It's not even midnight yet in the Eastern Time Zone.

But hey, let's continue on making day one NA Xbox One conclusions -- I'm pretty sure no one in the PST zone got a Xbox One after 5:30 PM. :|

Hilarious.



But it has been a full 24-hour period after Xbox One launch in other territories of the world. It hasn't been a full 24-hour period after Xbox One launch"in ANY part of North America.

So what you said really doesn't make sense.

Explain this amazing strategy where they downsell their day one sales?

 

[rokkerkory]

I wonder if MS will give an NA number after 24 hours of being available (around 3 more hours to go, or 21 hours duration so far).

 

[Randolph Freelander]

So "one day" = 24 hours is now an excuse and not a fact? Haha, wow.

All I'm saying is you can't talk about day one NA Xbox One sales in conclusion since it hasn't been a full day yet in all areas of NA. It's not even midnight yet in the Eastern Time Zone.

But hey, let's continue on making day one NA Xbox One conclusions -- I'm pretty sure no one in the PST zone got a Xbox One after 5:30 PM. :|

Hilarious.



But it has been a full 24-hour period after Xbox One launch in other territories of the world. It hasn't been a full 24-hour period after Xbox One launch"in ANY part of North America.

So what you said really doesn't make sense.

Dude, they know their day one sales in North America. They knew them three weeks ago.

 

[spatenfloot]

Ahhh. It's the Xbones first "Wait for x" post.

I remember when there was only set of footprints, Xbone. /single tear

Did someone make a chalkboard yet?

 

[tazz3]

One person is selling just the empty day one box for 100 staring bid and 400 to buy it lol

 

[Bgamer90]

That is some seriously ridiculous math right there. At that rate, the Xbox One will also have 6 million sold in 3 days...right? And the PS4 is now at 8 million, because it was moving a million a day, too.

No, my statement was to solely show that we don't know what the full day one North American Xbox One sales are since it hasn't been a full 24 hours after the Xbox One midnight launch in ANY part of North America.

It's hilarious how simple/basic facts get responded to with console war rage.

 

[TheTwelve]

How many do we think Sony will sell in Europe next week? Another million? That'd be pretty much the 2:1 we'd heard. I wouldn't bet against 3:1 all told.

1.3-1.5 million

 

[KoopaTheCasual]

So "one day" = 24 hours is now an excuse and not a fact? Haha, wow.

All I'm saying is you can't talk about day one NA Xbox One sales in conclusion since it hasn't been a full day yet in all areas of NA. It's not even midnight yet in the Eastern Time Zone.

But hey, let's continue on making day one NA Xbox One conclusions -- I'm pretty sure no one in the PST zone got a Xbox One after 5:30 PM. :|

Hilarious.



But it has been a full 24-hour period after Xbox One launch in other territories of the world. It hasn't been a full 24-hour period after Xbox One launch"in ANY part of North America.

So what you said really doesn't make sense.

...You know what, guy? You're super right. In fact, you're so right, I'm gonna wait until December 12th when November NPD is released just to confirm how right you are! Let's see how neck-and-neck this is!

 

[SyenceLabb]

Explain this amazing strategy where they downsell their day one sales?

Maybe they will double dip and this isn't their only announcement.

 

[Bgamer90]

Dude, they know their day one sales in North America. They knew them three weeks ago.

So each and every Xbox One that doesn't get shipped in NA after today will all be sold before 12 AM?

 

[Y2Kev]

No, my statement was to solely show that we don't know what the full day one North American Xbox One sales are since it hasn't been a full 24 hours after the Xbox One midnight launch in ANY part of North America.

It's hilarious how simple/basic facts get responded to with console war rage.

But Microsoft probably does have a pretty good estimate. They know how many they shipped into the channel and they know on a percentage basis roughly how many are selling.

Maybe they will double dip and this isn't their only announcement.

Yep, this is definitely possible, and if I'm wrong, I'm wrong!

 

[Chobel]

No, my statement was to solely show that we don't know what the full day one North American Xbox One sales are since it hasn't been a full 24 hours after the Xbox One midnight launch in ANY part of North America.

It's hilarious how simple/basic facts get responded to with console war rage.

What you said is not simple/basic facts. It's just speculation from your part.

 

[Y2Kev]

What you said is not simple/basic facts. It's just speculation from your part.

I get what he's saying. The day hasn't ended yet, so by definition you can't know how many you sold over the course of one day. And that's true, by definition, but they know. I don't know how else to say it. lol.

 

[FairXchange]

No, my statement was to solely show that we don't know what the full day one North American Xbox One sales are since it hasn't been a full 24 hours after the Xbox One midnight launch in ANY part of North America.

It's hilarious how simple/basic facts get responded to with console war rage.

MS was confident that they knew their NA sales, when they decided to announce how many they sold WW.

Dude, c'mon. It's not a hard concept to grasp. If we're talking exact numbers, MS clearly doesn't care about that because they announced what they sold before the 24 hours were through.

From their announcement,

Following a worldwide celebration, Xbox One launched in 13 markets yesterday to great fanfare.

Where does it say "stay tuned for our final NA numbers". This is what they sold in NA and in the rest of the world. 1 million. Nothing else gets added to this figure with respect to Day 1 launch sales. Period.

 

[Bgamer90]

What you said is not simple/basic facts. It's just speculation from your part.

How is saying that you can't make full conclusions about day one NA sales since it hasn't been a full 24 hour period after launch "speculation"?

Facts about time are now speculation?

 

[Mrbob]

Maybe BGamer is going to unearth a mythical supply of XB1s tonight and MS will sell 500K more in the next hour.

 

[Jomjom]

How many do we think Sony will sell in Europe next week? Another million? That'd be pretty much the 2:1 we'd heard. I wouldn't bet against 3:1 all told.

3:1 doesn't seem to be out of the realm of possibility.

Worldwide that is.

 

[Wickerbasket]

I get what he's saying. The day hasn't ended yet, so by definition you can't know how many you sold over the course of one day. And that's true, by definition, but they know. I don't know how else to say it. lol.

On the other hand, it's also pretty ridiculous to say that because they sold 500k units in 12 hours in the US that they'll sell 1 million in 24 hours.

The NPD numbers are really going to be the next interesting talking point.

 

[SyenceLabb]

How is saying that you can't make full conclusions about day one NA sales since it hasn't been a full 24 hour period after launch "speculation"?

Facts about time are now speculation?

Time is relative. Ask Albert Einstein.