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April 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes May 12th

M

Mrbob

Member
SwiftDeath said:
I'm curious if before we get to E3 the PS4 will be half a million units ahead of the XB1 in the US

Difference is 381k between them at present so if PS4 outsells XB1 by 60k on average for both April and May it would come to pass

Honestly MS's unwillingness to continue the unofficial pricedrop to $450 until E3 boggles my mind :
Click to expand...
Interestingly the 450 price point seems to be over at most places. Back to 499. Supports the theory of MS temporarily dropping price so they sell more units to hit their 5 million shipped projection.
 
I

Into

Member
[360] 86K
[3DS] 120K
[PS3] 52K
[PS4] 275K
[WIU] 65K
[XB1] 200K

If the XB1 goes beneath 200k, then i think some panic will set in, but it will be offset by the fact that E3 is coming and almost everyone is expecting MS to react with a official price cut.
 
T

Ty4on

Member
Into said:
If the XB1 goes beneath 200k, then i think some panic will set in, but it will be offset by the fact that E3 is coming and almost everyone is expecting MS to react with a official price cut.
Click to expand...
Of course it will. Adjusting down to 4 weeks it sold just 250K in March.
 
F

frizby

Member
beast786 said:
I expect xb1 to win April after great word of mouth and marketing
Click to expand...

Don't forget all of the exclusive games!

[PS4] 230K
[XB1] 130K

April feels like a soft month with no huge games on either box and not much in the way of XB1 deals.

I do expect MLB to shift a few extra PS4s in the May NPD though, and an official price drop after E3 will be the first real sign of life for the XB1.
 
T

Ty4on

Member
foamdino said:
First time in predictions thread:

[360] 110K
[3DS] 169K
[PS3] 92K
[PS4] 289K
[WIU] 57K
[XB1] 157K
Click to expand...
Just in case you didn't know it March was five weeks while this month is four :)

They count weeks that line up and not specifically months so April will be from 6. of April to 3. of May.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Not that it's too relevant but for reference

On Amazon's Monthly Best Sellers
Code: 
[URL="http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-01/videogames/?tag=viglink129408-20#1"]January[/URL]:  PS4 -> 3 | STD XB1 -> 16
[URL="http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-02/videogames/?tag=viglink129408-20#1"]February[/URL]: PS4 -> 3 | STD XB1 -> 23
[URL="http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-03/videogames/?tag=viglink129408-20#1"]March[/URL]:    PS4 -> 1 |  TF XB1 -> 11 | STD XB1 -> 76
[URL="http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-04/videogames/?tag=viglink129408-20#1"]April[/URL]:    PS4 -> 5 |  TF XB1 -> 24 | STD XB1 -> Not Charted


And for further comparison, NPD Results for the months in question
Code: 
January:  PS4 -> 271k | XB1 -> 141k
February: PS4 -> 268k | XB1 -> 258k
March:    PS4 -> 371k | XB1 -> 311k
 
BeforeU

BeforeU

Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
SwiftDeath said:
Not that it's too relevant but for reference

On Amazon's Monthly Best Sellers
Code: 
[URL="http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-01/videogames/?tag=viglink129408-20#1"]January[/URL]:  PS4 -> 3 | STD XB1 -> 16
[URL="http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-02/videogames/?tag=viglink129408-20#1"]February[/URL]: PS4 -> 3 | STD XB1 -> 23
[URL="http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-03/videogames/?tag=viglink129408-20#1"]March[/URL]:    PS4 -> 1 |  TF XB1 -> 11 | STD XB1 -> 76
[URL="http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-04/videogames/?tag=viglink129408-20#1"]April[/URL]:    PS4 -> 5 |  TF XB1 -> 24 | STD XB1 -> Not Charted


And for further comparison, NPD Results for the months in question
Code: 
January:  PS4 -> 271k | XB1 -> 141k
February: PS4 -> 268k | XB1 -> 258k
March:    PS4 -> 371k | XB1 -> 311k
Click to expand...

Xbox One has been in deal for many months in different stores, newegg, bestbuy, Walmart just to name few. And not to mention Microsoft has SO many stores open in NA/Canada compare to Sony. And they are also doing special deals on Xbox One bundle. So my question would be, why on earth would anyone bother buying Xbox One from Amazon and wait for shipping, when they are widely available right now everywhere for cheaper,
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
BeforeU said:
Xbox One has been in deal for many months in different stores, newegg, bestbuy, Walmart just to name few. And not to mention Microsoft has SO many stores open in NA/Canada compare to Sony. And they are also doing special deals on Xbox One bundle. So my question would be, why on earth would anyone bother buying Xbox One from Amazon and wait for shipping, when they are widely available right now everywhere for cheaper,
Click to expand...

I would agree with you that the deals during late Feb. and late march especially would obfuscate much of the overall trend for the XB1's performance if one was to just look at Amazon placements. However this is April, not March, not February.

PS4 supply has stabilized if not completely become available in the US. Online stores will start to better reflect the natural demand and supply situation between PS4 and XB1 as in-store stock of PS4 is ever more prevelant. I.E. Why on earth would anyone bother buying PS4 from Amazon and wait for shipping, when they are widely available right now everywhere? There is a reason people shop online in the first place and would you mind detailing all the deals in April for XB1? As it's been back up to $499 for most of the month everywhere from what I've seen

Also I seriously doubt MS stores versus Sony stores is a path of any relevance for overall sales discussions in the US. MS ain't Apple
 
A

Abdiel

Member
BeforeU said:
Xbox One has been in deal for many months in different stores, newegg, bestbuy, Walmart just to name few. And not to mention Microsoft has SO many stores open in NA/Canada compare to Sony. And they are also doing special deals on Xbox One bundle. So my question would be, why on earth would anyone bother buying Xbox One from Amazon and wait for shipping, when they are widely available right now everywhere for cheaper,
Click to expand...

Most of those deals expired ages ago. Best Buy hasn't had the 50 dollar sale for weeks, and it's definitely shown in the sales dropping off, at least in our stores. I can't speculate for other retail locations, but the 'special deals' haven't really been the rule like they were in March. March was all about pushing TF at the sale price across all major retailers. Why *not* order from Amazon if you don't want to deal with going to a retail location, or if you simply don't have time, etc.? There's all kinds of reasons why people buy their electronics online, especially if your state hasn't forced amazon to start collecting sales tax. NH has no sales tax anyway, so we get a ton of business from people driving across the state border from MA, ME, and VT.
 
T

toddhunter

Member
BeforeU said:
Xbox One has been in deal for many months in different stores, newegg, bestbuy, Walmart just to name few. And not to mention Microsoft has SO many stores open in NA/Canada compare to Sony. And they are also doing special deals on Xbox One bundle. So my question would be, why on earth would anyone bother buying Xbox One from Amazon and wait for shipping, when they are widely available right now everywhere for cheaper,
Click to expand...

For people outside the US, Amazon can represent a huge saving. This is true even after shipping (PS4 is about $100 cheaper shipped to Australia!).

So assuming this all counts into npd, the world wide touch of Amazon might not be insignificant.
 
BeforeU

BeforeU

Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
SwiftDeath said:
I would agree with you that the deals during late Feb. and late march especially would obfuscate much of the overall trend for the XB1's performance if one was to just look at Amazon placements. However this is April, not March, not February.

PS4 supply has stabilized if not completely become available in the US. Online stores will start to better reflect the natural demand and supply situation between PS4 and XB1 as in-store stock of PS4 is ever more prevelant. I.E. Why on earth would anyone bother buying PS4 from Amazon and wait for shipping, when they are widely available right now everywhere? There is a reason people shop online in the first place and would you mind detailing all the deals in April for XB1? As it's been back up to $499 for most of the month everywhere from what I've seen

Also I seriously doubt MS stores versus Sony stores is a path of any relevance for overall sales discussions in the US. MS ain't Apple
Click to expand...


Abdiel said:
Most of those deals expired ages ago. Best Buy hasn't had the 50 dollar sale for weeks, and it's definitely shown in the sales dropping off, at least in our stores. I can't speculate for other retail locations, but the 'special deals' haven't really been the rule like they were in March. March was all about pushing TF at the sale price across all major retailers. Why *not* order from Amazon if you don't want to deal with going to a retail location, or if you simply don't have time, etc.? There's all kinds of reasons why people buy their electronics online, especially if your state hasn't forced amazon to start collecting sales tax. NH has no sales tax anyway, so we get a ton of business from people driving across the state border from MA, ME, and VT.
Click to expand...

hmm my bad, I thought the Titanfall 499 bundle with 50$ coupon were still available across different stores.

@bold I do believe Microsoft stores has been selling way more Xbox Ones than we might think. I sometimes read Major Nelson's tweet about new store opening, and he pretty much goes to all of them, obviously to promote Xbox One.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
BeforeU said:
@bold I do believe Microsoft stores has been selling way more Xbox Ones than we might think. I sometimes read Major Nelson's tweet about new store opening, and he pretty much goes to all of them, obviously to promote Xbox One.
Click to expand...

I certainly agree [or concede?] that MS is selling more XB1's at MS stores than Sony is selling PS4's at Sony stores [Mostly because lol Sony stores]

I'm just not convinced the numbers are overly significant to the whole

MS is at 58 stores in the whole of the US

Sony is now at 11 stores [lol]

For comparison, Best Buy has 1,055 stores in the US and Gamestop has something like 4000 stores in the US

So less than 60 MS stores are a drop in the bucket comparatively
---------------------

Also

Countdown until changes to your predictions are no longer allowed

t1399939200z1.png


Countdown until NPD PR starts coming out

t1400193000z1.png
 
L

Lilalaunebaer

Member
First prediction time.

[PS4] 275K
[XB1] 142k
[3DS] 103k
[360] 80k
[PS3] 65k
[WIIU] 60k

(Mario Kart has to make an impact right guys?
probably not lol sadface)

Edit: Forget Mario Kart, not even released lol.
 
C

Chocolate & Vanilla

Fuck Strawberry
[PS4] 285k
[XB1] 180k
[3DS] 105k
[360] 95k
[PS3] 60k
[WIU] 50k



PS4 to dominate this month I reckon. Seem to still be shipping at full capacity.

Xbone back to full price will cause a significant drop in sales.
 
D

Dire

Member
[PS4] 247K
[XB1] 133K

PS4 is actually looking a lot stronger than I expected. In March I was expecting a 100k-200k April for both consoles.
 
I

Into

Member
There is something psychological about going beneath 200k for the Xbox One that i think will trigger some panic

But i do expect a ton of "Just wait for E3/Halo 2 Remake/Gears" which is a go-to-tactic when trying to deal with unsatisfactory sales numbers.
 
A

Abdiel

Member
jayu26 said:
Finally a brave soul sees things for what they are.
Click to expand...

Heh. No, to both his points, and to your statement. All signs show a solid drop for XB1. There's a potential for a WOW drop for PS4, as well, though not as significant, if anything.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Abdiel said:
Heh. No, to both his points, and to your statement. All signs show a solid drop for XB1. There's a potential for a WOW drop for PS4, as well, though not as significant, if anything.
Click to expand...

Your retail impressions or just guesses?
 
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