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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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Incognito said:
ive heard reports that bernie's team has had to push back the start times on their nevada block walks numerous times because no one under 25 shows up before 1130am. theyre starting as late as 4, 5, 6 pm and hitting only a few # of voters while simultaneously upsetting families for ruining dinner time. i think the implications for saturday are obvious.
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Revolution will have to wait...for the berniebros to get out of bed, warm up last night's shroom pizza for breakfast and grab a mountain dew on their way to the caucus location.
 
Wasserman this morning is beating the "Cruz is doomed" drum pretty hard. In addition to Cruz's calendar problem, which has been getting a lot of attention, the delegate rules are extremely unfavorable to him and he's not going to be able run up the margins in his best states.

Oddly, he concludes that this makes a contested convention more likely, whereas my take away is that it makes a Trump majority more likely. Cruz is already in enough trouble from the margins Trump is currently threatening him with, and his need to win big in the next two weeks. I guess it depends on Cruz's ability to cut into Trump's lead right now.

Lisa Murkowski seems to be back-pedaling on her back-pedaling re: SCOTUS. Basically showing her hand as a strong fillibuster.

I think Dems can easily get 50 votes. 60 is more challenging. GOP needs to worry about bleeding nationally for that to happen. I still think that once they start holding hearings and Obama puts forth a super obvious candidate, they'll have a really hard time being obstinate.

edit: Feeling ballsy re: Nevada. Clinton by 4.
 
Gruco said:
Wasserman this morning is beating the "Cruz is doomed" drum pretty hard. In addition to Cruz's calendar problem, which has been getting a lot of attention, the delegate rules are extremely unfavorable to him and he's not going to be able run up the margins in his best states.

Oddly, he concludes that this makes a contested convention more likely, whereas my take away is that it makes a Trump majority more likely. Cruz is already in enough trouble from the margins Trump is currently threatening him with, and his need to win big in the next two weeks. I guess it depends on Cruz's ability to cut into Trump's lead right now.

Lisa Murkowski seems to be back-pedaling on her back-pedaling re: SCOTUS. Basically showing her hand as a strong fillibuster.

I think Dems can easily get 50 votes. 60 is more challenging. GOP needs to worry about bleeding nationally for that to happen. I still think that once they start holding hearings and Obama puts forth a super obvious candidate, they'll have a really hard time being obstinate.

edit: Feeling ballsy re: Nevada. Clinton by 4.
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His best state is going to be TX. He and Trump will be splitting SEC.
 
NeoXChaos said:
His best state is going to be TX. He and Trump will be splitting SEC.
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Despite the larger delegate count, I don't think Texas will be enough to make up big margins in the other states. Trump is probably leading in delegates after super tuesday. Even if they roughly split, or Cruz has a small lead, that's a terrible outcome for him, basically enough to shut off any path to winning.
 
Y2Kev said:
Depress? Define depress. Timing, like weather, can have real effects on turnout. That's not nonsense.
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I'm not denying that weather and time can absolutely reduce turn of certain demographics, but 11AM is not quite the same as a few feet of snow in Iowa. Remember pre Iowa how there were reports that the timing of the caucus would keep the youth turnout low because they were at college and not back at home? Bernie's campaign has been very adept at getting their voters turned out thus far and I just have a hard time seeing a midday start time reducing his voter turnout.

*Please let me eat crow on this post tomorrow*
 
Ed: f me lol, end of page.

I feel like have to put a disclaimer before my posts so people understand I'm not trying to argue against having universal care even though I already said that.

neurosisxeno said:
It doesn't matter that much. That argument is an industry standard for just about everything--we can't have fast internet because the country is too big, we can't have good health care because the country is too big, we can't have better schools because the country is too big. It's a bullshit argument that makes no sense. The reality with Health Care is that we have too many unhealthy people. We have an absurd obesity rate, and the unhealthy people drive up the cost substantially.
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I'm not saying geography therefore no health care refom, I'm saying that converting to a universal health care system is going to come with certain costs that we should be honest and forthcoming about. Many things will be better but some things will be worse. Having that conversation is important rather than papering it over.

But as to size being an issue, yes some people use it as a general purpose cudgel, but that doesn't detract from the substantive point. Google can afford to build gigabit internet in Kansas City. But they ain't building gigabit Internet in all of Kansas or Missouri. Physical scale like that doesn't mean you can't have nice schools, it just means you can't have the same quality school in every county.

Las7 said:
The scale of geography is certainly nothing to sneeze at but maybe, just maybe we can look up and see how those commies up north did it
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This is actually the exact point I brought up in my first post but now being sarcastically used against me. I absolutely agree that Canada is the country we should look to for comparison and when we do we see that rationing / waiting occurs. Canadians will tell you that's a trade off they're willing to accept, and that's all I'm arguing for. Let's accept the trade off instead of pretending it doesn't exist.

[Missing Quote (on mobile)]

There's a difference between factories and schools/hospitals. People based industries do not benefit as much from economies of scale (not saying they don't benefit), although in this context it's more about the reach of those benefits. The costs of obtaining those benefits means that you have to cluster. That's not a problem when you're a big factory, it doesn't matter much where your factory is. But if you're a huge high tech hospital, you have to be where the demand is because your reach is limited, so you're in a city.

Now that's all well and good when you're a small and densely populated country like Denmark and the reach of your major cities covers most of the area. But in America there's a lot of empty space, a lot. The reach of our cities doesn't cover the spread of our population and some states don't have large cities at all. And our poor public transit infrastructure doesn't extend the reach as effectively as in Europe (partly a size problem again). Our urban population will get higher quality care because that's where higher quality care can afford to exist, but the extended rural population is not as lucky.
 
EskimoJoe said:
Does anyone think the Senate will filibuster Obama's nominee for replacing Harper Lee?
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Of course. You can count on it. Too bad the recent filibuster rules don't apply to supreme court nominees.

The real question is will it be a record breaker? I've been waiting for someone to break Thurmond's legendary record for decades. Are they even allowed to go on for that long now?

EDIT:

I just now realized that you said Harper Lee's replacement, lol. You must've been watched that news as it broke when you made that post.
 
My facebook feed is such a shit show

I'm kind of amazed how many of these lefty leftist websites are jumping all over the fox news poll where Bernie is up

BERNIE IS THE NEW FRONTRUNNER, HILLARY IS DOOMED
 
Okay short version, I support universal health care reform, I just think we should knowingly accept the trade offs like the Canadian people/system.

Rural areas don't benefit much from health care or educational economies of scale because they don't have enough demand to support the scale/infrastructure required.
 
Already sold out to the 1%.

Cbl7jt2UYAAtP0C.jpg
 
Interesting, the emails revealed from HIlary's server this week serve to prove Adam's point about her LGBT rights records as Sectrary of State really well. Turns out she was pushing the Obama administration into tackling the anti-gay laws being implemented in Africa, and also her excitement about World Pride 2012 where she was being honoured.

Sanders has a good record on gay rights, and is definitely an ally. But Clinton definitely seems to go further and be more active in her work and advocacy.
 
Maledict said:
Interesting, the emails revealed from HIlary's server this week serve to prove Adam's point about her LGBT rights records as Sectrary of State really well. Turns out she was pushing the Obama administration into tackling the anti-gay laws being implemented in Africa, and also her excitement about World Pride 2012 where she was being honoured.

Sanders has a good record on gay rights, and is definitely an ally. But Clinton definitely seems to go further and be more active in her work and advocacy.
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I'm sure if we combed over Bernie's emails and communiqués, we'd find similar examples of strong advocacy for LGBT rights.

I consider them both good advocates for LGBT rights and don't see the need to downgrade one to 'ally' status in order to promote the other.
 
I'm playing D&D for the first time tomorrow and I'm going to miss out on the Nevada results. Part of me is bummed that I'll miss it, and part of me is really happy that I can just pretend it isn't happening. Rooting for a Hillary win, but Iowa stressed me out too much for me to sit through results for another close state.
 
That judge that forced Hillary's emails to all come out this month is a serious Hillarystan. No more drip drip.
 
On Super Tuesday, March 1, 25 percent of the delegates to the Republican national convention will be awarded. If the mainstream field hasn’t been narrowed by that point, it will become very hard to avoid serious damage to the candidate who ultimately emerges as the party’s anointed favorite. The top mainstream candidate could easily fall more than 100 delegates short of what he might have earned in a winnowed field. He would even be in danger of earning no delegates at all in several of the largest states because of one number: 20 percent.

That’s the threshold for earning delegates in Texas, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama and Vermont, which combine to award 57 percent of the delegates on Super Tuesday and 14 percent of all of the delegates in the Republican race. If candidates don’t get 20 percent of the vote, they get no delegates (unless they finish in the top two of a congressional district, in which case they get a delegate). Oklahoma and Arkansas, worth an additional 13 percent of Super Tuesday delegates, have a 15 percent threshold.



The difference between falling short of the threshold in these seven states and clearing it, even if only barely, is approximately 70 delegates. It’s not enough to preclude a candidate like Mr. Rubio from winning the nomination. But it would require him to fare very well from that point on to finish with a majority of delegates; he might need as much as 70 percent of the outstanding delegates to win, a plausible figure given the party’s delegate rules but nonetheless a daunting one.
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Rubio needs to crack 20% within the next two weeks or he's even more fucked.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/18/u...es-brutal-delegate-math.html?rref=upshot&_r=0
 
CCS said:
Going to be tricky assuming Cruz stays in, especially if Trump goes in on him.
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I just want to see Trump start destroying Rubitron. I have the feeling he is going to ovetperform SC and we will all be back to Diablosing like we were after IA.
 
RIP disastermouse

Gonna have to go with the Y2kev/shinra ticket, IMO.

RNC is going to put major pressure on everyone to drop out if Rubio gets 2nd in SC, or even 3rd and is close to Cruz. RNC's first plan is to turn it into Rubio vs Trump (where Rubio wins I think), or, Rubio vs Cruz vs Trump, where Trump can't get enough delegates to secure the nomination by convention time, at which point all the delegates re-open back up, and the RNC brokers a convention with a Rubio / Haley ticket.

As for Dem side - it's just a matter of time until HRC puts Sanders away, it's more of "how many resources does HRC end up burning on Sanders" as well as "Does HRC make a horrific mistake somewhere in the primary that ends up costing her in the general".
 
It came after Secretary Clinton’s landmark speech to the UN in Geneva in July 2012, when she urged world leaders to be “on the right side of history” on LGBT rights.

Diplomat Ken Kero-Mentz had emailed Secretary Clinton’s office to ask what she would like done with the tribute artwork, which was in the US Embassy, featuring “the words of her speech sewn in to the flag”.
An email chain shows a picture of the artwork was then shared with Clinton and the staffers who contributed to the speech.

Clinton speechwriter Megan Rooney replied: “This is kind of neat”, while foreign policy adviser Jacob Sullivan responded: “Very cool.”
Hillary Clinton herself responded to the chain among her staff, suggesting they all go and see the artwork on her next trip to London.
She wrote: “If I go back to London I could do photo. Then we have to decide what to do w it.”

Huma Abedin, the chair of Clinton’s Presidential campaign, responded: “pretty amazing. we should frame it and hang it somewhere!”
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Lesbian lovers confirmed.
 
RastaMentality said:
Lesbian lovers confirmed.
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You just know that was their weekend project.

As to Bernie on LGBT issues, fine. I'm sure he's fine. We have tangible proof that Hillary, in my opinion, understands my community better than he does. There are issues on which Bernie is a better advocate than Hillary is. LGBT issues, though, is just not one of them.

And that's okay! Bernie's running for President, not Liberal Messiah. He doesn't have to be infallible. If we need a perfect candidate, we already have Trump for that.
 
Cybit said:
RIP disastermouse

Gonna have to go with the Y2kev/shinra ticket, IMO.

RNC is going to put major pressure on everyone to drop out if Rubio gets 2nd in SC, or even 3rd and is close to Cruz. RNC's first plan is to turn it into Rubio vs Trump (where Rubio wins I think), or, Rubio vs Cruz vs Trump, where Trump can't get enough delegates to secure the nomination by convention time, at which point all the delegates re-open back up, and the RNC brokers a convention with a Rubio / Haley ticket.
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Trump's going to make a yuge deal at the convention if it comes to that.

I don't see anyone dropping out yet unless Bush gets destroyed in SC (and he may stay in to attack Trump since it's personal now even if that happens). Kasich is acting like he'll stay in until Ohio. Carson is selling books. Cruz doesn't care what the RNC thinks at all.

Cybit said:
As for Dem side - it's just a matter of time until HRC puts Sanders away, it's more of "how many resources does HRC end up burning on Sanders" as well as "Does HRC make a horrific mistake somewhere in the primary that ends up costing her in the general".
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Not enough data yet to say that. All the money and organizing going on will help the Dem candidate in November, just as it did Obama in 2008.
 
Cybit said:
RNC is going to put major pressure on everyone to drop out if Rubio gets 2nd in SC, or even 3rd and is close to Cruz. RNC's first plan is to turn it into Rubio vs Trump (where Rubio wins I think), or, Rubio vs Cruz vs Trump, where Trump can't get enough delegates to secure the nomination by convention time, at which point all the delegates re-open back up, and the RNC brokers a convention with a Rubio / Haley ticket.
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Hello, third-party run!
 
Anyone see those IPSOS/Reuters GE matchup numbers.

Hillary 46
Cruz 29

Hahahahaa. Maybe I should want Calgary Cruz instead of Two Corinthians Trump.

God, that's being caught between a rock and a god damn trash compactor.
 
QuiteWhittle said:
Then the media will crown Rubio as the real winner and "comback kid" even if he gets a distant third. The media isn't ever going to let Cruz have a pure win.
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Yes. If Rubio even gets within 10 % of the number 2 (Cruz och Trump) the headlines will be something like that.

Politico: "Rubio strikes back", Vox: "Strong finish for Rubio in South Carolina", "Why Rubios chances of getting the nomination just got stronger", "Why some experts are betting their money on Rubio"
 
Rubio roars back!

How Rubio is still in the game!

Rubio proves he's resilient and ready to win!

Insiders: Rubio was the real winner in South Carolina

Politico, you're welcome.
 
thefro said:
Trump's going to make a yuge deal at the convention if it comes to that.

I don't see anyone dropping out yet unless Bush gets destroyed in SC (and he may stay in to attack Trump since it's personal now even if that happens). Kasich is acting like he'll stay in until Ohio. Carson is selling books. Cruz doesn't care what the RNC thinks at all.

Not enough data yet to say that. All the money and organizing going on will help the Dem candidate in November, just as it did Obama in 2008.
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I think the RNC might be able to pay Trump off, to be honest. If there isn't a mass dropping out after Super Tuesday, I think the RNC's goal then becomes to stop Trump from winning the nomination outright, and then broker a deal.

Sorry for poor wording - on the second one, I meant to say that as a hypothetical. Basically, those are the only big things I see that could happen out of the Dem race - not that they have / will.

Plinko said:
Hello, third-party run!
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I bet Trump gets them to write a giant check to get him not to run. That would be the most glorious way to end his candidacy. He gets the RNC to write him like a 400 million dollar check or something.
 
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