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[Deleted member 231381]

The difference is pretty significant, I think. 26% of American nonvoters support Democrats compared to 15% supporting the Republicans. That is a sizable difference!

http://nonvotersinamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Summary-Report-12-13-12.pdf

That's not that much of a bias, though. If you look at Gallup's party affiliation tracker, about 25% of voters identify as Republican, 35% Democrat, at any given time. Given that far more non-voters do no support any party or support a third party, those figures are not especially different - it's equivalent to 22.5% identifying as Republican compared to 37.5% identifying as Democrat if they had the same do not support/third party figures; the bias is about 2.5%.

Note that I'm not saying that non-voters are dead balanced between left and right. I'm saying that the voting composition of non-voters is almost the same as that of voters w.r.t. the main parties. As you can see above, this is broadly true of America too.

 

[pigeon]

On the topic of blaming Corbyn for the referendum result--how realistic is it that another leader could have convinced more than 2/3rds of the Labour electorate to vote to remain, given that they've drifted towards UKIP?

I mean, they didn't "drift towards UKIP" like a tectonic plate. If two-thirds of the Labour electorate is being drawn to another party, that's a pretty severe indictment of the party leader, right?

It is a little terrifying how people talk about Labour as if it's recently deceased. I mean, if the future for Labour is to slide into third-party irrelevance and become the Lib Dems because they have no policy goals and their base is lost to racism, Corbyn is the perfect leader for that role. But then they'd really better get on with it, right? So that somebody else can be Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition.

 

[mrklaw]

On the topic of blaming Corbyn for the referendum result--how realistic is it that another leader could have convinced more than 2/3rds of the Labour electorate to vote to remain, given that they've drifted towards UKIP?

Maybe could have encouraged a larger turnout from young voters, who would have been heavily remain?

 

[nelsonroyale]

Interesting tweet from a Tory, must admit I admire his sentiment entirely. This country desperately needs a potent opposition, no a circus run by clowns.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RichardBenyonMP/status/752941098205605889

I am not sure which planet you or this Benyon person live on, but in this one, the Tory party has been, and continues to be utterly shambolic. They split over the remain vote and the rulling element loss the toss of the dice. All the top leadership candidates, aside from May, either fell on their swords or got stabbed in the back. They have no credible stance on Brexit. The incumbent (unelected) PM gave a very tepid endorsement of remain, and is likely to be quite a hostile negotiator in Europe. They would be and should be a laughing stock, if the game wasn't so cynical and tragic. The Tories had a crisis of positioning but are usually united around shared greed and privilidge. Labour are having a genuine crisis of identity. The roots are far deeper than some of the shallow analysis that often seems to do the rounds. It is quite hilarious to see how they juggle the social conscience...The tories don't bother with that.

MrKlaw: You got any basis for saying that was likely? It seems Corbyn actually has more traction amongst younger voters than other possible candidates. I think people fail to see that there is genuine disaffection with the current state of affairs. Remain should have painted a far more progressive and reformist platform for remain instead of the mostly the doom and gloom.

Pigeon: I think your comment lack a degree of historical insight. It is easy to see that Labour's decline has been ongoing and the reasons why they lost the last election, after a generally atrocious Tory performance. The tories aren't good, they are pretty shit. They just have more coherence in their positions and objectives than Labour. Labour are genuinely divided. Tory divisions often emerge around jostling for power.

 

[ferrasvansen]

I am not sure which planet you or this Benyon person live on, but in this one, the Tory party has been, and continues to be utterly shambolic. They split over the remain vote and the rulling element loss the toss of the dice. All the top leadership candidates, aside from May, either fell on their swords or got stabbed in the back. They have no credible stance on Brexit. The incumbent (unelected) PM gave a very tepid endorsement of remain, and is likely to be quite a hostile negotiator in Europe. They would be and should be a laughing stock, if the game wasn't so cynical and tragic. The Tories had a crisis of positioning but are usually united around shared greed and privilidge. Labour are having a genuine crisis of identity. The roots are far deeper than some of the shallow analysis that often seems to do the rounds. It is quite hilarious to see how they juggle the social conscience...The tories don't bother with that.

MrKlaw: You got any basis for saying that was likely? It seems Corbyn actually has more traction amongst younger voters than other possible candidates.

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 38% (+1)
LAB: 30% (-)
UKIP: 15% (-)
LDEM: 8% (-)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via ICM / 08 - 10 Jul)
Chgs. from 01-03/07.

Planet real life... shambles and way ahead and likely to get a big boost. I'm sure over the coming weeks they will gel together and start to work toward Brexit. Can you imagine what they will do with no viable opposition to draw awareness to their plans. Sure let's just give them a free reign to do what they want.... sigh.

 

[nelsonroyale]

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 38% (+1)
LAB: 30% (-)
UKIP: 15% (-)
LDEM: 8% (-)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via ICM / 08 - 10 Jul)
Chgs. from 01-03/07.

Planet real life... shambles and way ahead and likely to get a big boost. I'm sure over the coming weeks they will gel together and start to work toward Brexit. Can you imagine what they will do with no viable opposition to draw awareness to their plans. Sure let's just give them a free reign to do what they want.... sigh.

How, in any way, does that contradict what I said? You are talking about public perception. I am talking about the play of events. The Tory's only look reasonable in light of how absolutely ridiculous Labour looks. Otherwise, the Tory's have looked pathetic. They only have looked a shade more competant in comparison. Of course, reflecting on the Brexit referendum, they don't look very competant at all, at least when it comes to the public interest.

Also, that is a representative poll. A valid indicator sure, but not real life as you put it.

 

[phisheep]

I am not sure which planet you or this Benyon person live on, but in this one, the Tory party has been, and continues to be utterly shambolic in power.

FTFY

 

[ferrasvansen]

How, in any way, does that contradict what I said? You are talking about public perception. I am talking about the play of events. The Tory's only look reasonable in light of how absolutely ridiculous Labour looks. Otherwise, the Tory's have looked pathetic. They only have looked a shade more competant in comparison. Of course, reflecting on the Brexit referendum, they don't look very competant at all, at least when it comes to the public interest.

Also, that is a representative poll. A valid indicator sure, but not real life as you put it.

The tories have been divided over Europe for 30 plus years, now the UK has voted to leave, they won't have that hanging over them, and now they can say we gave the public what they wanted, how much will that benefit them, a lot likely. Sure the leadership battle was a back stabbing orgy but that's nothing new, come tomorrow they will have a cabinet full of both leave and remain members and look pretty United to the country, and given the positive press and such they will benefit hugely in the publics eye, I hope I'm wrong but I doubt it.

 

[PJV3]

How, in any way, does that contradict what I said? You are talking about public perception. I am talking about the play of events. The Tory's only look reasonable in light of how absolutely ridiculous Labour looks. Otherwise, the Tory's have looked pathetic. They only have looked a shade more competant in comparison. Of course, reflecting on the Brexit referendum, they don't look very competant at all, at least when it comes to the public interest.

Also, that is a representative poll. A valid indicator sure, but not real life as you put it.

It's pretty frustrating.

The Tories have been useless really, Osborne could have been sacked a few times, the IDS situation was an open goal and then a convenient memo appears and puts Corbyn on the back foot.

They are very beatable, but it isn't going to happen under Corbyn or a wishy washy non entity. They have a better chance if the rebels form independent Labour and sideline Corbyn for a few years than what looks likely now.

 

[ferrasvansen]

It's pretty frustrating.

The Tories have been useless really, Osborne could have been sacked a few times, the IDS situation was an open goal and then a convenient memo appears and puts Corbyn on the back foot.

They are very beatable, but it isn't going to happen under Corbyn or a wishy washy non entity. They have a better chance if the rebels form independent Labour and sideline Corbyn for a few years than what looks likely now.

I don't think they will be as beatable now, I expect them to be much more organised, less divisive and head towards a massive majority in 2020 with Corbyn as their opponent. It's a nightmare scenario but growing more likely by the day.

 

[PJV3]

I don't think they will be as beatable now, I expect them to be much more organised, less divisive and head towards a massive majority in 2020 with Corbyn as their opponent. It's a nightmare scenario but growing more likely by the day.

We will see, May being a control freak and the wounds and pressure of Brexit make it an interesting time. Events could easily sink the government or its discipline. Corbyn has to go and a decent replacement found to make it happen though.

 

[mr-paul]

I'd like to see someone like Clive Lewis as leader, but he's only just joined the Commons in 2015 so probably a bit fresh to stand. That, and he's fully behind Corbyn. I think he's someone the average person would like, and the media wouldn't hate too much. (maybe?)

 

[Real Hero]

I'd like to see someone like Clive Lewis as leader, but he's only just joined the Commons in 2015 so probably a bit fresh to stand. That, and he's fully behind Corbyn. I think he's someone the average person would like, and the media wouldn't hate too much. (maybe?)

He would be labour leader of course the media would hate him

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I'd like to see someone like Clive Lewis as leader, but he's only just joined the Commons in 2015 so probably a bit fresh to stand. That, and he's fully behind Corbyn. I think he's someone the average person would like, and the media wouldn't hate too much. (maybe?)

Lewis is a reasonably good media performer, but he's probably too junior right now to mount a run.

 

[WhateverItTakes]

So... Owen Smith

Can anyone give me a run down on the guy? Does he have a chance of getting on the ballot? I feel like he'll just split the vote from Eagle and Lord Jezza will remain supreme.

 

[Sir_Crocodile]

So... Owen Smith

Can anyone give me a run down on the guy? Does he have a chance of getting on the ballot? I feel like he'll just split the vote from Eagle and Lord Jezza will remain supreme.

there will be no vote splitting, the party decides between two at the end.

 

[Ushojax]

So... Owen Smith

Can anyone give me a run down on the guy? Does he have a chance of getting on the ballot? I feel like he'll just split the vote from Eagle and Lord Jezza will remain supreme.

If push comes to shove and a clearly superior challenger emerges, the rest will drop out. Eagle fired the starting pistol but I doubt she will be on the final ballot.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

So... Owen Smith

Can anyone give me a run down on the guy? Does he have a chance of getting on the ballot? I feel like he'll just split the vote from Eagle and Lord Jezza will remain supreme.

The Labour Party uses AV. You can't split the vote. You can split "attention", insofar as Eagle and Smith will have to waste energy attacking each other and not just Corbyn, but not votes.

E.g. my vote last time was

1. Burnham
2. Corbyn
3. Cooper
(didn't put a fourth preference)

Smith is on the soft left of the party; he was an Ed Miliband protege. Eagle is uh... well, she was a Blairite in the real sense of the word, but she's steadily been trying to move to the centre of the party for some time.

Smith has better chance than Eagle, I think.

 

[WhateverItTakes]

Thanks guys. Does look like he'll have a better chance than Eagle. I wonder if she wanted to play this as a sacrificial lamb- she starts the revolt, takes most of the initial heat, then another can swoop in like a bargain store saviour. Then again this relies on a chunk Labour being capable of competent machinations.

 

[mr-paul]

He would be labour leader of course the media would hate him

Hence why I said too much!

I basically mean less than Corbyn!

 

[Bananajama]

UKIP noticed a large swathe of support in Labour heartlands.

I won't be surprised if a new leader recognises this and makes a shift to the left in order to attack Labour heartlands and become the 2nd main opposition party.

I'd rather a proper Labour party though

 

[PJV3]

UKIP noticed a large swathe of support in Labour heartlands.

I won't be surprised if a new leader recognises this and makes a shift to the left in order to attack Labour heartlands and become the 2nd main opposition party.

I'd rather a proper Labour party though

Socially conservative UKIP people returning to the Tories is exactly what Theresa May doesn't need. And I doubt a left leaning UKIP in a world where we've actually started leaving the EU has a strong future.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Socially conservative UKIP people returning to the Tories is exactly what Theresa May doesn't need. And I doubt a left leaning UKIP in a world where we've actually started leaving the EU has a strong future.

This would be a socially-conservative economically-left party, though. Labour's old industrial base are very socially conservative, as a rule of thumb.

 

[Bananajama]

Socially conservative UKIP people returning to the Tories is exactly what Theresa May doesn't need. And I doubt a left leaning UKIP in a world where we've actually started leaving the EU has a strong future.

Not sure what Conservatives have to do with what I put?

Just saying if they play cards right they could replace Labour

 

[twobear]

I mean, they didn't "drift towards UKIP" like a tectonic plate. If two-thirds of the Labour electorate is being drawn to another party, that's a pretty severe indictment of the party leader, right?

It is a little terrifying how people talk about Labour as if it's recently deceased. I mean, if the future for Labour is to slide into third-party irrelevance and become the Lib Dems because they have no policy goals and their base is lost to racism, Corbyn is the perfect leader for that role. But then they'd really better get on with it, right? So that somebody else can be Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition.

I think it's a bit much to pin it on someone who's been in the job for a year rather than the string of people who've been in the role previously though, no? Which is why my question is could someone else (realistic suggestions please, i.e. Kendall, Cooper, or Burnham) have prevented the outcome? If the response is 'no but they would have had the decency to resign' then that just looks like admitting that losing the referendum can't realistically be pinned on Corbyn rather than a demographic shift that Labour has failed to combat over a number of years.

 

[Hasney]

EDIT: Nevermind, I was pages behind!

 

[PJV3]

This would be a socially-conservative economically-left party, though. Labour's old industrial base are very socially conservative, as a rule of thumb.

Yeah, but I don't see them taking off now the EU issue is mostly dealt with, May is going to lead us out properly. Could easily be wrong though.

Not sure what Conservatives have to do with what I put?

Just saying if they play cards right they could replace Labour

It will cause trouble for the Tories and open up space for the libdem and labour party. The Tories have done a lot of work shedding the image of the nasty party.

It was just an observation about the Tories and their assumed invincibility. To be honest anything and everything Could happen in the UK at the moment.

 

[Goodlife]

UKIP is going to fade away, now that Farage has gone.

He was a cunt, but was a great face for UKIP.
They'll struggle without him

 

[Randy Lanzarote]

May should just call a snap election. Given the current disarray in the opposition
it may actually completely fracture the Labour party into Momentum and New Labour (please call it that!)

At the very least, it would stop me having to read "she only has 0.0004% mandate coz she didnt win no general election to be prime minister" posts on social media.

 

[PJV3]

UKIP is going to fade away, now that Farage has gone.

He was a cunt, but was a great face for UKIP.
They'll struggle without him

And some of the genuine anger at the wealth gap and Westminster bubble has been successfully vented. I can't see too many(enough to succeed) northerners being fooled by an Aaron Banks funded leftist party.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I think it's a bit much to pin it on someone who's been in the job for a year rather than the string of people who've been in the role previously though, no? Which is why my question is could someone else (realistic suggestions please, i.e. Kendall, Cooper, or Burnham) have prevented the outcome? If the response is 'no but they would have had the decency to resign' then that just looks like admitting that losing the referendum can't realistically be pinned on Corbyn rather than a demographic shift that Labour has failed to combat over a number of years.

I think there's a conceivable world where Burnham might have, maybe. He has more appeal in the North than the other three ever did.

 

[Bananajama]

It will cause trouble for the Tories and open up space for the libdem and labour party. The Tories have done a lot of work shedding the image of the nasty party.

It was just an observation about the Tories and their assumed invincibility. To be honest anything and everything Could happen in the UK at the moment.

Ah - gotcha!

 

[Goodlife]

May should just call a snap election. Given the current disarray in the opposition
it may actually completely fracture the Labour party into Momentum and New Labour (please call it that!)

At the very least, it would stop me having to read "she only has 0.0004% mandate coz she didnt win no general election to be prime minister" posts on social media.

I think lib Dems have thrown a spanner in works with that.

If they are running on a no brexit platform they will get a lot of Tory votes

 

[kmag]

I think there's a conceivable world where Burnham might have, maybe. He has more appeal in the North than the other three ever did.

Burnham would also have had the 'success' of the Hillsborough inquest giving him a boost pre-ref.

 

[Bananajama]

Burnham would also have had the 'success' of the Hillsborough inquest giving him a boost pre-ref.

If a party wants a guaranteed boost in the north they only have to promise an Independent Orgreave inquiry

 

[Bony Manifesto]

May should just call a snap election. Given the current disarray in the opposition
it may actually completely fracture the Labour party into Momentum and New Labour (please call it that!)

Isn't that dependant on Labour getting a drubbing and Corbyn still refusing to step down though? That's the most likely outcome, and it's hard to see a scenario where anything else happens, but we've literally just had a referendum where the bookies' favourite option lost by a not-insignificant margin. It's a bit of a risk to take to merely extend this current government by one and a half years.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Man, imagine Corbyn became Labour's equivalent of Kim Jong Il, except instead of winning every election with 106% of the vote, he loses in ever more catastrophic ways whilst never vacating the leadership?

 

[Par Score]

Smith is on the soft left of the party; he was an Ed Miliband protege. Eagle is uh... well, she was a Blairite in the real sense of the word, but she's steadily been trying to move to the centre of the party for some time.

Smith has better chance than Eagle, I think.

Bollocks is he. Smith is an opportunist pure and simple.

He was more Blairite than Blair when that was what it took to get ahead in Labour, then when Blair went out of fashion he cosied up to Brown. He was more than happy to back Ed in exchange for a Shad Cab position, and the same with Corbyn.

He sees the way the wind is blowing with the membership, so now all of a sudden he's "soft left". He's a bloody chameleon and I wouldn't trust him as far as I could throw him.

Having said all that, he's still miles better than Eagle and I'm glad he'll be on the ballot.

May should just call a snap election. Given the current disarray in the opposition
it may actually completely fracture the Labour party into Momentum and New Labour (please call it that!)

At the very least, it would stop me having to read "she only has 0.0004% mandate coz she didnt win no general election to be prime minister" posts on social media.

The real issue of May's mandate is that she's signalled a break from the policies that got the Tories elected in 2015, her plans don't square with much of the manifesto at that time, and it would be politically sensible for her to seek a fresh mandate.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Bollocks is he. Smith is an opportunist pure and simple.

He was more Blairite than Blair when that was what it took to get ahead in Labour, then when Blair went out of fashion he cosied up to Brown. He was more than happy to back Ed in exchange for a Shad Cab position, and the same with Corbyn.

I might be wrong, but I don't think Smith was ever in with Blair's crowd. He was a Brownite - which I think is actually the background of the vast majority of the Labour Party at this point. Genuine Blairites are actually quite rare.

 

[kmag]

I might be wrong, but I don't think Smith was ever in with Blair's crowd. He was a Brownite - which I think is actually the background of the vast majority of the Labour Party at this point. Genuine Blairites are actually quite rare.

Blairite, a bit like neoliberal is, at this point at least, short hand for "folk who I don't agree with/or don't agree with Jeremy"

 

[PJV3]

I might be wrong, but I don't think Smith was ever in with Blair's crowd. He was a Brownite - which I think is actually the background of the vast majority of the Labour Party at this point. Genuine Blairites are actually quite rare.

The stench of the Blairite/Brownite labels is a never ending nightmare. Maybe Labour actually needs a fucking drubbing and clear out of such magnitude that we can start again.

 

[Kurtofan]

Man, imagine Corbyn became Labour's equivalent of Kim Jong Il, except instead of winning every election with 106% of the vote, he loses in ever more catastrophic ways whilst never vacating the leadership?

He didn't lose any elections for Labour so far...

 

[Randy Lanzarote]

I think lib Dems have thrown a spanner in works with that.

If they are running on a no brexit platform they will get a lot of Tory votes

It would certainly be interesting to see what would happen if a party ran on a 'Reverse Brexit' platform. (Well, aside from the SNP).

Isn't that dependant on Labour getting a drubbing and Corbyn still refusing to step down though? That's the most likely outcome, and it's hard to see a scenario where anything else happens, but we've literally just had a referendum where the bookies' favourite option lost by a not-insignificant margin. It's a bit of a risk to take to merely extend this current government by one and a half years.

I was thinking more of those Labour MPs who are in contested constituencies and genuinely concerned about holding onto their seat with Corbyn still at the helm. The Labour party splitting before any election is probably not going to happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if a number of Labour MPs ran as independents to dissociate themselves from Corbyn.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

He didn't lose any elections for Labour so far...

In 2012, Labour's projected national share of the vote from the council elections was 38%. In 2016, it was 31%. That's a 7% drop nationally. Holding two Labour safe seats is really not a critical test.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

The stench of the Blairite/Brownite labels is a never ending nightmare. Maybe Labour actually needs a fucking drubbing and clear out of such magnitude that we can start again.

All we're doing right now is creating Corbynite as a new label. If Smith becomes big, we'll have Smithies. When Jarvis rises, we'll have Jarvistas. I don't think you can really avoid such things.

 

[kmag]

The stench of the Blairite/Brownite labels is a never ending nightmare. Maybe Labour actually needs a fucking drubbing and clear out of such magnitude that we can start again.

Even if the Labour party was just Jeremy and a 10 year old boy, if that boy didn't agree with Jeremy on absolutely everything he'd be blairite scum like the rest of them.

That's not going to change even if the 80% of the PLP not backing Corbyn resigned tomorrow. The one thing the far left is good at is fracturing, complaining and dithering over slight differences of opinion. No one is as ideologically pure as the guy who is currently speaking.

I think some Labour MP's should consider the David Davis option, of resigning to stand again in a by-election.

 

[Hazzuh]

Good article on what a poor showing we've seen from Labour since Brexit:

They [The PLP] haven't learned a single thing from what happened with Corbyn. They haven't taken one single lesson from his extraordinary wave of support last year. They only see entryism by Trots, but there's so much more to it than that. It reflected a burning need for a politics that wasn't just about managerial competence and triangulation and focus groups, that was about challenging the status quo, talking about big ideas and inspiring people. It is the same message, albeit from a different political direction, provided by the Brexit vote. Moods have changed and mainstream politics is struggling to reflect or capture that.

Corbyn has been a spectacular failure in this regard. He has no ideas beyond the ones he formed decades ago. He can't appeal to the country, he can't win power, he can't speak to anyone outside of his tiny, cultish political echo chamber. And most importantly he has no sense of the responsibility for the national interest, which demands he make way for a credible opposition in this time of acute crisis.

But the Labour plotters have in a way become their own cult. They see the Momentum conspiracy, which is not difficult given that it takes place in plain sight, but not the political factors which allowed it to take place. They are playing the same old tune when it is perfectly obvious there is a demand - a strong, powerful, patriotically-necessary demand - for something else. They deserve just as much criticism as Corbyn and his weirdo acolytes.

I have zero time for Corbyn but I desperately hope Labour can put forward someone better than Eagle or Smith. People accuse the PLP of being blairite but you could say that is giving them too much credit. When Blair first came in to office he actually had a fairly compelling vision of how British society needed to change to the economic and social challenges of the 1990s (ie everyone goes to uni to study geography or something then works in an office and lives in suburbia). I think there are lots of ways in which it was ill conceived but it is unfair to just present him as a totally cynical politician. Labour must have one MP with a compelling vision for post-Brexit Britain.

 

[PJV3]

All we're doing right now is creating Corbynite as a new label. If Smith becomes big, we'll have Smithies. When Jarvis rises, we'll have Jarvistas. I don't think you can really avoid such things.

Aye, it just seems like a silly divisive label for not that much actual ideological difference. And it gets tied in with the Iraq war era that some in the party will never let go of.

 

[Polari]

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 38% (+1)
LAB: 30% (-)
UKIP: 15% (-)
LDEM: 8% (-)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via ICM / 08 - 10 Jul)
Chgs. from 01-03/07.

Planet real life... shambles and way ahead and likely to get a big boost. I'm sure over the coming weeks they will gel together and start to work toward Brexit. Can you imagine what they will do with no viable opposition to draw awareness to their plans. Sure let's just give them a free reign to do what they want.... sigh.

Quite incredible that Labour have managed to hold steady in the polls despite appearing to be on the verge of total collapse. They ended up with 31.2% in the election and haven't deviated far from that since.

 

[Sir_Crocodile]

All we're doing right now is creating Corbynite as a new label. If Smith becomes big, we'll have Smithies. When Jarvis rises, we'll have Jarvistas. I don't think you can really avoid such things.

Is that a barista who will only make java tea?