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UK Labour Leadership Crisis: Corbyn retained as leader by strong margin

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If she puts together a solid cabinet and gets a good sense of post-brexit unity in the next couple of weeks then I think it's a really good chance we will see a snap election called.


Yeah must be odds on now surely, that would be one election I couldn't bring myself to watch.
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Going to write a letter to Jarvis asking him to stand, methinks.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
If Theresa May goes for an election now, it could be a massacre like never before. I reckon she would be foolish not to take advantage of Labours state of affairs, just like Gordon Brown hesitated while ahead in the polls.

I disagree strongly. There's a lot of really important and quite urgent government stuff to be done in sorting out the aftermath of this Brexit vote.

It would be the equivalent of Brown going to the polls immediately after the 2008 crash when the government was busy doing government things.

Let 'em stew instead.

Besides, she's really only got tomorrow morning to do it without calling "no confidence" on herself, which would look really bad.
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
I disagree strongly. There's a lot of really important and quite urgent government stuff to be done in sorting out the aftermath of this Brexit vote.

It would be the equivalent of Brown going to the polls immediately after the 2008 crash when the government was busy doing government things.

Let 'em stew instead.

that's not a problem. she just says "we're going through an incredibly contentious time and we need as much unity as possible, which is why I need to ensure that I have the necessary mandate and confidence of my people."
 
I disagree strongly. There's a lot of really important and quite urgent government stuff to be done in sorting out the aftermath of this Brexit vote.

It would be the equivalent of Brown going to the polls immediately after the 2008 crash when the government was busy doing government things.


True, but if Brexit recession hits the pockets of those key swing voters she may well lose very badly if Labour somehow get rid of Corbyn. It's a tricky balancing act and I think the outcome of the Labour leadership election might make her mind up sometime next year.
 

Jezbollah

Member
LEADERSHIP ELECTION TIMETABLE

CnMU5ABWIAAQklf.jpg
 

Jackpot

Banned
Ed Miliband was 8 points ahead of Corbyn in the polls at this cycle (before May gets a boost).

Corbyn is performing *terribly* - historically badly. And you can't put that down to infighting, given that both Blair and Miliband suffered worse and did better.

(worse up until this point that is!).

"But he's never lost!"

If Theresa May goes for an election now, it could be a massacre like never before. I reckon she would be foolish not to take advantage of Labours state of affairs, just like Gordon Brown hesitated while ahead in the polls.

nah, she won't want to rock the boat and add months more uncertainty. Not to mention it'll deplete the Tory coffers even further. Elections cost a pretty penny to run and despite their rich friends no party is swimming in money.
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
They're making Jan 12th the freeze date?

Hoo boy.
 

Par Score

Member
Oh THIS is interesting:

George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton 4m4 minutes ago
Labour NEC votes for six month membership freeze date and two days for registered supporters with £25 fee.
Even more interesting:

Craig Woodhouse ‏@craigawoodhouse 10m10 minutes ago
Only members who joined before Feb will be allowed to vote in Labour leadership election.

Craig Woodhouse ‏@craigawoodhouse 8m8 minutes ago
Corbyn's army of £3 supporters will need to re-register and pay £25 fee. And huge number of new arrivals can't vote.

This is likely to prevent right-wing entryists from fixing the vote against Corbyn, so good.

Corbyn voters surged into the party when he won, this scuppers any Blairite plan for last minute shenanigans, Corbyn would have won without his £3 army, and a lot of those are now fully fledged members anyway.

Pokemon-Garden-August-Sugimori-silhouette-2.png

Who's that Labour MP?!

Why it's someone to split the vote against Corbyn!

They have barely any chance of winning unless Eagle steps down. It'll be a mess if there's not just one contender.

That's not how the Labour leadership election works, it's a transferable vote system. If the ABCs have more votes than us Corbynites then they could run 10 candidates and still win.
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
This is likely to prevent right-wing entryists from fixing the vote against Corbyn, so good.

It's really not, it's designed to keep out the £3 brigade, largely students, by charging them £25 instead.
 

Maledict

Member
This is likely to prevent right-wing entryists from fixing the vote against Corbyn, so good.

Corbyn voters surged into the party when he won, this scuppers any Blairite plan for last minute shenanigans, Corbyn would have won without his £3 army, and a lot of those are now fully fledged members anyway.

.

You think right wing entryists are going to vote AGAINST Corbyn? ? ?

Corbyn is the greatest gift the Tory party have had in the last 20 years. They pray everyday that he remains leader. You understand that absed on current polling Labour are facing electoral wipeout with him in charge?
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
I'm hearing Smith is announcing his bid tomorrow.
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
the guy wants to privatize the nhs, right?

...not that I'm aware of? He's on the left of the Labour Party, certainly. Sort of an Ed Miliband protege. He was a spokesman for Pfizer and wanted greater involvement for Pfizer in NHS services as their employee, but... a job's a job, and that was a decade ago now.
 
I facepalm at Corbynistas on facebook who support him wholeheartedly. You're betraying the people who need Labour most for the sake of your ideological purity. I once supported Corbyn, but now I will vote against him.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
True, but if Brexit recession hits the pockets of those key swing voters she may well lose very badly if Labour somehow get rid of Corbyn. It's a tricky balancing act and I think the outcome of the Labour leadership election might make her mind up sometime next year.

Only if they replace Corbyn with somebody sane, competent and persuasive such as ...

... er, um ...

and even then Labour will split and dissolve over the next couple of years. Earliest GE I can see would be May 2019, after the Boundary Commission has done its work and the opposition has shredded itself twice.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
You think right wing entryists are going to vote AGAINST Corbyn? ? ?

Corbyn is the greatest gift the Tory party have had in the last 20 years. They pray everyday that he remains leader. You understand that absed on current polling Labour are facing electoral wipeout with him in charge?

I think he meant the right wing of the Labour party.
 
Pro-Corbyn. I would have signed up for Labour months ago, but I'm saving for a mortgage deposit and trying to manage my money as best I can.

Interesting. And the £25 one-off fee to vote if you're not a member doesn't interest you?

I was thinking this would be a walkover for Corbyn, but even though he won last time without the votes of supporters, he'll likely need them this time. And if a lot of the pro-Corbyn supporters didn't join the party as full members after he became leader (or balk at paying £25 to vote), then maybe it'll be closer than it first appears. He's still the runaway favourite, no doubt, but the other contenders may have a chance.
 

RetroDLC

Foundations of Burden
Interesting. And the £25 one-off fee to vote if you're not a member doesn't interest you?

I was thinking this would be a walkover for Corbyn, but even though he won last time without the votes of supporters, he'll likely need them this time. And if a lot of the pro-Corbyn supporters didn't join the party as full members after he became leader (or balk at paying £25 to vote), then maybe it'll be closer than it first appears. He's still the runaway favourite, no doubt, but the other contenders may have a chance.

You have to be an existing member from before January 12th too, so I'm screwed regardless the price.
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
You have to be an existing member from before January 12th too, so I'm screwed regardless the price.

No. To vote as a member, you have to have had membership since Jan 12th. To vote as a registered supporter, you need to pay £25 by July 20th, according to that timetable.
 

kmag

Member
McDonald and Corbyn are big fans of Cuba and China, so they'll be happy with this latest move to a one party state.
 
Only if they replace Corbyn with somebody sane, competent and persuasive such as ...

... er, um ...

and even then Labour will split and dissolve over the next couple of years. Earliest GE I can see would be May 2019, after the Boundary Commission has done its work and the opposition has shredded itself twice.


Dan Jarvis, the one man the Tories are scared of. He won't stand yet but if labour survive and have him in place in a few years, the Tories will be struggling.
 

RetroDLC

Foundations of Burden
No. To vote as a member, you have to have had membership since Jan 12th. To vote as a registered supporter, you need to pay £25 by July 20th, according to that timetable.

Ah, that's a slight benefit for the situation, but I'm not in a position to even spare £25.
 

BadHand

Member
People saying that it is possible to join Unite (community membership) and register as a labour supporter to vote in the upcoming leadership election without having to pay £25.

Does this sound accurate?
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
People saying that it is possible to join Unite (community membership) and register as a labour supporter to vote in the upcoming leadership election without having to pay £25.

Does this sound accurate?

I was going to say No, and then I checked the details, and uh... looks like yes? You still have to have registered by the supporter deadline, but it costs 50p rather than £25. Note that you have to be a student, carer, retired or unemployed, though.
 

mrklaw

MrArseFace
That's exactly what the tories want you to think. They're damned good at this manipulating the public business.

He's to blame a little, yeah. But he is way, way, way down the line of people whose fault the referendum result is.

He has huge popular support among the wider public - they had huge numbers of people signing up to the labour party just to vote for him. They connected with his everyman story and the idea that he could bring something new to the table that wasn't just the same old establishment bullshit. The sort of entrenched middle ground politics that many leave voters feel removed from.

If he'd have campaigned hard for remain I fully believe he could have swung the result for remain
 

kmag

Member
He has huge popular support among the wider public - they had huge numbers of people signing up to the labour party just to vote for him. They connected with his everyman story and the idea that he could bring something new to the table that wasn't just the same old establishment bullshit. The sort of entrenched middle ground politics that many leave voters feel removed from.

If he'd have campaigned hard for remain I fully believe he could have swung the result for remain

Those folk all go missing on the 5th of May or something? They all putting the kettle on when the pollsters call?
 
3) will any of the Labour PLP jump ship? How soon will the Labour party split? Is Corbyn such a dire electoral millstone that 112 of the PLP could be persuaded into the LibDems to oust Labour as the official opposition?

Farron stands up to ask the first of his six questions at PMQs, the three benches behind him packed with former Labour members. A rift in time and space caused by the sheer unlikeliness of everything that had transpired up until that exact moment opens. The speaker's chair is consumed instantly, followed by May, Farron and the rest of parliament. Boris Johnson's haircut gives it momentary struggle. Soon after, England and Wales are consumed, leaving only the Remain-voting cities, Scotland and Northern Ireland floating adrift in the North Sea.

Lib dem leader is Tim Farron though, he's a plonker. :/

avatar_0d7144cecd81_128.png


:(
 
It seems kind of bizarro to me that a trade union have a membership type for those who are "student, carer, retired or unemployed" - in what capacity are they represented by a trade union?!
 

Pandy

Member
Yeah I know your right a very big if indeed, but damn if we end up in a one party state I fear for the future.
Please stop using the term 'one party state' when you clearly don't know what it means. We already get enough of that lazy rubbish in the Scottish media about the SNP.

Thanks very much.

EDIT:
McDonald and Corbyn are big fans of Cuba and China, so they'll be happy with this latest move to a one party state.
This, at least, was in the form of a joke with implied understanding of the proper meaning. :)
 
I was referencing Unite. Also I'm not sure the NUS count as a trade union, do they? What trade are they representing, drinking jagerbombs at Alternative Night?

The NUS is a union in principle, although maybe not legally (I don't think an NUS rep can show up to back you at a disciplinary meeting at work!). It's a very good vehicle to jump on if you want to go work for unions or the Labour Party, too.
 
I was referencing Unite. Also I'm not sure the NUS count as a trade union, do they? What trade are they representing, drinking jagerbombs at Alternative Night?


They also represent a lot of people beyond undergraduates, Including all the postgraduate research (Masters, Ph.D candidates) students.
 
Please stop using the term 'one party state' when you clearly don't know what it means. We already get enough of that lazy rubbish in the Scottish media about the SNP.

Thanks very much.


No I will not, I'm well aware of what it means and considering I'm from Scotland(oh and an Snp voter now) I do not use the term in the sense you clearly think, Theresa May has some pretty dodgy policies regarding privacy, spying etc and I could easily see the similarity between her ideas and a police state, if you cannot make that connection then that is fine it's how I see it.
 

Pandy

Member
No I will not, I'm well aware of what it means and considering I'm from Scotland(oh and an Snp voter now) I do not use the term in the sense you clearly think, Theresa May has some pretty dodgy policies regarding privacy, spying etc and I could easily see the similarity between her ideas and a police state, if you cannot make that connection then that is fine it's how I see it.
A police state, absolutely.
A one party state, unlikely.
They are two very different things.

That said, after the last couple of weeks, I'm not exactly confident enough to entirely rule it out either!
 
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