• Hey Guest. Check out your NeoGAF Wrapped 2025 results here!

PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house

Status
Not open for further replies.
Aaron Strife said:
I was just wondering if McConnell or Ryan were going to face honest-to-God leadership coups soon.

McConnell fucked this hard. I never would have imagined McConnell would prove to be more incompetent than Ryan who at least got a bill passed (granted, knowing that whatever he came up with would be overwritten by the Senate).

For all the talk about "we need to replace Pelosi RIGHT NOW" the Republican leaders are even more unpopular and way way way even more incompetent.
Click to expand...
He thought the Cruz Amendment would pass, and it could have. He needed to fleece just one Moderate Darling, which he was able to do with massive Opiod funding. The question is whether McCain's surgery had an impact. It certainly delayed the vote. If McCain didn't leave, BCRA could have passed with 50+Pence. Unless my timeline is off.
 
Aaron Strife said:
I was just wondering if McConnell or Ryan were going to face honest-to-God leadership coups soon.

McConnell fucked this hard. I never would have imagined McConnell would prove to be more incompetent than Ryan who at least got a bill passed (granted, knowing that whatever he came up with would be overwritten by the Senate).

For all the talk about "we need to replace Pelosi RIGHT NOW" the Republican leaders are even more unpopular and way way way even more incompetent.
Click to expand...

Turtle should resign his Senate seat and go back to Kentucky forever.

I used to think he was competent (though a piece of shit). Guess not.
 
Bonen no Max'd said:
except for Voldemort (I mean what the fuck Florida you are literally the most likely place to get fucked over by climate change) the bad news isn't *that* bad. Hogan and Baker are lame and it sucks that people get boners for moderate Rs but they won't be that bad. Shit numbers for Walker or Snyder on the other hand means we have a chance to make big improvements.
Click to expand...
Yeah I was debating whether to even put Hogan and Baker's popularity as bad news because Democrats have ridiculous supermajorities in those states anyway. Those Republicans may as well be GINOs.

RustyNails said:
He thought the Cruz Amendment would pass, and it could have. He needed to fleece just one Moderate Darling, which he was able to do with massive Opiod funding. The question is whether McCain's surgery had an impact. It certainly delayed the vote. If McCain didn't leave, BCRA could have passed with 50+Pence. Unless my timeline is off.
Click to expand...
I think him going around telling moderate senators not to worry about the Medicaid cuts because they wouldn't happen anyway is what sunk it, not McCain's surgery. Although perhaps that shifted the timeline around, idk.

JettDash said:
Turtle should resign his Senate seat and go back to Kentucky forever.

I used to think he was competent (though a piece of shit). Guess not.
Click to expand...
Wish Conway won in 2015, then when McConnell resigned out of shame we could have gotten Grimey in that seat.
 
RustyNails said:
He thought the Cruz Amendment would pass, and it could have. He needed to fleece just one Moderate Darling, which he was able to do with massive Opiod funding. The question is whether McCain's surgery had an impact. It certainly delayed the vote. If McCain didn't leave, BCRA could have passed with 50+Pence. Unless my timeline is off.
Click to expand...

The BCRA was never in a situation where it would have passed.
 
RustyNails said:
He thought the Cruz Amendment would pass, and it could have. He needed to fleece just one Moderate Darling, which he was able to do with massive Opiod funding. The question is whether McCain's surgery had an impact. It certainly delayed the vote. If McCain didn't leave, BCRA could have passed with 50+Pence. Unless my timeline is off.
Click to expand...

Ultimately I think that the killing blow has to have been the leaked reassurances to the moderates. If McCain's surgery was all it was, then they would've had to go another round of "terrible score-> tweak small stuff -> rushrushrush," but Johnson and Lee pulling out the way they did basically cemented the fact that it wasn't possible to get enough Senators on board all at once.

Of course, the reason WHY those reassurances leaked is its own kettle of fish. That'll be attributed to McConnell not having the right leadership tools to actually legislate for something. Against, sure, but he wasn't capable of providing motivation absent a Democratic president for him to rally against. Not without alienating as many people as he brought around, anyway. By the time he got around to trying to sweet-talk the moderates they'd become sufficiently aggrieved to tell both news outlets and their conservative colleagues about the promises he made.
 
I guess it's time to start wondering what tax reform will look like.

At least on Tax Reform there is a ton of room to do something to make it actually better without increasing the role of government, though they'll screw it up with incredibly greedy tax cuts specifically for the ultra wealthy.
 
thepotatoman said:
I guess it's time to start wondering what tax reform will look like.

At least on Tax Reform there is a ton of room to do something to make it actually better without increasing the role of government, though they'll screw it up with incredibly greedy tax cuts specifically for the ultra wealthy.
Click to expand...

I bet they end up fucking it up and nothing passed. Maybe temporary tax cuts like Dubya did.
 
thepotatoman said:
I guess it's time to start wondering what tax reform will look like.

At least on Tax Reform there is a ton of room to do something to make it actually better without increasing the role of government, though they'll screw it up with incredibly greedy tax cuts specifically for the ultra wealthy.
Click to expand...

The thing is, all the ways that they could make the tax code actually better run directly against the interest of their business interests, and the far-right wing is gonna try to load a bunch of hideously unpopular stuff on top of it. It's gonna be healthcare all over again, where things get worse for most people and way better for the rich.

Only way it goes forward at all is as a Dubya Cuts 2.0, which isn't really tax reform.
 
DFCOdSfXoAIu_X0.jpg

jeez
 
DFCOdSfXoAIu_X0.jpg:large
Click to expand...
The lesson: YOLO it when you have power. Go as far as you can without being stupid, because the GOP won't fix your policy fuckups, and you can't incrementally expand things over a course of years, it has to be large incremental expansions over decades.
 
thepotatoman said:
I guess it's time to start wondering what tax reform will look like.

At least on Tax Reform there is a ton of room to do something to make it actually better without increasing the role of government, though they'll screw it up with incredibly greedy tax cuts specifically for the ultra wealthy.
Click to expand...

I've been saying it all along but Tax Reform is harder than Healthcare, straight up. There's too many moving parts. They'll fuck it up royal.
 
thepotatoman said:
I guess it's time to start wondering what tax reform will look like.

At least on Tax Reform there is a ton of room to do something to make it actually better without increasing the role of government, though they'll screw it up with incredibly greedy tax cuts specifically for the ultra wealthy.
Click to expand...

Screw it up? Almost makes it sound like the massive tax cuts for the rich would be an accident. that's all the tax reform is going to look like. That's it's intention.
 
studyguy said:
DFCOdSfXoAIu_X0.jpg

jeez
Click to expand...
The Democratic Party image staying the exact same throughout all of this is pretty impressive to me, even if it's not particularly good.

"Americans will blame the Democrats for this!" No Trump, no they will not.

I'm not going to outright predict that Democrats will win the House majority in 2018, but them gaining seats and posting a significant lead in the generic ballot seems guaranteed. I just hope it's enough.
 
RustyNails said:
Wasnt Murkowski awfully quiet? Rand and Collins were solid No's.
Click to expand...

In order to make Murkowski and Heller be quiet, he promised the cuts would never go into effect. After that he lost Johnson and others. And I don't think Heller was ever really switched to a yes, just a ton of assumptions by Twitter (and this thread).

The only situation where it maybe squeaks by is if Johnson and friends never hear about the promise made to moderates. Which seems kind of unlikely.
 
It's infuriating that he can literally say, we're going to fuck up existing healthcare and then blame the democrats. Next election cycle, there will be tons of people you could show that quote to and they either won't believe it, or more likely just not care and still think it's not the Republicans fault.
 
Fenderputty said:
Don't they have to talk budget before they talk tax cuts? I'm assuming without healthcare they'll have to find savings by slashing spending.
Click to expand...
Not only that but they have to deal with Puerto Rico and the debt ceiling.

The plan was to slash Medicaid spending in the BCRA so they could pass giant tax cuts in that bill. Then repeal those tax cuts and replace them with different ones for tax reform next year.

Now unless they take the axe to the budget heavily they'll have to sunset any tax cuts they pass after 10 years.
 
kirblar said:
The lesson: YOLO it when you have power. Go as far as you can without being stupid, because the GOP won't fix your policy fuckups, and you can't incrementally expand things over a course of years, it has to be large incremental expansions over decades.
Click to expand...

if every decade, you have a two year window to go crazy and pass all kinds of progressive policies while playing defense for the remaining eight... that's not so bad, I guess.
 
balladofwindfishes said:
In order to make Murkowski and Heller be quiet, he promised the cuts would never go into effect. After that he lost Johnson and others. And I don't think Heller was ever really switched to a yes, just a ton of assumptions by Twitter (and this thread).

The only situation where it maybe squeaks by is if Johnson and friends never hear about the promise made to moderates. Which seems kind of unlikely.
Click to expand...

I would honestly argue it wasn't just unlikely, it was borderline impossible. The reason the promises leaked is because the moderates were locked out of the bill writing process in an attempt to bring the conservatives on board, which generated a truckload of resentment. Not enough to sink the bill on its own, but certainly enough to get the moderates* and their staff chatting to reporters, which is what brought those promises to Johnson et al's attention in the first place. Meanwhile, if McConnell had brought the moderates* on board instead of the conservatives to write the bill, you'd have just had the mirror situation play out.

The only way this thing passed is if McConnell had nuked the filibuster and pushed the bill through without a CBO score back when everyone thought he was an invincible genius and he had the power to maybe make that happen.

*Not actually moderate. From now on I'm prolly just gonna leave an asterisk on the word whenever I'm talking about Republicans.
 
BobTheFork said:
It's infuriating that he can literally say, we're going to fuck up existing healthcare and then blame the democrats. Next election cycle, there will be tons of people you could show that quote to and they either won't believe it, or more likely just not care and still think it's not the Republicans fault.
Click to expand...
Eh, I don't think he gets the benefit of the doubt from enough swing voters for it to matter.

Republican voters will always vote Republican, we need to make peace with that.

I think swing voters in the last election who liked neither candidate (I am totally cribbing someone's thesis here so apologies for that but it was well-put) assumed Trump would be similar to Bill Clinton - personally scummy, but politically savvy centrist who would be able to get things done. He'll have four years of proving that he is only one of those things.
 
So what does the GOP do now? My guess is something stupid like a "no gay cakes" bill just to make it seem like they are doing something, if tax reform and healthcare really aren't moving forward
 
VendettaRed07 said:
So what does the GOP do now? My guess is something stupid like a "no gay cakes" bill just to make it seem like they are doing something, if tax reform and healthcare really aren't moving forward
Click to expand...
What consensus do they even have for anything on the legislative agenda?

"Tax reform" is so vague as to basically be nothing and BCRA failing complicates its path forward, and McConnell swatted down doing anything with infrastructure years ago.
 
VendettaRed07 said:
So what does the GOP do now? My guess is something stupid like a "no gay cakes" bill just to make it seem like they are doing something, if tax reform and healthcare really aren't moving forward
Click to expand...

This doesn't pass without 60 votes (obviously, since it has nothing to do with a budget). Doubt it would even hit 50.

They're pretty stuck.

First order of business should be looking into cleaning house of Ryan and McConnell, especially the latter. They messed up BAD.
 
Aaron Strife said:
Eh, I don't think he gets the benefit of the doubt from enough swing voters for it to matter.

Republican voters will always vote Republican, we need to make peace with that.

I think swing voters in the last election who liked neither candidate (I am totally cribbing someone's thesis here so apologies for that but it was well-put) assumed Trump would be similar to Bill Clinton - personally scummy, but politically savvy centrist who would be able to get things done. He'll have four years of proving that he is only one of those things.
Click to expand...

Maybe not but those swing voters gave him the benefit of the doubt on pure horseshit and pleasantries in the last election. I don't trust them
 
balladofwindfishes said:
In order to make Murkowski and Heller be quiet, he promised the cuts would never go into effect. After that he lost Johnson and others. And I don't think Heller was ever really switched to a yes, just a ton of assumptions by Twitter (and this thread).

The only situation where it maybe squeaks by is if Johnson and friends never hear about the promise made to moderates. Which seems kind of unlikely.
Click to expand...
I just feel like there were many variables involved, and we shouldnt come this close. In any case, Democrats need their talking points ready because come Sunday talk shows, they will be asked "Now Trumpcare is dead, what is the Democrats plan to fix healthcare".

Answer should be Public Option but I dont think we're there yet.
 
studyguy said:
I don't understand how Rick Scott stays afloat.
Click to expand...
Good thing he's at least term limited. Unfortunately, Florida democrats are a mess.

I think he gets a pass because of I'm not mistaken, the FL economy overall is strong. So even if he's a corrupt climate denier, he gets a pass. But I guess whatever R runs next year, they'll be able to seek out his endorsement.
 
Man, this Republican Senate shit show implosion is spectacular to witness. I still haven't laughed about it though because I hate what they're doing so much.
 
benicillin said:
This is a dumb post and you should feel bad about it.
Click to expand...

LOL hey--as the first one on here to say people needed to worry about Trump winning the nomination, I earned the right.

*Note--I also said Ben Carson would have been chosen as VP. Then he opened his mouth and I looked like an idiot.

Seriously, though--about Zuckerberg, though, he's a charisma black hole. He has legitimately no shot. None.
 
Poodlestrike said:
Feels like it yeah.

Turns out this whole "legislating" thing is really hard y'all. Maybe we shouldn't ditch Pelosi?

Just a thought.
Click to expand...

I think every time republicans take control we see a ton of stories about how "genius" their leaders are. They were doing it about Paul Ryan recently, too.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair
395 396 397 398 399
20K
2M
RDreamer replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher
338 339 340 341 342
17K
2M
UselessNapkin replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why
393 394 395 396 397
20K
2M
Zaraki_Kenpachi replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT1| From Russia with Love
395 396 397 398 399
20K
1M
UberTag replied
  • Poll
2017-2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Topic: UNC from Redemption to Redeemed
21
4K
Corrik replied
Top Bottom