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Monitoring the situation in Iran

EviLore said:
…Europe…is going to come to our rescue in the pacific theater?
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Why would Allies you dont need, be asked for help?

I mean, its not like 12 Nuclear attack SSNs, 3 Aircraft Carriers with combined airwings of over 100 F35s, Rafales and 20 or so of some of the most advanced anti missile defence destroyers on the planet would be of any use anyway.

Besides, its a moot point. The US never dares to actually get into a fighting war with a peer, or near peer opponent.

The idea of the US risking a war with China over Taiwan is laughable. War is a purely transactional business for America, not a moral one. It's why the US would have been perfectly happy to see the Nazis take all of Europe in 1940-41 and make deals with them rather than do (unlike the UK) what is the morally correct thing to do even at the risk of losing everything.
 
So is the US actively striking with missiles, fighter jets, stealth bombers etc?

Feels like we're completely in the dark on what they are doing right now vs Israel who are announcing attacks on specific locations.
 
Dr.D00p said:
Why would Allies you dont need, be asked for help?

I mean, its not like 12 Nuclear attack SSNs, 3 Aircraft Carriers with combined airwings of over 100 F35s, Rafales and 20 or so of some of the most advanced anti missile defence destroyers on the planet would be of any use anyway.

Besides, its a moot point. The US never dares to actually get into a fighting war with a peer, or near peer opponent.

The idea of the US risking a war with China over Taiwan is laughable. War is a purely transactional business for America, not a moral one. It's why the US would have been perfectly happy to see the Nazis take all of Europe in 1940-41 and make deals with them rather than do (unlike the UK) what is the morally correct thing to do even at the risk of losing everything.
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You're criticizing the US for not intervening in WW2? Fascinating.
 
Go_Ly_Dow said:
So is the US actively striking with missiles, fighter jets, stealth bombers etc?

Feels like we're completely in the dark on what they are doing right now vs Israel who are announcing attacks on specific locations.
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I read that the apparent division of labor is the US striking mostly military targets and Israel striking government buildings and locations of leaders

So the US doesn't have much to say compared to Israel in that regard since we're blowing up the war materiel
 
Windom Earle said:
Careful, don't bring too much truth to the MAGAtards in this thread.
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If you want to blame anyone for escalation, blame Hamas. The first domino was the October 7th massacre.

A strike with zero. ZERO. Military benefit, just an act of criminal terrorist aggression.

An action funded, and no doubt greenlit, in Tehran.
 
SpiceRacz said:
Lucky chair.


ncum08t7w50e1.jpeg
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This entire time I thought she was flat back there! But she's got a bubble?!?!?
 
hollams said:


Wow......interesting take.
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Criticizing Israel doesn't necessarily mean you're an anti-semite. I think any reasonable person will agree to that. However when you're criticism is disconnected from reality, to the extent of Cenk Uygur, then yeah you are. To me Cenk is probably the worst anti-semite out there. Maybe 'the worst' is a bold statement, but he's among the worst.
 
DeafTourette said:
Trump said he destroyed their nuclear capabilities last year. So.... He lied and they have nukes? I'm confused.
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Who knows. The state of a hostile foreign nation's nuclear capability is not something that's likely to be publicly disseminated.

Its puzzling to me that so many people expect complete transparency on military intelligence... It literally flies in the face of reason when the whole point is not to let hostile actors know how much we know about their planning and readyness to move against us.
 
ContrarianAsshole said:
Usually, but in this case they have been fairly consistent ... until recently...
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I doubt they were really consistent. Some actors - maybe? But overall it was about pursuing the most vocal group or hedging the bets. The problem for most of the groups is that Trump is fairly consistent and transactional person that runs the country as a business. He is not ideological and thus it creates a problem for people who take sides as any side can lose any time. Or can win any time - long term or short term. One of the reasons why so many have TDS, IDS etc. Because Trump can deal with both Israel and Qatar. When you take one of the sides - it causes a short circuit.

Like with Mamdani for example. For huge chunks of followers the very idea working with new NYC mayor is bonkers, traitorous idea. For the opposite side it is also considered crazy, traitorous idea. For Trump? It is just business. The Congress is useless anyway and making deals with mayors or governors is easier. Give or take. Stuff like this.

People with TDS believe that just giving a fake newspaper with a headline allowed Mamdani to win over Trump or negotiate something. Or Tucker's visition to WH changes stuff and such. "How dare he!". In reality some deals were struck and if one of the conditions to get something was to release that illegal influencer from prison, it could be worth it. There is not point in pear clutching. Which is a problem for people taking sides.

DeafTourette said:
Trump said he destroyed their nuclear capabilities last year. So.... He lied and they have nukes? I'm confused.
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There are things you can and can't do with nuclear facilities. Iran can't rebuild the facilities - even minor damage basically makes them dysfunctional (it is quite sensetive equipment, you can't just "restore" it and use it later anymore). However the situation with nuclear material overall is different. Byproduct of all this crap can be used for dirty bombs. Which are kinda nukes but they are not explosive, just cause contamination of swath areas. The rumour is that IRGC decided to target them after the facility destruction.
 
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Who knows if true or not


Iran's IRGC says it attacked USS Abraham Lincoln, state media reportspublished at 14:14
14:14Breaking


Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC) says in a statement that they have attacked USS Abraham Lincoln with four ballistic missiles, according to Iranian state media.

USS Abraham Lincoln is the fifth Nimitz-class aircraft carrier in the United States Navy. Lincoln includes the latest F-35 stealth jets, capable of evading enemy radar.

The strike group also has three destroyers loaded with Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles, and is normally accompanied by a nuclear-powered submarine, which fires the same weapon.

According to satellite imagery verified by BBC Verify, it was spotted on 15 February off the coast of Oman.
 
Dr.D00p said:
Why would Allies you dont need, be asked for help?

I mean, its not like 12 Nuclear attack SSNs, 3 Aircraft Carriers with combined airwings of over 100 F35s, Rafales and 20 or so of some of the most advanced anti missile defence destroyers on the planet would be of any use anyway.

Besides, its a moot point. The US never dares to actually get into a fighting war with a peer, or near peer opponent.

The idea of the US risking a war with China over Taiwan is laughable. War is a purely transactional business for America, not a moral one. It's why the US would have been perfectly happy to see the Nazis take all of Europe in 1940-41 and make deals with them rather than do (unlike the UK) what is the morally correct thing to do even at the risk of losing everything.
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Curious... What exactly happened with "moral" when Czecholosvakia and Poland were invaded in 1939? Both countries with security guarantees from UK and France.

You definitely skipped Von Clausewitz classes in school.

Edit. Already banned

Ps. I've posted the division of targets some pages ago with sources.

US is going after the missile, nuclear, naval assets, air assets and infrastructure.
Israel is going after the leadership and command structure.

 
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Dr.D00p said:
I'm saying, at heart, America is a nation of opportunistic, isolationist cowardice...as Taiwan will discover in time.
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Isolationist- US had interfered in the world more than anyone since ww2. I wish we would pull back some.

Cowardice- US soldiers have given life after life to free Europe, Korea and provide a general safety to the world. Some of it has gone well some has not. But cowards the US is not.


I know you got banned but that is a bad take by you on what the US is.

Nations have interest not friends.
 
Ipsi said:


Strike earlier this morning killed many civilians

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I had a conversation with a good friend of mine who is Iranian in my gym about this earlier today. His reaction was.... interesting. The Iranians really hate the regime.

I hope they finally get their country back.

€dit: Ups... I quoted too fast. I though the video showed pictures of a school that was hit in Iran because it was build next to a rocket warehouse of something and children were killed. Anyway, he was like... every movement has casualties. :pie_astonished:
 
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Darius87 said:
So why usa/israel attacking iran then?
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To finish those clowns off? It is like asking "why we are deporting people if the borders are closed". You have a group supplying China with oil while still being an annoyance in the region. Now it is weak and falling apart. Time to wrap up their party.
 
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Darius87 said:
So why usa/israel attacking iran then?
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I'd say it is because the Iranian people have already shown that they are ready to take back control from a dictatorship that has been a plague in the world for decades. US and Israel see an opportunity and they are taking it. Fact of the matter is that any setback in Iran's nuclear aspirations is only a setback as long as the current regime is in charge and have close ties with Russia and China. These attacks have the potential to remove that alliance entirely which could not only reintroduce freedom to Iran that they enjoyed many years ago, but result in more stability in the region and globally.

All the contrived petty Trump "gotchas" in the world will not turn that outcome into a bad thing.
 
AJUMP23 said:
Isolationist- US had interfered in the world more than anyone since ww2. I wish we would pull back some.

Cowardice- US soldiers have given life after life to free Europe, Korea and provide a general safety to the world. Some of it has gone well some has not. But cowards the US is not.


I know you got banned but that is a bad take by you on what the US is.

Nations have interest not friends.
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Dr.D00p had a point when he made that remark about Taiwan.

The US ultimately didn't care about the Kurds in Syria they had protected for ten years.

www.france24.com

Syria's Kurds feel disappointed, abandoned by US after Damascus deal

Residents of the Kurdish Syrian city of Qamishli voiced disillusionment on Monday after a deal with Damascus struck a fatal blow to their long-held aspirations of autonomy, with some accusing the United…
www.france24.com www.france24.com

And the same thing happened with Ukraine where the US wasn't going to send them any more money.

www.theguardian.com

US suspends all military aid to Ukraine in wake of Trump-Zelenskyy row

Decision affects ammunition, vehicles and other equipment including weapons in transit
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

That could happen with Taiwan too. Is the US really going to war with China over Taiwan in a couple of years? Taiwan is of utmost importance because it's a production hub for hightech chips, but the US is very busy forcing Taiwanese companies to build production facilities in the US. The more chip production has been moved over to the US, the less likely it will be that the US will want to initiate WW3 over Taiwan.

The point isn't whether US soldiers are cowards, but whether they should die for a cause that is not worth fighting over.
 
kruis said:
The US ultimately didn't care about the Kurds in Syria they had protected for ten years.
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Because kurds failed to build a functioning organization without sectarianism. You can't prop up them forever without returns. Just their relationship with arabs was already an issue. And that's without their issues with various factions within. With Assad gone, what next? Propping up kurds to fight against Turkey and Syrian regime while there is discontent from arabs with kurdish territories? What's the point?

One a separate note
 
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Lord Panda said:
Can you fly next to North Korea please.
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Maybe I should? Kind of wild how I've had zero desire to go anywhere near the Middle East at any point in my life, and it's only now that I happen to be about to travel through there, with very few alternative routes I can find, that the US and Israel finally decide to turn the ayatollah into beard-flavoured jam.
 
ChuckeRearmed said:
Because kurds failed to build a functioning organization without sectarianism. You can't prop up them forever without returns. Just their relationship with arabs was already an issue. And that's without their issues with various factions within. With Assad gone, what next? Propping up kurds to fight against Turkey and Syrian regime while there is discontent from arabs with kurdish territories? What's the point?

One a separate note
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I know the WaPo is more Trump friendly now but didn't peg them to be dictator friendly
 
ChuckeRearmed said:
To finish those clowns off? It is like asking "why we are deporting people if the borders are closed". You have a group supplying China with oil while still being an annoyance in the region. Now it is weak and falling apart. Time to wrap up their party.
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and before attacking negotiating for Iran to stop it's nuke program, if Iran won't try aquire nukes no one would attack them.
 
Topher said:
I'd say it is because the Iranian people have already shown that they are ready to take back control from a dictatorship that has been a plague in the world for decades. US and Israel see an opportunity and they are taking it. Fact of the matter is that any setback in Iran's nuclear aspirations is only a setback as long as the current regime is in charge and have close ties with Russia and China. These attacks have the potential to remove that alliance entirely which could not only reintroduce freedom to Iran that they enjoyed many years ago, but result in more stability in the region and globally.

All the contrived petty Trump "gotchas" in the world will not turn that outcome into a bad thing.
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The Iranian people aren't united enough to win a fight against the mullahs. They've got a common cause, but there are no opposition leaders inside the country to lead them.

What's going to happen is that the mullahs and military will opt for a truce with Israel and the US after a couple of weeks of bombing each other, just like what happened in June last year. Iran will then finally give up their nuclear capabilities but the regime will be allowed to remain in power. Just like the Venezuelan regime was allowed to remain in power after Maduro was abducted by the US.

The only way the current Iranian regime can be toppled is through a successful military invasion and the US will never go that far. (And Israel is absolutely incapable of doing this). This is only a possibility if all the major Arab countries came together and together with the US invaded Iran with a couple of hundred thousand men. But more likely is they'd rather this whole war would end right now than enter an all out war that would keep the Straights of Hormuz blocked for months on end and wreak havoc on the world economy and their oil/gas revenues.
 
Darius87 said:
and before attacking negotiating for Iran to stop it's nuke program, if Iran won't try aquire nukes no one would attack them.
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It was pretty clear that IRGC continued to do so. Talks would not go anywhere. They would serve just a way to stall as long as possible. For IRGC they basically have no other way to exist aside continuous conflicts. They had military projects only really - funding proxies, expansion in the shia crescent, nuclear program, missile programs. IRGC controlled a lot of iranian industries and all of that was shoved into those programs. They lost proxies, they lost their shia crescent leaving only nuclear program and missile program. Nuclear program was heavily damaged leaving only the already enriched uranium and missile programs. IRGC would never pivot to development of the country - like restoring economy and such. So for them it was only continuous investment into military programs. Yeah, the regime would grow weaker in time. Yeah, there would be riots and protests. But they would have lasted for years still.
 
kruis said:
The Iranian people aren't united enough to win a fight against the mullahs. They've got a common cause, but there are no opposition leaders inside the country to lead them.

What's going to happen is that the mullahs and military will opt for a truce with Israel and the US after a couple of weeks of bombing each other, just like what happened in June last year. Iran will then finally give up their nuclear capabilities but the regime will be allowed to remain in power. Just like the Venezuelan regime was allowed to remain in power after Maduro was abducted by the US.

The only way the current Iranian regime can be toppled is through a successful military invasion and the US will never go that far. (And Israel is absolutely incapable of doing this). This is only a possibility if all the major Arab countries came together and together with the US invaded Iran with a couple of hundred thousand men. But more likely is they'd rather this whole war would end right now than enter an all out war that would keep the Straights of Hormuz blocked for months on end and wreak havoc on the world economy and their oil/gas revenues.
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We dont know what comes after this so I'm not going to try and guess. Venezuela is effectively under US control. Will there be a similar outcome in Iran? No idea.
 
Ozzie666 said:
Most young Russians I know are pretty much like anyone in the West, by young I would say those under 40-50 years of age. The problem with Russia is there is still hold overs from the USSR and all that it stood for. I'd be very curious to see what happens when Putin finally leaves one way or another.
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Russians, same as Chinese people never in their history were ruled by "normal" government. It was always Tsars (emperors in china), communist dictators and now other dictators. Once Putin dies/resigns some other dictator will take his place.

Russian people aren't ready for democracy, similar to ME countries (and China). Of course change is possible but it would have to be done by leaders that would want to give up their wealth and power (not gonna happen anytime soon).
 
ChuckeRearmed said:
Iran is too heterogenous to have the same result. I don't think it will be a similar situation to Venezuela at all.
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True. Was reading that the only way forward for true regime change is going to be mass defections from within the current regime. Not sure how US and Israel expect that to happen. Just going to have to wait and see.
 
Topher said:
True. Was reading that the only way forward for true regime change is going to be mass defections from within the current regime. Not sure how US and Israel expect that to happen. Just going to have to wait and see.
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Mass defection or potentially splintered into multiple states. We will see post today. If Israel and USA achieve control over iranian airspace it will be basically over for most of installaitons. And that's with gulf states potentially starting attacking too. Granted it is potentially the best opportunity for them to take over the Strait of Hormuz.


It seems like the chain of command is basically destroyed. The way he was trying to sell it as if it is a good thing is quite telling.


"Don't!"
 
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JimmyRustler said:
I had a conversation with a good friend of mine who is Iranian in my gym about this earlier today. His reaction was.... interesting. The Iranians really hate the regime.

I hope they finally get their country back.

€dit: Ups... I quoted too fast. I though the video showed pictures of a school that was hit in Iran because it was build next to a rocket warehouse of something and children were killed. Anyway, he was like... every movement has casualties. :pie_astonished:
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My dad was serving in the Iranian army, which is mandatory for men, when the revolution was coming to an end and the current regime came into power. He said he witnessed so many public executions and other atrocities the regime did in the early days that he knew it's time to get out of there. To say he hates them is putting it mildly.
 
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