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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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The more Dems learn about the GOP the more they like President Obama.




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So this GOP primary is just energizing democrats across the board. Shouldn't republicans be more concerned about this?
 
The problem is that the energy has to last, which won't be easy since as soon as Romney gets nominated you will see much more negative ad focus on Obama.

That fact that the difference between better and worse among independents is so small right now worries me.
 
TestOfTide said:
The problem is that the energy has to last, which won't be easy since as soon as Romney gets nominated you will see much more negative ad focus on Obama.

That fact that the difference between better and worse among independents is so small right now worries me.
Click to expand...

Yeah but look at the independent swing from December. It's a 8 point swing.
 
RoninChaos said:
Hey, FP, I'm down to come on again, but I'm working a 9-5 now so mornings can be tough. still down to help if you need anything though. Good luck!
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Yeah you can be a guest on the show when we do pre-recordings. I'll probably have to. I mean how many people at the school are free at 9am? Though I am quiting my job so the times my change.
 
TestOfTide said:
The problem is that the energy has to last, which won't be easy since as soon as Romney gets nominated you will see much more negative ad focus on Obama.

That fact that the difference between better and worse among independents is so small right now worries me.
Click to expand...
Romney is a walking gaffe machine. Even if the superpac ads drag down Obama's image (and the GOP had done nothing but attack Obama over the past four years - I'm pretty sure they've reached a limit by now), Romney's isn't getting any better.
 
Aaron Strife said:
Romney is a walking gaffe machine. Even if the superpac ads drag down Obama's image (and the GOP had done nothing but attack Obama over the past four years - I'm pretty sure they've reached a limit by now), Romney's isn't getting any better.
Click to expand...

Romney can pull all the negative ads he wants, but he still needs to have a plan and vision, a positive message for his platform to run on. That could potentially lead to a lot more fumbles if he's not careful, esp. since he's trying to please both the moderates and the crazies that make up his base. But so far, every hot topic that is going on right now...he seems to waffle or circle around them and have no solid stance on them. It's making him look weak.
 
Snowe's seat:

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Maine finds Angus King (I) leading in a three way U.S. Senate race with 36%, followed by Chellie Pingree (D) at 31% and Charlie Summers (R) at 28%.

Key findings: 62% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of King to only 24% with a negative one. His appeal also crosses party lines: he's at his most popular with Democrats at 74/14, but he's almost as well liked with independents at 69/20 and even above water with Republicans at 43/38.
Click to expand...
 
mckmas8808 said:
Yeah but look at the independent swing from December. It's a 8 point swing.
Click to expand...

It's still about the same amount that say their opinion hasn't changed (just above 60%). This is when basically the GOP primary contenders are showing the worst about each other and yet independents still aren't changing their minds that much.

And Romney hasn't been gaffing nearly as much during the debates anymore. Literally all of his gaffes have been "I have no conceptual grasp of my wealth." Social issues gaffes would be much more helpful to democrats.

And the primary is showing that even if the crazies don't like Romney they will eventually convince themselves to vote for him. Obama will need to find things that bring out a similar spark to democratic voters or the energy will die out by november.
 
Aaron Strife said:
Romney is a walking gaffe machine. Even if the superpac ads drag down Obama's image (and the GOP had done nothing but attack Obama over the past four years - I'm pretty sure they've reached a limit by now), Romney's isn't getting any better.
Click to expand...

This does make me wonder just how effective the attacks on Obama will be. It's not like they haven't been attacking him since he took office whenever a republican is on camera, in front of a crowd, or writing an opinion piece. Exactly what can they hit him with that won't be outright lies that would be so transparent and vile that the news media will have to admit themselves they are lies? Attacks also only go so far if Romney or whoever ends up winning doesn't say what they are for with details?

With the way things are going I do wonder if the rich donators might end up taking a pass in the end and just wait until 2016 when there is a better person to put money behind. Why waste it now when there is a very good chance Obama will still be re-elected. There has to be a point where the idea of just having any republican in the office becomes a bad one for those with all the money on the right.
 
RustyNails said:
Santorum is gonna pull a squeaker in Ohio. Calling it.
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Santorum shit the bed in six districts in Ohio and failed to get on the ballots there or something. He needs a total blowout to win at all, not to be behind Romney but within the margin of error in polling.

As it is, even if he wins the popular vote, he still doesn't win in delegates.

Someone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.
 
TestOfTide said:
It's still about the same amount that say their opinion hasn't changed (just above 60%). This is when basically the GOP primary contenders are showing the worst about each other and yet independents still aren't changing their minds that much.

And Romney hasn't been gaffing nearly as much during the debates anymore. Literally all of his gaffes have been "I have no conceptual grasp of my wealth." Social issues gaffes would be much more helpful to democrats.

And the primary is showing that even if the crazies don't like Romney they will eventually convince themselves to vote for him. Obama will need to find things that bring out a similar spark to democratic voters or the energy will die out by november.
Click to expand...

You are too pessimistic about voter enthusiasm, Obama will bring out the voters.

The only conceivable way Romney wins is if the economy tanks.

Also you are seriously comparing Romney vs GOP Loons to Romney vs Obama in debates, watch whenever Romney is challenged legitimately in debates and think 10x that when he finally takes on Obama. Not because Obama is a super being but because he is much more experienced in the process, he remains calm and will simply call out Romney on his being for and against everything.

Santorum, Gingrinch, and Paul set the groundwork for how to make Romney look horrible in a debate. Their main problem was each was at a severe disadvantage because of who they are.
 
Santorum is going to get DESTROYED in Ohio. The momentum shift here has been heavily Romney in the last week and I'd expect outside of southwest Ohio, Romney will do very well. The main driving force is the same as it was in Michigan: beat Obama by any means necessary.

Quick prediction:

Romney - 42
Santorum - 28
Paul - 16
Gingrich - 14
 
NihonTiger90 said:
Santorum is going to get DESTROYED in Ohio. The momentum shift here has been heavily Romney in the last week and I'd expect outside of southwest Ohio, Romney will do very well. The main driving force is the same as it was in Michigan: beat Obama by any means necessary.

Quick prediction:

Romney - 42
Santorum - 28
Paul - 16
Gingrich - 14
Click to expand...

I doubt he'll be destroyed, but I do see the late surge giving Romney a win. But it's worth noting that unlike Michigan, he won't have early voting to pad his numbers. Santorum still has a shot.

I think all these negative stories about the primary from mainstream and conservative media will convince republicans it's time to settle on Romney. Santorum essentially disqualified himself in a month, and Gingrich's campaign is only alive due to one man's money. I'm not sure Santorum is willing to drag this out if he loses big tonight. And while Gingrich may want to continue, his money bundler is already flirting with Romney.
 
Mike M said:
Santorum shit the bed in six districts in Ohio and failed to get on the ballots there or something. He needs a total blowout to win at all, not to be behind Romney but within the margin of error in polling.

As it is, even if he wins the popular vote, he still doesn't win in delegates.

Someone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.
Click to expand...

delegates don't matter.

Santorum and Romney split Michigan in delegates. The narrative is all about the popular vote and who "wins" the state.

The problem is that the energy has to last, which won't be easy since as soon as Romney gets nominated you will see much more negative ad focus on Obama.

That fact that the difference between better and worse among independents is so small right now worries me.
Click to expand...

The GOP has been running a non stop negative campaign against Obama since January of '09. At this point I'm willing to bet most independent voters are numb to it.
 
Going to be a fun night tonight and hard work starting tomorrow.
Thanks PoliGAF for the charts and graphs. You're credits to your country.
 
Invisible_Insane said:
Don't tell the Ron Paul supporters?
They're actually all that matters.
Click to expand...

No, really. Assume for a second that no one gets enough delegates to win outright. (If someone does, it's Romney anyway.)

If this goes to a brokered convention, then all delegates are released from their obligations and free to pick a new candidate. At THAT point, who won more delegates than who won't be relevant, it will be about who was able to carry swing states, energize the base, who has momentum, etc.

Delegate counts don't matter. Some caucuses were non-binding, and even the results of states like Virginia and Florida could be contested in court.
 
Door2Dawn said:
I don't care.
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Why the fuck wouldn't you care? Do you plan on making the same grammatical mistake in future posts, instead of acknowledging his correction and saying it properly next time? Or will you continue incorrect usage because 'you don't care'? What an absurd mentality.
 
Manmademan said:
No, really. Assume for a second that no one gets enough delegates to win outright. (If someone does, it's Romney anyway.)

If this goes to a brokered convention, then all delegates are released from their obligations and free to pick a new candidate. At THAT point, who won more delegates than who won't be relevant, it will be about who was able to carry swing states, energize the base, who has momentum, etc.

Delegate counts don't matter. Some caucuses were non-binding, and even the results of states like Virginia and Florida could be contested in court.
Click to expand...
Not necessarily true; the behavior of some delegates (and how they can vote in a first, second, or further ballots) is constrained by various state laws.
 
Invisible_Insane said:
Not necessarily true; the behavior of some delegates (and how they can vote in a first, second, or further ballots) is constrained by various state laws.
Click to expand...

In Tampa, on the night of the first ballot, Speaker John Boehner, who, according to the rules of the RNC will chair the convention, will announce the roll call of the states. At this point, each state will announce whom their delegates are voting for.

If none of the candidates wins the 1,144 delegate votes needed to clinch the nomination, Speaker Boehner will call for a second ballot. All of the delegates who were bound during the first vote based on their state primaries will be released to vote for whomever they please.

If the second ballot doesn’t produce a nominee, the voting will continue until someone wins.
Click to expand...

http://redalertpolitics.com/2012/02/how-would-a-contested-convention-actually-work/

that's where my info comes from, apologies if it's inaccurate.

However, State Laws are meaningless when it comes to how the DNC or RNC apportion delegates. this is why Florida lost 50% of their delegates this year, and ALL of their delegates in the 2008 Democratic Primary. State Law can move elections to whenever they like, but the Party has final say on delegate worth and apportionment- not the states.
 
Manmademan said:
http://redalertpolitics.com/2012/02/how-would-a-contested-convention-actually-work/

that's where my info comes from, apologies if it's inaccurate.

However, State Laws are meaningless when it comes to how the DNC or RNC apportion delegates. this is why Florida lost 50% of their delegates this year, and ALL of their delegates in the 2008 Democratic Primary. State Law can move elections to whenever they like, but the Party has final say on delegate worth and apportionment- not the states.
Click to expand...
I stand corrected.
 
Manmademan said:
No, really. Assume for a second that no one gets enough delegates to win outright. (If someone does, it's Romney anyway.)

If this goes to a brokered convention, then all delegates are released from their obligations and free to pick a new candidate. At THAT point, who won more delegates than who won't be relevant, it will be about who was able to carry swing states, energize the base, who has momentum, etc.

Delegate counts don't matter. Some caucuses were non-binding, and even the results of states like Virginia and Florida could be contested in court.
Click to expand...

Sorry delegates do matter. They are what matter more than anything else.

Edit: Okay looks like you are right because the GOP are a bunch of dopes.
 
Both matter. Delegates obviously matter when it comes time for the convention and shaping the platform. But, 'winning the state' matters because it can be a boost in momentum going into the next round of states.
 
mckmas8808 said:
Sorry delegates do matter. They are what matter more than anything else.
Click to expand...

I disagree (and my reasoning is above).

Hypothetical Situation:

the primary goes to a brokered convention, and Mitt Romney carried all the swing states (ohio, florida, virginia, north carolina, pennsylvania) and Santorum carried only republican strongholds (Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma, etc) Santorum has more delegates, but neither one has a majority.

Who would have the strongest argument for being the party nominee? Serious question.

My answer here would be (obviously) that Romney would, despite having fewer delegates he would obviously be the stronger candidate- since Santorum is only competitive in states republicans would carry regardless. Once the delegates are freed to vote as they please, it becomes more about who has the strongest argument for winning in november, not whose delegate count was higher (but not high enough for a majority.)


Obviously this primary is more complicated than my hypothetical (and you could easily substitute a catastrophic late game "herman cain" or "newt gingrich" like breakdown in support for the leading candidate instead of the swing state example I posted), but you see what I mean here. Swaying a delegate to change their vote is going to be centered around logical and emotional appeals about who is the stronger candidate- not the primary delegate count.
 
Manmademan said:
I disagree (and my reasoning is above).

Hypothetical Situation:

the primary goes to a brokered convention, and Mitt Romney carried all the swing states (ohio, florida, virginia, north carolina, pennsylvania) and Santorum carried only republican strongholds (Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma, etc) but Santorum had more delegates, but neither one has a majority.

Who would have the strongest argument for being the party nominee? Serious question.
Click to expand...


Yeah I seen your post from above. This situation can get crazy if Santorum stays in it.
 
markatisu said:
LOL Campaign Obama is going to be interesting to watch, since he is already President he is not going to walk on eggshells like in 2008.
Click to expand...

I think it's interesting, since literally any attack republicans could think of he's already dealt with during his first term- the GOP literally blew their load too early.

Combine that with the GOP's complete inability to realize when to shut the fuck up about the contraception thing, and Obama takes this in a walk- outside of something catastrophic happening with the economy between now and november.
 
mckmas8808 said:
Yeah I seen your post from above. This situation can get crazy if Santorum stays in it.
Click to expand...

I don't think it will. Santorum destroyed his campaign, he's finished. Staying in the race to win southern states and bloody Romney would only serve to kill any future political aspirations he might have as a republican.

There's no possible way the GOP will hand Santorum the nomination at a brokered convention, that's pure fantasy land. It will be Romney, or someone like Jeb Bush or Paul Ryan.

It's very likely this will essentially be over by midnight. Republicans have run out of Not-Romneys
 
PhoenixDark said:
I don't think it will. Santorum destroyed his campaign, he's finished. Staying in the race to win southern states and bloody Romney would only serve to kill any future political aspirations he might have as a republican.

There's no possible way the GOP will hand Santorum the nomination at a brokered convention, that's pure fantasy land. It will be Romney, or someone like Jeb Bush or Paul Ryan.

It's very likely this will essentially be over by midnight. Republicans have run out of Not-Romneys
Click to expand...

I'm inclined to agree. Santorum is losing appeal pretty rapidly. I can see him staying in it to become another Palin or Huckabee, making his career as a commentator, on books, speeches, etc- but I think the nomination is out of reach for him- outside of Romney being caught up in some kind of scandal of the month.

Still, if he and Gingrich are determined to stay in it, it's possible they'll rob enough votes between them to take it to convention where a Jeb Bush or Mitch Daniels might be nominated. one could also argue that Romney's inevitability could depress turnout in the remaining states- leaving ideologues and hard right conservatives at the polls who favor Santorum/Gingrich.

lol @ Paul Ryan though. That guy would get annihilated.
 
We're already seeing the make up process. Drudge and Fox were almost completely silent on the big news that Romney endorsed a national mandate. The fluff stories will start appearance to make the base feel comfortable and very soon this will be a 50-50 general election
 
PhoenixDark said:
I don't think it will. Santorum destroyed his campaign, he's finished. Staying in the race to win southern states and bloody Romney would only serve to kill any future political aspirations he might have as a republican.

There's no possible way the GOP will hand Santorum the nomination at a brokered convention, that's pure fantasy land. It will be Romney, or someone like Jeb Bush or Paul Ryan.

It's very likely this will essentially be over by midnight. Republicans have run out of Not-Romneys
Click to expand...

I don't really think Santorum wants to be a politician, he is disorganized and has really only one agenda (a faith based one) that he knows will never be implemented

I honestly think he saw an opportunity to become like Gingrinch, Huckabee, and Palin and took it. If he hurt Romney along the way that is the GOP's fault for essentially picking such a crappy candidate
We're already seeing the make up process. Drudge and Fox were almost completely silent on the big news that Romney endorsed a national mandate. The fluff stories will start appearance to make the base feel comfortable and very soon this will be a 50-50 general election
Click to expand...

Keep the funny coming, the base GOP is not the ones who need convincing to vote its the independents and the moderate GOP that the current GOP has thrown away

50-50 my ass, if Santorum and Gingrinch can bloody Romney I hate to see what the coming months have setup for him an a non-crazy opponent
 
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