PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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hydragonwarrior said:
Although Obama can try to educate the populace, the price of oil might be a very difficult thing for him to deal with. Who thinks this will affect his ability to be re-elected?
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It already is, and he is once again proving to be poor at communicating when necessary.

Economic confidence is at a 4 year high...
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/gallup-economic-confidence-ticks-up-to-four-year

..yet multiple polls show his numbers cratering over the last week. That shows that he has quite the weak floor on his polling numbers He always retains around 40-41% but that other 9-10% is in constant flux. What does that say about the strength of Obama's candidacy with less than 8 months to go? Furthermore, what's going to happen in a few months as unemployment ticks up and gas prices remain high?

We're one crisis away from another retracted jobs growth period, and if Obama's numbers aren't above water during (relatively) good economic times, how does anyone expect things to be better when things get worse? Last year job growth was pretty good from Jan-March, then Japan had it's earthquake. And then the Arab Spring, and then the Eurozone crisis followed by the debt ceiling debacle. The only difference will be that Romney will be flooding the airwaves with negative ads, all of which will highlight Obama's inability to get the UE rate below 8%.
 
PhoenixDark said:
It already is, and he is once again proving to be poor at communicating when necessary.

Economic confidence is at a 4 year high...
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/gallup-economic-confidence-ticks-up-to-four-year

..yet multiple polls show his numbers cratering over the last week. That shows that he has quite the weak floor on his polling numbers He always retains around 40-41% but that other 9-10% is in constant flux. What does that say about the strength of Obama's candidacy with less than 8 months to go? Furthermore, what's going to happen in a few months as unemployment ticks up and gas prices remain high?

We're one crisis away from another retracted jobs growth period, and if Obama's numbers aren't above water during (relatively) good economic times, how does anyone expect things to be better when things get worse? Last year job growth was pretty good from Jan-March, then Japan had it's earthquake. And then the Arab Spring, and then the Eurozone crisis followed by the debt ceiling debacle. The only difference will be that Romney will be flooding the airwaves with negative ads, all of which will highlight Obama's inability to get the UE rate below 8%.
Click to expand...


So in the mean time what will Obama be doing in response to Romney? Sitting there just looking at him?
 
PhoenixDark said:
It already is, and he is once again proving to be poor at communicating when necessary.

Economic confidence is at a 4 year high...
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/gallup-economic-confidence-ticks-up-to-four-year

..yet multiple polls show his numbers cratering over the last week. That shows that he has quite the weak floor on his polling numbers He always retains around 40-41% but that other 9-10% is in constant flux. What does that say about the strength of Obama's candidacy with less than 8 months to go? Furthermore, what's going to happen in a few months as unemployment ticks up and gas prices remain high?
Click to expand...

Multiple Polls? That is stretching it.

ONE POLL, the CBS/NYT shows a big dip. The WaPO/ABC Poll has it fluctuating within their margin of error.

Gallup still has him up in their daily tracking.

AND...PPP Numbers for Penn are IN!

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/03/obama-doing-better-in-pennsylvania.html

Barack Obama's numbers in Pennsylvania are the best they've been in 10 PPP polls of the state taken since he was elected President. He now leads Mitt Romney by a 7 point margin in the state, 49-42.
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Also, the PPP Poll for DKos shows Obama Approval Holding steady

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/...sn-t-falling-Obama-bounces-upward?detail=hide

And, NC Numbers are next for Obama

PublicPolicyPolling ‏ @ppppolls Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Obama did very well on our Pennsylvania and North Carolina polls over the weekend. Not buying the drop.
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PhoenixDark said:
It already is, and he is once again proving to be poor at communicating when necessary.

Economic confidence is at a 4 year high...
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/gallup-economic-confidence-ticks-up-to-four-year

..yet multiple polls show his numbers cratering over the last week. That shows that he has quite the weak floor on his polling numbers He always retains around 40-41% but that other 9-10% is in constant flux. What does that say about the strength of Obama's candidacy with less than 8 months to go? Furthermore, what's going to happen in a few months as unemployment ticks up and gas prices remain high?

We're one crisis away from another retracted jobs growth period, and if Obama's numbers aren't above water during (relatively) good economic times, how does anyone expect things to be better when things get worse? Last year job growth was pretty good from Jan-March, then Japan had it's earthquake. And then the Arab Spring, and then the Eurozone crisis followed by the debt ceiling debacle. The only difference will be that Romney will be flooding the airwaves with negative ads, all of which will highlight Obama's inability to get the UE rate below 8%.
Click to expand...
PPP's tracking for DailyKos has his national approval trending up to 48/49, with positive favorable ratings at 48/47. Gallup had him at 49% yesterday, which dropped to the still positive 47/46. Even Rasmussen has him getting back up - he's at 49/51 today.

The only reason those two polls were getting so much attention is because the media wants to push the "Gas prices will sink Obama" narrative. The ABC poll, which had him at 46-50, absolutely overlaps with the margin of error of their last poll, which had those numbers reversed at 50-46. The CBS poll (the one with him at 41%? yeah that) is a bit more worrying, but it's also the most pessimistic of any of them by a decent margin, and it's worth noting that both these polls had larger Republican samples than their previous ones.

Point is, what the fuck man.

ED: Cartoon soldier beat me to the punch. I didn't even mention the PPP numbers from Pennsylvania, which always painted a gloomy picture for Obama, and now he's leading Romney by 7.

mckmas8808 said:
So in the mean time what will Obama be doing in response to Romney? Sitting there just looking at him?
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I think it's funny how people who are down on Obama's chances say "Well, Romney's going to attack Obama!" as if Obama's record and person have never been attacked before. Does nobody remember 2008? I guess the assumption is that Obama's not going to campaign at all until election day?

I'm of the mind that barring some major fuck-up, Obama's approvals aren't going to get much worse than they are now, which still tilts the presidential race in his direction.

Bee tee dubs, gas prices are going to fall throughout the summer/fall like they always do. Get a grip, duuudes.
 
Wilsongt said:
Maybe people like Christie's personality? I mean, he's definitely not my idea of a politician in terms of actually being more laid back and less politically correct, as demonstration by that video from earlier in the week.
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The percentage of people who also think NJ is "headed in the right direction" is abnormally high, even though the state isn't showing an amazing rate of growth.

Also, as posted before, the PAC money and media hype is proclaiming Christie as doing a great job even though he is not doing a great job. Yet, Obama is never getting this benefit of a doubt.
 
mckmas8808 said:
These are the type of commericals Obama should be running when the GE starts.

"U.S. Oil Production is Up: President Obama's Energy Record"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LG0evk8Iad8&feature=relmfu


"Foreign Oil Dependence is Down: President Obama's Energy Record"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4-SNGaYFYk&feature=relmfu


It's fast, understandable, and it has charts.
Click to expand...

Short Versions of the ACA Videos (used as ads) are there too. Someone was asking how they would run ads defending ACA yesterday.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tr8JoQiTygY&feature=youtu.be
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VuxZnhlr89I&feature=youtu.be
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WOs-CLDUno&feature=youtu.be
 
JimWood27 said:
I expected his interview on The Daily Show last night to be more hostile than it was even though Stewart basically told him that his pledge has absolutely no basis in reality about half a dozen times. I suppose he is used to it.
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The most telling thing that I found in that interview was how civil and professional Jon was in that interview. It really speaks to his credibility how even though you could tell that Jon was against pretty much EVERYTHING that Grover stood for he still prioritized fair and even balanced discourse.

Something that almost NEVER happens whenever Jon is a guest on the shows of his political opposites.
 
Aaron Strife said:
Does nobody remember 2008? I guess the assumption is that Obama's not going to campaign at all until election day? .
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The way the GOP is running their presidential campaigns it seems 2008 never happened, that is the only way I can rationalize the way they are redoing almost all their 2008 attacks and just replacing key words untested and inexperienced with something else
 
I see it's that time of the month to freak out again. Two facts:

1. Short of catastrophe, nobody can beat Obama in 2012.
2. Even with #1 considered, it will still be close. We could see another electoral landslide even though the popular vote could be as close as 4-6 points.

But seriously. It won't be fucking close, not now, not ever. I imagine those trying to talk themselves into Romney are the same saps trying to imagine a world with a Kerry Presidency. The writing is on the wall people, pack this one up and focus on 2016.
 
PantherLotus said:
I see it's that time of the month to freak out again. Two facts:

1. Short of catastrophe, nobody can beat Obama in 2012.
2. Even with #1 considered, it will still be close. We could see another electoral landslide even though the popular vote could be as close as 4-6 points.

But seriously. It won't be fucking close, not now, not ever. I imagine those trying to talk themselves into Romney are the same saps trying to imagine a world with a Kerry Presidency. The writing is on the wall people, pack this one up and focus on 2016.
Click to expand...

Eh, Kerry came within a few thousand votes of winning. Ohio fucked it up. Or Ken Blackwell, if you believe that sort of stuff
 
JimWood27 said:
I expected his interview on The Daily Show last night to be more hostile than it was even though Stewart basically told him that his pledge has absolutely no basis in reality about half a dozen times. I suppose he is used to it.
Click to expand...

I loved Jon's comment on Reagan. Basically, G.N. was stuttering, and he said since Reagan didn't sign the pledge, it was ok for him to increase taxes.
 
gcubed said:
anyway re: US/Europe vs China in rare earth minerals... aren't we supposed to have a pretty good supply off of our shores? Why don't we mine them?
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Aside from the sagacious "chicken little" theory, it's a matter of political economy. The Chinese have an abundance of high-quality REEs coupled with cheap labor and lax environmental regulation. It was economical to export production. Global demand has only recently made REE extraction an economical endeavor in the U.S. First, we should begin mining REEs by the end of this year when the Mountain Pass mine finishes its modernization process. Regarding additional development, I'm unaware of any off-shore reserves. Nonetheless, we possess an abundant REE endowment second only to China; the image below displays potential REE reserves in the U.S. Again, the problem is our political economy. The feasibility of additional mines is unknown as few of the potential reserves have been evaluated, and REE mining is an intensive, complex process. Additionally, the probability of oppositional litigation is high. Altogether, the uncertainty over feasibility conjoined with the intensive, complex process and the likelihood of litigation leaves few firms willing to exploit the resource.

nGBvQ.jpg
 
PantherLotus said:
I see it's that time of the month to freak out again. Two facts:

1. Short of catastrophe, nobody can beat Obama in 2012.
2. Even with #1 considered, it will still be close. We could see another electoral landslide even though the popular vote could be as close as 4-6 points.

But seriously. It won't be fucking close, not now, not ever. I imagine those trying to talk themselves into Romney are the same saps trying to imagine a world with a Kerry Presidency. The writing is on the wall people, pack this one up and focus on 2016.
Click to expand...

So you're saying people concerned about instability in the Eurozone, a slowdown in China, or hot hostilities with Iran are being unreasonable? What are you considering a "catastrophe?"
 
PantherLotus said:
I see it's that time of the month to freak out again. Two facts:

1. Short of catastrophe, nobody can beat Obama in 2012.
2. Even with #1 considered, it will still be close. We could see another electoral landslide even though the popular vote could be as close as 4-6 points.

But seriously. It won't be fucking close, not now, not ever. I imagine those trying to talk themselves into Romney are the same saps trying to imagine a world with a Kerry Presidency. The writing is on the wall people, pack this one up and focus on 2016.
Click to expand...
I could see Romney winning but I wouldn't be willing to bet on it. I still consider Obama the favorite.
 
PhoenixDark said:
Eh, Kerry came within a few thousand votes of winning. Ohio fucked it up. Or Ken Blackwell, if you believe that sort of stuff
Click to expand...
Economic accounts of voting are useful for explaining vote share but not the intricacies of the EC. Kerry lost by over 2% irrespective of Ohio's margin. Bush was the favorite given the moderate growth preceding the election. And I'd concur with PL that we should experience similar results this election. Obama is the favorite given moderate growth, but the margin should be slight. I think 2-3% is a reasonable prediction.
 
lyfR3.jpg


Shit like this man.

The delusion some people have that this nation is to be considered a Christian nation when that very labeling of it goes against everything it was founded for.

I don't mind the In God We Trust on our money enough for a major push to get it returned to E pluribus unum, but if it will help put down this twisted view of our country, then might as well.
 
Who is that supposed to be crying in the bottom right? Or the top left, for that matter.
And is the cloaked figure center right supposed to be Death? Or am I just seeing things?
 
EskimoJoe said:
Who is that supposed to be crying in the bottom right? Or the top left, for that matter.
And is the cloaked figure center right supposed to be Death? Or am I just seeing things?
Click to expand...

No idea. The pic presented itself in the pics that dont make you laugh but are cool thread.

Looks like all the business people and media are suppose to be the bad guys here. Not sure. Either way, the point I was trying to make is this bullshit that America is supposed to be a Christian nation founded on Christian beliefs.
 
EskimoJoe said:
Who is that supposed to be crying in the bottom right? Or the top left, for that matter.
And is the cloaked figure center right supposed to be Death? Or am I just seeing things?
Click to expand...

the figure on the right is Satan. I live in Utah and this fucking picture shows up everywhere.

I fucking hate it.

here is another one by the same artist.

the_forgotten_man.jpg
 
JetBlackPanda said:
the figure on the right is Satan. I live in Utah and this fucking picture shows up everywhere.

I fucking hate it.

here is another one by the same artist.

the_forgotten_man.jpg
Click to expand...

I've never understood this one. One could argue that Obama's health care reform has done more for the poor/middle-class American than any other president in history.
 
Plinko said:
I've never understood this one. One could argue that Obama's health care reform has done more for the poor/middle-class American than any other president in history.
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But people obviously don't know that. They do however believe it's something terrible that should be destroyed.
 
RustyNails said:
None of those things are gonna happen dude.
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"Instability in the Eurozone" isn't happening?

I certainly hope cooler heads prevail with respect to Iran, but I don't see much reason to be confident that they will.

edit: that's not to say that I think war will definitely happen with Iran, just that I think your confidence that it won't is misplaced.
 
Invisible_Insane said:
"Instability in the Eurozone" isn't happening?

I certainly hope cooler heads prevail with respect to Iran, but I don't see much reason to be confident that they will.

edit: that's not to say that I think war will definitely happen with Iran, just that I think your confidence that it won't is misplaced.
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There was some sort of deal on Greek bonds. It definitely won't solve the issue but it might be enough to punt it for a year or so.


I still maintain that nothing will happen with Iran . . . things will just go on as is. We have no appetite for another war. The Israeli public doesn't want Iran attacked. If Israel does attack then Hezbollah may start raining missiles on them and they don't want that. The Iran situation mostly seems a stalemate. I think the world will just keep having the IAEA climb up Iran's ass and Iranian nuke scientists may occasionally have "accidents".
 
speculawyer said:
There was some sort of deal on Greek bonds. It definitely won't solve the issue but it might be enough to punt it for a year or so.


I still maintain that nothing will happen with Iran . . . things will just go on as is. We have no appetite for another war. The Israeli public doesn't want Iran attacked. If Israel does attack then Hezbollah may start raining missiles on them and they don't want that. The Iran situation mostly seems a stalemate. I think the world will just keep having the IAEA climb up Iran's ass and Iranian nuke scientists may occasionally have "accidents".
Click to expand...

There's some sort of deal on Greek bonds every three months at this point. I was listening to Marketplace a couple of days ago and one of the commentators was expressing concern that other countries with high debt would begin agitating for Greek-style debt-writedowns, which might set off another panic... we may find that markets are just as afraid of the cure as they are of the disease, and in any case, I think the Greek situation is far from resolved.

Clearly if there's a lesson we should take from the past ten years of warfare, it's that what the public wants, it gets. {eye roll} Like I said, I'm not saying that hostilities with Iran are a certainty, just that I will not be surprised if stupidity prevails.
 
Oblivion said:
He also said that he always supported the payroll tax cut, which shows he's full of (more) shit:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/norquist-says-payroll-tax-cut-expiration-isn-t-a-tax-hike-20111201
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Stewart even softly called him on this, asking him something like, "If I go back and check, it will show you always supported it?"

Edit: Ah, reading your link more closely it's just Norquist providing an out for freshman Reps who want to vote against it. Norquist seems to be in favor of it.
 
Plinko said:
I've never understood this one. One could argue that Obama's health care reform has done more for the poor/middle-class American than any other president in history.
Click to expand...

they also have to be intellectually bankrupt to think the republicans of Lincoln have anything to do with the republicans of today
 
thatbox said:
Edit: Ah, reading your link more closely it's just Norquist providing an out for freshman Reps who want to vote against it. Norquist seems to be in favor of it.
Click to expand...

Right, but the fact that he had to pre-emptively damage control speaks for itself. He would NEVER have said that shit for the Bush tax cuts. I'm sure he wouldn't lose any sleep if the payroll tax cut expired, he just wanted to play it safe.
 
what the hell? gone for a few months and this thread is banished to the community section?

at least the Lucille gifs are inviting.
 
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