PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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Black Mamba said:
The media narrative killed him. It explains why pols turned sorry Friday instead of Thursday. I can't remember he media like that. If the idiotic liberals knew how to support their own I bet there wouldn't be a bounce.
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no
Obama didn't show up, period. Even if democrats pretended like he won, polls would show otherwise and the media would focus on that.

Aaron is right. Everyone else stepped up to the plate except Obama. That's a problem
 
Diablos said:
That 66% was 87% on the 4th, and if Obama can't figure out a way to stop the bleeding it's going to drop even more. And so far, polling has indicated that Romney is finding himself in a stronger position by the day.

And frankly any election that is going to be decided by either one or two states is totally in "up for grabs" territory, i.e. 2004.


Drive up to your local news stations and tell them they need to do some god damn polling!
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How far do you think he's going to drop? These numbers won't free-fall. It's just not possible. Romney pulled the debate of his life. He got his base fired up AND he got a lot of indies to flip towards him. How much further do you think he can go? The ones who didn't flip are happy with Obama or are part of Obama's base.

You can GIVE Romney every state that Obama has less than a 66% chance of winning and Romney still loses.
Stinkles said:
It sounds like a bigger lead than it is. If it were 66% of voters, that would be a nice solid inescapable victory. But put it this way, if you had a 66% chance of calling heads on a coin toss, would you bet your job on that coin toss?
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For no reason, of course not. If you told me I had a 99% chance of calling heads on a coin toss, I still wouldn't bet my job on it. What's my incentive to bet my job on a percent when I can just keep it?

If you said there's a 66% chance I'd get a better job with less hours and more pay vs a 33% chance I'd get a worse job with more hours and less pay, I'd do it ten times out of ten. I gamble a lot at the casinos and spend a lot of time learning best ways to maximize expected value (poker, counting cards in blackjack, playing maximum payout video poker). This is Romney's peak. I'm not scared of a candidate who peaks at 33%.
 
PhoenixDark said:
no
Obama didn't show up, period. Even if democrats pretended like he won, polls would show otherwise and the media would focus on that.

Aaron is right. Everyone else stepped up to the plate except Obama. That's a problem
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Maybe he should just state his opinion and walk out the next debate.

There is no point in him standing up on national television "debating" someone when he has more important things to worry about.

I think people who respect that. Call out the sham that is presidential debates and put and end to them forever.
 
PhoenixDark said:
no
Obama didn't show up, period. Even if democrats pretended like he won, polls would show otherwise and the media would focus on that.

Aaron is right. Everyone else stepped up to the plate except Obama. That's a problem
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No way. The delay proves it. After a day of getting trounced people believed it. Sure there be a small initial bounce but without the narrative the people leanin Obama would firmly stay here
 
Aaron Strife said:
I hate to say it but PD's right. I don't even think Obama's performance was that bad, but everyone else stepped up when they needed to. Who honestly expected Biden to blow Ryan out of the water? Who thought Clinton would give such an impassioned defense of Obama and the Democratic ideal?
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Everybody?
 
HylianTom said:
If anything, we may very well be looking at an electoral-popular split. It's looking more and more likely as time goes by, I think.

.
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You know what is creeping into my mind as a possibility? 269-269. Obviously incredibly unlikely, but I could see a scenario where Romney gets a late surge and wins most swing states but Obama holds on in Ohio because of early voting.
 
SmokeMaxX said:
If you said there's a 66% chance I'd get a better job with less hours and more pay vs a 33% chance I'd get a worse job with more hours and less pay, I'd do it ten times out of ten. I gamble a lot at the casinos and spend a lot of time learning best ways to maximize expected value (poker, counting cards in blackjack, playing maximum payout video poker). This is Romney's peak. I'm not scared of a candidate who peaks at 33%.
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Good ol' Prospect Theory. Takes me back to part of my Master's thesis.
 
PhoenixDark said:
no
Obama didn't show up, period. Even if democrats pretended like he won, polls would show otherwise and the media would focus on that.

Aaron is right. Everyone else stepped up to the plate except Obama. That's a problem
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It's one thing to lose, it's another thing to lose and look completely unprepared, and not quite looking like a sitting President. So he turned away some undecideds, disappointed the base and fired up the GOP. If it was more of a simple loss -- i.e. still being prepared but under-performing his challenger -- I think we wouldn't even be talking about this right now.

I mean, really, Obama had so much going into this: tons of Democrats including Bill Clinton giving him a huge bounce from the DNC, an entire month of Mitt Romney's campaign completely wasted and tarnishing his credibility with voters, and even if minimal, some real signs that the employment situation in this country is improving. Had Obama just showed up, even if he still ended up "losing", it would've been okay.

I'm still flabbergasted as to why he didn't bring up the 47% remarks. Talk about a freebie. That gaffe speaks for itself, you can't undo it.
 
SmokeMaxX said:
Everybody?
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Biden was being set up to fail. I was expecting a tie at best.

The Clinton stuff was all unfounded but there was a pretty strong right-wing meme that he was going to wink-wink-nudge-nudge his way through the speech to shit on Obama and build himself up.

Something good: The IDP/TIPP tracker now shows Obama with a lead, albeit by only .7. Romney was up 5 in this poll earlier.
 
Man, those 538 numbers keep dropping. Romney has gone from a 12% chance pre-debate to now a 34% chance and has picked up 31 projected electoral votes (a 62 vote swing, since they come away from Obama). Obama also down to 50% vs. 48.9% in the popular vote prediction.

Obama als now only a lock in 10 states: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

I haven't been following RCP that much, so not sure how big of a drop that is.

Panic?
 
Black Mamba said:
No way. The delay proves it. After a day of getting trounced people believed it. Sure there be a small initial bounce but without the narrative the people leanin Obama would firmly stay here
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PD's point is that Obama allowed the media to have the narrative of a Romnmey comeback that they so badly wanted
 
schuelma said:
You know what is creeping into my mind as a possibility? 269-269. Obviously incredibly unlikely, but I could see a scenario where Romney gets a late surge and wins most swing states but Obama holds on in Ohio because of early voting.
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Oh goody, the SC deciding 2 elections within 12 years of each other.
 
Aaron Strife said:
Biden was being set up to fail. I was expecting a tie at best.

The Clinton stuff was all unfounded but there was a pretty strong right-wing meme that he was going to wink-wink-nudge-nudge his way through the speech to shit on Obama and build himself up.

Something good: The IDP/TIPP tracker now shows Obama with a lead, albeit by only .7. Romney was up 5 in this poll earlier.
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IDP/TIPP? The poll where everyone was like "WTF is this crap"? With a sample of 500 voters?
Meh.
 
Aaron Strife said:
Biden was being set up to fail. I was expecting a tie at best.

The Clinton stuff was all unfounded but there was a pretty strong right-wing meme that he was going to wink-wink-nudge-nudge his way through the speech to shit on Obama and build himself up.

Something good: The IDP/TIPP tracker now shows Obama with a lead, albeit by only .7. Romney was up 5 in this poll earlier.
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So, it went O-1, O-5, O-1, O+1?

Did they only interview one person on that O-5 day and it was Jack Welch, maybe?
 
quadriplegicjon said:
Nobody thought Biden was going to blow Ryan out of the water, everyone was hoping he wouldn't make any major gaffes, and that's pretty much it.
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XenodudeX said:
No one.
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Are you guys kidding me? The only thing Ryan has is a higher "likeability" factor. Biden has experience, facts, and knowledge. He's also a sharp politician who has an "edge" about him. I was definitely hoping Biden wouldn't screw up especially with what happened to Obama, but I thought everyone knew Biden would mop the floor with Ryan. What the hell does Ryan bring to the table besides "likeability"? It sure ain't economics, foreign policy, or social issues.
 
It's misleading to suggest Romney's bounce is solely based on the fact he "won" or the media narrative. Rather it's likely that one reason is that Obama had a lot of soft support; voters who weren't happy with economy or perhaps some of Obama's policies, but found Romney just too unlikeable, particularly after 47% comments. The debate was a venue for him to make himself a tolerable alternative in the eyes of these people.

E: Tipp has always been trash and known for its extreme volatility
 
Dreamcaster said:
Man, those 538 numbers keep dropping. Romney has gone from a 12% chance pre-debate to now a 34% chance and has picked up 31 projected electoral votes (a 62 vote swing, since they come away from Obama). Obama also down to 50% vs. 48.9% in the popular vote prediction.

Obama als now only a lock in 10 states: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

I haven't been following RCP that much, so not sure how big of a drop that is.

Panic?
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Romney is only a lock for 13 states which total 76 EV's, which is basically equal to California and Illinois (75 EV's)
 
Dreamcaster said:
Man, those 538 numbers keep dropping. Romney has gone from a 12% chance pre-debate to now a 34% chance and has picked up 31 projected electoral votes (a 62 vote swing, since they come away from Obama). Obama also down to 50% vs. 48.9% in the popular vote prediction.

Obama als now only a lock in 10 states: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

I haven't been following RCP that much, so not sure how big of a drop that is.

Panic?
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The now-cast in particular makes me feel nauseous.

D0qFq.jpg
 
Kusagari said:
I've never understood this.

The senate deciding the president makes far more sense if you're going to split it like that.
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It makes sense to me. VP is the president of the senate. The House is directly representative of the American people, or is supposed to be (lol gerrymandering).
 
SmokeMaxX said:
Are you guys kidding me? The only thing Ryan has is a higher "likeability" factor. Biden has experience, facts, and knowledge. He's also a sharp politician who has an "edge" about him. I was definitely hoping Biden wouldn't screw up especially with what happened to Obama, but I thought everyone knew Biden would mop the floor with Ryan. What the hell does Ryan bring to the table besides "likeability"? It sure ain't economics, foreign policy, or social issues.
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That is some revisionism. Look back through this thread, try and find some pre-debate articles. Even the day of the election CNN devoted lots of time into how awesome Ryan is, how young, and energies, how he has been carrying a heavy briefcase with him full if debate material, how he had been practicing since he was chosen, he he is a policy wonk and incredible with numbers. Meanwhile, the little they talked about Biden was usually to mention how he lost to Palin in '08
 
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