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[lunchwithyuzo]

No, the opposite, I'm expecting exactly that, which even though is better than the Wii situation makes it difficult for an individual to buy a Wii U instead of a PS3 or 3dsxl when they are cheaper and have those same games, a bigger library and even cheaper used games available. These factors will play against the Wii u becoming the dominant platform in japan.

PS3/3DS won't have NSMBU, Wii Fit U, DQX, Nintendo Land, etc. The majority of 3rd party games going multi only hurts PlayStation in a direct match up, which is why Iwata's pushing for that.

It is going to look much like 3DS/PSP, with multiplatform games doing better on the entrenched PS3 initially, but over time you'll see that shift as Wii U gains momemtum and PS4 likely stumbles out the gates. This is so obviously Iwata's playbook, let's see if he pulls it off...

 

[H_Prestige]

Monster Hunter HD : porting
Ninja Gaiden 3 : porting
Warriors Orochi 2 : porting
Batman AA : porting
AssCreed 3 : multi
CoD:BOPS 2 : multi
Tekken Tag 2 : multi
FIFA 13 : multi
ZombiU : exclusive
Sport Connection : exclusive

wow, a great 3rd party line-up indeed...
and i feel that, except for MonHunHD, all those titles will sell very little

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. Only MH is a big deal. Everything else besides zombiu not only has a ps3 version, but also has little appeal in Japan to begin with.

PS3/3DS won't have NSMBU, Wii Fit U, DQX, Nintendo Land, etc. The majority of 3rd party games going multi only hurts PlayStation in a direct match up, which is why Iwata's pushing for that.

It is going to look much like 3DS/PSP, with multiplatform games doing better on the entrenched PS3 initially, but over time you'll see that shift as Wii U gains momemtum and PS4 likely stumbles out the gates. This is so obviously Iwata's playbook, let's see if he pulls it off...

So you're assuming Wii Fit U will have the same selling power as the Wii version? And that Nintendo Land will be a similar hit as Wii Sports? Because it would have to for the system to sell more than the Wii.

DQX is a late port of a Wii MMO. Despite the brand, it's not going to push many units.

Wii U third party can't be better than what the ps3 got this gen, simply because of multiplatform. PS3 avoided that problem in Japan because 360 is dead and the Wii wasn't strong enough, so it's third party games were effectively exclusive.

 

[schuelma]

Monster Hunter HD : porting
Ninja Gaiden 3 : porting
Warriors Orochi 2 : porting
Batman AA : porting
AssCreed 3 : multi
CoD:BOPS 2 : multi
Tekken Tag 2 : multi
FIFA 13 : multi
ZombiU : exclusive
Sport Connection : exclusive

wow, a great 3rd party line-up indeed...
and i feel that, except for MonHunHD, all those titles will sell very little

I agree with you that if you take out Monster Hunter it isn't anything special as a launch lineup.

But Monster Hunter from a sales perspective makes it a better launch lineup than Wii, PS3, 3DS, DS, and PSP*

*Unless you think MH 3G HD is only going to sell like 200K

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Monster Hunter HD : porting
Ninja Gaiden 3 : porting
Warriors Orochi 2 : porting
Batman AA : porting
AssCreed 3 : multi
CoD:BOPS 2 : multi
Tekken Tag 2 : multi
FIFA 13 : multi
ZombiU : exclusive
Sport Connection : exclusive

wow, a great 3rd party line-up indeed...
and i feel that, except for MonHunHD, all those titles will sell very little

You should really take a moment and look back at previous 3rd party launch lineups in Japan. Are Driving Emotion Type S and SFEX3 really more compelling than upgraded ports of DQX and MH3G? Is an iffy DOA2 port really better than a massively improved NG3 port? TTT1 vs TTT2? And that's the mighty PS2, it just gets worse for GC, PS3, Wii, etc...

 

[Hero]

How much does the ps3 sell per year over there? About a million? Can't see Wii U selling more than that. Figure it will be on the market about 6 years. So I guess maybe 6-7 million is more realistic, but still less than the Wii, and way less than the ps2, which was like 20 million or something.

The home console leader has gone down significantly this gen, no reason to assume the trend won't continue into next gen.

It absolutely astounds me that you can try to post in this thread with some kind of authoritative attitude when you can't even be bothered to do such simple math. The PS3 has sold 8.58 million units LTD in Japan as of last week. The PS3 came out in 2006, we are one week away from the actual 6th anniversary of the system in Japan. Take the LTD units and divide by the number of years the system has been out and we get an average of 1.43 million units per year for the PS3.

So now that's out of the way, let's move on. You still expect the Wii U to sell a LTD of 6-7 million, which is LESS than even the PS3 has done this generation. The PS3, which launched at an incredibly overpriced, ridiculously stupid level and had lackluster games for quite a while and all the problems it had, is going to sell more than Wii U? If you truly believe that, then perhaps it is time to stop posting about sales projections.

No, the opposite, I'm expecting exactly that, which even though is better than the Wii situation makes it difficult for an individual to buy a Wii U instead of a PS3 or 3dsxl when they are cheaper and have those same games, a bigger library and even cheaper used games available. These factors will play against the Wii u becoming the dominant platform in japan.

This is logical fallacy here, nobody has said that the Wii U is going to dominate over the 3DS.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. Only MH is a big deal. Everything else besides zombiu not only has a ps3 version, but also has little appeal in Japan to begin with.

If MH3G is the standard, then it's the only big deal 3rd party console launch game in Japanese history. NOTHING comes close to it, not on SFC, not on PS1, not on PS2, not on anything.

So you're assuming Wii Fit U will have the same selling power as the Wii version? And that Nintendo Land will be a similar hit as Wii Sports? Because it would have to for the system to sell more than the Wii.

DQX is a late port of a Wii MMO. Despite the brand, it's not going to push many units.

Wii U third party can't be better than what the ps3 got this gen, simply because of multiplatform. PS3 avoided that problem in Japan because 360 is dead and the Wii wasn't strong enough, so it's third party games were effectively exclusive.

PS3 didn't have Dragon Quest. Wii U gets FF and it's over, PS4 is Vita'd.

Sequels to stuff like Wii Fit and NSMB don't even have to match their Wii predecessors to massively outperform PS3 software. Even half as much still outperforms what virtually all PS3 games managed, these are HUGE games.

 

[thehypocrite]

PS3/3DS won't have NSMBU, Wii Fit U, DQX, Nintendo Land, etc. The majority of 3rd party games going multi only hurts PlayStation in a direct match up, which is why Iwata's pushing for that.

It is going to look much like 3DS/PSP, with multiplatform games doing better on the entrenched PS3 initially, but over time you'll see that shift as Wii U gains momemtum and PS4 likely stumbles out the gates. This is so obviously Iwata's playbook, let's see if he pulls it off...

Ahh the assumptions about unknown quantities argument, we have no idea how PS4 will perform. I don't see what you've presented above as conducive to the Wii U becoming the dominant platform, this strategy can even backfire with the Wii U sustaining the PS3 with ports longer than what would make sense businesses wise to Nintendo, PS3 could always undercut it in price and with a greater library/used games available. Also 3ds also has NSMB and MH3 and MH4, thinking it won't put pressure on a console whose most distinct feature is off TV play is unrealistic. They are competing against each other in japan.

I agree with you that if you take out Monster Hunter it isn't anything special as a launch lineup.

But Monster Hunter from a sales perspective makes it a better launch lineup than Wii, PS3, 3DS, DS, and PSP*

*Unless you think MH 3G HD is only going to sell like 200K

Is better than 3ds and PS3 and Wii, however those platforms are already established in the market, they aren't launching so that's not the comparison you need to make, is how unique it is in comparison to the established platforms. In my eyes it isn't distinct enough to be conducive to dominance.

 

[H_Prestige]

It absolutely astounds me that you can try to post in this thread with some kind of authoritative attitude when you can't even be bothered to do such simple math. The PS3 has sold 8.58 million units LTD in Japan as of last week. The PS3 came out in 2006, we are one week away from the actual 6th anniversary of the system in Japan. Take the LTD units and divide by the number of years the system has been out and we get an average of 1.43 million units per year for the PS3.

Err, aren't you agreeing with me here? I said about million, because I could have sworn that's the YTD for the last couple of years. So the average across the entire lifecycle is 1.4? Yeah, I guess I was way off with that one...

So now that's out of the way, let's move on. You still expect the Wii U to sell a LTD of 6-7 million, which is LESS than even the PS3 has done this generation. The PS3, which launched at an incredibly overpriced, ridiculously stupid level and had lackluster games for quite a while and all the problems it had, is going to sell more than Wii U? If you truly believe that, then perhaps it is time to stop posting about sales projections.

Yes. And no, the ps3 obviously didn't have lackluster games for the japanese market, otherwise it wouldn't have sold over 8 million and still be selling, despite its high price. I'm not sure what you mean by "all the other problems it had going for it".

 

[OldJadedGamer]

Monster Hunter HD : porting
Ninja Gaiden 3 : porting
Warriors Orochi 2 : porting
Batman AA : porting
AssCreed 3 : multi
CoD:BOPS 2 : multi
Tekken Tag 2 : multi
FIFA 13 : multi
ZombiU : exclusive
Sport Connection : exclusive

wow, a great 3rd party line-up indeed...
and i feel that, except for MonHunHD, all those titles will sell very little

Since half of those are Western titles, of course they will sell very little in Japan.

You should really take a moment and look back at previous 3rd party launch lineups in Japan. Are Driving Emotion Type S and SFEX3 really more compelling than upgraded ports of DQX and MH3G? Is an iffy DOA2 port really better than a massively improved NG3 port? TTT1 vs TTT2? And that's the mighty PS2, it just gets worse for GC, PS3, Wii, etc...

Tekken Tag 1 wasn't a PS2 launch title.

Yes. And no, the ps3 obviously didn't have lackluster games for the japanese market, otherwise it wouldn't have sold over 8 million and still be selling, despite its high price. I'm not sure what you mean by "all the other problems it had going for it".

The PS3 in Japan wasn't that much more expensive than the PS2 was at launch. Only slightly above 10,000 yen. The PS3 launched the cheapest in Japan than any other region and the 20 gig was sold there for over a year after launch. Here is something to chew on, it took the Vita only a couple weeks more than the PS3 to hit one million units sold in Japan.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Ahh the assumptions about unknown quantities argument, we have no idea how PS4 will perform. I don't see what you've presented above as conducive to the Wii U becoming the dominant platform, this strategy can even backfire with the Wii U sustaining the PS3 with ports longer than what would make sense businesses wise to Nintendo, PS3 could always undercut it in price and with a greater library/used games available. Also 3ds also has NSMB and MH3 and MH4, thinking it won't put pressure on a console whose most distinct feature is off TV play is unrealistic. They are competing against each other in japan.

Sorry, I didn't mean this was set in stone, only that it's Nintendo's plan of approach. They're doing things a bit differently than they with Wii, and getting "real" games from MH, DQ, Musou, Tekken, NG, etc at launch is emblematic of that. This is notable not only because of what the games are, but the sort of message their presence sends. Launch window tends to define platforms and it's extremely difficult to change that perception once it's set in, Iwata even just talked about this at the investor briefing last month.

NSMBU also isn't the same game as NSMB2, and I think there's a much stronger historical case for these sorts of games being more indirectly supportive than directly competitive with each other.

Is better than 3ds and PS3 and Wii, however those platforms are already established in the market, they aren't launching so that's not the comparison you need to make, is how unique it is in comparison to the established platforms. In my eyes it isn't distinct enough to be conducive to dominance.

Launch is all we can look at since it's all we know. It's quite strong for Wii U in a historical context though, and probably gives a good indication of what we can expect going forward. That's all.

 

[thehypocrite]

This is logical fallacy here, nobody has said that the Wii U is going to dominate over the 3DS.

Did you see the thread title? How can Wii U be the dominant force in japan, if japan is currently dominated by the 3ds in the traditional market and mobile in the emergent one? The only logical fallacy is coming from you.

Dominant means :1 a: commanding, controlling, or prevailing over all others <the dominant culture> b : very important, powerful, or successful <a dominant theme> <a dominant industry>
2 : overlooking and commanding from a superior position <a dominant hill>
3 : of, relating to, or exerting ecological or genetic dominance
4 : being the one of a pair of bodily structures that is the more effective or predominant in action <dominant eye>


I didn't create the thread. If you want to phrase it as Wii U will be better than all the dominated platforms than the answer is still maybe, we know nothing about is competition.

 

[Hero]

Err, aren't you agreeing with me here? I said about million, because I could have sworn that's the YTD for the last couple of years. So the average across the entire lifecycle is 1.4? Yeah, I guess I was way off with that one...

Are you related to Pachter here? You are considerably off for a prediction that you are claiming to be true based off of nothing assumptions.

Yes. And no, the ps3 obviously didn't have lackluster games for the japanese market, otherwise it wouldn't have sold over 8 million and still be selling, despite its high price. I'm not sure what you mean by "all the other problems it had going for it".

Haha, okay, so the PS3 had awesome games that catered to the Japanese audience so well, right? How many million sellers does the PS3 have in Japan? I love how you think the Wii U software lineup of sequels like NSMB U, Wii Fit U, Wii Sports U, MH, etc won't matter but the PS3 had excellent software.

Did you see the thread title? How can Wii U be the dominant force in japan, if japan is currently dominated by the 3ds in the traditional market and mobile in the emergent one? The only logical fallacy is coming from you.

Dominant means :1 a: commanding, controlling, or prevailing over all others <the dominant culture> b : very important, powerful, or successful <a dominant theme> <a dominant industry>
2 : overlooking and commanding from a superior position <a dominant hill>
3 : of, relating to, or exerting ecological or genetic dominance
4 : being the one of a pair of bodily structures that is the more effective or predominant in action <dominant eye>


I didn't create the thread. If you want to phrase it as Wii U will be better than all the dominated platforms than the answer is still maybe, we know nothing about is competition.

The context of the OP was for home consoles, not handhelds. Pretty sure OldJadedGamer can confirm that.

 

[H_Prestige]

The PS3 in Japan wasn't that much more expensive than the PS2 was at launch. Only slightly above 10,000 yen. The PS3 launched the cheapest in Japan than any other region and the 20 gig was sold there for over a year after launch. Here is something to chew on, it took the Vita only a couple weeks more than the PS3 to hit one million units sold in Japan.

So will the vita reach 8 million?

If we really want to say ps3's japanese lineup is lackluster, that's fine. But realize those same games being sold in wii u boxes won't magically be any less lackluster. Which would blow a giant hole in the wii u has incredible third party support idea. Since ps3's japanese lineup is almost entirely third party.

 

[schuelma]

Just remember folks, Prestige is the poster who claimed that games as big as NSMB Wii come out on other platforms every single year.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Tekken Tag 1 wasn't a PS2 launch title.

Yeah, I was being a little looser with "launch". More like first several weeks (which all we know for Wii U).


Since people seem to have issues remembering, here's the first month of Japanese developed 3rd party releases for all major consoles in Japan:


Famicom
-nothing

PC Engine
-nothing

MegaDrive
-nothing

Super Famicom
12.01.90 Ka-Blooey! (Kemco)
12.16.90 Actraiser (Enix)
12.16.90 Populous (Imagineer)
12.21.90 Final Fight (Capcom)
12.21.90 Gradius III (Konami)

Neo*Geo
-nothing

3DO
03.20.94 Chiki Chiki Machine Wacky Races (Future Pirates)
03.20.94 Pebble Beach Golf Links (T&E Soft)
03.20.94 Ultraman Powered (Bandai)
03.20.94 Yamamura Misa Suspense: Kyoto Kurama Sansou Satsujin Jiken (T&E Soft)

Sega Saturn
11.22.94 Mahjong Gokuji Tenku (EA Victor)
11.22.94 Myst (Sunsoft)
11.22.94 TAMA (Time Warner Interactive)

PlayStation
12.03.94 A-Train IV Evolution (ArtDink)
12.03.94 Mahjong Gokuji Tenku (EA Victor)
12.03.94 Mahjong Station Mazin (Sunsoft)
12.03.94 Nekketsu Oyako (Tecnosoft)
12.03.94 Parodius Da! Deluxe Pack (Konami)
12.03.94 Ridge Racer (Namco)
12.03.94 TAMA (Time Warner Interactive)
12.09.94 Detana TwinBee Yahoo! Deluxe Pack (Konami)
12.16.94 King's Field (From Software)
12.22.94 Geom Cube (Tecnosoft)
12.22.94 Houma Hunter Lime: Special Collection Vol. 1 (Asmik)
12.22.94 Jikkyou Power Pro Yakyuu '95 (Konami)
12.22.94 Kakinoki Shogi (ASCII)
12.22.94 Twin Goddesses (PolyGram)
01.01.95 Battle Arena Toshinden (Takara)

PC-FX
-nothing

Virtual Boy
07.21.95 Panic Bomber! (Hudson)
07.21.95 Red Alarm (T&E Soft)
08.11.95 Golf (T&E Soft)
08.11.95 Vertical Force (Hudson)
08.11.95 Virtual League Baseball (Kemco)

Nintendo 64
06.23.96 Saikyou Habi Shogi (Seta)

Dreamcast
12.23.98 Seventh Cross (NEC HE)
12.23.98 Tetris 4D (BPS)

PlayStation 2
03.04.00 A-Train VI (ArtDink)
03.04.00 DrumMania (Konami)
03.04.00 Eternal Ring (From Software)
03.04.00 Kakinogi Shogi IV (ASCII)
03.04.00 Kessen (Koei)
03.04.00 Mahjong Takai (Koei)
03.04.00 Morita Shogi (Yuki Enterprise)
03.04.00 Ridge Racer V (Namco)
03.04.00 Stepping Selection (Jaleco)
03.04.00 Street Fighter EX3 (Capcom)
03.23.00 Golf Paradise (T&E Soft)
03.30.00 Dead or Alive 2 (Tecmo)
03.30.00 Driving Emotion Type S (Square)
03.30.00 Tekken Tag Tournament (Namco)

Gamecube
09.14.01 Super Monkey Ball (Sega)

Xbox
02.22.02 Air Force Delta: Storm (Konami)
02.22.02 Dead or Alive 3 (Tecmo)
02.22.02 ESPN International Winter Sports 2002 (Konami)
02.22.02 ESPN Winter X-Games Snowboarding 2002 (Konami)
02.22.02 Genma Onimusha (Capcom)
02.22.02 Jet Set Radio Future (Sega)
02.22.02 Nobunaga no Yabou: Ranseiki (Koei)
02.22.02 Silent Hill 2: Restless Dreams (Konami)
02.22.02 Wreckless: The Yakuza Missions (Bunkasha Soft)
02.28.02 Kabuki Warriors (Genki)
02.28.02 Metal Dungeon (Panther Software)
03.14.02 Shikigami no Shiro (MediaQuest)
03.21.02 GunValkyrie (Sega)

Xbox 360
12.10.05 Final Fantasy XI Online (Square Enix) beta invite
12.10.05 Ridge Racer 6 (Namco)
12.10.05 Tetris The Grand Master Ace (AQ Interactive)
12.22.05 Dynasty Warriors 5 Special (Koei)
12.29.05 Dead or Alive 4 (Tecmo)

PlayStation 3
11.11.06 Miyasato Miyoshi Kyoudai Naizou: Sega Golf Club (Sega)
11.11.06 Mobile Suit Gundam: Crossfire (Namco Bandai)
11.11.06 Ridge Racer 7 (Namco Bandai)
11.16.06 Mahjong Fight Club: Zenkoku Taisenban (Konami)
11.22.06 Mahjong Taikai IV (Koei)

Wii
12.02.06 Crayon Shin-Chan: Saikyou Kazoku Kasukabe King Wii (Banpresto)
12.02.06 Elebits (Konami)
12.02.06 Ennichi no Tatsujin (Namco Bandai)
12.02.06 Escape from Bug Island (Spike)
12.02.06 Kororinpa: Marble Mania (Hudson)
12.02.06 SD Gundam Scadhammers (Namco Bandai)
12.02.06 Super Monkey Ball: Banana Blitz (Sega)
12.02.06 Super Swing Golf (Tecmo)
12.02.06 Trauma Center: Second Opinion (Atlus)
12.02.06 Wing Island (Hudson)
12.14.06 Bleach: Shattered Blade (Sega)
01.01.07 Dragon Ball Z: Budokai Tenkaichi 2 (Namco Bandai)
01.01.07 GT Pro Series (MTO)

Wii U
12.08.12 Dragon Quest X Online: Mezameshi Itsutsu no Shuzoku (Square Enix) beta invite
12.08.12 Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate (Capcom)
12.08.12 Ninja Gaiden 3: Razor's Edge (Tecmo Koei)
12.08.12 Tekken Tag Tournament 2: Wii U Edition (Namco Bandai)
12.08.12 Warriors Orochi 3 Hyper (Tecmo Koei)
12.13.12 San Goku Shi 12 (Tecmo Koei)
12.20.12 Family Party: 30 Great Games Obstacle Arcade (D3 Publisher)
12.20.12 Fist of the North Star: Ken's Rage 2 (Tecmo Koei)
12.xx.12 Tank! Tank! Tank! (Namco Bandai)

 

[Gaogaogao]

nintendo + monster hunter = domination

 

[Terrell]

There are 3 factors to consider when discussing this topic:

1) Japan (and developers) have long preferred one home console to rule them all and bet big on a single platform when it's feasible to do so

2) Japanese developers always prefer to support the "known quantity" as we are seeing with the 3DS and it takes something radically divergent that turns the market on its ear to change that

3) Japanese developers acknowledge that a strong Western presence of a console is key to success of their software.


To calculate next-gen trajectory in Japan, all 3 of these issues must be addressed in full, as none of these conditions exist in a vacuum.


And here's how I evaluate these conditions:

1) First one out of the gate has a long lead on install base, with the financially turbulent Sega being the exception with the Dreamcast (and even then, companies like Capcom bet pretty big on it in some respects). Couple that with it being a successor to the fastest-selling console of the last generation, and we see how that goes.

2) As said, Wii's initial success and burnout are well documented. We know why it was strong out of the gate and why it fizzled. The reason it fizzled is the 3rd-party software was not there to capitalize on Nintendo's software dead zones. Knowing there are opportunities for sales on the successor to the biggest hardware launch of last generation and knowing there will be more consumers to sell their games to for the first 2-3 years in contrast to PS4 is easy enough to surmise that it is a "known quantity". They also know that, as with the DS and 3DS, there are opportunities to sell 3rd-party content alongside Nintendo's content without one cannibalizing the other.
Thanks to the PS3 pissing away much of Sony's hold of the market, everything that came after it (see: Vita) becomes an "unknown quantity", and you are seeing what happens in Japan when that occurs. Unless PS4 does something that truly sets itself wildly apart from Nintendo in a good way that catches the consumer's attention (and I'm not talking graphics), PS4 will likely fall into the same space occupied by the "unknown quantity" that was the Gamecube.

3) Another "known quantity" is that the success of the Wii was not limited to Japan, but was in fact STRONGER in the Americas, but fizzled for the same reasons sales-wise as it did in Japan: no 3rd-party content to capitalize on the dead zones. One household that owns a Wii U in the US can hold every demographic: the 18-35 male, the 16-30 female, smaller children... all 3 of the "sweet spots" to sell to on one device, something we haven't seen in gaming for the past 6 years or more, and one of the advantages that the console market has over the handheld, that being the console is a more communal device than a "one person at a time" handheld. You can make ANY game and be guaranteed to reach a fair chunk of the target demographic in the US.


This is just my take on the matter, of course, but I think the point still stands that all 3 of these points need to be addressed when discussing any new console/handheld in Japan.

 

[snowdog1971]

Mario CHECK
Monster Hunter CHECK
Dragon Quest CHECK

and MATE

Yup, this ^^

I think ZombiU should also do very well over there too.

 

[Clear]

Stop making excuses about third-parties not capitalizing on Wii's "dead zones". The plain obvious truth was that those titles tended to lean heavily on the technological advantages of the HD-consoles ensuring that any Wii version would be regarded as an inferior down-port.

Technology is a selling-point for many "core" focussed franchises, and quite simply the Wii couldn't match them because that wasn't what the platform was about.

 

[test_account]

Why did the PS3 version sell the most of multiplatform games on PS3/Wii despite the big userbase difference?

 

[Sandfox]

I think Nintendo has all the franchises in place to dominate but it may take a year or so for the games that will cement that position to come out. the PS4 will have series like FF(which is on the decline) and MGS but I don't think that's enough.

 

[qq more]

Yup, this ^^

I think ZombiU should also do very well over there too.

...Isn't ZombiU a FPS? I doubt that game will sell much in Japan.

Why did the PS3 version sell the most of multiplatform games on PS3/Wii despite the big userbase difference?

Probably has to do with the fanbase of their respective franchises being mostly Sony fans or something I guess? There weren't a lot of those games though, so it's tough to say.

 

[ksamedi]

I'd argue the best bet would be to focus on Wii U to try and centralize audiences around the console with the greatest domestic potential and then port up to PS4/Durango for games with more western appeal. Simply repeating the Wii vs PS360 dynamic (which is essentially what you're saying here) is a recipe for disaster with another generational jump in resource demands.

In the short term I think PS3/Wii U multiplatform development also makes a lot of sense for the transitional period, adding in 360 ports for games going west.

Nintendo has generally been seen as a kiddy console for a lot of western third party developers. Developers who almost exclusively develop M rated titles. I think it will be a difficult task for Nintendo to convince western third party developers to make the Wii U the lead development platform. First Nintendo has to shake off the kiddy stigma, and third parties need to see sales results. I don't think its necesarily a problem for Nintendo. I think the indie scene will be really important this gen, and big huge budget games will probably be limited to a few known brands.

I think you are right about the short term. We will see a lot of 360PS3 ports to Wii U, and vice versa. Mid to long term I think more unique software is needed for the game industry to be sustainable. And the Wii U is well positioned for this. This makes me wonder what Sony or MS are cooking. Revolution or evolution?

 

[test_account]

Probably has to do with the fanbase of their respective franchises being mostly Sony fans or something I guess? There weren't a lot of those games though, so it's tough to say.

If there will be many PS4/WiiU multiplatform games, will most people prefer and buy the PS4 version?

 

[schuelma]

Why did the PS3 version sell the most of multiplatform games on PS3/Wii despite the big userbase difference?

Because 3rd parties cultivated an ecosystem on the PS3 for their games very early on and utterly failed to try on the Wii.

Not brain surgery.

 

[Terrell]

Why did the PS3 version sell the most of multiplatform games on PS3/Wii despite the big userbase difference?

On top of the comments above, exactly how many "multi-platform" Japanese games were on both PS3 and Wii? I can only count enough to fit on less than one hand.

Add to that the fact that certain genres have userbases that follow "marquee titles" and you see the point. For instance, given that Platinum has well situated itself as a "marquee" developer in action titles, many gamers are more likely to buy a Wii U to continue to support that genre and one of the power players in it. RPGs have their DQ/FF, shooters in the West have their CoD, etc. If you lack marquee developers and games in particular genres, no one is going to look to those platforms for those games.

 

[schuelma]

On top of the comments above, exactly how many "multi-platform" Japanese games were on both PS3 and Wii? I can only count enough to fit on less than one hand.

Right. Tales franchise, SW3, Basara, Samurai Warriors...uhhhhh.....

 

[ksamedi]

If there will be many PS4/WiiU multiplatform games, will most people prefer and buy the PS4 version?

definitely!

Reason: Wii U version will be inferiour, and people will by the PS4 version because of it. The question is, though, how big that multiplatform huge budget game market will be? Especially in Japan. Will third party publishers have to sell 3 million copies to get even? I think we will see a return to the times where exlusives mattered. There are not that much similarities between Nintendo and Sony and selling well on the Wii U will require unique approaches.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

There are 3 factors to consider when discussing this topic:

1) Japan (and developers) have long preferred one home console to rule them all and bet big on a single platform when it's feasible to do so

2) Japanese developers always prefer to support the "known quantity" as we are seeing with the 3DS and it takes something radically divergent that turns the market on its ear to change that

3) Japanese developers acknowledge that a strong Western presence of a console is key to success of their software.


To calculate next-gen trajectory in Japan, all 3 of these issues must be addressed in full, as none of these conditions exist in a vacuum.


And here's how I evaluate these conditions:

1) First one out of the gate has a long lead on install base, with the financially turbulent Sega being the exception with the Dreamcast (and even then, companies like Capcom bet pretty big on it in some respects). Couple that with it being a successor to the fastest-selling console of the last generation, and we see how that goes.

2) As said, Wii's initial success and burnout are well documented. We know why it was strong out of the gate and why it fizzled. The reason it fizzled is the 3rd-party software was not there to capitalize on Nintendo's software dead zones. Knowing there are opportunities for sales on the successor to the biggest hardware launch of last generation and knowing there will be more consumers to sell their games to for the first 2-3 years in contrast to PS4 is easy enough to surmise that it is a "known quantity". They also know that, as with the DS and 3DS, there are opportunities to sell 3rd-party content alongside Nintendo's content without one cannibalizing the other.
Thanks to the PS3 pissing away much of Sony's hold of the market, everything that came after it (see: Vita) becomes an "unknown quantity", and you are seeing what happens in Japan when that occurs. Unless PS4 does something that truly sets itself wildly apart from Nintendo in a good way that catches the consumer's attention (and I'm not talking graphics), PS4 will likely fall into the same space occupied by the "unknown quantity" that was the Gamecube.

3) Another "known quantity" is that the success of the Wii was not limited to Japan, but was in fact STRONGER in the Americas, but fizzled for the same reasons sales-wise as it did in Japan: no 3rd-party content to capitalize on the dead zones. One household that owns a Wii U in the US can hold every demographic: the 18-35 male, the 16-30 female, smaller children... all 3 of the "sweet spots" to sell to on one device, something we haven't seen in gaming for the past 6 years or more, and one of the advantages that the console market has over the handheld, that being the console is a more communal device than a "one person at a time" handheld. You can make ANY game and be guaranteed to reach a fair chunk of the target demographic in the US.


This is just my take on the matter, of course, but I think the point still stands that all 3 of these points need to be addressed when discussing any new console/handheld in Japan.

Terrell is on point as usual here. Great analysis, it really helps frame just exactly how Wii U and later PS4 will be positioned coming into things. It also helps explain why 3DS and Vita have down the way they did, good stuff.

Nintendo has generally been seen as a kiddy console for a lot of western third party developers. Developers who almost exclusively develop M rated titles. I think it will be a difficult task for Nintendo to convince western third party developers to make the Wii U the lead development platform. First Nintendo has to shake off the kiddy stigma, and third parties need to see sales results. I don't think its necesarily a problem for Nintendo. I think the indie scene will be really important this gen, and big huge budget games will probably be limited to a few known brands.

I think you are right about the short term. We will see a lot of 360PS3 ports to Wii U, and vice versa. Mid to long term I think more unique software is needed for the game industry to be sustainable. And the Wii U is well positioned for this. This makes me wonder what Sony or MS are cooking. Revolution or evolution?

Kiddie console is about a decade out of date, Wii faced a whole new set of demographic "problems". And my comments were purely in regards to Japanese devs, the west is again a whole other can of worms.



Anyway here's the western made 3rd party and 1st party launch month lineups while I'm at it, so people can the whole picture:

Famicom
07.15.83 Donkey Kong (Nintendo)
07.15.83 Donkey Kong Jr. (Nintendo)
07.15.83 Popeye (Nintendo)

PC Engine
10.30.87 Bikkuriman World (Hudson)
10.30.87 Shanghai (Hudson)
11.21.87 The Kung-Fu (Hudson)
11.30.87 J.J. & Jeff (Hudson)

MegaDrive
10.29.88 Space Harrier II (Sega)
10.29.88 Super Thunderblade (Sega)
11.27.88 Altered Beast (Sega)

Super Famicom
11.21.90 F-Zero (Nintendo)
11.21.90 Super Mario World (Nintendo)
12.21.90 Pilotwings (Nintendo)

Neo*Geo
07.01.91 Alpha Mission II (SNK)
07.01.91 Baseball Stars 2 (SNK)
07.01.91 Blue's Journey (SNK)
07.01.91 Cyber-Lip (SNK)
07.01.91 Ghost Pilots (SNK)
07.01.91 League Bowling (SNK)
07.01.91 Magician Lord (SNK)
07.01.91 Mahjong Kyoretsuden (SNK)
07.01.91 Minasan No Okagesamadesu! (SNK)
07.01.91 NAM 1975 (SNK)
07.01.91 Ninja Combat (SNK)
07.01.91 Puzzled (SNK)
07.01.91 Riding Hero (SNK)
07.01.91 Sengoku (SNK)
07.01.91 The King of the Monsters (SNK)
07.01.91 The Super Spy (SNK)
07.01.91 Top Player's Golf (SNK)

3DO
03.20.94 Fire Ball! (Panasonic Software)
03.20.94 The Life Stage: Virtual House (Panasonic Software)
03.26.94 Escape from Monster Manor (EA Victor)
04.09.94 Tetsujin (Panasonic Software)

Sega Saturn
11.22.94 Wan-Chai Connection (Sega)
11.22.94 Virtua Fighter (Sega)
12.02.94 Gale Racer (Sega)
12.02.94 The Mansion of Hidden Souls (Sega)
12.09.94 Clockwork Knight (Sega)

PlayStation
12.03.94 Crime Crackers (SCEI)
12.16.94 Motor Toon Grand-Prix (SCEI)

PC-FX
12.23.94 Battle Heat! (Hudson)
12.23.94 Neo Graduation (NEC HE)
12.23.94 Team Innocent: Point of No Return (Hudson)

Virtual Boy
07.21.95 Galactic Pinball (Nintendo)
07.21.95 Mario's Tennis (Nintendo)
07.21.95 Teleroboxer (Nintendo)

Nintendo 64
06.23.96 Pilotwings 64 (Nintendo)
06.23.96 Super Mario 64 (Nintendo)

Dreamcast
11.27.98 Godzilla Generations (Sega)
11.27.98 July (Sega)
11.27.98 Pen! Pen! Triathlon (Sega)
11.27.98 Virtua Fighter 3tb (Sega)
12.23.98 Sonic Adventure (Sega)

PlayStation 2
03.09.00 FantaVision (SCEI)
03.23.00 I.Q.+ Remix: Intelligent Qube (SCEI)

Gamecube
09.14.01 Luigi's Mansion (Nintendo)
09.14.01 Wave Race: BlueStorm (Nintendo)

Xbox
02.22.02 Amped: Freestyle Snowboarding (MGS)
02.22.02 Project Gotham Racing (MGS)
02.22.02 Sneakers! (MGS)

Xbox 360
12.10.05 Every Party (MGS)
12.10.05 Perfect Dark Zero (MGS)

PlayStation 3
11.11.06 Genji: Days of the Blade (SCEI)
11.11.06 Resistance: Fall of Man (SCEI)

Wii
12.02.06 The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (Nintendo)
12.02.06 Wario Ware: Smooth Moves (Nintendo)
12.02.06 Wii Play (Nintendo)
12.02.06 Wii Sports (Nintendo)
12.14.06 Pokémon Battle Revolution (Pokémon Co.)

Wii U
12.08.12 New Super Mario Bros. U (Nintendo)
12.08.12 Nintendo Land (Nintendo)



Famicom
-nothing

PC Engine
-nothing

MegaDrive
-nothing

Super Famicom
-nothing

Neo*Geo
-nothing

3DO
03.26.94 Crash'n Burn (BYSE)
03.26.94 Dragon's Lair (T&E Soft)
03.26.94 Stellar 7: Draxon's Revenge (T&E Soft)
03.26.94 Total Eclipse (BYSE)

Sega Saturn
-nothing

PlayStation
-nothing

PC-FX
-nothing

Virtual Boy
-nothing

Nintendo 64
-nothing

Dreamcast
12.17.98 Incoming (Imagineer)

PlayStation 2
-nothing

Gamecube
-nothing

Xbox
03.07.02 NBA Live 2002 (EA Square)

Xbox 360
12.10.05 FIFA Soccer 06: Road to the FIFA World Cup (Electronic Arts)
12.10.05 Need for Speed: Most Wanted (Electronic Arts)
12.22.05 Peter Jackson's King Kong (Ubisoft)

PlayStation 3
-nothing

Wii
12.02.06 Red Steel (Ubisoft)
12.14.06 Rayman Raving Rabbids (Ubisoft)
12.21.06 Monster 4 x 4 World Circuit (Ubisoft)
12.21.06 Need for Speed: Carbon (Electronic Arts)

Wii U
12.08.12 Assassin's Creed III (Ubisoft)
12.08.12 Batman: Arkham City Armored Edition (Warner Bros.)
12.08.12 FIFA Soccer 13 (Electronic Arts)
12.08.12 Mass Effect III: Special Edition (Electronic Arts)
12.08.12 ZombiU (Ubisoft)
12.20.12 Call of Duty: Black Ops II (Square Enix)
12.20.12 ESPN Sports Connection (Ubisoft)
12.xx.12 Rayman Legends (Ubisoft)

 

[Celine]

Why did the PS3 version sell the most of multiplatform games on PS3/Wii despite the big userbase difference?

Very few games were Wii/PS3 multiplatform.
Of the few I remember Tales of Graces, Basara 3 and that's it.

Why did they perfomr better on PS3?
Because third-party publishers made clear even before the start of the generation that those kind of games would have been made for PS3( and Xbox 360).
Wii got mostly family oriented software or low/mid budget core games.

Also all these Wii/PS3 hit the Wii in late 2009 onward, after the Wii peaked in 2008.
At that point it was clear to gamers that Nintendo games were mostly the ones the propelled the system.

GC low sales performance, Wii archaic architetture and Nintendo odd approach geared toward compel Nintendo core gamers and casual were what caused third-parties low efforts.

If there will be many PS4/WiiU multiplatform games, will most people prefer and buy the PS4 version?

We can't know for sure at this stage (that's why this thread is silly).
If third-party support WiiU from the start and build a friendly ecosystem for a certain type of (core) games and it have the majority of the userabse it has a good chance to sell similar or better than a PS4 version.

The fact that most third-party games were released on PS1 and PS2, and PS3 too saw a high share of them can be an advantage on Sony front.
But as I said it depend on what happen (mostly in the first 2 yeasr).

 

[Sandfox]

Right. Tales franchise, SW3, Basara, Samurai Warriors...uhhhhh.....

I wouldn't really count Tales of Graces seeing as how the games came out pretty far apart from each other and the the Wii version came out the week before FFXIII.

 

[test_account]

Because 3rd parties cultivated an ecosystem on the PS3 for their games very early on and utterly failed to try on the Wii.

Not brain surgery.

Sorry, i dont quite understand. When a multiplatform PS3/Wii title came out, in what whay did an ecosystem play into what version people prefered to buy and play?

On top of the comments above, exactly how many "multi-platform" Japanese games were on both PS3 and Wii? I can only count enough to fit on less than one hand.

Add to that the fact that certain genres have userbases that follow "marquee titles" and you see the point. For instance, given that Platinum has well situated itself as a "marquee" developer in action titles, many gamers are more likely to buy a Wii U to continue to support that genre and one of the power players in it. RPGs have their DQ/FF, shooters in the West have their CoD, etc. If you lack marquee developers and games in particular genres, no one is going to look to those platforms for those games.

Schuelma already mentioned most of them.

If both the PS4 and the WiiU gets those marquee titles, why are they more likely to buy the WiiU version over the PS4 version?

definitely!

Reason: Wii U version will be inferiour, and people will by the PS4 version because of it. The question is, though, how big that multiplatform huge budget game market will be? Especially in Japan. Will third party publishers have to sell 3 million copies to get even? I think we will see a return to the times where exlusives mattered. There are not that much similarities between Nintendo and Sony and selling well on the Wii U will require unique approaches.

Yeah, i think graphics had a role to the sales. If this happends with PS4 and WiiU too, i wonder if the situation will be any different.

Very few games were Wii/PS3 multiplatform.
Of the few I remember Tales of Graces, Basara 3 and that's it.

Why did they perfomr better on PS3?
Because third-party publishers made clear even before the start of the generation that those kind of games would have been made for PS3( and Xbox 360).
Wii got mostly family oriented software or low/mid budget core games.

Also all these Wii/PS4 hit the Wii in late 2009 onward, after the Wii peaked in 2008.
At that point it was clear to gamers that Nintendo games were mostly the ones the propelled the system.

GC low sales performance, Wii archaic architetture and Nintendo odd approach geared toward compel Nintendo core gamers and casual were what caused third-parties low efforts.

Yeah, there werent many of those, but those games did sell best on the PS3. I'm wondering if (and why) there will be any different the next time around (with PS4 and WiiU).

We can't know for sure at this stage (that's why this thread is silly).
If third-party support WiiU from the start and build a friendly ecosystem for a certain type of (core) games and it have the majority of the userabse it has a good chance to sell similar or better than a PS4 version.

The fact that most third-party games were released on PS1 and PS2, and PS3 too saw a high share of them can be and advantage on Sony front.
But as I said it depend on what happen (mostly in the first 2 yeasr).

Yeah, it is just speculation at this point indeed. We dont know anything about the PS4 for example. But some people seem to be very sure about how things will be, nothing wrong with that of course, but i'm just wondering about the reasoning behind it.

 

[H_Prestige]

Didn't the Wii get a Tales game before the ps3?

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Very few games were Wii/PS3 multiplatform.
Of the few I remember Tales of Graces, Basara 3 and that's it.

Why did they perfomr better on PS3?
Because third-party publishers made clear even before the start of the generation that those kind of games would have been made for PS3( and Xbox 360).
Wii got mostly family oriented software or low/mid budget core games.

Also all these Wii/PS4 hit the Wii in late 2009 onward, after the Wii peaked in 2008.
At that point it was clear to gamers that Nintendo games were mostly the ones the propelled the system.

GC low sales performance, Wii archaic architetture and Nintendo odd approach geared toward compel Nintendo core gamers and casual were what caused third-parties low efforts.


We can't know for sure at this stage (that's why this thread is silly).
If third-party support WiiU from the start and build a friendly ecosystem for a certain type of (core) games and it have the majority of the userabse it has a good chance to sell similar or better than a PS4 version.

The fact that most third-party games were released on PS1 and PS2, and PS3 too saw a high share of them can be and advantage on Sony front.
But as I said it depend on what happen (mostly in the first 2 yeasr).

Yeah, it wasn't much surprise when a game like Samuari Warriors sold better on PS3 than Wii when it was the 7th Musou on one but the first (and only) on the other.

Demographics and perception are set early, that's why Iwata made sure Wii U gets "real" Musou day one for example.

Didn't the Wii get a Tales game before the ps3?

Only a badly percieved escort title. Besides, Tales base followed FF.

 

[chertipros]

Didn't the Wii get a Tales game before the ps3?

yes but by then everyone knew that namco was just going to port it to the ps3 a year after since they did that for the 2 games on non PlayStation hardware prior (vesperia, symphonia) so no one bought it for the wii

 

[schuelma]

Sorry, i dont quite understand. When a multiplatform PS3/Wii title came out, in what whay did an ecosystem play into what version people prefered to buy and play?

.

I am saying that 3rd parties invested heavily in PS3 by announcing and releasing major core games early and often. That lead to a userbase more receptive to purchasing those types of games in the future.

By contrast, 3rd parties ignored Wii for years, and as a result, when something like SW3 came out in 2009, you had to basically build the audience from scratch.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

There's still a couple 3rd party games that did better on Wii than PS3 too (428, Sonic Unleashed) but it was pretty minor. Some games also did better on Wii than PSP too (Puyo Puyo, Kamen Rider CH, Shiren 3).

 

[michaelius]

There are 3 factors to consider when discussing this topic:

1) Japan (and developers) have long preferred one home console to rule them all and bet big on a single platform when it's feasible to do so

2) Japanese developers always prefer to support the "known quantity" as we are seeing with the 3DS and it takes something radically divergent that turns the market on its ear to change that

3) Japanese developers acknowledge that a strong Western presence of a console is key to success of their software.

1. With handelds heavily eating into home console marketshare the advantage of being dominant console in Japan is diminishing as you could make those games with much smaller budget on 3DS

2. With HD game development cycle lasting around 2 years software decision for 2013-2014 are already made and they were based on this gen situation as the basics plus whatever predictions were made from info provided by platform holders.

3. And this is why Wi U will strugle. PS3/X360 are well documented strong software sellers with tons of users connecting to online services. Wii on the other hand is successor to burned out platform which was trainwreck for core genre games and had weakest online presence. So the PS4/X720 are much more likely to be considered safe bets for 3rd worlwide targeted games.

If the WiiU takes the Japan by storm we will see fruits of it in 2015-2016. For now 2013-2014 are likely to be years of ports and multiplatforms.

 

[schuelma]

Didn't the Wii get a Tales game before the ps3?

It did, but that does not change the point- Graces was preceded by absolutely nothing (well, besides a poor Symphonia spinoff) to build that type of audience.

The PS3 tales games were preceded by Final Fantasy 13.

 

[test_account]

I am saying that 3rd parties invested heavily in PS3 by announcing and releasing major core games early and often. That lead to a userbase more receptive to purchasing those types of games in the future.

By contrast, 3rd parties ignored Wii for years, and as a result, when something like SW3 came out in 2009, you had to basically build the audience from scratch.

I see. If the 3rd party invest heavily in the PS4 too, will it be any different? The topic seems to be a much about many PS4/WiiU multiplatform, so i'm wondering which version most people will prefer.

There's still a couple 3rd party games that did better on Wii than PS3 too (428, Sonic Unleashed) but it was pretty minor.

True, but those games were however not released on the same date, which most likely affected the result. Same with some of the Winning Eleven games, releasing later on the Wii which probably affected the sales a bit.

 

[test_account]

Double post.

 

[Terrell]

Schuelma already mentioned most of them.

If both the PS4 and the WiiU gets those marquee titles, why are they more likely to buy the WiiU version over the PS4 version?

Which console are they more likely to already have by that point? One year headstart at LEAST tells me it will be the Wii U, simple as that.

As for graphics being a selling point? Didn't help the Gamecube, Xbox or the PSP. Sure as shit isn't helping the Vita. It can be concluded that, while a factor to be considered, it's a secondary one that holds less pull than people give it credit for.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

1. With handelds heavily eating into home console marketshare the advantage of being dominant console in Japan is diminishing as you could make those games with much smaller budget on 3DS

While true, there are still titles that tend to favor consoles even in Japan. Musou is a good example of that.

And in Wii U's favor, the "high spec" handheld (Vita) has utterly failed worldwide this time around. PSP attracted a lot of domestic support that probably would've gone to Wii last gen under different circumstances.

2. With HD game development cycle lasting around 2 years software decision for 2013-2014 are already made and they were based on this gen situation as the basics plus whatever predictions were made from info provided by platform holders.

Wii U launch already sort of indicates otherwise. Rather than play wait-and-see or the-spinoff-test games with support like they did on Wii, companies like Namco Bandai or Tecmo Koei can simply port over their mainline console games to start building these audiences from the get go. That's what they did with PS3 largely too in fact, until the ground up system drivers like MGS4 or FFXIII came out years later.

3. And this is why Wi U will strugle. PS3/X360 are well documented strong software sellers with tons of users connecting to online services. Wii on the other hand is successor to burned out platform which was trainwreck for core genre games and had weakest online presence. So the PS4/X720 are much more likely to be considered safe bets for 3rd worlwide targeted games.

If the WiiU takes the Japan by storm we will see fruits of it in 2015-2016. For now 2013-2014 are likely to be years of ports and multiplatforms.

PS360 also have a solid track record of core bombs, some even studio closing and far more than Wii. And in terms of Japanese games in particular, the western HD market has proven particularly hostile to Japan made games in general and that trend just seems to be worsening as the years go on. Next gen is hardly a slam dunk decision.

We're rapidly approaching a point where domestic consolidation looks more reasonable that worldwide fracturing, especially in the face of next gen resource demands.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

True, but those games were however not released on the same date, which most likely affected the result. Same with some of the Winning Eleven games, releasing later on the Wii which probably affected the sales a bit.

428 was, but Sonic was simultaneous or close to it.

 

[Celine]

I see. If the 3rd party invest heavily in the PS4 too, will it be any different?

And treat WiiU as they did for Wii?
No.

Also you should consider those consumers that choose or can own only one home system at least for a meaningful period of time and the case of a big winner that is a home system that can outsell the rival by more than 10 million units (LTD).

As I said hard to predict.

Yeah, it is just speculation at this point indeed. We dont know anything about the PS4 for example. But some people seem to be very sure about how things will be, nothing wrong with that of course, but i'm just wondering about the reasoning behind it.

I'm not one of them cause I like Stumpy-bet.
However I can guess that those feel that way because Nintendo is by far the biggest publishers in the Country and they don't expect a GC situation again (released too late to be competitive and with low third-party support).

What we can say just before the launch is that Nintendo seems to be positioning WiiU close to a core gaming machine (sorry for the silly name) than what they did for Wii (something similar happened to 3DS).
The launch third-party lineup while being mostly composed of ports or enhanced versions is a signal in this way.

Only a badly percieved escort title. Besides, Tales base followed FF.

The early announcement of FF13 (and versus) exclusivity surely helped RPG fan to choose to buy a PS3 but IMO Tales fans have a soft spot for PS systems (PSP nanakiri spin-offs sold really well).
In the same way that Sonic fans are more geared toward Nintendo systems.

 

[Celine]

dp

 

[Terrell]

1. With handelds heavily eating into home console marketshare the advantage of being dominant console in Japan is diminishing as you could make those games with much smaller budget on 3DS

Handhelds have a deficiency in many aspects that will ensure it can never supplant the console. Local multiplayer being one. Handhelds typically being for one individual vs. being able to sell software to an entire household being another.

Using this gen to say that handhelds are eating into marketshare is ridiculous and one of GAF's worst tropes. It's like saying a competant runner vs. a crippled old man make the competant runner Usain Bolt. Handhelds came out front because the console market was so fragmented and developers bet on the losing team in that market, with little time or funds to fix their mistake. Bring back the one dominant console in Japan and the situation will look VASTLY different.

2. With HD game development cycle lasting around 2 years software decision for 2013-2014 are already made and they were based on this gen situation as the basics plus whatever predictions were made from info provided by platform holders.

So these decisions were made in 2010, when the Wii was JUST starting to down-trend in sales and EVERYONE knew why. In spite of that, should that have not been considered, these decisions would have been made before the major upswing of the PS3, meaning that if they were going to bet on someone leading next gen in hardware units, the obvious choice is still Nintendo.

3. And this is why Wi U will strugle. PS3/X360 are well documented strong software sellers with tons of users connecting to online services. Wii on the other hand is successor to burned out platform which was trainwreck for core genre games and had weakest online presence. So the PS4/X720 are much more likely to be considered safe bets for 3rd worlwide targeted games.

If the WiiU takes the Japan by storm we will see fruits of it in 2015-2016. For now 2013-2014 are likely to be years of ports and multiplatforms.

The Wii burnout happened JUST after this 2-year milestone you speak of when publishers were determining where to spend their cash. Something to consider.

 

[test_account]

428 was, but Sonic was simultaneous or close to it.

Yeah, Sonic was closer than 428. It were two months appart regarding Sonic.

And treat WiiU as they did for Wii?
No.

Also you should consider those consumers that choose or can own only one home system at least for a meaningful period of time and the case of a big winner that is a home system that can outsell the rival by more than 10 million units (LTD).

As I said hard to predict.

Being able or want to only own one system can be a factor indeed. The PS3 is not dead when the WiiU comes however, so the WiiU wont have one year on the market alone, especially concidering that there might be many multiplatform games.

I'm not one of them cause I like Stumpy-bet.
However I can guess that those feel that way because Nintendo is by far the biggest publishers in the Country and they don't expect a GC situation again (released too late to be competitive and with low third-party support).

What we can say just before the launch is that Nintendo seems to be positioning WiiU close to a core gaming machine (sorry for the silly name) than what they did for Wii (something similar happened to 3DS).
The launch third-party lineup while being mostly composed of ports or enhanced versions is a signal in this way.

What is a Stumpy-bet?

I can see that reasoning. It doesnt concider what the PS4 will offer however, only that the WiiU will be a strong enough system that people will prefer over the PS4 and Xbox 720.

 

[Clear]

And in Wii U's favor, the "high spec" handheld (Vita) has utterly failed worldwide this time around. PSP attracted a lot of domestic support that probably would've gone to Wii last gen under different circumstances.

Handhelds are a different market to home consoles, and while production cost (which is determined substantially by platform choice) is a factor in what gets greenlit and what doesnt, its totally irrelevant to this discussion because WiiU is not a cheap platform to develop for - its as expensive as PS3/360.

The scary part is that those consoles have an install-base between them of nearly 140m units, whereas right now WiiU has zero.

If you were a businessman, why would you commit millions of dollars and years of dev-time into a product for a platform without a proven international audience, when such an obviously more potentially profitable alternative exists?

Especially when within the next 2 years at least one or both of these competitor companies will have a new system ready for launch, and with it software that is likely to change audience expectations based on its technological prowess.

I'd actually argue that the Wii's deliberately low-tech approach appearing AFTER 360 had hit the market was a far better scenario than the WiiU's incremental improvement a year or so prior to the real "next generation" starting. There is more than a whiff of Dreamcast about this.

 

[Fabrik]

When the WiiU takes the Japan by storm we will see fruits of it in 2015-2016. For now 2013-2014 are likely to be years of ports and multiplatforms.

Corrected. This is what will probably happen.