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[schuelma]

PS3 software is also selling strongly as ever in the region, and as demonstrated by PSP can continue to do so long after the hardware's glory days are over.
.

Yes, PS3 software is selling the best it ever has- after basically 3 years on the market where it struggled heavily.

Even with all of its relative successes, Wii U is going to launch with a game that will in all likelihood outsell every single PS3 game that has ever been released in the region.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

I love how not only is the Wii U not even out, the PS4 and Next Xbox haven't even been ANNOUNCED -- yet we are already declaring a winner. Solid.

Sony has no big first party selling games, their biggest third parties can't even get games out, and MS has ZERO effect in Japan.

 

[thehypocrite]

Yes, PS3 software is selling the best it ever has- after basically 3 years on the market where it struggled heavily.

Even with all of its relative successes, Wii U is going to launch with a game that will in all likelihood outsell every single PS3 game that has ever been released in the region.

I do acknowledged you are going to be right about this, but 3rd parties didn't cared about this before with the Wii, didn't care about going from the PS2 to the Xbox 360 as the leading console, why would they care today? You're presenting that just because Nintendo 1st party sales are enormous the market will shape around them. However no 3rd party makes their business model around that expectation, and they shouldn't, they base it on which platform allows them to make the most money with the lower risk and the least amount of investment among other factors. Right now in japan these platforms are Mobile/3DS/PS3. The Wii U isn't a significant departure from the PS3 and more than likely will keep it alive by sharing ports, price is favoring the PS3, handheld gamers are being served better by mobile and 3ds, how is exactly Wii U going to dominate them when it has a lesser library and a greater price?

I'm just not feeling the Nintendo strategy with Wii U. There's too much uncertainty and if scenarios that cloud its possible success.

 

[thehypocrite]

Sony has no big first party selling games, their biggest third parties can't even get games out, and MS has ZERO effect in Japan.

I do admit that the PS4 will have its own set of challenges to deal with and we would be able to make a better analysis once we have more details about the platform, however is fair to say that Sony will try to sustain the PS3 as the competition to the Wii U, which in my eyes can result as a temporary solution for them until they get the PS4 ready for release.

The PS3 is still a viable console, has a strong library and community in Japan, will be getting new strong core releases throughout the next year to sustain adequate sales. There's also the fact that the 3DSXL is also competing with the Wii U on the area.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

But that's a valid observation, especially given the two platforms launched pretty much concurrently. PS3 has been gaining ground on Wii since 2010, and given that its got a solid slate of titles lined up for the next 12 months is likely to continue to do so into 2013 and perhaps beyond. The gap is likely to end up at less than 2million units by the time the platforms are discontinued.

PS3 software is also selling strongly as ever in the region, and as demonstrated by PSP can continue to do so long after the hardware's glory days are over.

I've no doubt at this point that Nintendo's supremacy in the handheld market is going to continue, but simply looking at the numbers for the console sales its obvious to me that all it will take is for WiiU to underperform slightly, and PS4/Orbis to mildly exceed expectations and the whole situation could be reversed.

Hardware might end up close-ish (2-3m) but Wii software sales decimated PS3. In terms of software for Japan, Wii actually sold closer to PSP than PS3 overall. PSP software has also declined significantly this year, it doesn't really set a great precedent for a post successor PS3.

Nintendo doesn't just dominate handhelds, they dominate Japan as a whole now. Vita's stillborn, PSP's fading fast and consoles are looking like Sony's last real foothold, which has to be a frightening prospect for SCE. It's also hard to see a situation where PS4 is going to match or better PS3 either given how the industry is going there.

 

[BishopLamont]

But that's a valid observation, especially given the two platforms launched pretty much concurrently. PS3 has been gaining ground on Wii since 2010, and given that its got a solid slate of titles lined up for the next 12 months is likely to continue to do so into 2013 and perhaps beyond. The gap is likely to end up at less than 2million units by the time the platforms are discontinued.

PS3 software is also selling strongly as ever in the region, and as demonstrated by PSP can continue to do so long after the hardware's glory days are over.

I've no doubt at this point that Nintendo's supremacy in the handheld market is going to continue, but simply looking at the numbers for the console sales its obvious to me that all it will take is for WiiU to underperform slightly, and PS4/Orbis to mildly exceed expectations and the whole situation could be reversed.

PS3 can catch up to the Wii all it wants, the Wii U is gonna be out now. The best years for PS3 software still doesn't compete with the best years the Wii had, seriously the Wii dominated much more than even the PS2, the only downfall was its spec and the lack of support from third parties. The Wii has already fulfilled its mission, it made them a ton of money, brought them back to the forefront of gaming and its set them up good going into next-gen. Look at the way the 3DS was supported by Japanese devs early in its life, if it wasn't for the DS' success, you'd have seen a more evenly split support like it was with the DS/PSP, where third parties were hedging their bets on the PSP due to PS2's domination. Third parties will be supporting the Wii U, exclusivity or multiplatform is irrelevant to the overall picture.

The only way Wii U dominates is if Nintendo kills the 3DS. I feel the Wii U is more disruptive to handheld devices than consoles, however in Japan the 3DS already fills that space, is cheaper and has more software than the Wii U, thus it will cripple it.

In the west I think that Nintendo strategy is going to backfire as the features that are the selling point of the Wii U are being served better by the tablets, the competition in that arena is extremely fierce (Apple/Google/Msft/Amazon) Nintendo is banking too heavily on the gamepad neglecting core gaming features. Not feeling this strategy at all by Nintendo.

There's room for both 3DS and Wii U to dominate, look at the Wii and DS. In fact the synergy between both of their platforms usually helps to sell their hardware even more. Kinda like the Playstation family.

 

[MisterHero]

The price is the only problem I see that can cost Nintendo. It's worse when they're selling for a loss.

I'm sure this future gen will provide massive exclusives for the different consoles. As we've seen with PSP, it recieved a bunch of support that DS/3DS could've used. Same for some devs staying on PS2 rathertaking a 'small leap' to Wii. That's their choice though.

 

[schuelma]

I do acknowledged you are going to be right about this, but 3rd parties didn't cared about this before with the Wii, didn't care about going from the PS2 to the Xbox 360 as the leading console, why would they care today? You're presenting that just because Nintendo 1st party sales are enormous the market will shape around them. However no 3rd party makes their business model around that expectation, and they shouldn't, they base it on which platform allows them to make the most money with the lower risk and the least amount of investment among other factors. Right now in japan these platforms are Mobile/3DS/PS3. The Wii U isn't a significant departure from the PS3 and more than likely will keep it alive by sharing ports, price is favoring the PS3, handheld gamers are being served better by mobile and 3ds, how is exactly Wii U going to dominate them when it has a lesser library and a greater price?

I'm just not feeling the Nintendo strategy with Wii U. There's too much uncertainty and if scenarios that cloud its possible success.

Well what are we discussing- hardware and total software sales, or 3rd party support?

If we are only concerned with 3rd party support, then yes, NSMB and Wii Fit probably do not really figure into the equation.

However, I would argue that there are signs that Nintendo will do better with 3rd party support than they did with Wii:

-The market is simply a lot less favorable to Sony than it was in 2005 and 2006. I would hope we can all agree on that. Even if we concede that 3rd party sales are generally decent now, it still took years for that to happen and it took a near total ignoring of Wii.

-Even with not that many games announces, 3rd party support in terms of core game offerings is already better than what the Wii received during its first year:

-During its first year on the market, two 3rd party games broke 200K- Dragon Quest Swords in July 2007, and Umbrella Chronicles which released in November 2007. Two on rails spin offs.

-By comparison, Wii U will receive a Monster Hunter game which will likely sell 500K or so at launch. Dragon Quest X is supposed to arrive during the Spring. I would argue that from a core game perspective, those 2 titles are both more important than anything released in the Wii's first year. This is important because these titles could help cultivate a userbase more receptive to core game 3rd party efforts. Add in the year head start over PS4 and I feel the 3rd party situation is a lot better this time around.

 

[thehypocrite]

There's room for both 3DS and Wii U to dominate, look at the Wii and DS. In fact the synergy between both of their platforms usually helps to sell their hardware even more. Kinda like the Playstation family.

Sure, I do admit this can happen as well, I just for don't think is likely.

 

[BishopLamont]

Even just having a game like BLOPS 2 on a Nintendo system sends a big message to consumers. Do you want a box with Nintendo games + major western games, or do you want major western games with MS or PS4 first party. Sure the other two will get exclusive western games, but its not going to be the norm. Even if a BLOPS sells a million each iteration on the Wii U, thats enough to keep the ecosystem going.

Sure, I do admit this can happen as well, I just for don't think is likely.

I don't see any reason why it isn't likely. Just Nintendo's first party themselves can push major hardware, despite the strong 3DS support from Japanese devs, Nintendo's software as always, was the major reason it didn't do Vita numbers in its first year, that price drop wasn't in reaction to the Vita, it was in reaction to the general state of the industry. With a year headstart and early third party support, I can't see why Wii U won't be able to sell well alongside the 3DS.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

Even just having a game like BLOPS 2 on a Nintendo system sends a big message to consumers. Do you want a box with Nintendo games + major western games, or do you want major western games with MS or PS4 first party. Sure the other two will get exclusive western games, but its not going to be the norm. Even if a BLOPS sells a million each iteration on the Wii U, thats enough to keep the ecosystem going.

BLOPS will be the FLOPs in Japan.

 

[Celine]

I've no doubt at this point that Nintendo's supremacy in the handheld market is going to continue, but simply looking at the numbers for the console sales its obvious to me that all it will take is for WiiU to underperform slightly, and PS4/Orbis to mildly exceed expectations and the whole situation could be reversed.

Then hope WiiU have the same level of third-party support as the Wii.

Because Wii "won" Japan but it did so mostly on the strenght of Nintendo franchieses alone (there are a few third-party outliners like MH3, Taiko or Dragon Quest but I would say third-party support was even worse ,sales-wise, than in western markets).

Anyway both PS3 and Wii total sales were underwhelming.

 

[BishopLamont]

BLOPS will be the FLOPs in Japan.

COD is on trending upwards in Japan

 

[metalslimer]

Sure, I do admit this can happen as well, I just for don't think is likely.

Aren't you one of the people that thinks Vita will have a full sales recovery? Anyway you're talking about 3rd party support which I think will be more like a Wii situation than not, but 3rd party support does not necessarily determine who will dominate. When those 3rd party games are targeted at the west, no one in Japan will care. So basically you're left with the few big Japanese 3rd party games that haven't gone to handhelds which are Final Fantasy, Metal Gear, Yakuza, Resident Evil, and Tales.

 

[thehypocrite]

Well what are we discussing- hardware and total software sales, or 3rd party support?

If we are only concerned with 3rd party support, then yes, NSMB and Wii Fit probably do not really figure into the equation.

However, I would argue that there are signs that Nintendo will do better with 3rd party support than they did with Wii:

-The market is simply a lot less favorable to Sony than it was in 2005 and 2006. I would hope we can all agree on that. Even if we concede that 3rd party sales are generally decent now, it still took years for that to happen and it took a near total ignoring of Wii.

-Even with not that many games announces, 3rd party support in terms of core game offerings is already better than what the Wii received during its first year:

-During its first year on the market, two 3rd party games broke 200K- Dragon Quest Swords in July 2007, and Umbrella Chronicles which released in November 2007. Two on rails spin offs.

-By comparison, Wii U will receive a Monster Hunter game which will likely sell 500K or so at launch. Dragon Quest X is supposed to arrive during the Spring. I would argue that from a core game perspective, those 2 titles are both more important than anything released in the Wii's first year. This is important because these titles could help cultivate a userbase more receptive to core game 3rd party efforts. Add in the year head start over PS4 and I feel the 3rd party situation is a lot better this time around.

I think you're a 100% right in the above, the Wii U 3rd party support will be better than the one Wii received in its early years, no argument from me about that. However I don't think I'll be enough to "dominate". They'll get ports of PS3/Wii and 3DS games, which is better than what the Wii received but it won't be ideal. They need ports of the multiplatform titles that are created thinking about nextbox/PS4 and PC. Right now that doesn't seems to be the case. I think that the perception that they are to close to the low end of performance will cause the 3ds/mobile and PS3 to disrupt the Wii U in Japan.

 

[Clear]

PS3 can catch up to the Wii all it wants, the Wii U is gonna be out now.

This is business, every sale counts on the balance sheets. You can't summarily discount positives by reframing the parameters of the debate.

Is the WiiU likely to outsell the PS3 at initial launch? Of course it should its a new product! However over its own active lifespan as a saleable commodity is it likely to outsell PS3? How about Wii?

Aren't those the core details that will decide whether WiiU will be judged historically to be a success or a failure?

 

[metalslimer]

I think that the perception that they are to close to the low end of performance

Once again, you highly overestimate the importance of specs in Japan. Japan is not the west. The only perception that will matter is if people see the Wii U gamepad as a valuable addition.

However over its own active lifespan as a saleable commodity is it likely to outsell PS3? How about Wii?

As long as Nintendo doesn't abandon it it should outsell the PS3. Iffy on the Wii. The only reason the Wii is selling like shit in Japan is because Nintendo stopped making games for it.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

Once again, you highly overestimate the importance of specs in Japan. Japan is not the west. The only perception that will matter is if people see the Wii U gamepad as a valuable addition.

Correct, in the West social features, online, and tech sell systems to users and third parties. In Japan, none of those matter which is why it is a different ballgame.

 

[H_Prestige]

This is business, every sale counts on the balance sheets. You can't summarily discount positives by reframing the parameters of the debate.

Is the WiiU likely to outsell the PS3 at initial launch? Of course it should its a new product! However over its own active lifespan as a saleable commodity is it likely to outsell PS3? How about Wii?

Aren't those the core details that will decide whether WiiU will be judged historically to be a success or a failure?

What I've learned from these threads is that people like to change the parameters of success and failure to whatever suits their agenda. When 3DS and Wii U LTDs come back drastically lower than their predecessors, I doubt you will hear much noise over it like with the ps3. Or about the billions nintendo spent on 3DS they've yet to recoup.

As long as Nintendo doesn't abandon it it should outsell the PS3.

Not going to happen, with or without mario.

 

[Celine]

Is the WiiU likely to outsell the PS3 at initial launch? Of course it should its a new product!

Tell that to Vita lol

 

[BishopLamont]

This is business, every sale counts on the balance sheets. You can't summarily discount positives by reframing the parameters of the debate.

Is the WiiU likely to outsell the PS3 at initial launch? Of course it should its a new product! However over its own active lifespan as a saleable commodity is it likely to outsell PS3? How about Wii?

Aren't those the core details that will decide whether WiiU will be judged historically to be a success or a failure?

If the Wii U costed Nintendo billions and it never recouped all that money during its entire lifespan, I would call it a failure. Isn't that how a product's success should be judged? Lets not even go there, the PS3 lost the dominance it had from the PS1 and PS2, it lost exclusivity to virtually all of the big third party games that it had and now the Playstation brand is so tarnished that the Vita is bombing and now all the pressure is on the PS4 to not only win over its competition but make enough profit to make up all of the PS3's failure.

What I've learned from these threads is that people like to change the parameters of success and failure to whatever suits their agenda. When 3DS and Wii U LTDs come back drastically lower than their predecessors, I doubt you will hear much noise over it like with the ps3. Or about the billions nintendo spent on 3DS they've yet to recoup.

Oh wow, lol.

 

[schuelma]

What I've learned from these threads is that people like to change the parameters of success and failure to whatever suits their agenda. When 3DS and Wii U LTDs come back drastically lower than their predecessors, I doubt you will hear much noise over it like with the ps3. Or about the billions nintendo spent on 3DS they've yet to recoup.

.

You seem to be veering into fanboy warz territory, but I'll just ask you straight up- what do you predict Wii U to sell LTD? PS4?

 

[thehypocrite]

Aren't you one of the people that thinks Vita will have a full sales recovery? Anyway you're talking about 3rd party support which I think will be more like a Wii situation than not, but 3rd party support does not necessarily determine who will dominate. When those 3rd party games are targeted at the west, no one in Japan will care. So basically you're left with the few big Japanese 3rd party games that haven't gone to handhelds which are Final Fantasy, Metal Gear, Yakuza, Resident Evil, and Tales.

What I think in regards to the Vita has no bearing on this thread/discussion, if you want to know that please feel free to go through my post history. Well in Japan the DS dominated, it had excellent 3rd party support, the PS2 dominated had excellent 3rd party support. It seems to me that the last dominating console and handheld had a very strong position and performance based on the fact they were the hardware to get if you wanted the best/richest software support. Right now the 3ds is also dominating, it also has the best 3rd party support, likewise to the PS3 on a lesser level in regards to consoles. I think having adequate 3rd party support isn't enough, to really dominate the console must be the one to get, the one gateway to the most extensive catalog of games for that particular generation. This is something that has been true for japan ever time.

Once again, you highly overestimate the importance of specs in Japan. Japan is not the west. The only perception that will matter is if people see the Wii U gamepad as a valuable addition.



As long as Nintendo doesn't abandon it it should outsell the PS3. Iffy on the Wii. The only reason the Wii is selling like shit in Japan is because Nintendo stopped making games for it.

Is not that, if all the Wii u can offer is the same games already present on 3ds or PS3 why would someone buy it when the alternatives are cheaper?


Edit: also is the fact that no one is making Wii games, if it hard 3rd party support it would have legs. See PS2 for example of majestic legs at work.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

As long as Nintendo doesn't abandon it it should outsell the PS3. Iffy on the Wii. The only reason the Wii is selling like shit in Japan is because Nintendo stopped making games for it.

Nintendo's pushing hard for 3rd parties in Japan, they already have arguably the best launch lineup ever for a console in terms of 3rd party software for the region. I think it has a good shot at outperforming Wii longterm largely because Nintendo's trying to cast a wider net and serve more audiences than Wii did. It really seems to me like Wii U is being positioned as a system to replace both Wii and PS3, much like how 3DS was positioned as the natural place to go after retiring your DS or PSP.

 

[H_Prestige]

You seem to be veering into fanboy warz territory, but I'll just ask you straight up- what do you predict Wii U to sell LTD? PS4?

Around 50-60 million for all three is my optimistic guess. I can't see anyone of them getting more than that.

 

[Clear]

Tell that to Vita lol

That's why I wrote SHOULD not will

I take nothing for granted.

 

[BishopLamont]

Is not that, if all the Wii u can offer is the same games already present on 3ds or PS3 why would someone buy it when the alternatives are cheaper?

Because its not the same games, unless you want to discount practically every sequel ever made. Seriously.

Around 50-60 million for all three is my optimistic guess. I can't see anyone of them getting more than that.

Talk about a boring prediction. If you predict that, then you're expecting the Wii U to never really peak and instead sell less/evenly every year, which is unreasonable.

About 5 million

Lol.

Oh god.

RIP next-gen consoles.

You realise NSMB U, MH, DQ alone will push the console near 5M already?

 

[schuelma]

Around 50-60 million for all three is my optimistic guess. I can't see anyone of them getting more than that.

I am asking about Japan, the topic of this thread.

 

[H_Prestige]

I am asking about Japan, the topic of this thread.

About 5 million

 

[schuelma]

About 5 million

Ok. So Wii U is going to sell less than half what Wii sold and about half of the PS3. In other words, back to GameCube levels.

I predict Wii will get close to 5 million sometime in 2014.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

I think you're a 100% right in the above, the Wii U 3rd party support will be better than the one Wii received in its early years, no argument from me about that. However I don't think I'll be enough to "dominate". They'll get ports of PS3/Wii and 3DS games, which is better than what the Wii received but it won't be ideal. They need ports of the multiplatform titles that are created thinking about nextbox/PS4 and PC. Right now that doesn't seems to be the case. I think that the perception that they are to close to the low end of performance will cause the 3ds/mobile and PS3 to disrupt the Wii U in Japan.

I think Japanese devs see the WiiU as "good enough" and make it their lead system. In the West the new Sony/MS systems will be the lead systems so I feel we'll see a big divide on Western/Eastern games (notice the lack of the GTA game). Basically if you like offline, single player Japanese games, the WiiU will be your system. East and West developers won't go down the same path like they did this gen IMO.

 

[thehypocrite]

Because its not the same games, unless you want to discount practically every sequel ever made. Seriously.


Talk about a boring prediction. If you predict that, then you're expecting the Wii U to never really peak and instead sell less/evenly every year, which is unreasonable.


Lol.

Oh god.

RIP next-gen consoles.

You realise NSMB U, MH, DQ alone will push the console near 5M already?

So 3rd party ports aren't the same games? Isn't MH a port if the 3ds games, isn't dragon quest the same? Isn't the 95% of the announced 3rd party support just PS3 and Xbox 360 ports? Are you Reggie?

5 million? Sure, but in which time frame?

 

[schuelma]

5 million? Sure, but in which time frame?

By summer 2014 I predict.

 

[H_Prestige]

Ok. So Wii U is going to sell less than half what Wii sold and about half of the PS3. In other words, back to GameCube levels.

I predict Wii will get close to 5 million sometime in 2014.

So you think it will sell like the Wii did? Despite lacking the Wii's appeal, it's price point, and the shrinking console market?

 

[BishopLamont]

So 3rd party ports aren't the same games? Isn't MH a port if the 3ds games, isn't dragon quest the same? Isn't the 95% of the announced 3rd party support just PS3 and Xbox 360 ports? Are you Reggie?

5 million? Sure, but in which time frame?

They're big games that will help sell the systems and most importantly its real pledge of support. Do you think Capcom and SE will release only those two games in those two series and stop there? Come on, look at the bigger picture.

In which time frame? Does it matter? Do you really think it'll only sell 5M? Do you remember how bad the PS3 was selling and its at 8M+? Thats a figure pulled straight from the ass with no thinking backed up whatsoever.

So you think it will sell like the Wii did? Despite lacking the Wii's appeal, it's price point, and the shrinking console market?

No one said it'll sell like the Wii, but its certainly not anywhere near GC territories which is what you're predicting.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

So you think it will sell like the Wii did? Despite lacking the Wii's appeal, it's price point, and the shrinking console market?

It has a better lineup than Wii did though. More diversity, better support, bigger sellers.

Does anyone expect PS4 coming in with a better lineup than PS3?

 

[schuelma]

So you think it will sell like the Wii did? Despite lacking the Wii's appeal, it's price point, and the shrinking console market?

"lacking the Wii's appeal" is an entirely subjective viewpoint you have.

You and others for the most part have failed to address my main argument for success, at least in the short term- it is launching with proven software.

What is your PS4 prediction?

 

[metalslimer]

What I've learned from these threads is that people like to change the parameters of success and failure to whatever suits their agenda. When 3DS and Wii U LTDs come back drastically lower than their predecessors, I doubt you will hear much noise over it like with the ps3. Or about the billions nintendo spent on 3DS they've yet to recoup.



Not going to happen, with or without mario.

Yes, the 3DS and Wii U are just like the PS3!! *rolls eyes* Oh please man. If the PS3 had sold 20 million it's "success" wouldn't have been called into a question . The reason you hear about with the PS3 is Sony lost 4 fucking billion dollars which you know well and good so don't try and shift the argument to suit YOUR own agenda.

What I think in regards to the Vita has no bearing on this thread/discussion, if you want to know that please feel free to go through my post history.

Well we're talking about likely scenarios, and yet for Vita you seem to adopted one that has about a 1% chance of happening.

 

[thehypocrite]

By summer 2014 I predict.

I think they'll reach it in the 1st calendar quarter of 2015 (January-March)

 

[H_Prestige]

It has a better lineup than Wii did though. More diversity, better support, bigger sellers.

Does anyone expect PS4 coming in with a better lineup than PS3?

Do you think it will sell more than the Wii (12 million)? Because that would be a ridiculous claim.

It will end up less than the Wii, that's for sure. Less than the ps3 as well because it won't have a monopoly on major japanese games like it did, and there's the shrinking console market due to 3DS. And I also think you're jumping the gun on better support. Too early to say how that situation ends up, too many different factors to consider.

"lacking the Wii's appeal" is an entirely subjective viewpoint you have.

You and others for the most part have failed to address my main argument for success, at least in the short term- it is launching with proven software.

What is your PS4 prediction?

What proven software did the wii launch with? What proven software launched with the DS, ps1, and ps2?

PS4 will end around 3-4 million at best.

Yes, the 3DS and Wii U are just like the PS3!! *rolls eyes* Oh please man. If the PS3 had sold 20 million it's "success" wouldn't have been called into a question . The reason you hear about with the PS3 is Sony lost 4 fucking billion dollars which you know well and good so don't try and shift the argument to suit YOUR own agenda.

What is my agenda? How much profit has 3DS generated for Nintendo after a year than a half on the market?

 

[Hero]

So the console market is going to shrink from a total 22.5 million units (Wii + PS3 + 360) to 9 million (5 million Wii U + 4 million PS4) next generation?

I would love to see how you back up that claim.

 

[thehypocrite]

They're big games that will help sell the systems and most importantly its real pledge of support. Do you think Capcom and SE will release only those two games in those two series and stop there? Come on, look at the bigger picture.

In which time frame? Does it matter? Do you really think it'll only sell 5M? Do you remember how bad the PS3 was selling and its at 8M+?

that's not what you posted, if you're not going to stay coherent in your arguments then we cannot have a coherent discussion. Right the old port test that publishers are known for.

I never stated that it won't get support, completely different I acknowledged that it would get more support than the Wii, however my entire point is that it won't get premier software support and its unlikely to get more support than 3ds and PS3 which will seriously hamper its possibility to establish itself as the dominant platform once its the fist next gen console released. Yes I do think Wii u is next gen.

"lacking the Wii's appeal" is an entirely subjective viewpoint you have.

You and others for the most part have failed to address my main argument for success, at least in the short term- it is launching with proven software.

What is your PS4 prediction?

My point is that because the competitive landscape has changed the Wii U is unlikely to become a dominant force in japan, the 3ds is too strong and the PS3 and mobile are viable enough as platforms to make it likely. The software support is better than Wii, but lesser in comparison to what's available on the 3ds and PS3. In japan the audiences have proven time and time again that they are OK supporting handhelds and old consoles until the new ones become viable, which will trow a wrench on the expectation that the Wii U will become the de facto console or platform.

This is my opinion, I do admit I can be wrong, but I haven't seen anyone presenting arguments besides "its Nintendo, its gonna be a slam dunk, ports of games already present in cheaper platforms and better support than Wii"

I think that in order for for the Wii U to dominate in japan, it needs better than what I've seen so far.

About PS4? Who knows, we have 0 official details about that, however I don't think Wii u needs to worry about that in its first year. They are competing against 3dsxl/mobile and Ps3.

 

[Celine]

I still think a home console can sell more than 15M in Japan.

 

[Hero]

that's not what you posted, if you're not going to stay coherent in your arguments then we cannot have a coherent discussion. Right the old port test that publishers are known for.

I never stated that it won't get support, completely different I acknowledged that it would get more support than the Wii, however my entire point is that it won't get premier software support and its unlikely to get more support than 3ds and PS3 which will seriously hamper its possibility to establish itself as the dominant platform once its the fist next gen console released. Yes I do think Wii u is next gen.



My point is that because the competitive landscape has changed the Wii U is unlikely to become a dominant force in japan, the 3ds is too strong and the PS3 and mobile are viable enough as platforms to make it likely. The software support is better than Wii, but lesser in comparison to what's available on the 3ds and PS3. In japan the audiences have proven time and time again that they are OK supporting handhelds and old consoles until the new ones become viable, which will trow a wrench on the expectation that the Wii U will become the de facto console or platform.

This is my opinion, I do admit I can be wrong, but I haven't seen anyone presenting arguments besides "its Nintendo, its gonna be a slam dunk, ports of games already present in cheaper platforms and better support than Wii"

I think that in order for for the Wii U to dominate in japan, it needs better than what I've seen so far.

About PS4? Who knows, we have 0 official details about that, however I don't think Wii u needs to worry about that in its first year. They are competing against 3dsxl/mobile and Ps3.

So you expect third parties to continue to release games on the PS3 and not port any of them to Wii U?

 

[schuelma]

So the console market is going to shrink from a total 22.5 million units (Wii + PS3 + 360) to 9 million (5 million Wii U + 4 million PS4) next generation?
.

Right, that is just ridiculous.

 

[H_Prestige]

So the console market is going to shrink from a total 22.5 million units (Wii + PS3 + 360) to 9 million (5 million Wii U + 4 million PS4) next generation?

I would love to see how you back up that claim.

How much does the ps3 sell per year over there? About a million? Can't see Wii U selling more than that. Figure it will be on the market about 6 years. So I guess maybe 6-7 million is more realistic, but still less than the Wii, and way less than the ps2, which was like 20 million or something.

The home console leader has gone down significantly this gen, no reason to assume the trend won't continue into next gen.

 

[schuelma]

How much does the ps3 sell per year over there? About a million? Can't see Wii U selling more than that. Figure it will be on the market about 6 years. So I guess maybe 6-7 million is more realistic, but still less than the Wii, and way less than the ps2, which was like 20 million or something.
.

Wow. Just wow.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Do you think it will sell more than the Wii (12 million)? Because that would be a ridiculous claim.

It will end up less than the Wii, that's for sure. Less than the ps3 as well because it won't have a monopoly on major japanese games like it did, and there's the shrinking console market due to 3DS. And I also think you're jumping the gun on better support. Too early to say how that situation ends up, too many different factors to consider.

It casts a wider net than Wii did is all. That might lead to a greater end ltd than Wii or it might not, but at this stage I'd say Wii U is looking like the only system with any real shot at outperforming it's predecessor (3DS won't, Vita definitely won't, PS4 looking at a rough road, lol @ Durango). Wii's at ~12.5m now btw, it'll crawl to about 13m probably.

And I'm talking purely launch for 3rd party comparisons. Wii U destroys not only Wii but also PS3 in that context, and really it even betters PS2. It's the best 3rd party console launch the region has ever seen, bar none.

 

[thehypocrite]

So you expect third parties to continue to release games on the PS3 and not port any of them to Wii U?

No, the opposite, I'm expecting exactly that, which even though is better than the Wii situation makes it difficult for an individual to buy a Wii U instead of a PS3 or 3dsxl when they are cheaper and have those same games, a bigger library and even cheaper used games available. These factors will play against the Wii u becoming the dominant platform in japan.

 

[Moor-Angol]

And I'm talking purely launch for 3rd party comparisons. Wii U destroys not only Wii but also PS3 in that context, and really it even betters PS2. It's the best 3rd party console launch the region has ever seen, bar none.

Monster Hunter HD : porting
Ninja Gaiden 3 : porting
Warriors Orochi 2 : porting
Batman AA : porting
AssCreed 3 : multi
CoD:BOPS 2 : multi
Tekken Tag 2 : multi
FIFA 13 : multi
ZombiU : exclusive
Sport Connection : exclusive

wow, a great 3rd party line-up indeed...
and i feel that, except for MonHunHD, all those titles will sell very little