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April 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes May 12th

ZhugeEX

Banned
Did hermain appear when chad got banned? Did not notice him before.

They both joined back in fall 2014 within one week of each other. (probably registered around the same time as approval time can vary).

They both started posting in May 2015 within a couple of days of each other.

Coincidence?
 
They both joined back in fall 2014 within one week of each other. (probably registered around the same time as approval time can vary).

They both started posting in May 2015 within a couple of days of each other.

Coincidence?
I have to see this in excel...
 

TomShoe

Banned
Looks like Chad got a little too loose in the Splatoon Voice Chat thread :^/ Shame too, he seemed pretty apologetic after going on a tirade in here.

We already have 3 dead juniors between last month's NPD & This month's prediction thread. Hopefully Cain can break the streak, he seems like a good guy.

They both joined back in fall 2014 within one week of each other. (probably registered around the same time as approval time can vary).

They both started posting in May 2015 within a couple of days of each other.

Coincidence?

It's not a coincidence unless we have a chart for it :p
 

Chocolate & Vanilla

Fuck Strawberry
They both joined back in fall 2014 within one week of each other. (probably registered around the same time as approval time can vary).

They both started posting in May 2015 within a couple of days of each other.

Coincidence?

Need to see a pie chart before I can make a decision

Edit: dammit. Please also make a graph to show how much I was beaten by TomShoe
 
With 1 million Pre-orders anybody think Witcher 3 will be number one for May?

At first I wasn't sure considering the size of the series and the heavily PC bias but now I think it probably will.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Just thought this was interesting.

USA Video Game Hardware market

PS4 and Xbox One are currently tracking 55% higher than PS3 and 360 at the same time point (If you align launches).

The PS4 is tracking 86% higher than the PS3 at the moment (aligned launches) whilst the Xbox One is tracking 31% higher than the Xbox 360 (aligned launches).

US1_zpsbotndiki.jpg


The Wii U is tracking -80% lower than the Wii at this current point.

Yes, you are "Graph Man".

I guess you could say that's an Excel-lent title.

hehehe..... yeh ok I'll leave...
 

Nyoro SF

Member
Out of curiousity... when one purchases the ability to view NPDs, do you receive a database of all past information or are you limited in how much data you can view?
 
Out of curiousity... when one purchases the ability to view NPDs, do you receive a database of all past information or are you limited in how much data you can view?

From what I have gathered you need to pay extra for archives, which may be why historical sales are impossible to find.

I of course could be completely wrong.

Edit: When did NPD start exactly? 1979 for games?
 

Nyoro SF

Member
From what I have gathered you need to pay extra for archives, which may be why historical sales are impossible to find.

I of course could be completely wrong.

Edit: When did NPD start exactly? 1979 for games?

Interesting. I need to do more research of course, but I was wondering if anyone knew the process in its entirety.

Given the way it's set up, it wouldn't surprise me if they charged obscenely for a year's worth of NPD.
 
Looks like Chad got a little too loose in the Splatoon Voice Chat thread :^/ Shame too, he seemed pretty apologetic after going on a tirade in here.

We already have 3 dead juniors between last month's NPD & This month's prediction thread. Hopefully Cain can break the streak, he seems like a good guy.

The thing is that Chad apologized twice and promised to better himself in future conversations. However, he went off on a tirade for the third time, which made him come off as insincere.

We actually have 4 dead juniors: Theodore Pewd, Scientific Reason (I find this username so ironic, lol), Malitik Sabu, and Microsoft Chad. Hermain Cain, so far, has been fine.
 
Interesting. I need to do more research of course, but I was wondering if anyone knew the process in its entirety.

Given the way it's set up, it wouldn't surprise me if they charged obscenely for a year's worth of NPD.

There are old news articles for new sites current or gone (Fox, CNN,. NYT etc.) that have tons of history, but a lot of the older articles, or certain articles about markets are all locked behind paywals.

There's a website called newslibrary (look it up) has news from the past out the wazoo, could change history, all behind a paywall.

This is why I assume NPD charges for legacy.
 

Stanng243

Member
The thing is that Chad apologized twice and promised to better himself in future conversations. However, he went off on a tirade for the third time, which made him come off as insincere.

We actually have 4 dead juniors: Theodore Pewd, Scientific Reason (I find this username so ironic, lol), Malitik Sabu, and Microsoft Chad. Hermain Cain, so far, has been fine.

Chad left himself hanging a couple of times. He started saying anyone who didn't agree with himself about Splatoon was insane. And in Amiibo threads, he was annoucing sales figures for Infinity and Skylanders, except he would never tell anyone where he got the figures from. Most likely
his ass.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Chad left himself hanging a couple of times. He started saying anyone who didn't agree with himself about Splatoon was insane. And in Amiibo threads, he was annoucing sales figures for Infinity and Skylanders, except he would never tell anyone where he got the figures from. Most likely
his ass.

Oh, right. I asked him where did he get those sales figures from, especially considering how there were no sources reporting them like that, especially no sources about the sales for specific consoles...I guess I won't get his answer anymore!
 
Chad left himself hanging a couple of times. He started saying anyone who didn't agree with himself about Splatoon was insane. And in Amiibo threads, he was annoucing sales figures for Infinity and Skylanders, except he would never tell anyone where he got the figures from. Most likely
his ass.

I also saw his posts on the PAL thread. He also made the same mistake with The Witcher 3 & WRPGs as he did with Batman by not taking into account the install base shift from last gen to this gen.
 
Just thought this was interesting.

USA Video Game Hardware market

PS4 and Xbox One are currently tracking 55% higher than PS3 and 360 at the same time point (If you align launches).

The PS4 is tracking 86% higher than the PS3 at the moment (aligned launches) whilst the Xbox One is tracking 31% higher than the Xbox 360 (aligned launches).

US1_zpsbotndiki.jpg


The Wii U is tracking -80% lower than the Wii at this current point.



I guess you could say that's an Excel-lent title.

hehehe..... yeh ok I'll leave...

I would of thought PS4 would of pulled away from XB1 more. Maybe another holiday sale and they will be neck and neck.
 

DC1

Member
There are old news articles for new sites current or gone (Fox, CNN,. NYT etc.) that have tons of history, but a lot of the older articles, or certain articles about markets are all locked behind paywals.

There's a website called newslibrary (look it up) has news from the past out the wazoo, could change history, all behind a paywall.

This is why I assume NPD charges for legacy.

A new voice has entered GAF to project insights and industry specific antidotes previously recognized by the few and extremely privileged.
The face of Ben Carson and the name of .. Hermain Cain.

Looking forward to your future post friend.
(All in love)
 

Stanng243

Member
I would of thought PS4 would of pulled away from XB1 more. Maybe another holiday sale and they will be neck and neck.

Quite possibly in the US, although that will be heavily dependent upon the PS4 rumored pricecut. And if the Xbox one "temporary" sale ever ends.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
I would of thought PS4 would of pulled away from XB1 more. Maybe another holiday sale and they will be neck and neck.

This is how the gap has looked since launch.

PS4 started off very well, then the holiday season hit and Xbox One made up a lot of the gap, now the PS4 is back on track to get the gap back to where it was but it remains to be seen what happens this holiday season and if Xbox will again close the gap due to aggressive holiday pricing and Halo 5 launch.

cumulative%20gap_zpsjply2mdy.jpg


Of course worldwide the gap is much larger. Like more than 10x larger.
 
I personally think at the current rate the gap will be the same or only a bit more before October between the gaps.

360 did a good job last gen making it difficult for the PS4 to get that Knockout punch. But I personally thing this will be the season to determine where the XO's future will be.

Quite possibly in the US, although that will be heavily dependent upon the PS4 rumored pricecut. And if the Xbox one "temporary" sale ever ends.

They will end the temporary sale with another temporary sale.
 
I would of thought PS4 would of pulled away from XB1 more. Maybe another holiday sale and they will be neck and neck.

It's basically a battle between the PS4 winning Q1 through Q3 vs. the XB1 winning Q4. Last year, the PS4 outsold the XB1 from Jan. to Nov. more than the amount the XB1 outsold the PS4 last holiday season. What makes things interesting this year is Halo 5 and the anticipated PS4 pricecut.
 

Stanng243

Member
I personally think at the current rate the gap will be the same or only a bit more before October between the gaps.

360 did a good job last gen making it difficult for the PS4 to get that Knockout punch. But I personally thing this will be the season to determine where the XO's future will be.



They will end the temporary sale with another temporary sale.

To be fair, the last time they had around a ~12 day gap where the price went back up. It will be interesting if they do that again.
 

Elandyll

Banned
I would of thought PS4 would of pulled away from XB1 more. Maybe another holiday sale and they will be neck and neck.

As said it will depend on the crazyness of sales and a potential PS4 price drops (which it has so far seen 0 of), but I am curious:

Why do you think that another Holiday will bring the gap down to 0, when the current gap is actually bigger now than it was at the same point in time a year ago?

142161-143220.png
 
To be fair, the last time they had around a ~12 day gap where the price went back up. It will be interesting if they do that again.

Doubt they will do that again since they'll probably start messing with the price in Sept to prepare for the holiday season. Would be funny to see them raise the price back for a couple months though. Will probably have a 35k NPD.
 

TomShoe

Banned
They saw what happened when the price increased. The price drop is permanent. I'd be surprised if MS didn't drop the price to $299 for the holiday. How this holiday goes is completely dependent on how Sony reacts price wise.

Having your console still be the same price 2 years later is not a good look when the competition is $100 cheaper.
 
Chad left himself hanging a couple of times. He started saying anyone who didn't agree with himself about Splatoon was insane. And in Amiibo threads, he was annoucing sales figures for Infinity and Skylanders, except he would never tell anyone where he got the figures from. Most likely
his ass.

lol, no hanging Chads will be counted.

85
 
They saw what happened when the price increased. The price drop is permanent. I'd be surprised if MS didn't drop the price to $299 for the holiday. How this holiday goes is completely dependent on how Sony reacts price wise.

Having your console still be the same price 2 years later is not a good look when the competition is $100 cheaper.

I agree Xbox at $299 is possible, but by how soon will probably depend on what Sony's plans are. if they plan a price drop before November, Microsoft will probably drop to that price earlier, as the first to $299 wins a generation as Don mattrik used to say. The one who drops first will get quite an early headstart advantage and I know MS will probably want that before Sony, especially since they need it more than Sony.
 

Kyoufu

Member
I agree Xbox at $299 is possible, but by how soon will probably depend on what Sony's plans are. if they plan a price drop before November, Microsoft will probably drop to that price earlier, as the first to $299 wins a generation as Don mattrik used to say. The one who drops first will get quite an early headstart advantage and I know MS will probably want that before Sony, especially since they need it more than Sony.

Yeah if MS drop to $299 first they've won the generation. If I were Sony I'd just press the panic button and drop it tomorrow or something.
 

Welfare

Member
Sony should go bonkers and drop it to $199. Live with Wii like supply constraints but with late game Wii production till the PS5 launches.
 
Yeah if MS drop to $299 first they've won the generation. If I were Sony I'd just press the panic button and drop it tomorrow or something.

Yeah pretty much, I can already see the riots in the streets over how Sony ignored their Fans and How Microsoft became a Chinese company after purchase from lenovo.

Sony should go bonkers and drop it to $199. Live with Wii like supply constraints but with late game Wii production till the PS5 launches.

That way when they announce bankruptcy they can say they beat the Wii!!!!!!!!!
 

Cess007

Member
I agree Xbox at $299 is possible, but by how soon will probably depend on what Sony's plans are. if they plan a price drop before November, Microsoft will probably drop to that price earlier, as the first to $299 wins a generation as Don mattrik used to say. The one who drops first will get quite an early headstart advantage and I know MS will probably want that before Sony, especially since they need it more than Sony.

Oh, this got a good chuckle out of me lol well done :p
 
As far as I can tell all fighting games did better on PS3 than they should have by NPD sales.

360 won the first month of Street Fighter 4 sales but it was by a very small margin given the console sales differential. (446k vx 403k)

I feel like it was a very common thing for people to skip fighting games on the 360 due to the awful joypad they used instead of a proper d-pad. Its purely my own experience, but everyone I knew hated that thing and all the folks who were in to fighting games found the joypad unplayable.
 

DC1

Member
lol, no hanging Chads will be counted.

85

Florida Love!

I would add that we should expect a universal price reduction from all players within a 30-60 day span of each other. As others have maintained throughout this thread, the time is near and the moment is clear. Make no doubt that neither player will sit tight without equally responding.

The above is about as obvious of a statement that I can possibly make while wearing my captains hat with scotch in hand, neat.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
They both joined back in fall 2014 within one week of each other. (probably registered around the same time as approval time can vary).

They both started posting in May 2015 within a couple of days of each other.

Coincidence?

This is way too suspect, I'm serious. Astro turfing - Part 2?
 
I agree Xbox at $299 is possible, but by how soon will probably depend on what Sony's plans are. if they plan a price drop before November, Microsoft will probably drop to that price earlier, as the first to $299 wins a generation as Don mattrik used to say. The one who drops first will get quite an early headstart advantage and I know MS will probably want that before Sony, especially since they need it more than Sony.

As memory is not my strength: How long is normally the time between announcement of a price drop and the price drop? Should be close to immediately I guess.

So, normally Microsoft should not know in advance when Sony drops the price (except if the NSA shares some info in exchange for the kinect recordings of course).

Let's say Sony suddenly announces a drop to 299, starting from now on. How fast is it possible for the competition to react? Is it only typing in new prices on the retailers' internet hubs or does this take some more time? Also: You do not make a drop without a marketing campaign with TV-Spots, Banners and Billboards.
Or do you think that, if Sony starts to communicate the drop to retail partners that this will reach Microsoft in a jiffy anyway because someone is always talking?
 

cakely

Member
As memory is not my strength: How long is normally the time between announcement of a price drop and the price drop? Should be close to immediately I guess.

So, normally Microsoft should not know in advance when Sony drops the price (except if the NSA shares some info in exchange for the kinect recordings of course).

It has to be immediate, because when a price drop is announced, it kills sales of the console at the pre-drop price.
 

Welfare

Member
It has to be immediate, because when a price drop is announced, it kills sales of the console at the pre-drop price.

As we saw with the Xbox One last year.

April - 115k
May - 77k (price cut announced in middle of the month)
June - 197k
 
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