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April 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes May 12th

It has to be immediate, because when a price drop is announced, it kills sales of the console at the pre-drop price.

Exactly. So, let's say Sony suddenly cuts the price from now on, how fast could Microsoft react (we don't know, but what do you think?). I guess a panic move could be realised in 2 weeks, worst part of it would be internal discussions and greenlighting, then communicating to retailers.

But in that case there would be not a single marketing activity planned, executed and booked. How long would that take? a month? two? Because only dropping the price without marketing campaign would be quite unprofessional.

(In my case Sony moves first as this would put Microsoft under far more pressure to act than the other way round)
 

crinale

Member
As for price cut a Taiwanese power supply vendor got large order from a Japanese company to be applied to gaming device (found that in 2ch a few days ago. While I can't find the link now but that was legit.) This may be a hint of new PS4 but who knows.
 

Javin98

Banned
Microsoft Chad got banned, who is left? :p

We might get a good predictions thread next month *fingers crossed*

I really wonder where these junior members keep coming from and what they are trying to prove besides that they know next to nothing about sales. Really hoping for a calm discussion next month. Then again, it's these guys who keep the thread alive and it's always fun to prove them wrong, so....
 
I really wonder where these junior members keep coming from and what they are trying to prove besides that they know next to nothing about sales. Really hoping for a calm discussion next month. Then again, it's these guys who keep the thread alive and it's always fun to prove them wrong, so....

Let's keep our noses down. Everyone is welcome as long as he does not make trouble or has an obvious agenda. There are enough full members who swear, make stupid assumptions, stupid jokes or talk trash from time to time. For me, someone who is posting something I do not agree with or even is slightly provoking is 10 times more valuable than the members that seem only to know lol, rofl or braindead gifs.

Only thing juniors should keep in mind is that you have to earn the right to misbehave.
Or as they say in spain:
quod licet iovi non licet bovi
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
PlayStation Million sellers using NPD data.

PS1%20million_zps4mvgtkki.jpg~original

*Please note that FF7 is repeated twice on the list but only counted once in the million seller total.

 

Javin98

Banned
Let's keep our noses down. Everyone is welcome as long as he does not make trouble or has an obvious agenda. There are enough full members who swear, make stupid assumptions, stupid jokes or talk trash from time to time. For me, someone who is posting something I do not agree with or even is slightly provoking is 10 times more valuable than the members that seem only to know lol, rofl or braindead gifs.

Only thing juniors should keep in mind is that you have to earn the right to misbehave.
Or as they say in spain:
quod licet iovi non licet bovi
Agreed. Either way, we'll still have rational discussions ;)
 
PlayStation Million sellers using NPD data.


Numbers for PS3? Xbox? 360? GameCube?

As memory is not my strength: How long is normally the time between announcement of a price drop and the price drop? Should be close to immediately I guess.

So, normally Microsoft should not know in advance when Sony drops the price (except if the NSA shares some info in exchange for the kinect recordings of course).

Let's say Sony suddenly announces a drop to 299, starting from now on. How fast is it possible for the competition to react? Is it only typing in new prices on the retailers' internet hubs or does this take some more time? Also: You do not make a drop without a marketing campaign with TV-Spots, Banners and Billboards.
Or do you think that, if Sony starts to communicate the drop to retail partners that this will reach Microsoft in a jiffy anyway because someone is always talking?

You can communicate with retailers fast, and there are shot-term quick advertising solutions you could implement in a couple days as you're working on spreading the news around more.

If MS hears anything at all that leads to them having enough evidence to believe Sony had a high chance of dropping the price they will drop first, or if SOny announced a price drop MS will announce a price drop.

Basically MS will either drop the price at E3, or wait for a Sony announcement, and if it's not immediate drop before them, otherwise they will drop same day.
 
Numbers for PS3? Xbox? 360? GameCube?



You can communicate with retailers fast, and there are shot-term quick advertising solutions you could implement in a couple days as you're working on spreading the news around more.

If MS hears anything at all that leads to them having enough evidence to believe Sony had a high chance of dropping the price they will drop first, or if SOny announced a price drop MS will announce a price drop.

Basically MS will either drop the price at E3, or wait for a Sony announcement, and if it's not immediate drop before them, otherwise they will drop same day.
Okay. Bonus question: Is E3 the right place for an announcement like that?
You have the maximum audience but also the maximum competition.
 
Okay. Bonus question: Is E3 the right place for an announcement like that?
You have the maximum audience but also the maximum competition.

E3 is only one option as it could be done at Gamescome, or a media briefing, the thing is though is that E3 would be required for maximum impact because that's just what E3 is there for, maximum impact.

Id Sony where to drop first at Gamescom, Xbox has a lower chance to recover due to lack of impact.

At E3 if Sony or MS drops first that will instantly gain a ton of attention very fast, this also applies to the guy who drops second, so it ends up evening the playing field outside of hype generated by games.
 
Battlefront II didn't come out for the Gamecube.

BFII came out on XBOX, PS3, Windows, 360, PSP.


Also if the PS2 version sold 2 million, XBox and PC must have sold mroe than that to reach 8.
 

Moneal

Member
E3 is only one option as it could be done at Gamescome, or a media briefing, the thing is though is that E3 would be required for maximum impact because that's just what E3 is there for, maximum impact.

Id Sony where to drop first at Gamescom
, Xbox has a lower chance to recover due to lack of impact.

At E3 if Sony or MS drops first that will instantly gain a ton of attention very fast, this also applies to the guy who drops second, so it ends up evening the playing field outside of hype generated by games.

Sony won't drop it at Gamescom, they are not going to do a conference there. They might at Paris Games Week in October, since they are going to have a conference there instead.
 

donny2112

Member
Oh wait there wasn't a Gamecube version?

BINGO!

Edit:
Think that should've been Rogue Squadron II. Why any publisher would think to skip GameCube for a Star Wars game is beyond me. They tried that with LEGO Star Wars, and then the publisher changed (actually, Eidos was sold, so the owner of the publisher changed), the new pub owner of the pub came out with a GameCube version, and it outsold the 6-month earlier released Xbox version. Even an online focused Star Wars game should've been seriously considered for GameCube.
 
Sony won't drop it at Gamescom, they are not going to do a conference there. They might at Paris Games Week in October, since they are going to have a conference there instead.

I don't think you read that post which was nothing but possible scenarios, and you have provided a scenario which would be HORRIBLE to drop the price at October when the competition will surely drop before that.

I expect all price drops at E3, whether they will be immediate I do not know, but they will be announced most likely.
 

TomShoe

Banned
Okay. Bonus question: Is E3 the right place for an announcement like that?
You have the maximum audience but also the maximum competition.

My guess is that they'll drop the price during the Paris conference or sometime similar, as close to the holiday shopping season as possible. Dropping it during E3 will get the most attention, but IMO it won't make the most sense because while the drop will have an immediate impact, it'll wear off by the time the shopping season rolls around, as well as give Microsoft plenty of time to cut their own price and steal momentum. Microsoft announced their drop to $349 on November 2. The main reason to do this was to attract a lot of the casual parents buying consoles for their children, and to push many fence sitters planning to buy one over the edge. This was also during the shopping season to ensure it had as large of an impact as possible. It worked very well and made a deep cut into Sony's lead up until January. I see no reason for Sony to not do the same if they have a cut lined up.

Though again, they should seriously consider cutting the price by $100 or not at all, as a $50 cut would have the same impact as if they'd just kept the price the same or bundled in a few games. Anyone who really wanted a PS4 would buy one anyway, but the casuals and fence-sitters would gravitate towards whatever system was cheaper.

Just IMO.
 

Welfare

Member
My guess is that they'll drop the price during the Paris conference or sometime similar, as close to the holiday shopping season as possible. Dropping it during E3 will get the most attention, but IMO it won't make the most sense because while the drop will have an immediate impact, it'll wear off by the time the shopping season rolls around, as well as give Microsoft plenty of time to cut their own price and steal momentum. Microsoft announced their drop to $349 on November 2. The main reason to do this was to attract a lot of the casual parents buying consoles for their children, and to push many fence sitters planning to buy one over the edge. This was also during the shopping season to ensure it had as large of an impact as possible. It worked very well and made a deep cut into Sony's lead up until January. I see no reason for Sony to not do the same if they have a cut lined up.

Though again, they should seriously consider cutting the price by $100 or not at all, as a $50 cut would have the same impact as if they'd just kept the price the same or bundled in a few games. Anyone who really wanted a PS4 would buy one anyway, but the casuals would gravitate towards whatever system was cheaper.

Just IMO.
Also the Paris show is the same day as Halo 5, so what better way to counteract Halo then a $100 price cut?
 

donny2112

Member
Don't see Rogue leader on there, do you think they meant that?

Yeah. Being a Star Wars game, even an online-focused one, it still should've come out for (or at least been seriously considered for) GameCube release. That system launched with Rogue Squadron II (it was the only game I bought at launch) and always had a really strong presence/sales result for Star Wars games.
 
My guess is that they'll drop the price during the Paris conference or sometime similar, as close to the holiday shopping season as possible. Dropping it during E3 will get the most attention, but IMO it won't make the most sense because while the drop will have an immediate impact, it'll wear off by the time the shopping season rolls around, as well as give Microsoft plenty of time to cut their own price and steal momentum. Microsoft announced their drop to $349 on November 2. The main reason to do this was to attract a lot of the casual parents buying consoles for their children, and to push many fence sitters planning to buy one over the edge. This was also during the shopping season to ensure it had as large of an impact as possible. It worked very well and made a deep cut into Sony's lead up until January. I see no reason for Sony to not do the same if they have a cut lined up.

Though again, they should seriously consider cutting the price by $100 or not at all, as a $50 cut would have the same impact as if they'd just kept the price the same or bundled in a few games. Anyone who really wanted a PS4 would buy one anyway, but the casuals and fence-sitters would gravitate towards whatever system was cheaper.

Just IMO.

No most likely at E3 the price cuts will be announced, but probably won't take effect for a month, if they do it ASAP well, it's better than waiting till October or after Gamescom (they can still announce a price drop there conference or not they are there) so the Xbox One gets a ton of momentum for dropping to $299 first, and that will be building for weeks as people are aware of the price, then the Holidays will come and that $299 may come with free games.
 

cakely

Member
I don't think you read that post which was nothing but possible scenarios, and you have provided a scenario which would be HORRIBLE to drop the price at October when the competition will surely drop before that.

I expect all price drops at E3, whether they will be immediate I do not know, but they will be announced most likely.

Price drops will take place as soon as they are announced, of course.

October is certainly a possibility, for both consoles. You can bet the decision whether or not to have a price drop, and when, have already been made. It's extremely unlikely that one manufacturer will "react" to the other, the logistics of a price drop mean that they have to be planned well in advance.
 

Welfare

Member
No most likely at E3 the price cuts will be announced, but probably won't take effect for a month, if they do it ASAP well, it's better than waiting till October or after Gamescom (they can still announce a price drop there conference or not they are there) so the Xbox One gets a ton of momentum for dropping to $299 first, and that will be building for weeks as people are aware of the price, then the Holidays will come and that $299 may come with free games.

Why would MS drop to $299 before Sony if they are already cheaper? MS have no reason to drop the price right now, especially with them bundling games right now.
 
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