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AusGAF 5/5 - Everything's Amazing and Nobody's Happy, a rental at best

L

legend166

Member
The article I read the other day said the RBA shouldn't have even cut rates in the first place.

Also, uBank is still 6.11%, so yay for high interest rates!
 
B

BanShunsaku

Member
Choc said:
deary me i jest ;)


seriously, this is the news limited take on it thats all ;)
Click to expand...

No worries, I'm just tired and grumpy. And sometimes I get sensitive about these things, there are plenty of awesome people that work in banking it is hard when all you ever hear is negative stuff.
 
F

Fredescu

Member
BanShunsaku said:
As the partner of someone who worked in corporate banking for many years, there is so much wrong with this sentence that I think my head is going to explode.

But I won't let facts get in the way of your incessant raging, so carry on.
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Don't worry, they won't, I've tried. Care to explain what's wrong with it? Government backed bank deposit guarantees for the big four, along with an increase in cash savings in general, have increased the deposits for the big four banks which is basically a source of "cheap lending" (compared to the alternatives at the moment). Supposedly a third is coming from the overseas bond market, which is a bit shit at the moment, meaning that third is expensive. Without the deposit guarantee, this slice could be even larger, meaning lending could be even more expensive.
 
R

reptilescorpio

Member
BanShunsaku said:
No worries, I'm just tired and grumpy. And sometimes I get sensitive about these things, there are plenty of awesome people that work in banking it is hard when all you ever hear is negative stuff.
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I don't think anyone could argue that 98% of people in the industry do a great job, it is the 2% that make everyone hate them.

Also NAB customer service has improved out of sight this year so a huge thanks to whoever made the decision to get some nice, happy, helpful people behind the counters. Had some head scratching experiences last year.
 
D

Deeku

Member
The cowboys in the banking industry give us a bad name, but at the same time, those cowboys are really really smart!
 
C

Choc

Banned
commanderdeek said:
I'm sure one of the bank excuses is the volatility of the EU, meaning there are risks associated with sourcing international funds, which is a good reason I think.

Also, I haven't read anything about the recent cut, but I doubt it has anything to do with avoiding effects of the EU.

And yes, I agree with ban too even if I knew choc was "kidding" lol
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direct quote from RBA press release

The sovereign credit and banking problems in Europe, to which European governments are still seeking to craft a full response, are likely to weigh on economic activity there over the period ahead.[/B] Financial markets have experienced considerable turbulence, and financing conditions have become much more difficult, especially in Europe. This, together with precautionary behaviour by firms and households, means that the likelihood of a further material slowing in global growth has increased. Commodity prices have reflected this, declining further over recent months and taking pressure off CPI inflation rates. This has increased the scope for some easing in monetary policy in a number of countries.
 
C

codswallop

Member
Choc said:
so xbox cloud saves is shit

you choose cloud as your storage device and then it access that

no internet? no save game. XBL down? no save game
Click to expand...
I'm pretty sure I read that someone testing it yanked their network cable after choosing cloud saves and games continued to save and load.
 
Y

Yagharek

Member
markot said:
It does when you have a scorch proof mansion and want a nice view!
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Quite.

Also, the new xbox dash is pretty bad. I can get to grips with it fine, but ads are too big, key stuff is obscured behind extraneous layers (game library, friend list) and it's just not layed out all that intelligently - from a user perspective.

I much prefer either simplistic layout a la wii channels, or a systematic layout a la XMB. Hell, even the four-directional Gamecube home menu was far better - although it didnt have as much to deal with.

But hey, at least I know now that if I can buy a rock band song for my rock band setup free home, or I can buy dance central 2 content for my kinect free xbox or I can watch content on foxtel with my foxtel sub lacking xbox.

Also, I did bother to read the ToS upon updating.

Seems like Australians are able to get free repair or replacement for a major or minor hw failure according to section 15a.
 
C

Choc

Banned
RandomVince said:
Quite.

Also, the new xbox dash is pretty bad. I can get to grips with it fine, but ads are too big, key stuff is obscured behind extraneous layers (game library, friend list) and it's just not layed out all that intelligently - from a user perspective.

I much prefer either simplistic layout a la wii channels, or a systematic layout a la XMB. Hell, even the four-directional Gamecube home menu was far better - although it didnt have as much to deal with.

But hey, at least I know now that if I can buy a rock band song for my rock band setup free home, or I can buy dance central 2 content for my kinect free xbox or I can watch content on foxtel with my foxtel sub lacking xbox.

Also, I did bother to read the ToS upon updating.

Seems like Australians are able to get free repair or replacement for a major or minor hw failure according to section 15a.
Click to expand...

that would be the consumer protection act 2010 in action
 
D

Deeku

Member
Choc said:
direct quote from RBA press release

The sovereign credit and banking problems in Europe, to which European governments are still seeking to craft a full response, are likely to weigh on economic activity there over the period ahead.[/B] Financial markets have experienced considerable turbulence, and financing conditions have become much more difficult, especially in Europe. This, together with precautionary behaviour by firms and households, means that the likelihood of a further material slowing in global growth has increased. Commodity prices have reflected this, declining further over recent months and taking pressure off CPI inflation rates. This has increased the scope for some easing in monetary policy in a number of countries.
Click to expand...
Sure, they reference it (hard not to), but it's not why they cut rates. I don't even understand why they cut it really after reading the press release.

I'd say it's probably because their job is basically done, so they just cut it to make people feel better. Like they say in the press release, inflation is on target, growth is on trend...well the RBA's job is done then!
 
J

Jintor

Member
*adds it to the game law pile of shit to research*

Sucks how government departments take about two weeks to respond to anything.
 
K

Kritz

Banned
Shaneus said:
I'll go. I'll bring a packet of gold stars so you can put them on everything.
Click to expand...

reptilescorpio said:
Christmas with the family? I'm in Melbourne next Friday you should come have a few drinks! Or whatever the customary meeting up thing to do is in Melbourne.
Click to expand...

Depending on if I leave on the Saturday or Sunday, we can make it an arvo or late-day thing. If I leave on the 28th, I think the plane takes off at 7pm. On the 29th, who knows.

When it gets closer to the date I'll work up a spreadsheet.

I think Aon is free for the 28th, but maybe less so for the 27th. I don't know about the 29th. I'll only be in Melbourne for like four days, unless I grab a hotel and stay for a bit longer and come home separately from my folks. I think the 26th is Australia Day? So I'll be busy then with family.

So the two days that are good for me so far seem to be January 27 (Friday) and Janurary 28 (Saturday). I don't know what times will be good, and I don't know where I'm staying (will be at my cousin's place, I just don't know where in Melbourne it is). So I'll try to work out how Melbourne transportation works for times and stuff.

What are the good bars in Melbourne that are close to where people can access? I also don't know a thing about Melbourne so maybe it's trivial for people to travel around there. There's that Mana Bar thing in Melb, right? But maybe we could do something a little cooler.

I'll make up a spreadsheet as the date gets closer to gauge who might be in for a meetup, if the timing's good for enough people.
 
K

Kritz

Banned
evlcookie said:
Why you up in melb kritz? A holiday?
Click to expand...

Yeah. This year's been a bit of a fucker for my father so we've decided to spend Australia Day with his family for a bit. I've not been outside of Tasmania for about five years, and this will be my third or forth trip to Melbourne ever. Should be fun even if a meetup doesn't work out. Probably go to some bars, spend some money on stupid shit, eat bbq with family, etc.
 
R

reptilescorpio

Member
Choc said:
that would be the consumer protection act 2010 in action
Click to expand...

Well shit, and I just bought my 3rd Xbox too. Well the second one is fine, never had a problem. My launch had a rough life though.

Anyone want to buy an Arcade unit 360 with HDMI port, about 20 months old? Will throw in a 20Gb hard drive, 2 controllers with rechargeable battery packs and the charging unit?
 
H

HolyCheck

I want a tag give me a tag
Kritz said:
Question: Has there ever been a successful melb-gaf meetup?

Also, unrelated, I will be in Melbourne next month from the 24th until either the 28th or 29th. The 28th is a Saturday.

So that's a thing.
Click to expand...


Yeah I'll be keen aslong as I'm not too busy, I know I have a few friends planning trips to Melb in late January so I'll find out what weekends those are
 
C

codswallop

Member
I thought there was talk of something MelGAF related happening this week over the Twitters? Or was it next week? It seemed to fizzle out either way.
 
R

remz

Member
Choc said:
so xbox cloud saves is shit

you choose cloud as your storage device and then it access that

no internet? no save game. XBL down? no save game

PS3 does it like this. saves locally then uploads, so its a backup and not relied upon.

Sigh microsoft.
Click to expand...
Is that seriously how it works? I couldn't figure that shit out at all yesterday but if that's how it is, that's crap beyond belief. Sigh MS INDEED.
 
K

Kritz

Banned
HolyCheck said:
Yeah I'll be keen aslong as I'm not too busy, I know I have a few friends planning trips to Melb in late January so I'll find out what weekends those are
Click to expand...

Who was in charge last time? That person isn't in charge this time.

--

Also, the new Xbox dashboard:

4MhDS.jpg
 
R

reptilescorpio

Member
klee123 said:
I'm in the market for a 3DS.

Anyone know of any good deals in the Brisbane area?
Click to expand...
Dick Smith might still have it for $189.

codswallop said:
I thought there was talk of something MelGAF related happening this week over the Twitters? Or was it next week? It seemed to fizzle out either way.
Click to expand...
I think Cookie has something on and was seeing if anyone else was free. I will be in Melbourne next Friday at 3pm!

codswallop said:
Anyone know where T.J. O'Handjobs is located in Melbourne? Might head there after getting some extra big-ass fries.
Click to expand...
Do they only do fries or can I get some thing else there?
 
M

midonnay

Member
I guess you could ask the question.....if its morally and probably fiscally prudent to impose a rent tax over mining profits...... why not banks?

they're a protected species. eg:government guarantees, public bailouts when shit hits the fan etc.

maybe they'll focus on more traditional banking rather than excessively risky behaviour.
 
J

Jintor

Member
By the way SydGaf Neil Gaiman is in town on the 28th and I am going to go see him. If you are also going to go see him, give us a shout.

DnDAusGaf, fuckin link to the character sheets.
 
A

Agyar

Member
For those of you banging on about interest rates, Crikey has some great (as per usual) coverage of the happenings that isn't limited to talk of grinches and mortgages. I'm going to quote some below because most Crikey stuff is behind a subscription but it's interesting reading. Apologies for the massive post to follow but rather than just rehashing I'd normally post a link but as nobody would probably be able to read them, this is the next best thing.

1. Interest rate rituals and Christmas pantomimes

Crikey Canberra correspondent Bernard Keane writes:

You may be forgiven for being confused about what year it is. It was almost exactly a year ago that we were engaged in a debate about the big banks and how they pass on interest rate changes.

Back then, it was the big four passing on higher interest rate rises than the RBA was dishing out. Now its their -- for the moment -- refusal to pass on the latest cut.

There's plenty of ritual in all this. Wayne Swan attacks the banks. The opposition attacks Swan, and suggests that somehow -- without precisely saying what -- that he should be doing more to force the banks to do the right thing. The proximity of Christmas means that, yet again, the media can invoke Scrooge. The Bankers' Association runs the same lies about cost of borrowing. Yawn.

As Glenn Dyer noted yesterday, we're usually missing half the debate. Most of us don't reduce our mortgage repayments when interest rates fall, so the impacts on demand and areas like retailing are limited (this is the great, overlooked flaw in the arguments of those who believe monetary policy can do the "heavy lifting" of stimulating the Australian economy in the event of another financial crisis). And the media ignores the interests of savers, who stand to lose from falling interest rates.

There's also the simple reality that the RBA takes into account the willingness of banks to pass on rate cuts or rate rises in its decision-making. If the banks decided not to pass on any of Tuesday's rate cut, it'll keep cutting rates until they do, just as it took into account banks lifting rates higher than its own increases in 2010.

Instead, the real impact of the banks' failure to pass on any cuts is on business lending, which directly affects business activity and employment. But that, too, gets ignored by the media in favour of focusing on household mortgages.

The more frustrating aspect of the debate is that it reprises exactly the issues that Joe Hockey correctly raised in 2010 and which ended up going nowhere -- the need for an inquiry into the financial system and a resolution to the basic issue that banks have the role of utilities but are regulated like normal corporations. The government successfully deflected Hockey's well-timed push for a re-examination of financial sector regulation with a limited set of reforms aimed at improving competition, but nothing that was going to cause the big four to lose any sleep -- or any of their super-profits.

In truth, if people end up with the impression that Swan has been somehow remiss in his responsibilities as Treasurer by not being to jawbone the big banks into cutting rates as much as possible, responsibility for that lies with Swan himself. He had the chance to exploit a normally reflexively negative opposition's readiness to pursue financial regulation reform last year and preferred to ring-fence the banks from serious scrutiny. The big banks remain a protected species.

The government can't complain when they take advantage of that.
Click to expand...

Mortgage, interest rate cuts war as serious as the Nullarbor Nymph

by Glenn Dyer

We are in a phony war with bank mortgage and interest rate cuts, which, if it was happening in a fortnight, would be on a par with the search for Big Foot, the Penrith Panther or the Nullarbor Nymph.

Yes, the big four — CBA, ANZ, Westpac and NAB — are sitting back and waiting for one of them to bolt from cover, so they others can get a lead on how much of the 0.25% rate cut to pass on. (Isn’t that price signalling? You can bet that the ACCC is watching closely.)

The tip is that the NAB will break cover some time today with a rate cut of about 0.15 to 0.20% (it only passed on 0.20% of the 0.25% November 1 cut, remember). The NAB has been lending more than the others and has led the move to eliminate some of its income streams by getting rid of some fees and charges, so its finances are said to be the weakest.

The cupidity of the big four banks on the issue of rate cuts and rises has already been exposed on two fronts: two smaller banks, Bank of Queensland and ME (Members Equity) have already passed the cut on in full, even though they do face higher costs for raising funds locally (being smaller and carrying lower credit ratings than the big four.

And, what the media conveniently forgets is that big four banks all have past form.

It’s not new news if they big four don’t pass on all the 0.25% cut. For example, in April 2009 during the global financial crisis — three eventually passed on only 0.10% of the 0.25%, while one passed on nothing.

And remember how the big four boosted their mortgage rates by more than the 0.25% rise in November 2010? How quickly we all forget. A reminder: the CBA and ANZ lifted mortgage rates by 45 and 39 basis points, respectively follwoing the Melbourne Cup day rate rise in 2010. The NAB lifted its standard variable mortgage rate by 0.43% and Westpac by 0.35%.

So we know all banks are bastards. It’s not a new story.

And there are a couple of other points to be made: the cuts won’t have all that great an impact on mortgage holders because, as Crikey pointed out last month, well over half of them repay more than they have to each month, thereby building up equity at an even faster rate than they were doing a year ago. The banks get their money back faster and people will own their houses a bit quicker and newer mortgage holders will find the pressure easing, if they cut their repayments. But most won’t.

And what about savers: they will get less for their term deposits as they rollover (that’s called “rollover risk” at the big end of the market) and will get lower rates on their transaction accounts. For people on fixed incomes, its another blow, and yet you don’t hear much about that and the media only covers mortgage holders (is that because many in the media have mortgages). The damage is greatest among older bank account holders and pensioners.

And you can bet that the banks will be quick to cut deposit rates, and slow to cut rates charged on credit cards and loans to business: all in the name of boosting what’s called their net interest margin and improving their bottom lines.

There’s a large element of churlishness and “let them eat cake” from the big four if you look at recent history.

One of the real achievements of the GFC so far as Australia is concerned, is that we managed to save our banks the ignominy of reporting big losses or worse. Sure Bank West (owned by a crippled UK bank) and St George, were allowed to be taken over by the CBA and Westpac respectively (which hasn’t done wonders for Westpac’s earnings since 2008-09), but a combination of timely Reserve Bank action, the federal government loan guarantees and the financial claims mechanism convinced customers not to do what their counterparts had done to Northern Rock in the UK or countless UK banks, and stage a confidence-sapping run that forces a government bailout.

The federal government (that’s us, the taxpayers), will earn more than $5 billion from the loan guarantee fee by the time this financial year is up and the Reserve Bank also made hundreds of millions of dollars from doing deals with the big banks in the final quarter of 2008 and early in 2009 to maintain liquidity levels in the financial system.

Despite that move, ordinary Australians and small and medium businesses (and no doubt some larger ones) quietly withdrew billions of dollars (over $10 billion by some estimates on top of normal needs) in the closing months of 2008 and early 2009. By June 30, 2009 the number of bank notes on issue was still up 14.3% from the year before, an indication of large the silent run had been. But that didn’t cripple the banks because confidence was maintained as much of that cash was returned to the banks as 2009 went on.

That confidence was supported and nurtured by the federal government and the Reserve Bank, in other words, taxpayers supported the banks and the financial system and saved a lot of loss and anguish for everyone concerned.Three years on the world is facing another crisis, this time in Europe. It is nowhere near as dangerous as the sudden near collapse in 2008 that was sparked by the failure of Lehman Brothers and the US subprime crisis crunching banks, businesses and economies around the world in the space of two months. But it is a growing concern.

Banks throughout Europe have badly hurt this time around, but in the US, Australia, the banks are OK, except for a rise in short-term funding costs, which is normal as investors worry about the safety of the banks they are lending money to.

One of the key indicators to watch is the amount of money held in Exchange Settlement Accounts at the Reserve Bank by banks and other financial groups eligible to do so. If the amount starts rising, its a sign the banks are starting to worry about the safety of the financial system and lending to their peers, so they start leaving as much as they can with the RBA in these special accounts where it is safe.

In the 2008-09 crisis it soared to well over $16 billion on one day (December 22, 2008) as the RBA allowed banks to do so (and then siphoned off much of that into special term deposits).

This time around, there’s been no change at all, the ESAs at the Reserve Bank have been at normal levels for months on end, there’s just no sign of nerves among our banks and financial groups, unlike Europe.

At the same time our banks are healthier than they were in late 2008, much of the dodgy debts have gone, poor loans have been written down or expensed and the banks have raised tens of billions of dollars in new capital to strengthen their balance sheets. That’s why last week’s one-notch downgrade for the big four by Standard & Poor’s to AA minus was a storm in a teacup.

A senior RBA official pointed out in a speech last month that the banks have cut back their exposure to offshore funding since 2007 and lifted their harvesting of domestic deposits: ”In Australia, since mid-2007, deposits have grown at an annualised pace of 11%, compared with credit growth of 5%. As a result, while the level of wholesale issuance by Australian banks in 2011 is about the same as that in 2007, it is a significantly smaller share of total bank funding.”

That has reduced their exposure to Europe, but with the US market still open, its nowhere near the problem of three years ago this month. The big four have cut the amount of offshore funding in the past year because of the strong rise of domestic deposits as the Australian savings rate has steadied around 10% to 10.5%. That has helped the banks maintain their interest margins, even though they started offering relatively high interest rates on deposits.

Those are falling, thanks to the fall in market yields as investors have factored in RBA rate cuts and foreign buyers have plunged into Australian government bonds and state government securities, attracted by our AAA rating and secure and steady financial system. But listen to the banks in recent weeks and their lobbyists and they are facing higher levels of danger and costs.

Given what happened three years ago, that’s rubbish, but don’t think that the current stand-off is something new. It isn’t and we are going to see similar situations time and again.
Click to expand...
 
R

reptilescorpio

Member
remz said:
Goddamnit! hahaha I bought one from harvey norman yesterday
Click to expand...
Yeah I had the gf lined up to go to EB and get them to price match but when I rang to ask them they ended up telling me about this deal that was starting today and I had to spend the afternoon weighing up the options. I didn't really want a Kinect yet but it was the best decision in the long run since I will end up buying the damn thing anyway. Just means I need to re-arrange my tiny Study so the little guy can hug some sexy Double Fine gaming goodness. Which is also a great positive, I can buy another Double Fine game!
 
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