Betting time: Do you think the Switch will be a success?

Will the Switch be a success?


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I honestly would have thought about buying an up-to-date nintendo console for 399,99 euro (let's say as powerful as a xbox one), but i will not buy this thing for 320 euro, i think it's absurd.
However, it may sell well enough depending on pokemon.
 
This is what I don't get about GAF:

VR: "I love these motion controls!"

Non-VR: "Oh man waggle is terrible."

VR doesn't always use Motion controls and there is a lot more to VR then motion controls.....did you play VR? It is not even remotely comparable to using motion outside of VR
 
AS a home console it will flop harder than wiiU.
If they do a 3ds and drop the price and consider it as the new portable nintendo console it has a chance to survive.
 
Zelda, mario, mario, splatoon and more mario. Nothing that will catch the attention of the big public. I expect less than WiiU sales. +20M if they release a good main Pokémon game.


Edit: this post aged like milk lol what was I thinking?
 
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Eventually. I think it'll have a rocky start with good initial sales then some months of lower sales. We'll see what gets announced at E3 because I think there are some good things to come (and it's been a while since I've been a Nintendo Optimist). If I'm wrong and this is basically the our lineup for the next 1 1/2 years or so then I'd say all the doom and gloom is warranted. It also depends on a pricedrop and when it would hit. Would it be a panic price drop like the 3ds? Who knows.

People do need to remember that this is a Pokemon machine, and that it's a single system that has consolidated Nintendo's console and handheld teams. This has been the dream of many Nintendo fans for a long time. From a first party perspective this should be an awesome console unless Nintendo have just lost their damn minds or something and don't produce as many games. Third party wise, I've never expected it to be able to get the highest tech offerings such as Red Dead 2, hopefully titles such as Marvel vs. Capcom Infinite happen though.

I say it's wait and see, but I'm not seeing the comparisons to the Wii U. That thing was $400 and had a much worse launch lineup than the Switch.
 
I do not see this doing well. 32GB onboard storage (or hidden costs), ports of six year old games, no new titles from launch (which is laughable) until April 28th? And even then, a handful of titles in the summer and fall? I have no idea what Nintendo devs have been doing the last three years but it wasn't working in Wii U games and it wasn't working in Switch games, so maybe they're optimizing code for Apple or Microsoft architecture in a hopeful acquisition.
 
I expect an emergency price drop before the thing launch, so I won't judge it now.
But if it doesn't happen, here's how I see the situation :

- It will do good sales at launch (Nintendo fans + hype + relatively low stocks)
- It will crater from may to june
- Splatoon 2 will be the first victim of these low sales
- Emergency price drop alongside the holidays releases
- It should be good after that.

Basically, 3DS situation, but with a probably better start.

It's not a Wii U 2 tho, far from that. I don't think it will do particulary well though.
I dont think the crater situation will be as bad as 3DS. They do have Mario Kart 8, which is still a fan favorite, with battle mode, which was sorely missed in the original, and additional tracks and characters. Also Splatoon being a victim of low sales at this point seems unlikely, at least in Japan. The game has cult status there and a sequel will sell

It will most likely have a new one. But there's already a 3ds one for the end of this year announced, so when would the new one release?

maybe a dual release? not a rarity
I do not see this doing well. 32GB onboard storage (or hidden costs), ports of six year old games, no new titles from launch (which is laughable) until April 28th? And even then, a handful of titles in the summer and fall? I have no idea what Nintendo devs have been doing the last three years but it wasn't working in Wii U games and it wasn't working in Switch games, so maybe they're optimizing code for Apple or Microsoft architecture in a hopeful acquisition.
not a rarity. launch window is really broad on other platforms as well.
Zelda, mario, mario, splatoon and more mario. Nothing that will catch the attention of the big public. I expect less than WiiU sales. +20M if they release a good main Pokémon game.

you completely missed xenoblade 2, fire emblem and Arms but okay

also mario on iphone was downloaded in record numbers. dont know if that counts as a big public

funny how splatoon is now considered a rehash... its only the second game in the series too
 
I'll say just off price alone, the 3ds-centric crowd isn't going to jump on this. They didn't at $249, and they're not going to at $299 plus $XX for online. I don't expect every single wii U owner, all 12 million of us, to jump on-board. So without very strong first year sales, I see developers abandoning ship like they did with Wii U. Based off what has been shown, I'm fine with grabbing Zelda for my Wii U and waiting it out till Mario comes out, which would provide a fair amount of time to see what course the system appears to be on. I was looking forward to stuff like Mario Kart, Smash and Splatoon online, but I'm not paying for online play. I stopped that 3 years ago with both Sony and MS.

It's going to be very interesting seeing how things develop.
 
With tougher competition, past the holidays and a gimmick that wont set anyone on fire, it'll probably do worse than the 3DS and the Wii U, at least till a price cut and more games start coming out.
 
It'll start off decently, taper off a bit and then, unlike the Wii U, course correct itself to stability is my guess. The price is the main thing holding it back from being as much of a must-buy as people would expect it to be, but I highly doubt it will be the abject failure people are assuming of it.
 
Absolutely, I think people underestimate the fact that you can take a multiplayer device with you anywhere, plop it down, and get to business with a friend. I think it'll surprise with how successful it is.
 
As scary as it is, this thing feels like Nintendo were taken completely off guard by the Scorpio and PS4 Pro, and found out too late that they had painted themselves into the exact same corner as before. So they knew straight off the bat they had another Wii U on their hands but were too far along to stop it.

So essentially they have thrown the Switch out the door with a new Zelda and a batshit motion control gimmick mini game collection with the wing and a prayer hope that those will be enough to loop enough people in to build any sort of momentum.

The price did them out of any chance of that, which is a pretty embarrassing display of hubris. If nothing else, they should have foreseen the inevitable death of the dedicated handheld market and ran with the home (secondary) console approach.
 
between 30-50 millions.

But it will have a rough start. Price is too high. But I believe it will have two price cuts in the next 18 months (one before fall and another during/after 2018's E3). Then with all Nintendo games plus the portable games that will launch for it, it will do fine.

But it could be much better if it were more powerful (and for this price IT HAD TO BE), then it could get downgraded ports of the PS4 games, which would definetely help (some people would prefer the portable version of a game if they both played the same and just had worst graphics). This is the main problem of the console.
 
No.

As a home console it is severely limited by its tablet architecture. Everything has to fit into the screen, so battery considerations, no space for a harddrive or disc drive, tiny controllers, etc.

The games are same ol', same ol'. You love Mario, Mario Kart, Splatoon, Zelda, and the like it'll be fine for you, though expect long gaps in between releases. But I don't see it growing the market like the Wii did.
 
[Asmodean];228256599 said:
I think they've made the mistake of marketing it as a 'console' which it clearly falls short as. Unless their 1st party support is legendary, to compensate...

They should be marketing it as a handheld, that can also connect to a TV for 'full screen HD home gaming' ™

It sounds like an impressive handheld gaming device.
It sounds like a terrible console. By comparison to competition.

#edit: also - the price is like $50 too high..
If they market it as a handheld, sales will drop like a rock when people start seeing all Nintendo games are priced at $60.
 
Based on that presentation and what little games we know are coming in 2017, I think it's gonna be somewhere between Wii U and 3DS. I desperately want to be wrong, and I am buying one (but I also bought a Wii U at launch).

I think they dropped the ball insanely hard on that presentation after such an astounding reveal late last year. The price on the controllers and accessories is outrageous. They're pricing out an entire market of people that made the Wii such a success. Families aren't gonna look at this thing and drop $500 to play some Mario Kart.

1, 2, Switch misses the entire point of why Wii Sports was a blockbuster hit. Wii Sports needed zero explanation to play, it was 100% intuitive. There is no way you don't bring this game somewhere and have to sit and explain to each person how it works, how you don't look at the screen, what you're supposed to do, etc. It won't be intuitive.

The launch lineup is insanely weak. They basically have Zelda and that's about it. Skyrim isn't even coming out til the Fall? Like...what the hell are these people thinking?

It's pretty damn concerning.
 
I think it's going to bomb: 300$ entry price, (Nintendo quality)paid online, 70$ normal controller are going to make the console appealing only to Nintendo super fans.
The rest of us can safely wait the inevitable price drop.
 
Yeah I think the capacity for success is there. It'll be popular at launch but once there's a price drop it'll truly fly off the shelf
 
At the present price point?

Probably not. They've (again) gone too high for mass market acceptance.

Asking for subscriptions to use online services is even worse.
 
I don't think the USD price is so bad but the UK price is a disaster.

For £280 you can get a PS4 or XB1 with like 3 games coming with it, not just a console on it's own

My Ps4 slim cost £230 and came with Overwatch + Ratchet and Clank. I could buy another game and that'd take me to about £280. Of course you wouldn't buy a Switch with no games because that'd just be silly so really you'll pay about £310! So what do you do? A PS4 with 4 games or a Switch with 1 game?
 
Not a success I think. It's got some of the same failings as the WiiU in that it feels like a compromised vision. A pure WiiU concept dockable portable
console, without joy cons cost, focused toward performance/price and the only special feature the portability would make sense OR a pure Wii u successor focusing on the joy one and a standard console again maximised for price/performance but without the concessions required for the tablet would make sense. The compromise between the two feels uneasy.
 
After Nintendo's presentation, I would have thought no. But then I read all the negative comments on Gaf and thought back to everybody's predictions for the PS4 and Xbox One in the thread that was recently dug back up. I am now convinced that the Switch will be an almighty success.

I'll Go with This Too! :)
 
I don't think the USD price is so bad but the UK price is a disaster.

For £280 you can get a PS4 or XB1 with like 3 games coming with it and still have money to spare, not just a console on it's own

Even outside of UK the price is really bad in Europe, seriously. In Italy it is 330€ (lol), nonsense.
 
It's more inspired and looks much better than Wii U. It will have Nintendo's portable goodness.
The problem here is the price, so I think that Switch will struggle in the beginning but Nintendo won't let it fail like they did with Wii U.

I wonder when this antra will end
 
No chance.

First it has a steep price compared to the hardware and then we also have to take into consideration cost of games, accessories and memory.

It is DOA baring a miracle.
 
The die hards will love it and it will start off well, but then I think it will bomb more and more over time. The Wii U was more appealing.
 
No, in the current conditions, it should do about the same as Wii U.

Nintendo needs to cut the price by the time Splatoon 2 releases in Japan if they want to have a chance outselling Wii U.
 
These full-body meltdowns bring me back to NeoGAF year after year. I love it.

By last night at 10pm, the this place was anticipating a $250 launch with a bundled game, 128GB of onboard storage, a half-dozen Nintendo-produced retail launches (including a Pokémon game that would cannibalize tens millions of dollars in remaining 3DS sales), $40 controllers, and massive third-party support.

I love it.
 
Probably not but wtf are people saying it's overpriced talking about?

Are there any handhelds as powerful as the Switch at $299? You guys are insane.

The X1 in nvidia's console is 1TF@1ghz.
The switch is rumored to run at ~300MHZ in portable mode. so ~300Gflops.
The K1 is ~300Gflops as well. It is used in the NVIDIA tablet which sells for 200$.

Edit: Also, even if you look at it as a home console. The X1 console is 200$ as well. Running at 1Ghz, the switch is rumored to run at 700Mhz.
 
From my perspective,

This thing is out hunting Nintendo whales, so that's pretty insulting. And trying to position itself as a premium proposition.That intentional accessory price gouging is horrible, paid online is horrible.

Scared.

Arms looks cool, just so scorned by that pay online really
 
With those prices (console/accessories/online), that near absence of third party support from the very start and dearth of compelling exclusives until Mario? I'm comfortable saying no.
 
Nintendo
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Wait you have to use a smartphone app for voice chat? I literally laughed out loud reading that...you've got to be making a joke. Nintendo wants to charge for online and make you get an app to talk to your friends or randoms you meet? If true they really have no idea what they are doing.

https://www.videogamer.com/news/nin...d-service-for-online-play-voice-chat-and-more

Online lobby and voice chat: Our new dedicated smart device app will connect to Nintendo Switch and let you invite friends to play online, set play appointments, and chat with friends during online matches in compatible games─all from your smart device.
 
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