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[BigJonsson]

Trudeau will be in Markham on Saturday for a Town Hall

And this article makes my blood boil http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/john-ivison-cunning-tories-may-plan-early-election-call-with-aim-of-draining-opponents-finances

 

[IISANDERII]

NDP's best ad to date IMO.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJSyMqfd-80

Great ad, hope it's plastered come election time.

 

[gabbo]

tanking economy and well... things seem pretty bad for the incumbents at this point.

Plus with the news of the Iran/US deal. Stephen Harper's "Fear the Muslims. All the Muslims" schtick seems out of touch rather than timely.

He'll stick with whatever Netanyahu says about that deal, even if it is a relatively good deal.
And that PMO response.... It's like a child who can't properly put their thoughts together before speaking, just blurting it out as it comes along.

 

[explodet]

And that PMO response.... It's like a child who can't properly put their thoughts together before speaking, just blurting it out as it comes along.

This is more the vibe I got.

 

[gutter_trash]

He'll stick with whatever Netanyahu says about that deal, even if it is a relatively good deal.
And that PMO response.... It's like a child who can't properly put their thoughts together before speaking, just blurting it out as it comes along.

he will continue licking Bibi's nut sack just to pander to Jewish conservative voters in ONE riding in Montreal that he will not win

Harper's foreign affairs policy is all based on pandering for votes domestically which is damaging to our credibility on the world stage

 

[anaron]

NDP's best ad to date IMO.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJSyMqfd-80

yup. been seeing it advertised before a ton of YouTube vids

love it

 

[BigJonsson]

I like the new CPC ad praising what they did during the 2008 financial collapse, and fear mongered what Trudeau would do and what would happen if there was another unexpected downturn.....


What an ad to release right after the banks say we are in recession

 

[ShinRPGamer]

Anyone else getting really tired of seeing Trudeau attack ads every other commercial break? Why not give us an ad about why we should vote for your party, Harper?

 

[Sch1sm]

Anyone else getting really tired of seeing Trudeau attack ads every other commercial break? Why not give us an ad about why we should vote for your party, Harper?

Between my television and YouTube, I think I've heard enough about Trudeau's hair and

Spoiler

lack of

qualifications. They don't influence my thoughts on the guy, but it stopped being laughable after the first few times.

I think the answer to your question is because there are no reasons we should vote in another Conservative government.

 

[gutter_trash]

if you hammer the same line over and over again, people will start to believe it is true.

reason being why attack ads work, even when they are wrong

Trudeau's problem is that he is not fighting back and he doing the same mistake as Iggnatieff made.... thinking that playing the "nice guy" card will help him win.

Harper has many negatives, 9 years of it. The NDP's ad against the Conservatives revealing the record of shitty appointments is what is need to be revealed

This won't change a thing for me though. I am still voting Liberal. Mulcair just recruited another Separatist this week as a candidate.

 

[Azih]

Between my television and YouTube, I think I've heard enough about Trudeau's hair and

Spoiler

lack of

qualifications. They don't influence my thoughts on the guy, but it stopped being laughable after the first few times.

I think the answer to your question is because there are no reasons we should vote in another Conservative government.

If you look at Conservative astroturfers on the comment sections of the news sites I think you'll see their talking points.

AAA credit rating.... best country during the 2008 recession... envy of the world.. MUSLIMS!

Here's two examples from thestar.com:

"The Conservatives did a good job guiding Canada through the last downturn with their stimulus packages while maintaining good fiscal management and low taxes, and I am confident they will do much the same this time as needed. The investment tax credits and loans that the writer speaks of could be helpful to mitigate the effect of global turmoil in Canada and are therefore worthy uses of our money."

"The left is trying to force Harper to say that we're in a recession when we're not but, then again, this is to be fully anticipated. Despite the fact, that Harper has delivered an excellent budget with a triple A credit rating and is being applauded on the global stage for his wonderful handling of our economy, we can fully expect the incessant whining from the left. A vote for Harper means getting more of our money back with additional tax cuts, no new taxes, being better able to save our money with Harper’s TFSA which especially helps the middle class, having more services, having a balanced budget, having a surplus of 1.4 billion dollars in the first year alone to pour into infrastructure, having greater employment opportunities, being protected from terrorism and not allowing newcomers to replace our Canadian traditions with customs from their homelands"

 

[Azih]

Macleans interview with Mulcair. Dude isn't afraid of attacking on topics that people perceive to be NDP weaknesses.

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/the-interview-ndp-leader-tom-mulcair/

Hits out at Harper over militant adventurism and even at Liberals over separatism which was an interesting read.

 

[matthewwhatever]

I think the worse the economy gets, the more you'll see of the "MUSLIMS!" part. I think they'll also blame the media more and more -- Teneycke/Young's comments about the media not being trustworthy are probably just the beginning.

Trudeau's problem is that he is not fighting back and he doing the same mistake as Iggnatieff made.... thinking that playing the "nice guy" card will help him win.

The Liberals have come out with ads, though. I don't know how heavy an ad-buy they bought, but I know I've seen them on TV a few times. They're a little constrained in how they respond, since they've been so vocal in committing to running a policy-heavy/positive campaign. If they turn around and start slinging mud back, they lose Trudeau's biggest advantage -- he's the only one of the three who comes off as bright and sunny, and if he starts going negative they lose that.

They're also constrained by money -- the Conservatives have a lot of it, and no one else does. That'll be amplified even more if the election is officially called in the next few weeks (see the Ivison story posted above). A big part of these pre-election attack ads is the Conservatives trying to draw the Liberals out now, in the hopes of making them deplete their war chest, before the campaign even starts. It sucks, since it basically leaves the field open to the Conservatives, but there's really no alternative.

Macleans interview with Mulcair. Dude isn't afraid of attacking on topics that people perceive to be NDP weaknesses.

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/the-interview-ndp-leader-tom-mulcair/

Hits out at Harper over militant adventurism and even at Liberals over separatism which was an interesting read.

And yet it's the NDP who have a candidate who was on the governing council of a separatist party in 2013. But sure, it's the Liberals who are soft on Quebec independence.

It's almost as if he says one thing to English media and another to French.

 

[Azih]

Dont' think he said Liberals are soft on independence at all. He said they're bad at the file (based on the squeaker referendum in '95) and stoke the fires in order to drive federalists to their camp.

The fact that the NDP seem to be able to turn separatists into federalists while the Liberals seem to demand some gutter_trash like impossible loyalty tests does kind of seem to indicate the NDP are better at this doesn't it?

And I also don't think he's contradicted himself.... yet... on Energy East. The point stays consistent:

FOR Energy East IF there is a rigorous environmental assessment.

He just emphasizes the first more in English (and waay more in Alberta) and the second waaay more in French/Quebec. What a 'rigorous environmental assessment' actually means is the thing.

 

[matthewwhatever]

1) Is there any evidence that the NDP has turned separatists to federalists? When you have NDP MPs crossing the floor to join the Bloc, and others supporting provincial separatist parties, that doesn't exactly suggest a hardcore devotion to keeping Canada whole.

2) On Energy East...when you have the official NDP Youth account tweeting this:

while at the same time the national party is insisting that, technically, Mulcair never said he was against the pipeline...that's some mighty fine hair-spliting you're doing.

 

[gutter_trash]

Dont' think he said Liberals are soft on independence at all. He said they're bad at the file (based on the squeaker referendum in '95) and stoke the fires in order to drive federalists to their camp.

The fact that the NDP seem to be able to turn separatists into federalists while the Liberals seem to demand some gutter_trash like impossible loyalty tests does kind of seem to indicate the NDP are better at this doesn't it?.

Brian Mulroney, Brian Mulroney, Brian Mulroney. He thought he could win over nationalists by recruited many into the PC. What happened when nationalists got pissed off? Bouchard (PC) created the Bloc with many other PC nationalsits who turned Bloc.

Claude Patry was elected as an NDP MP in 2011 (a nationalist). He got mad at the NDP not being pro-Quebec enough so he defected to the Bloc.

1) Is there any evidence that the NDP has turned separatists to federalists? When you have NDP MPs crossing the floor to join the Bloc, and others supporting provincial separatist parties, that doesn't exactly suggest a hardcore devotion to keeping Canada whole.

2) On Energy East...when you have the official NDP Youth account tweeting this:



while at the same time the national party is insisting that, technically, Mulcair never said he was against the pipeline...that's some mighty fine hair-spliting you're doing.

Mulcair is doing political suicide opposing Energy East.
If Provinces come into a consensus about Energy East and Provinces strike a deal that they agree on. Then Mulcair should listen to the Provinces who managed to deal together regardless of Harper

 

[CitizenVectron]

Turns out that article was in error and he never said he was against it. The article has since been revised with an editor's note saying that they "shortened" his response to "no" when in fact he was trying to be nuanced about it.

New poll out today shows NDP 7 points ahead of Liberals and Conservatives: http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/317/conservatives-fall-back-tied-with-liberals

NDP - 34
LPC - 27
CPC - 27

Of note, the NDP are now expected to win the election by a plurality of Canadians, and Mulcair is seen as the best potential PM.

 

[maharg]

Also that NDP youth twitter account deleted both that tweet and the one where they followed up saying they were looking for clarification, apparently. Overeager volunteers, I guess.

 

[gutter_trash]

Turns out that article was in error and he never said he was against it. The article has since been revised with an editor's note saying that they "shortened" his response to "no" when in fact he was trying to be nuanced about it.

New poll out today shows NDP 7 points ahead of Liberals and Conservatives: http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/317/conservatives-fall-back-tied-with-liberals

NDP - 34
LPC - 27
CPC - 27

Of note, the NDP are now expected to win the election by a plurality of Canadians, and Mulcair is seen as the best potential PM.

Conservatives falling to 3rd place (in terms of seats) would be the best result

 

[CitizenVectron]

Conservatives falling to 3rd place (in terms of seats) would be the best result

Due to voter concentrations, the CPC will outperform the LPC and probably even NDP in seat count at the same federal vote %. So in order for the CPC to fall to 3rd you'd need to see them at below 25% national support and the LPC at 30% or above, I'd think, which is not very likely considering the very strong CPC base. The CPC is very concentrated in western seats and suburban Ontario seats, much in the same way the NDP is concentrated in Quebec, BC, and urban seats. The Liberals are less concentrated except in the Maritimes.

As for what is best, I'd honestly this is my dream:

- CPC wins election with minority, but with less votes than NDP.
- NDP is second, and LPC third, but with a total seat count exceeding the CPC.

The reason I want that exact scenario is this: The NDP and LPC would likely form a coalition government, or at least an LPC-backed NDP minority, and that government would likely push for democratic reform. It would also normalize the idea of a coalition governing the country, which would be needed in a PR or MMR system.

 

[firehawk12]

I just don't see a coalition happening after the disaster that happened last time. It also doesn't help that neither party seems to want to work with each other now.

 

[gutter_trash]

I just don't see a coalition happening after the disaster that happened last time. It also doesn't help that neither party seems to want to work with each other now.

the biggest difference last time was that Dion and Layton did not have enough seats together and had to ask Duceppe for support which was a dumb dumb dumb idea

 

[maharg]

Due to voter concentrations, the CPC will outperform the LPC and probably even NDP in seat count at the same federal vote %.

These kinds of proclamations have a habit of turning out wrong when the swing is large enough. Look at the PCs in Alberta, if I may be a broken record. The PCs actually wound up with second in % and third in seats because their efficiency was extremely poor once they fell behind a particular number. Note that this party was winning often ridiculously outsized majorities for decades before that. And that most pundits thought they'd still take Calgary and do well in south-rural ridings, even at *worse* polling than the numbers they actually managed.

I don't think you can translate the particulars of efficiency past a certain difference in popular vote. Those swings often come from one of their voting blocs collapsing. If the CPC actually performs at these levels, they'll be about 10 points down from where they were in 2011. Out of 39. Over a quarter of their vote gone. All bets are off where their efficiencies hold when it comes to that.

 

[Lexxism]

gutter got banned again. What he did this time?

 

[killer rin]

Due to voter concentrations, the CPC will outperform the LPC and probably even NDP in seat count at the same federal vote %. So in order for the CPC to fall to 3rd you'd need to see them at below 25% national support and the LPC at 30% or above, I'd think, which is not very likely considering the very strong CPC base. The CPC is very concentrated in western seats and suburban Ontario seats, much in the same way the NDP is concentrated in Quebec, BC, and urban seats. The Liberals are less concentrated except in the Maritimes.

As for what is best, I'd honestly this is my dream:

- CPC wins election with minority, but with less votes than NDP.
- NDP is second, and LPC third, but with a total seat count exceeding the CPC.

The reason I want that exact scenario is this: The NDP and LPC would likely form a coalition government, or at least an LPC-backed NDP minority, and that government would likely push for democratic reform. It would also normalize the idea of a coalition governing the country, which would be needed in a PR or MMR system.

While I don't think they will coalition because of their differences in a couple key areas, I can see them at least teaming together on Electoral Reform if they can overpower the seats from a Conservative Minority. Especially since the two parties have said they want something else. If they lose again, it will further solidify their positions on the fact and they will just do it.

In the Conservative Minority situation I think its going to come down to who gets Official Opposition. If its the NDP, we'll go PR and if its Liberals we'll get their "study" and whatever that comes up with.

 

[sikkinixx]

NDP firing up some (relatively tame) attack ads:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmmSV1jtK3s&feature=youtu.be

Pretty good save for the snarky sounding "Have YOU had enough?" at the end. I'm assuming Harper will try to deflect all that and the economy by shrieking "ONLY THE CPC CANADA CAN HELP OUR ECONOMY! WE'RE NOT TECHNICALLY IN A RECESSION!"

 

[matthewwhatever]

These kinds of proclamations have a habit of turning out wrong when the swing is large enough. Look at the PCs in Alberta, if I may be a broken record. The PCs actually wound up with second in % and third in seats because their efficiency was extremely poor once they fell behind a particular number. Note that this party was winning often ridiculously outsized majorities for decades before that. And that most pundits thought they'd still take Calgary and do well in south-rural ridings, even at *worse* polling than the numbers they actually managed.

I don't think you can translate the particulars of efficiency past a certain difference in popular vote. Those swings often come from one of their voting blocs collapsing. If the CPC actually performs at these levels, they'll be about 10 points down from where they were in 2011. Out of 39. Over a quarter of their vote gone. All bets are off where their efficiencies hold when it comes to that.

The Conservatives have historically (by which I mean the last four elections or so) outperformed their polling, so it's hard to know at this point whether they've actually lost a quarter of their supporters or if the people who vote for them just aren't admitting it, but...yeah, pretty much what you said (really good post, by the way). Not only that, the Conservatives generally get an artificial bump of of a few points from Alberta, so...I don't know. I'd love if they dropped to a distant third, and just returned to their Reform roots as a Western Canadian rump of a caucus, but I'm still pessimistic.

Then again, they're almost literally trying to buy votes right now, so things may be even more dire for them than any of us realize.

 

[Azih]

The CPCs have shed a whole lot of talent too. I mean it's only Jason Kenney and Tony Clement left who survived without being thrown to the wolves by Harper (lol Rona Ambrose).

Still who knows how people might jump if the economy gets really bad. Devil you know might come into play.

 

[GSG Flash]

Good article on that monstrosity the Conservatives want to build downtown Ottawa and Harper's obsession with ideologies: http://ipolitics.ca/2015/07/07/we-should-memorialize-the-victims-of-real-perpetrators-not-isms/

 

[Stumpokapow]

Clement did get thrown to the wolves, he just recovered. He was Minister of Industry in 2008 and got bounced in a cabinet shuffle to treasury board because his opposition to anti-circumvention / digital lock protections caused him to argue with Canadian Heritage (James Moore at the time) and DFAIT while handling the C-61 and C-32 Copyright reform bills.

Some people recover better than others by virtue of not being total nutbars.

 

[gabbo]

Clement did get thrown to the wolves, he just recovered. He was Minister of Industry in 2008 and got bounced in a cabinet shuffle to treasury board because his opposition to anti-circumvention / digital lock protections caused him to argue with Canadian Heritage (James Moore at the time) and DFAIT while handling the C-61 and C-32 Copyright reform bills.

Some people recover better than others by virtue of not being total nutbars.

Clement isn't crazy, he's just mostly an asshole. Under Harper, he can thrive, without him though.... not so much

 

[matthewwhatever]

All the Conservative "talent" fleeing probably won't have that big an impact one way or the other. I don't think many people were voting for them based on anyone other than Harper -- it's not as if CPC voters thought they were getting a strong team by voting blue.

Good article on that monstrosity the Conservatives want to build downtown Ottawa and Harper's obsession with ideologies: http://ipolitics.ca/2015/07/07/we-should-memorialize-the-victims-of-real-perpetrators-not-isms/

As hideous as the anti-communist monument is, somehow it's not even the ugliest monument this party is behind -- I think that Mother Canada might just be worse. Less bad in the sense that I'd never have to see it, of course, but still: it makes the communism memorial seem tame by comparison.

 

[Pedrito]

As the money is coming from the federal government budget, should't he be wearing something else?

And what's up with these USSR era monuments? "Mother Canada"? Who the hell came up with that? I thought Canada was a dude.

 

[TheKyle07]

And what's up with these USSR era monuments? "Mother Canada"? Who the hell came up with that? I thought Canada was a dude.

Mother Canada is based on the statue at the Vimy Memorial in France.

 

[Pedrito]

Oh. I didn't know the statue was called that. Thanks.

 

[gabbo]

As the money is coming from the federal government budget, should't he be wearing something else?

Yes. He may have broken some rules in wearing that shirt no less

 

[matthewwhatever]

Apparently the Ethics Commissioner okayed it, even though she starts off by admitting it may look inappropriate. Kady O'Malley also tweeted a screenshot of a press release sent out by one of the Conservative press people offering interviews to anyone who wanted to talk about the cheques from the Harper Government.

I know they've been doing it for years now, but it's just so unseemly and corrupt for them to do that.

 

[matthewwhatever]

Apologies for posting twice in a row, but this is just taking shamelessness to a whole new level:

I get that a big part of why they're making such a big deal about the cheques now is so that they can take a whack at the Liberals' proposed position (scrap the UCCB and make it means-tested so it only goes to lower-income families), but still...I know the Conservatives regularly cross the line between party and government, but even this seems especially appalling, even for them.

 

[lupinko]

I just want to say how much of a good resource this thread is, especially now that I'm currently an expat.

 

[matthewwhatever]

How long term of an expat? Because you may not be allowed to vote for much longer...

 

[Coldnoodle]

Jason Fekete ‏@jasonfekete 4m4 minutes ago
Here is a statement from the Prime Minister’s Office on PBO report that projects $1-billion deficit this year.

 

[BigJonsson]

I can't tell if that is real or not lol

 

[Zombie James]

"Canadians will not be fooled", eh?

 

[gabbo]

Isn't that the exact same response as something they released last week?

 

[explodet]

CRUSH SUPERMAN

 

[Coldnoodle]

Isn't that the exact same response as something they released last week?

PMO response to talk of recession:

 

[LevelNth]

Apologies for posting twice in a row, but this is just taking shamelessness to a whole new level:

I get that a big part of why they're making such a big deal about the cheques now is so that they can take a whack at the Liberals' proposed position (scrap the UCCB and make it means-tested so it only goes to lower-income families), but still...I know the Conservatives regularly cross the line between party and government, but even this seems especially appalling, even for them.

Yea my problem with their stance is that don't seem to want to explain that we live in a world with a graded curve of higher taxes based on higher incomes, understanding the notion that it is only reasonable to ask for more from those that have more.

Why then should this not apply in the inverse to child benefits?

 

[maharg]

It's always funny to see Harper accuse others of being career politicians.

 

[gabbo]

PMO response to talk of recession:

So very close.
Sad and pathetic.

 

[matthewwhatever]

It's always funny to see Harper accuse others of being career politicians.

Come on now, Stephen Harper hasn't been a politician his entire adult life. His non-MP professions run the gamut from politician's assistant all the way to political lobbyist.

On two unrelated notes:
1) 9 PMO staffers have been placed on unpaid leave for unspecified reasons, which may signal a writ-drop is imminent.

2) The Liberals finally have a new ad responding to those "Nice hair" ads from the Conservatives. I'm obviously biased here, but I like it -- if the Conservatives are going to focus their entire campaign bashing Trudeau, then the Liberals need to find a way to turn that around.