You Are Viewtiful
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Ah, the smell of an election.
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Canada Poligaf - The Wrath of Harperland
- Thread starter DreamMachine
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Ah, the smell of an election.
gutter_trash
Banned
re-opening the Constitution means bringing the provinces back on board which means bringing in the case of Quebec never signing in 1982, bringing renegotiations which raise the ire of the First Nations which will lead to another Nationalists backlash which will raise support for separatists
so.. nah, the Constitution won't be re-opened and thank God the NDP won't form government
so.. nah, the Constitution won't be re-opened and thank God the NDP won't form government
You Are Viewtiful
Member
Can't you just make the elections advisory or make a law that says the PM can't appoint any new senators? Sounds like there are still a million and one ways to skirt around this without reopening the Constitution.
I think people overstate this, personally. Yes, they'll probably win many of the new seats, but they won't be winning all of them. Many of them in the west are in very urban ridings that were quasi-gerrymandered to benefit the conservatives (I say quasi because the influence of the conservatives on this was pretty low, though not zero, and it has more to do with shifting demographics since the last census than anything else). I'd bet a nickel on them only winning about half the new seats in Alberta, for eg. I also think they'll lose Edmonton Centre even though it's not changing all that much, because they're losing an incumbent and it's becoming a real urban core very rapidly.
From my understanding the decision basically ruled out all end-runs. It might even have made the Alberta advisory elections (they always have been advisory, btw) unconstitutional. Trying to do an end-run and consult the people in any way may have become illegal.
Also there is no way for parliament to pass a law that prevents the PM from advising the GG on appointments to the senate. Parliament simply does not and never had that right. It's fundamental to our system and can't be bypassed without constitutional amendment.
Tom Mulcair may lose his seat to a Liberal
I know nothing about the Quebec redraws, but nothing's forcing Mulcair to stay in Outremont. He's a party leader, he can run wherever he knows he'll win, and the redraws give him more than enough cause to do so.
gutter_trash
Banned
as for Conservatives in Quebec, they will regain most of their 2011 losses.
Quebec City leans right and they voted for Jack Layton, but 2015 they will go back to Harper. 2011 was an anomoly
2 well known provincial MNAs from the CAQ (a right leaning party) are rumored to drop provincial politics and jump into Federal to join Harper in 2015
Quebec City leans right and they voted for Jack Layton, but 2015 they will go back to Harper. 2011 was an anomoly
2 well known provincial MNAs from the CAQ (a right leaning party) are rumored to drop provincial politics and jump into Federal to join Harper in 2015
Edmonton will most likely have a lot of color shifts. The makeup of the city has dramatically changed since the last election. I expect Calgary would be the same.
I wouldn't feel confident claiming seats for anyone in Quebec at this point, Conservative or otherwise.
The 2011 election and its aftermath clearly established that the Bloc isn't the single dominant force in Quebec like it was before, and it means a lot of seats will be up for grabs by any party.
The Conservatives haven't really recovered since the election in vote intentions so I don't think Quebec City will be that easy to reclaim, although move vote division could benefit them.
The NDP is bound to lose seats with its relatively lower support overall. Which seats it loses and which it keeps, is likely to come down to individual MPs' perceived performance.
The Libs seem poised to make big gains around here and if the Bloc plays its cards well, it could add a few seats thanks to a higher federalist vote division than ever before.
Overall, I think the upcoming election will turn out to be a lot more heterogenous than any of the past 20 years, with some good news in there for every party. The big loser, despite consistently high support, will be the NDP because with 58 seats and rising Liberal support, it has nowhere to go but down.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
That's basically what I assumed would happen when the NDP first won. Since they can't be the party of Quebec, they're going to bleed there and they won't be able to make up the seats anywhere else.
The "problem" is whether or not the Liberals can pick up enough for it to matter. I think we're going to have the same vote splitting thing that will just give the Conservatives some seats by default.
The "problem" is whether or not the Liberals can pick up enough for it to matter. I think we're going to have the same vote splitting thing that will just give the Conservatives some seats by default.
gutter_trash
Banned
if the election gets played on The Economy card, then it will be a dual between the Conservatives and Liberals.
Justin Trudeau has been opting for the Chretien-Martin Right-of-Center line on the economy and walking away from the Dion-Ignatieff Eco-professorial approach.
The small C votes in suburbia are the ones that will fought over. Justin knows it, Ignatieff didn't .
Harper will dole out some sort of short term gimmick that doesn't do anything for ordinary Joes. Now they are going for this crap about income splitting that only benefits couples with above-average salaries. Income splitting is useless for average couples.
Just like Tax Free Savings account, it's only useful for people who have extra disposable income. People who barely have any extras, TFS is useless.
The NDP's only chance is if there is some major issue other than the economy that gets big traction that ordinary people actually care about..
Senate reform, nobody out here gives a shit about it
Aside from the economy, other people will vote on the Leader they like better. Just like Quebec voting for Jack in 2011. If Justin goes that way, then he will pick votes from people who vote on personality
Justin Trudeau has been opting for the Chretien-Martin Right-of-Center line on the economy and walking away from the Dion-Ignatieff Eco-professorial approach.
The small C votes in suburbia are the ones that will fought over. Justin knows it, Ignatieff didn't .
Harper will dole out some sort of short term gimmick that doesn't do anything for ordinary Joes. Now they are going for this crap about income splitting that only benefits couples with above-average salaries. Income splitting is useless for average couples.
Just like Tax Free Savings account, it's only useful for people who have extra disposable income. People who barely have any extras, TFS is useless.
The NDP's only chance is if there is some major issue other than the economy that gets big traction that ordinary people actually care about..
Senate reform, nobody out here gives a shit about it
Aside from the economy, other people will vote on the Leader they like better. Just like Quebec voting for Jack in 2011. If Justin goes that way, then he will pick votes from people who vote on personality
firehawk12
Subete no aware
I wonder if any Conservatives will remember the "betrayals". Particularly the "flip flop" on income splitting, which was pretty much their thing for years and years. I just feel like there's no memory when it comes to Conservative incompetence.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
Doubt it. They won't do great, but I think they'll do better than last time. Votes will be split between NDP and LPC which might be enough to give them a lead in a few places. The attacks against the conservatives have been much more subdued over the past few years. The economy is becoming more fragile, families have greater debt, that will scare enough people to "keep the status quo", unless a big economic downturn happens before the elections.
Conservatives are a taking a case by case approach. They are responsible for this program, but every time one of those issues come out they benefit from it by attacking whichever company is specifically making the news. So people are dumb enough to think the conservatives are standing against those companies, being the patriots they are, when in reality they are the ones who are backing these ridiculous programs which are made specifically to allow companies to hire super cheap labor.
edit: Bloc are screwed, Duceppe was a good leader and even some Canadians agreed with his stances when he spoke in the debates regarding provincial powers. What's left in the Bloc is the equivalent of the Bloc Pot or other fringe parties, without a voice, without even an identity, nothing that people can recognize other than being a one-issue party. They will be lucky to get 1 seat, just wherever the leader thinks he has 100% chance to win, and I can't think of one.
gutter_trash
Banned
I personally believe that the average voter has a shorter attention span than that Ellen DeGeneres fish from Finding Nemo.
All the stuff being spoke of during the last year or even couple of months are quickly forgotten. People will only pay attention the month before the election
firehawk12
Subete no aware
We just need another Duffy scandal next year.
Harper has had a TON of scandals. It's just that they've all happened when there wasn't even a chance of an election either because of his recent majority or because the Liberals were too busy tearing themselves apart and electing unelectable leaders.
I mean the fake lake? The millions wasted on the jet purchase? Duffy, Wallin, Brazaeu in the Senate? Destroying Statisics Canada? Attacking Elections Canada? It's just never ending but all forgotten. And now it seems like slashing and burning has earned them what Harper wanted all along. A surplus budget to crow about. Ever since Paul Martin Canadians only seem to care that a budget is in surplus and it doesn't matter that everything else is collapsing.
I mean the fake lake? The millions wasted on the jet purchase? Duffy, Wallin, Brazaeu in the Senate? Destroying Statisics Canada? Attacking Elections Canada? It's just never ending but all forgotten. And now it seems like slashing and burning has earned them what Harper wanted all along. A surplus budget to crow about. Ever since Paul Martin Canadians only seem to care that a budget is in surplus and it doesn't matter that everything else is collapsing.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
Are people really surprised that the honeymoon is over? Like it didn't happen a million other times? Wait 'till the election campaign, that's the only poll that matters.
There's a slight problem with that, which may or may not be brought up regarding this foreign worker controversy:
Kenney apparently had a little chat with the CEO of McDonald's Canada, who wasn't exactly in an attacking mood.
If Kenney was attacking McDonald's in the media, people just need to bring up this quote to take all the wind out of his sails.
gutter_trash
Banned
the foreign workers program must have light shed on it because abuse of the program is leaving a sour taste of old pickles.
Government agencies seek telecom user data at ‘jaw-dropping’ rates
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/..._how_often_they_hand_over_customers_data.html
The Conservative government: abhors the long-form census because it asks questions about private issues, really loves finding out about private issues in other, more secretive ways.
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/..._how_often_they_hand_over_customers_data.html
The Conservative government: abhors the long-form census because it asks questions about private issues, really loves finding out about private issues in other, more secretive ways.
Requests for basic subscriber information on a telephone number is basic policework stuff.
It is not "staggering", or "an abomination", or "jaw-dropping." It's basic, barebones stuff.
The idea that a warrant would be required to obtain this information would be akin to requiring police to get a warrant to access MTO/driver's license records, or to get travel history info from CBSA. It's absurd.
I'm not sure if the kind of requests, or even the lack of warrant is the jaw-dropping part. It's the amount.
Plus the fact that there seems to be no way to get information on these requests. Why is everyone stonewalling?
Eh, not sure.
Say you're running a Part VI investigation that includes a DNR warrant, logging every call your bad guy makes, and the terms of the Authorization include the telecoms companies providing subscriber info for every number that gets logged on the DNR. Then say your badguy is pretty active and calls three hundred unique numbers over the 60-day period. Maybe the telecoms company considers each of those numbers a separate "request".
That's three hundred "requests" for one DNR for one target for one unit's investigation. Multiply that by all the investigations by all the law enforcement agencies in the country. And then add whatever voodoo arrangements CSIS and CSE might have with the telecoms companies in their own operations, and you get to a high number of requests very quickly, I think.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
So the Ontario budget just landed... I actually kind of like it. It is a very NDP-esque budget. But still, a lot of things are missing.
- Judicial inquiry into gas plant scandal
- Committee into the Herb Grey Parkway "scandal" if we can call it that yet.
- That $3 billion corporate welfare scheme is one of the dumbest ideas the Liberals have ever thought of, and that's saying a lot. Horwath should force them to nix it and replace it with a) elimination of small business tax or b) subsidizing utilities this year, especially since gas is going up by 40%. Direct subsidies is one of the best forms of economic stimulus, even better than infrastructure investment. Giveaways and handouts to the world's largest profitable corporations is one of the worst, it has a very return on investment.
- Nix that London to Toronto HSR. I have never seen such a disgusting seat saver programme and the Liberals are pretty nasty at that. Either build one from Windsor to Montreal or just shut up and let Deb Matthews lose her damn seat. Worst minister ever.
- Get rid of Darlington refurbishment, complete waste of money. Import clean, renewable hydroelectricity from Quebec.
- No health care "advocate" please. Puke. We have an amazing ombudsman, use him.
- Get rid of the OMB, it is beyond useless. Farmland near my house is turning into suburbia, what happened to Places to Grow Act?? Oak Ridges Moraine is a very sensitive area, building on it will bring in more in the cost of flooding then it will in property or developer taxes.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Huh, I guess I just don't follow provincial politics at all. Toronto to London? Is there a huge demand to commute from those two cities?
You Are Viewtiful
Member
I think Kitchener to Toronto is supposed to be the "main" part of it, after the feds cut VIA rail service and thus total service along that line in half. It's to get from Kitchener to downtown Toronto in 45 minutes. I wouldn't mind HSR (if it goes from Detroit to Ottawa or Montreal) but this is clearly a political grab, Liberals won't win one seat west of Oakville. This is their terrible attempt at holding on.
From the article:
That's approximately 1 in 50 Canadians. It may be more or less (since accounts don't necessarily correlate to people), but probably within the order of magnitude. That is a staggering ratio, and implies at the very least that the bar for these requests is extremely low.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
It really seems to serve one particular niche an no one else.
Sort of like the Scarborough subway in Toronto.
Umm, yes? That's what I meant to imply by "basic policework stuff", and "basic, barebones stuff" in my previous post. It's a bar that we step over, not one we jump over.
The only reason it's London -> Kitchener -> Toronto is that it is a trial run of sorts. After they do that, they do plan to expand to Windsor and Ottawa, and possibly Montreal and Quebec City
It makes far more sense for a high speed train to go to Windsor -> Hamilton -> Toronto though and then onwards to Quebec City eventually.
I mean both lines would be great but Windsor has a far better case for being the main western terminal rather than London. London to Toronto would be the secondary eventual line.
I mean honestly this feels a bit like Jim Flaherty's bizarre trail run of a train to Peterborough way back when.
The On-NDP is in a damn rough spot right now though. Wynne has backed Horwath into a rock and a hard place situation with somewhat decent policies on one side and horrible corruption scandals on the other.
I mean should Horwarth tie herself to the Liberals in exchange for some higher corporate taxes and a saner High speed line and more investment in transit?
What the McGuinty government did at the end of its tenure is reprehensible and really unforgivable but damn policy is what matters at the end and when Libs are froced kicking and screaming to the left is when we get the best policies and budget.
If Ontario could whip together a "not a complete bunch of bastards" party for the next election they might not be completely screwed. Ontario can't handle its debt load so the NDP is useless and the Liberals to the LEFT of them are corrupt and useless. I don't think Hudak can safely brush his teeth without wearing protective goggles.
Raising corporate taxes to give grants to corporations -> Trying to get airborne by pulling on your shoelaces.
Raising corporate taxes to give grants to corporations -> Trying to get airborne by pulling on your shoelaces.
gutter_trash
Banned
Liberals deciding to go with ''open nominations'' for candidates is a huge mistake.
Liberals seriously needs to recruit economist power brains for candidates and it's not with ''open nominations selling member cards'' that will attract them.
2015 will be on the economy and Liberals need to get more Ralph Goodale types on board,
Harper is a major dick asshole about the Champlain Bridge and Montreal area. He called the Champlain Bridge ''a Local Bridge''. Yeah, the bridge that highest usage in the entire country of Canada is refered to as a ''local bridge'' by the Conservative ass hat.
Harper knows he has no votes Montreal and its burbs so he is being a dick about it. Completely contrary on how is towards Quebec City because it has a Conservative base, oh Regis you want this? here you go! Electoralist douche ass hat fuck
Liberals seriously needs to recruit economist power brains for candidates and it's not with ''open nominations selling member cards'' that will attract them.
2015 will be on the economy and Liberals need to get more Ralph Goodale types on board,
Harper is a major dick asshole about the Champlain Bridge and Montreal area. He called the Champlain Bridge ''a Local Bridge''. Yeah, the bridge that highest usage in the entire country of Canada is refered to as a ''local bridge'' by the Conservative ass hat.
Harper knows he has no votes Montreal and its burbs so he is being a dick about it. Completely contrary on how is towards Quebec City because it has a Conservative base, oh Regis you want this? here you go! Electoralist douche ass hat fuck
Ontario election in June.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toron...wath-says-ndp-voting-against-budget-1.2629401
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toron...wath-says-ndp-voting-against-budget-1.2629401
I feel your pain with the damn G20 conference, a billion dollars spent, that got Muskoka free pagodas and Toronto 3 weeks of hell.
Edit: Not surprised by what the NDP did, they're not doing great in the polls but McGunity's never ending blowback is making the Liberals so hard to support.
Le sigh, I really hope Hudak doesn't come in and start ripping up the transit that Toronto is finally getting built in favor of SUBWAYS SUBWAYS SUBWAYS.
gutter_trash
Banned
lol, i was checking the fixed election dates for Ontario... it is the same month and year as the Federal... how retarded is that?
May help the incumbent, no?
gutter_trash
Banned
if it causes less people to care to vote.. yes
You Are Viewtiful
Member
Finally. I don't like Hudak but I'll take anything that isn't Liberal at this point.
equippedwithtowel
Member
With all the recent confusion if I've learnt one thing it's that the people of Toronto clearly want subways.
edit: also Hudak as premier will be a disaster.
edit: also Hudak as premier will be a disaster.
So Wynne has gone ahead and made the Ontario election official and all. It's going to be on June 12th.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toron...rss&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toron...rss&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
You Are Viewtiful
Member
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Welp. Welcome our Tory overlords.
I think most reasonable people are fine with rail transit, once they understand that we don't have the money for the capital expenditures that a subway requires.
Simon Belmont
Banned
http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/ontario.html
I really don't see what's in it for the Dippers. The Liberals aren't far enough to the left so they'll potentially give the keys to Mike Harris Jr.? Talk about throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
I really don't see what's in it for the Dippers. The Liberals aren't far enough to the left so they'll potentially give the keys to Mike Harris Jr.? Talk about throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
gutter_trash
Banned
so she announced a mock budget with no numbers,
threatened to have opposition parties say their opinions,
then never table the budget for a vote,
then call an election
That is exactly the same thing that Pauline Marois did and look what happened to her, lol
Wynne deserves to lose if she copies Marois's election launch playbook on a mock budget that was made on purpose to call an election
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Yeah, I don't see how this works out for the NDP. I suppose they're hoping people hate the Tories as much as the Liberals. Or, alternatively, they hope to have the balance of power again in a minority government.
Simon Belmont
Banned
We're going to go through an election just to prove that Ontarians don't like the Liberals, but don't trust the PCs either
gutter_trash
Banned
2nd provincial minority government in 2014 that concocted Fixed Date Election Laws but then decided to dissolve government in hopes of getting a majority government.............. then failing
The Liberal budget was really really great for NDP priorities (and it's a pretty damn fine budget as far as I'm concerned).
The problem I think for Horwath was that propping up Wynne made her look like she's soft on Liberal corruption and I think the NDP internal polling was incredibly split on whether to prop up the Libs and take the good budget in exchange for being tarnished by Liberal sleaze (and there is a LOT of sleaze) or pull the plug.
I think there's a reason Horwath bolted yesterday and went radio silent. She had to pick her poison.
Edit: gutter it's a different situation. Marois created a crisis, Wynne inherited one and her budget was a straight up love letter to Horwath to try and survive.
Simon Belmont
Banned
They're never going to get in. I don't know why'd they'd squander their chance to actually advance their agenda.
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