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[MayauMiao]

Well, since you've already started...

 

[Hohenheim]

but you do see a difference between being sad that something not good is succeeding and wanting a game to fail right?

I want all games to be incredible, it's kind of the opposite of wanting them to fail.

Absolutely. But a game being "bad" is not always a universal truth. It very seldom is.
Like Smash Bros for example. One of the most boring games I can think about.. but I don't want it to fail just because it's not for me.
Or the "Life is Strange" series. I wouldn't touch it with a stick, but i'm happy its doing well and that people enjoy it.
It's way to many great games out there to be sad about games I don't like doing well. And when single player games without micros and forced launchers and other bullshit does well, that's a good thing in my book. That was basically my point.

 

[BennyBlanco]

Absolutely. But a game being "bad" not always a universal truth. It very seldom is.
Like Smash Bros for example. One of the most boring games I can think about.. but I don't want it to fail just because it's not for me.
Or the "Life is Strange" series. I wouldn't touch it with a stick, but i'm happy its doing well and that people enjoy it.
It's way to many great games out there to be sad about games I don't like doing well. And when single player games without micros and forced launchers and other bullshit does well, that's a good thing in my book. That was basically my point.

Yeah, I agree. Let the free market decide. I have no interest in this game but if people like it then I’m happy for them.

 

[Nasigil]

Is it gonna be a total disaster? Not likely. These are okay numbers. At least it's a finished and functional game in one of the most popular genre (fantasy action RPG) with a big name IP. It's gonna sell to some extend, whether it'd be good enough to considered a commercial success is remained to be seen.

Will it be a smash hit and become a beloved classic? Also no and no, which are fairly obvious at this point. No one will consider 70k on release date a big hit. And the reception has been mixed to minor positive so far. Even if you ignore the shady practice of EA selectively sending out review codes, 84 metacritic and 79% steam review is really not that high of a score anyway.

 

[T4keD0wN]

I can still see it getting up to 300k which is what it’ll need to look good.

Those are some Square Enix expectations. It doesnt need 300k to look good, Dragons Dogma 2 was considered a massive success by the publisher and it did top out at 220k and was at 70k in two weeks time, but that was a massive succes and not just a success. Granted this is likely a much higher budget level game so the threshold should definitely be higher, but its also available outside of steam and likely has a bunch of people playing through subscriptions there (probably nowhere near as much as on steam though, but we dont have any numbers on that)

If it gets 150k+ and stays at a decent number for a few weeks it would probably mean the game does just barely enough for Bioware to not fold down. I dont think Veilguard will get there, but itll probably end up making a large part of its budget back in a month and possibly even turn profit in a year or two, depending on how much will itll slow down.

300k is most definitely not happening on just steam, but it should be possible with consoles included. Whats sad is it probably could have close to BG3 numbers if it was more like DA Origins.

 

[DonkeyPunchJr]

Those are some Square Enix expectations. It doesnt need 300k to look good, Dragons Dogma 2 was considered a massive success by the publisher and it did top out at 220k and was at 70k in two weeks time, but that was a massive succes and not just a success. Granted this is likely a much higher budget level game so the threshold should definitely be higher, but its also available outside of steam and likely has a bunch of people playing through subscriptions there (probably nowhere near as much as on steam though, but we dont have any numbers on that)

If it gets 150k+ and stays at a decent number for a few weeks it would probably mean the game does just barely enough for Bioware to not fold down. I dont think Veilguard will get there, but itll probably end up making a large part of its budget back in a month and possibly even turn profit in a year or two, depending on how much will itll slow down.

300k is most definitely not happening on just steam, but it should be possible with consoles included.

Considering the game has been in development since 2015 and has been rebooted at least twice, I’d say there’s zero chance of this being profitable and I don’t think even EA expected to recoup all the money they spent on it over the last decade.

 

[PeteBull]

The cope in the thread is real. The game may be embarrassing, but 70k day one are totally respectable numbers. It’ll likely break 100k on the weekend. I said it before, don’t be surprised if the game doesn’t end up being the Big Bomba you expected it to be.

Bro, u can think its a succes story but what is important is- if EA's expectactions are met, aka game gotta sell 4,5m copies to break even on 200m usd budget(if it was only 200m usd, who knows maybe it was even more, defo not less).
So realistically speaking, to just break even game needs to sell 2m copies on steam, how much ccu it is- no idea, but defo not 1/3rd of dragons dogma 2 ccus(which has 230k peak),

TLDR- wait for EA announcements game didnt meet expectations, then about lay offs, etc, standard bad game stuff(which so happens its usually woke game too ).

 

[Hawk The Slayer]

Considering the game has been in development since 2015 and has been rebooted at least twice, I’d say there’s zero chance of this being profitable and I don’t think even EA expected to recoup all the money they spent on it over the last decade.

Yep and 150k ccp on is a huge bad look on steam at least. The scale and work is higher than DD2. They should have faith that it’ll hit 300k ccp or more within these 3 days!

 

[Angry_Megalodon]

This is a similar case to SW Outlaws, you have to take into account the massive budget and legacy IP. To sell 1M copies is fine for medium-budget games, but not for this 300M monstrosity.

I foresee something in the range of 0,33 Concords level of flop.

 

[captainnapalm]

I don't think Bioware would have folded even if this had bombed - they still have Mass Effect they're working on and they won't give up on the potential of that being a big seller - but this game has been in development hell for years and years, and likely had several reboots considering how streamlined it is and how many times it's changed creative leads. This game cost a fortune and likely needs to be a massive hit to be successful.

Which is probably why they told reviewers not to mention the woke wackiness and have been doing a few things to appeal to regular gamers™. Don't think it will be enough.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

If EA had stuck with the DAO formula (which was really the Baldur's Gate formula) they'd be looking at BG3 numbers, but they systematically destroyed the franchise and the studio and now they're looking at Granblue Fantasy numbers. American AAA publishers are incapable of nourishing talent.

 

[Hawk The Slayer]

I don't think Bioware would have folded even if this had bombed - they still have Mass Effect they're working on and they won't give up on the potential of that being a big seller - but this game has been in development hell for years and years, and likely had several reboots considering how streamlined it is and how many times it's changed creative leads. This game cost a fortune and likely needs to be a massive hit to be successful.

Which is probably why they told reviewers not to mention the woke wackiness and have been doing a few things to appeal to regular gamers™. Don't think it will be enough.

Yep it definitely cost a lot of budget and nobody could deny that. Right now all we can do is wait for the ccp increase and have faith in it. I predict 150k today, 250k tomorrow and 350k on Sunday for the steam ccp peak and finally dropping back to 300k on Monday.

 

[Plague Doctor]

Yep it definitely cost a lot of budget and nobody could deny that. Right now all we can do is wait for the ccp increase and have faith in it. I predict 150k today, 250k tomorrow and 350k on Sunday for the steam ccp peak and finally dropping back to 300k on Monday.

Those are rookie numbers.

This is beating Wukong.

Call me Freddie Prinze Jr, cause I am going to be bull on my predictions.

Everyone knows All Saint's Day and Día de Muertos is fucking huge for western gamers

 

[Hawk The Slayer]

If EA had stuck with the DAO formula (which was really the Baldur's Gate formula) they'd be looking at BG3 numbers, but they systematically destroyed the franchise and the studio and now they're looking at Granblue Fantasy numbers. American AAA publishers are incapable of nourishing talent.

Happy for Granblue Fantasy Relinks 114k peak ccp from a game with probably around 6x less of what Veilguards budget is. It was my first game from that franchise and also their first big game. Hope to see a sequel!

 

[proandrad]

Then none of Bioware’s stuff is your Jam…they introduced the first LGBT character in the entire Star Wars universe in the original KoToR with Juhani…Dragon Age Inquistion was stuffed with it: Dorian and Iron Bull being an item, Sera, Celene, Brialla…Kreme with the non-binary. This is the equivalent of figuring out Rage Against the Machine is a band that talks about politics….

Some people are just thick. I remember when people that played The Last of Us didn’t know Bill was gay until the HBO Bill episode.

 

[Raven117]

Some of y’all are absolutely effing morons when it comes to business and units sold to recoup costs.

 

[Mayar]

Some of y’all are absolutely effing morons when it comes to business and units sold to recoup costs.

 

[Astray]

The cope in the thread is real. The game may be embarrassing, but 70k day one are totally respectable numbers. It’ll likely break 100k on the weekend. I said it before, don’t be surprised if the game doesn’t end up being the Big Bomba you expected it to be.

I love how the CCU figure kept going up and the thread title kept having to be changed lol.

Some of y’all are absolutely effing morons when it comes to business and units sold to recoup costs.

This game has a far lesser requirement for recoupment than you think it does.

It uses Frostbite, which is an EA engine, so no Unreal or Unity royalties are getting paid. They only really pay storefront royalties.

Also any costs being paid to develop the Frostbite engine can be spread around because the engine is being used in a lot of EA titles including all of their sports titles.

Also EA is almost assuredly at the %20 royalty bracket with Valve.

 

[Kacho]

This game has a far lesser requirement for recoupment than you think it does.

It uses Frostbite, which is an EA engine, so no Unreal or Unity royalties are getting paid. They only really pay storefront royalties.

Also any costs being paid to develop the Frostbite engine can be spread around because the engine is being used in a lot of EA titles including all of their sports titles.

Also EA is almost assuredly at the %20 royalty bracket with Valve.

 

[Zathalus]

I love how the CCU figure kept going up and the thread title kept having to be changed lol.


This game has a far lesser requirement for recoupment than you think it does.

It uses Frostbite, which is an EA engine, so no Unreal or Unity royalties are getting paid. They only really pay storefront royalties.

Also any costs being paid to develop the Frostbite engine can be spread around because the engine is being used in a lot of EA titles including all of their sports titles.

Also EA is almost assuredly at the %20 royalty bracket with Valve.

Not to mention that the biggest part of a games budget is the salaries of all the developers you have to pay.

BioWare is based out of Edmonton, no way does this game have a budget of $200 million.

Alan Wake 2, a game made by a studio of a similar size as BioWare and has roughly the same development time had a budget of €70 million. Helsinki and Edmonton have similar salary ranges for software and game development.

These $200-300 million development cost games are almost exclusively from studios located in cities like Los Angeles and Seattle, and they have some of the largest software development salaries in the world.

 

[Tret Crimshank]

This already seems like a winner for EA if it's outperforming their other comparable releases. I know some people weren't hot on the art direction the series has taken but it may be here to stay.

And are people seriously comparing player counts between a free multiplayer beta and a $60 single-player game? Some of y'all are way too hung up on a game you're never going to play. But keep it up, I'm loving all the Boss Baby analytics in this thread.

 

[DonkeyPunchJr]

Not to mention that the biggest part of a games budget is the salaries of all the developers you have to pay.

BioWare is based out of Edmonton, no way does this game have a budget of $200 million.

Alan Wake 2, a game made by a studio of a similar size as BioWare and has roughly the same development time had a budget of €70 million. Helsinki and Edmonton have similar salary ranges for software and game development.

These $200-300 million development cost games are almost exclusively from studios located in cities like Los Angeles and Seattle, and they have some of the largest software development salaries in the world.

It’s been in development since 2015 and has been rebooted at least twice. (Started as a single player game which was scrapped because EA wanted a MP game. Development restarted as a live service game, then they decided to remove all the MP/live service elements and rework it into a single player game).

$200M+ would not be surprising at all IMO.

 

[Zathalus]

It’s been in development since 2015 and has been rebooted at least twice. (Started as a single player game which was scrapped because EA wanted a MP game. Development restarted as a live service game, then they decided to remove all the MP/live service elements and rework it into a single player game).

$200M+ would not be surprising at all IMO.

And the majority of that pre-production time was likely done by a very small team as the studio was busy assisting with the disaster that was Andromeda and then having everyone work on Anthem until 2021. It’s not as if all 300 employees have been working on Dragon Age since 2015 with nothing to show for it.

 

[Raven117]

I love how the CCU figure kept going up and the thread title kept having to be changed lol.


This game has a far lesser requirement for recoupment than you think it does.

It uses Frostbite, which is an EA engine, so no Unreal or Unity royalties are getting paid. They only really pay storefront royalties.

Also any costs being paid to develop the Frostbite engine can be spread around because the engine is being used in a lot of EA titles including all of their sports titles.

Also EA is almost assuredly at the %20 royalty bracket with Valve.

Dude, it’s a game in development hell for years. 2 resets, that we know of. It’s in the hundreds of millions. All but guaranteed. To even think it’s some how less is smacks of a liberal arts degree.

None of this matters. We will know in a few months.

 

[Wildebeest]

Those are rookie numbers.

This is beating Wukong.

Call me Freddie Prinze Jr, cause I am going to be bull on my predictions.

Everyone knows All Saint's Day and Día de Muertos is fucking huge for western gamers

Next week, the Canadian govt is going to do a China and say that all Canadian employees will be fired if they don't take a day off to play Veilguard. Source is my uncle who works in the Canadian parliament.

 

[CharmingCharlie]

My hunch is… it won’t be a success for BioWare / EA. Mass Effect is there last chance.

Yeahhhhhhhhhhhhhh about that, I don't think Mass Effect is their last chance. I think Dragon Age is their last chance, if this game doesn't perform spectacularly then Bioware is gonna be taken out back and given the Old Yeller treatment.

 

[mayham2199]

Yeahhhhhhhhhhhhhh about that, I don't think Mass Effect is their last chance. I think Dragon Age is their last chance, if this game doesn't perform spectacularly then Bioware is gonna be taken out back and given the Old Yeller treatment.

Maybe. Mass Effect LE did very well and better than EA expected. I could see EA at least wanting to try and capitalize on that. Who knows though EA just might be done with it. They have a love hate relationship with SP games.

Could also see them wanting to try and remaster the original DAO which I think would do very well but would need to be remade from top to bottom IMO.

 

[Astray]

Dude, it’s a game in development hell for years. 2 resets, that we know of. It’s in the hundreds of millions. All but guaranteed. To even think it’s some how less is smacks of a liberal arts degree.

None of this matters. We will know in a few months.

I think by now the game is a known quantity that isn't going to break the charts in half, but it also isn't exactly doing badly either.

It's almost as if the world doesn't revolve around our opinions and we can be wrong about things just as often as we are correct.

 

[Peroroncino]

It's always entertaining when Business Majors with their degrees from the University of Taco Bell come out to throw in their two cents.

 

[Kacho]

Its slowly climbing back to the peak it hit yesterday.

 

[Morrie’s wig shop]

Not to mention that the biggest part of a games budget is the salaries of all the developers you have to pay.

BioWare is based out of Edmonton, no way does this game have a budget of $200 million.

Alan Wake 2, a game made by a studio of a similar size as BioWare and has roughly the same development time had a budget of €70 million. Helsinki and Edmonton have similar salary ranges for software and game development.

These $200-300 million development cost games are almost exclusively from studios located in cities like Los Angeles and Seattle, and they have some of the largest software development salaries in the world.

Just for reference, this is the skyline of Edmonton. (Sorry, any chance I get to post a pic of a skyline. I’m gonna do it. I have a skyline fetish…

 

[Plague Doctor]

All I know is EA is a compassionate, sensible, and charitable company that is the indisputed champion of the common worker. So even if this game just breaks even and makes a little bit of pocket change, they will take care of their people. They understand the world isn't about impossible infinite growth and all about legacy, pedigree, and sustainability.

Their progressive values extend past performative cringe dialogue to the truly meaningful things like how they treat their employees. I stand by this fact.

There are no memes that will contradict my salient and objective read on what is truly the white knight of major publishers.

 

[Raven117]

I think by now the game is a known quantity that isn't going to break the charts in half, but it also isn't exactly doing badly either.

It's almost as if the world doesn't revolve around our opinions and we can be wrong about things just as often as we are correct.

Its not an opinion. There are hard numbers that EA has internally on whether they "break even" or not (and, gasp, actually turn a profit). The gamiing world does revolve around those numbers. Is a mid Dragon Age game enough to hit those numbers? That WILL be a fact.

We can guess whether it will or wont (As we aren't privy to these numbers), but by looking at other trends in the industry, similar development times, similar costs, similar reception, we can make an educated guess.

 

[DeaDPo0L84]

It has less concurrent players than the amount of genders they believe to be real.

 

[Hudo]

 

[RavageX]

Mostly Positive now.

I didn't know anyone cares for concurrent players in a (not time limited trial of a not) single player game, how weird. That's the Xbox stats era for you I guess

Was any Dragon Age outside the very first even notable? I guess Inquisition turned out ok or inoffensive at best? I'd think fans of Origins moved on, the series even seems to have switched genres. I was initially thinking to ask how it compares to Baldur's Gate 3 but I guess it simply doesn't, any more.

I don't understand when or why this became a thing. Shouldn't just be sales focused? Sure you want to know people are playing your game but I figure buying would be more important somehow? What do I know?

 

[genesisblock]

Remember guys, AAA has a different sales expectations. Let's keep it real.

 

[RoboFu]

Some of y’all are absolutely effing morons when it comes to business and units sold to recoup costs.

Yeah! I am a Fun moron!

 

[DonkeyPunchJr]

Lots of people are hung over from their crazy Halloween parties last night. Once they wake up and drink some coffee I’m sure the numbers will go up.

 

[Go_Ly_Dow]

 

[Raven117]

Yeah! I am a Fun moron!

No doubt that you are!

 

[devutos]

Not to mention that the biggest part of a games budget is the salaries of all the developers you have to pay.

BioWare is based out of Edmonton, no way does this game have a budget of $200 million.

Alan Wake 2, a game made by a studio of a similar size as BioWare and has roughly the same development time had a budget of €70 million. Helsinki and Edmonton have similar salary ranges for software and game development.

These $200-300 million development cost games are almost exclusively from studios located in cities like Los Angeles and Seattle, and they have some of the largest software development salaries in the world.

Cyberpunk 2077 cost more than $150m just to develop, and likely about the same for marketing.. and it was made in bloody Poland.. and we had like 20% inflation since then.

$200m for this game is a conservative estimation imo.

 

[Thief1987]

Those are some Square Enix expectations. It doesnt need 300k to look good, Dragons Dogma 2 was considered a massive success by the publisher and it did top out at 220k and was at 70k in two weeks time, but that was a massive succes and not just a success.

It's relative. If capcom may consider 3 million in 2+ months as a big success, I doubt that EA will. And going by the Steam CCU it won't even reach that.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Cyberpunk 2077 cost more than $150m just to develop, and likely about the same for marketing.. and it was made in bloody Poland.. and we had like 20% inflation since then.

$200m for this game is a conservative estimation imo.

Thats nuts.

So if 2077 was made in the US, it could had cost half a billion?

 

[Zathalus]

Cyberpunk 2077 cost more than $150m just to develop, and likely about the same for marketing.. and it was made in bloody Poland.. and we had like 20% inflation since then.

$200m for this game is a conservative estimation imo.

And the CDPR team is several sizes larger then the team working on Dragon Age. It also has several celebrity actors that did mo-cap and that really doesn’t come cheap. The marketing budget was also simply on another level compared to Dragon Age.

Where is this mythical 200 million dollar budget going? BioWare is ~300 employees total with two teams, one working on this and the other on Mass Effect. They are also located in Edmonton where developer salaries are a third of those in Los Angeles. The game also has no third party engine or celebrity actors that they have to pay royalties to.

I’ve already mentioned Alan Wake 2 had a budget of €70 million, Hogwarts Legacy was $150 million, and that was a team of 500 plus they had to pay for the Harry Potter license.

Another recent EA game was Immortals of Aveum. That was well over 100 employees, had to pay Unreal licensing costs, took 5 years to make, and was located in San Rafael, California where developer salaries are over double those in Edmonton. Total budget was $85 million excluding marketing from EA.

 

[RiccochetJ]

Just for reference, this is the skyline of Edmonton. (Sorry, any chance I get to post a pic of a skyline. I’m gonna do it. I have a skyline fetish…

That's Calgary. That tower slightly to the left with the red at the top is the Calgary tower. You can't see mountains like that in Edmonton. You have to drive out of the city and west for a bit.

For those in the US, think of Calgary as being like Denver but at about 1/4 the population and having about 7-8 months of Winter.

On topic, I think those numbers are fine especially after the past 2 disasters of Anthem and Mass Effect. I'm looking forward to playing it eventually.

 

[CloudShiner]

 

[YuLY]

It is barely rising anymore and will plateau soon, this might not even reach 80k today, by this time Space Marine 2 had over 200k players.

Imagine being a clown and saying this is doing well, for a game that was in dev for 5 years and had a total reboot before that. Imagine being this delusional or desperate to prove the chuds wrong.

 

[SnakeB]

Andromeda cost what? 55 million? I would say Veilguard probably cost the double of that, so it is selling well enough

No Denuvo and the game is on EA Play too

 

[Zathalus]

Andromeda cost what? 55 million? I would say Veilguard probably cost the double of that, so it is selling well enough

No Denuvo and the game is on EA Play too

Andromeda was $70 million total, development plus marketing. No way Dragon Age was three times that. Some people think $300 million which is laughable. No chance in hell EA is spending that amount of money on Dragon Age.