It is often assumed that Heartstone is a very RNG heavy game with a limited skill cap. CasinoStone or Professional Coin Flippers are phrases that often are used in conjunction with Hearthstone. Phrases such as I was unlucky or I lost to a top deck are being used even more frequently. Most people would probably agree that there are a lot of random aspects in Hearthstone, since its a turn-based game with many RNG effects, but the focus in this article will actually be the opposite. I will argue that Hearthstone is way more consistent than its being granted for and the better player will win way more games against the less experienced in the long run.
To start this discussion I would like to expand our context to other eSports, which is highly recognized as skill based (these stats are without draws): Evil Genius DotA 2 team who won the international this summer has a win rate of 63% (365W/175L). Team Solomid CS:GOs team has a win rate of 70% (158W/63L). Team Fnatics LoL team has a win rate of 68% (179W/86L). These teams are some of the best in their eSport so a win rate around 67% is seen as high skilled and consistent in their games. Thijs ThijsNL Molendijk who plays Hearthstone for G2 has a win rate of 64% (234W/133L) in competitive games which is very impressive compared to the sample size. So what does all these stats from the different eSports tell us about Thijs when we try to compare them? Is Thijs simply outstanding when it comes to his top decks? Did Thijs face a lot of weak opponents? Or could it actually be that all the hours of training has made Thijs a better Hearthstone player compared to the average player?
To figure this out we need to determine what it means to be a good Hearthstone player. In my opinion it is almost impossible to find the correct play every turn in Hearthstone, because you are not able to know your opponents cards in hand or what his next top deck might be. Nevertheless, you are able to make the optimal play from the information you have and keep getting from your opponent and the game like being aware of how long time a specific card has been in your opponents hand, counting what cards have been played, think not only one turn ahead but always look at the whole game and the upcoming turns, how does the board potentially interact with his cards or your cards in hand, how far or ahead are you - do you have to make a risky play or can you play it safe? Which RNG effects are coming up and how do you exploit them to your advantage etc. For me a good Hearthstone player is a player who takes all these perspectives into consideration and always seeks to find the right play, which ensures a better overall win rate.
Let me try to put this into perspective:
In this example we look at Secretdin vs. Secretdin (
http://imgur.com/1ax5BLe). The player on the top (Player 1) is at this stage ahead and he is now looking for the optimal play to ensure a better overall win rate. He knows that his opponent (Player 2) plays one Ironbeak Owl and one Consecreation in his decks. Moreover, Player 1 has been keeping track of Players 2s cards so he also knows that Player 2 still has one card left in hand from his mulligan. The experienced player will know that Player 2 might keep a Consecration in his opening hand; however, he would probably not keep an Ironbeak Owl in a mirror matchup. Nonetheless, Player 2 might have drawn into the Ironbeak Owl from the three other cards. Therefore, Player 1 needs to consider the following:
To play Knife Juggler and Shielded Minibot. Clear the rest of the Silverhand Recruits who didnt die to the Juggler knifes. This play will increase your win rate IF your opponent doesnt have a Consecreation this play is classified as High risk high reward play.
To play Knife Juggler or Shielded Minibot and Hero power. Clear the rest of the Silverhand Recruits who didnt die to the Juggler knifes. This play is safer against a Consecreation.
To play only Hero Power. Clear the rest of the Silverhand Recruits who didnt die to the Juggler knifes. This play is very conservative and only plays around Consecreation.
To play Blessing of Kings on Knife Juggler. Go face with your Knife Juggler and trade with Silverhand Recruits and weapon.
These four plays will influence Player 1s win rate differently depending on what Player 2 plays next turn. Player 1 therefore needs to consider how far he is ahead at this stage of the game and how safe or risky does he need to play to win this game? In this regard, the rule of thumb is you should always play safe if you think you are ahead whereas you need to play more risky if you believe you are behind. Player 1 decides to go with play number four, To play Blessing of Kings on Knife Juggler. Go face with your Knife Juggler and trade with Silverhand Recruits and weapon. Player 2 top decks an Ironbeak Owl which means he is able to play Knife Juggler and afterwards silence Player 1s Knife Juggler. One of the knifes hits Player 1s Knife Juggler which means that Player 2 is able to clear it with his weapon. Player 2 was able to create a huge swing with his top deck and put himself ahead in the game. So does this mean Player 1 made a miss play? In my opinion: No! He made the decision to increase his win rate on the facts he was given. You can compare and translate it into for example poker. Lets say Player 2 has 77 in his hand and he decides to go All in preflop. Player 1 looks into his cards where he finds KK and without hesitation he decides to call the all in. At this stage of the game Player 1 has 80% chance of winning the pot, nevertheless, a 7 hits the turn (Never lucky, Babyrage) which means that Player 2 ends up winning the pot even though he only had a 20% chance of winning preflop. However, the call from Player 1 was still the correct play percentage wise, which means that if he keeps making similar decisions where he is ahead percentage wise he will end up winning more hands/games in the long term. The same goes for Hearthstone as we saw in the example with the Secretdin vs. Secretdin.
All the different options Player 1 had could potentially influence the following turns a lot differently and this was just a simple turn four. My point is the more experienced Hearthstone player will more frequently make the optimal play each turn compared to a less experienced player so in the long term the experienced and better player will be able to grind him down. Another aspect I would like to highlight in this regard is if a player decides to play aggressive, defensive or risky - some people are recommending he should stick to same game style for the rest of the current game. I highly disagree with this because as a skilled player you constantly need to adjust your play style to the given stage and situation in the game.
So far we can conclude that there are many factors and decisions, which can be made each turn and each of these will influence your upcoming turns and win rate differently like a tree diagram (
http://imgur.com/hirio11). So imagine if you have to plan for a whole tournament then we can expand the three diagram to deck building, which classes shall I bring, which deck do I have to ban of my opponent, which deck is the best to start with etc.. These are factors which is not highlighted enough in my opinion as we often look at a single game isolated, however, the reason of top decking the right card or having the perfect hand is often for example a result of good deck building. In regard to deck building and play style Adrian Lifecoach is known for playing decks like Midrange Paladin, Midrange Hunter, Midrange Druid or other Midrange/Controle decks. His reason for playing these kind of decks is to ensure that the game has more turns and this way Lifecoach can enhance his chances of winning by playing more optimal turns than his opponent. Furthermore, one of Lifecoachs signatures is to rope even on simple turns however, this is basically because time is a limited resource. So he always plan several turns ahead and he tries to predict what his opponent might play in the upcoming turns.
On the other hand, less experienced players have a tendency to play more tech heavy cards like Black Knight, Mind Controle Tech, Harrison etc. Tech cards have the ability to create tempo swings in your game, so of course you need some of them in your deck, however, it is important to have in mind that these cards often are inconsistent. To put this into perspective the experienced player focuses on creating solid decks and make plays that increases his win rate a little each turn in every game. On the other hand the less experienced often tend to make less optimal plays each turn and needs a triumph card to get back in the game. However, the tech card is not very flexible so in other games where he is not able to gain the full potential of it his win rate will decrease instead and he even risks losing to players who are less experienced than himself more often.
To sum it all up I know that Hearthstone is influenced by RNG and that it is not all skill based. Nevertheless, I still believe that there is more to it due to things like deck building, mind games, keeping your head straight in game and make optimal plays every turn. In this regard, this article is not meant as cry for help to stop Twitch chat jokes about RNG because Twitch chat is actually playing a large part when it comes to the success of an Esport like Heartstone. The chat is making the whole experience so much fun! My reason for this article is instead to create a little and first eye-opener towards competitive ladder players, tournament players and also casters of Hearthstone. Hearthstone players often highlight RNG as the reason for their lost games and in my opinion this is the easy way of handling a lost match. It takes courage to highlight your own mistakes and questionable plays especially if you are on a live stage talking about the game. For me personally I have made my share of miss plays in live tournaments and every time I am not afraid of saying so afterwards because I do not learn anything from the RNG, but I learn a lot from my mistakes (
http://imgur.com/rel7Ib5). I only have three to four decks, which I feel totally comfortable playing, and where I know my plays in 95-99% will be the optimal play. This is due to my tournament focus where you can often only bring three decks. Unfortunately, this is also a disadvantage for me because my opponents often know what I will bring to a tournament which my teammate OstKaka showed in the finale qualifier for Blizzcon this year.
My point for this article is actually pretty simple: I think we the players and the casters need to act like ambassadors of the game by not keep talking about the RNG but instead focusing more on the tough calls or how a specific play influenced the game. Personally, I dont get frustrated if I lose a game where I played well I get frustrated when I win/lose a game which I didnt deserve due to miss plays. There will always be a variance in Hearthstone, however, instead of focusing on things we cannot controle let us focus on all the other awesome aspects of the game.
Thanks a lot to those of you who took the time to read the article and Happy Feast of Winterfell to all of you.
Hoej / Follw me on twitter @NaviHoej