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Hearthstone |OT8| Elise's Extremely Irresponsible Field Trip To Un'Goro
- Thread starter ZealousD
- Start date
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https://www.reddit.com/r/hearthston...hstone_packs_hypothesis_predetermined_rarity/
reynad was right, blizzard has someone there just manipulating people's rng, everything is rigged! your destiny is predetermined.
reynad was right, blizzard has someone there just manipulating people's rng, everything is rigged! your destiny is predetermined.
That would explain it. One was probably a start of game card and the other was from discover.
Are people that surprised to find out that a random generator will give similar outputs (card rarities) with similar inputs?
I guess seeing that data from the China rollback just confirmed a bunch of stuff I suspected about how the hearthstone card pack RNG works. As in it is assigning rarities separately from the cards themselves. Which lends a lot of creedence to the "pity timer" theories. As the game then can force you to pull a legendary.
I guess seeing that data from the China rollback just confirmed a bunch of stuff I suspected about how the hearthstone card pack RNG works. As in it is assigning rarities separately from the cards themselves. Which lends a lot of creedence to the "pity timer" theories. As the game then can force you to pull a legendary.
Pity timer is not a theory, it has been confirmed. This is different, if true.
It doesn't seem different to me. It's the method by which the pity timers work. Your RNG seeded by whatever (probably account number or something static), then the game determines what rarities you get. Since that is being determined separately from the card name, it can force you to get a legendary/epic/whatever when your counter reaches whatever.
I don't actually have any inside info about how it works, but this shouldn't be as complicated as you think it is.
it is just a matter of higher percentage of RNG for every pack opened, so a pity timer is nothing guaranteed, but more of a very very high percentage of getting one. I don't really think they care at all about defining exactly what rarities you get in each pack, it is kind of worthless..
but in any case, china is forcing all these companies to let public the info about the odds of their RNG loots, so we should find out how they really are.
Since players received the same rarities in the same order after the server reset, they probably have a drop RNG seed that is unique to the player. That's not complex; it's just a normal way to do RNG.
CelticKnight
Member
Are the EU servers playing up for anyone else? Been disconnected from a couple of games and now it just hangs on the loading screen when I boot up the game.
Ah, that answers my question lol.
Ah, that answers my question lol.
We don't have enough information to say definitively, but most likely it's not insidious.
Blizzard likely generates a number string when the card pack is generated, this sets what the rarities of the cards within the pack. When the pack is opened, the cards are randomly generated based on the rarities randomly assigned on generation.
that's... rather fishy, but depending on the kind of RNG they use, they could be using pseudo random number to calculate the openings (those sets always generate the same outcome)
how they are finding out they are receiving the exact same rarities?
charlequin
Banned
this is how all random number generation in all software works tho
The distinction doesn't actually make a difference. It's a sequential calculation that isn't dependent on anything but its own sequence, so the result is exactly the same whether they calculate each one at open time or in advance. There's probably a random seed for each player and then a set of functions that determine the rarities in each pack based on underlying probabilities and the results of the last N packs opened. Actually thinking about it, they probably push info on each pack onto the end of the previous seed and use that info to know when to pull the pity switch.
It was based on reports after the China rollback. I don't know if there's enough data to say for sure yet.
It probably isn't calculated in advance rather it is calculated in a way that is going to give the same (STILL RANDOM) results each time.
So the string is like your account ID or some other data that is specific to your account, and then when you start with that + however many packs deep into the timer you are: you end up with the rarity distribution. Then it randomly assigns card names based on the rarities you got. That's my perception of what is going on anyhow. Maybe there is less or more going on there, but this makes sense to me from my knowlege of the info and general computer science stuff.
Exactly. This is how pseudo-random number generation works.
It could be something as simple as:
1. Generate next "random" rarity combination for player (e.g. "epic, common, common, common, epic") based on seeded pseudo RNG. This order is "fixed" if you rewind time like the Chinese case.
2. If player has gone 40 packs without a legendary, and this result doesn't have a legendary, arbitrarily replace one of the cards.
charlequin
Banned
Right. You could use a global seed and then just hard-override to implement a pity timer, but this method lets you have a random selection process that still shifts probabilities on each pack based on what the player has previously opened. And then since you're only concerned about rarity distribution rather than individual cards, you might as well just pick the actual contents with a global seed at the moment of opening.
Here's the info I didn't see that I'm interested in: is this rarity sequence global across sets, or is there an independent timer for each set? In the former case, it becomes possible to manipulate the RNG to some degree by choosing your opening order.
What I mean is that is it right to assume that at this moment the game has already decided that 20 TGT packs from now I will get a Legendary?
So it seems like rarities are seeded in advance but the actual card (if it's Justicar vs Gormok) is decided on the spot with the pack opening.
I am just trying to understand all of this. Does this apply to normal card RNG too? Like before a game has started, has the game decided in advance that my Kabal Courier will pull out 3 specific cards?
I am not saying any of this is insidious or whatever just trying to understand what's going on exactly. I always assumed card openings worked like loot in ARPGs where as soon as you loot an item it goes throw a number generator top down until it arrives at the item.... it's not like the game decides in advance that "the Xth enemy you will will definitely drop a Legendary item".
So it seems like rarities are seeded in advance but the actual card (if it's Justicar vs Gormok) is decided on the spot with the pack opening.
I am just trying to understand all of this. Does this apply to normal card RNG too? Like before a game has started, has the game decided in advance that my Kabal Courier will pull out 3 specific cards?
I am not saying any of this is insidious or whatever just trying to understand what's going on exactly. I always assumed card openings worked like loot in ARPGs where as soon as you loot an item it goes throw a number generator top down until it arrives at the item.... it's not like the game decides in advance that "the Xth enemy you will will definitely drop a Legendary item".
as I understand it from my studies in mathematics on my career and also how the evidence points (I just saw it) there seems to be applying only to the rarities and not to the actual card itself or the golden value of it, that means, if the 20th TGT has 1 legendary that pack will always feature 1 legendary, but it isn't actually determined which one or if it is golden or no until it is opened. It doesn't seem to determine the position in the pack either (which is weird by itself considering they kind of have it set)
that means that if it only applies to rarites, it doesn't apply to the card itself, which woukld make the rest of the game completely random, not pseudo.
also, the psudo numbers have a formula, so that means they only need to store about 2 numbers and calculating with that, they can know exactly what rarity you will open until infinity ends.
it would be interesting to see if these psedo rng applies to the arena rarities too.
About the bolded, that depends on the game. The number generator has to use something to generate numbers. For a typical computer or console game, it's going to be a fixed sequence of numbers. Which sequence gets used might depend on the system clock when you start the game or something like that.
However, if they use the number generator for other things, not just loot, it could affect the outcome. If you did NOTHING but loot items, maybe your 10th item is going to be a legendary. But if you loot 5 items and a random enemy spawns, the number generator gets triggered and your item generation might happen differently.
This is why in Pokemon people can abuse the PRNG (Pseudo Random Number Generator) to get themselves shiny Pokemon or perfect stats or whatever they want.
Familienoberhauptvogel
Banned
most often the seed is the current time. I remember exploiting that in Shadows of Mordor to get multiples of unique items.
And this is why in Hearthstone it has to be something on the server. Otherwise people would screw with it and guarantee themselves good cards.
charlequin
Banned
Yes, although "already decided" is a bit misleading. The thing about digital RNG is that it's actually incredibly difficult to create true random numbers, i.e. ones that aren't determined in advance in any way, so this is only done for purposes like encryption where it's absolutely necessary.
For most purposes, instead computers generate "pseudo-random" numbers -- they use a function that starts with a number called a "seed" and then spits out consecutive numbers that seem random to an outside observer, but which are always 100% the same if you use the same seed. (If you look at any roguelike game where you can save a "seed" and then get the same random map a second time, that's what it's talking about.)
For most random processes in most apps, they use one seed per app or per function or something, but if you want to generate random numbers that are in some way specific to a user, you'll want a different seed for each person. That's probably what's happening here -- there's a distinct "pre-determined" (i.e. differently seeded) order for every user that determines what rarities will be in their packs.
This probably uses a global seed (i.e. one that isn't specific to you) so probably not.
I believe this has been talked about before with regards to the pity timer. I recall the data suggesting that the timer is independant for each set. So you'd need (maximum) 40 packs in each set to hit the guaranteed legendary for that set. And opening MSoG packs doesn't influence Classic and so on.
Which makes sense when you think about it, because -- as you suggested -- people would manipulate that to get high likelihood of legendaries in older sets while buying mostly newer sets where they didn't have all the cards. This would prevent that.
But I don't recall if the data was definitive on that point so maybe not...
charlequin
Banned
That should still be like a 54% winrate overall....
That'd definitely be the right way to do it to avoid manipulation, certainly.
Tempo fire in this brawl is gg ez as well. Why yes, I would like a fireball. Thank you.
SonicXtreme
Member
gonna finally craft forbidden flame since i've got a tourney on saturday, what should i drop for it? water elemental i'm guessing, maybe even sylvanas? put that in cause it's good against all the weapon classes all around. i don't like the dirty rat package in mage personally so no mct shenanigans. some of this is remnants from when i used mediv in the deck but idk gotta get decks ready for the tourney before saturday and ive only been playing wonky zoobot and anyfin stuff in standard lately
Ive gotten three beardos. Only legendary I opened from those packs. :|ugh, can we roll back NA? I don't want beardo
Fixed1979
Member
If it's between water ele and Sylv than Sylv is the one to go.
Speaking of pity timers, been trying to reset mine before TGT packs are gone, so I bought 5 packs. On my 4th pack I got this:
Confessor Paletress is an awesome card. Has a lot of meme potential for certain, and with Raza around all the inspire cards are actually awesome. Activating Paletress two or more times in 1 turn is basically a win condition.
slightconfuse
Banned
Bans make things better. Shame you can't ban on ladder
Lone_Prodigy
Member
It's one of those cards where if your opponent has it, they'll get Soggoth, and if you have it, you'll get Nat Pagle.
DyslexicAlucard
Member
Still looking for someone!
DyslexicAlucard
Member
I love any golden card that spawns more golden cards. It's why I love my golden A Light in the Darkness.
I also just recently got a second golden Azure Drake. Now if it does get nerfed (which I don't think it should,) I'll be rolling in the dust.
Karsticles
Member
I've long thought this is the case in card games. In Hearthstone, I've gotten Gruul as a legendary FIVE times, and in fact he is one of four classic legendaries I have opened in packs. What is the probability of this happening?
In Duelyst, I pre-ordered the Shim'zar expansion and got 4 of the same legendary. Then I logged out, got 50 more packs with gold, and opened 3 of another legendary. I suspect Duelyst sets your "pack seed" when you log in.
Dr.Horrible
Member
Ah, you must be on my friend list because I think I saw someone open that earlier. Shortly thereafter I opened a golden Knuckles. I already had him crafted so it's a free legendary. I do keep all my golds though, so I'm a little sad about it.
charlequin
Banned
are you sure you don't just live in the matrix
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