Jeff Grubb postulates on Xbox's next gen plans. Steam, Epic...Playstation!?

But they will attempt to market it like a console for this reason, and this reason alone:



It's exactly how I expect things to go to be honest and I feel like this is the primary driver for them going in this direction instead of just unceremoniously killing Xbox hardware:



They want to get their store, and more specifically gamepass, everywhere so that Sony and Nintendo will also be directly impacted by the sale cannibalisation they've experienced.
This does seem like the only reasonable explanation.
 
So what is the future of Xbox? A misadventure in PC gaming hardware followed by becoming a true 3rd party like Sega, but perhaps with a subscription model mirroring that of EA and Ubisoft.

This is their future but I don't think it's as far-fetched as it sounds.

They need to a) continue converting their Xbox GP subs into PC GP subs and b) while doing that, try to please the last holdouts of the Xbox faithful who have built up a digital library / attachment to the brand. It's basically a transitional period to, as you say, offering hybrid hardware at a premium for those who still really want it.

Hardware manufacturing costs have been an albatross around Microsoft's neck for a while. According to Phil they lose about $100 on every Series X sold and $200 on every Series S, and I don't believe they were ever able to get this amount lowered. Selling premium PC hardware at break even / for profit in order to eliminate that existing cost burden would probably make earning less elsewhere in the business easier to stomach (so long as their Game Pass subs don't collapse in the process).

Speaking of Live, they already converted their Gold subscribers into Game Pass Core a while ago, so on their numbers sheets I don't think they make a distinction any more between people paying for online versus not - it's all Game Pass numbers now and as long as they maintain that or see growth, shareholders will stay happy.

Microsoft's position is already that of a true third party. All their games are coming to PS5, PC and Switch 2. Forza is already there. Gears in August. Halo is on Unreal Engine to make multiplatform development easier. It's done - "no red lines".

They are also effectively printing money now by owning Call of Duty. I think the old paradigm of Xbox versus PlayStation is as good as dead and I would not be surprised to see a limited version of Game Pass worm its way onto PlayStation like Ubisoft+ or EA Play - because MS are now just any other third party like them, who happens to sell some PC boxes.
 
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I've already owned a PC for 30 years. What's their deal with this?
They want to launch a PC in a console shell with a big picture mode and Xbox legacy emulators and access to all third party stores.

Reasons, Grubb is speculating that they might be doing all this as a longterm move to show court market regulators that the closed gardens needs to open up. Similar to Epic vs Apple. Then they can get Microsoft Store everywhere and sell COD without a 30% cut.
lmao
 
They want to launch a PC in a console shell with a big picture mode and Xbox legacy emulators and access to all third party stores.
sold-ray.gif
 
This is like devs appealing to the "Modern Audience."
Nahh, trying to make a PC not feel so PC like for people who work all day long on PCs and don't want to come home and then game on said PC

At a console price? Not happening.

More powerful and capable than a console? I think that ship has sailed.

So either priced like a niche device or a Apple TV like box.
Both scenarios equal Xbox leaving the home console race.
Oh I have said all along it would not be console priced if they do it

It wont be cheap


They want to launch a PC in a console shell with a big picture mode and Xbox legacy emulators and access to all third party stores.
Kevin Hart GIF by Complex
 
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their stocks will fall, a certain someone will guarantee it.
Wherever you comment, friends, express the greatest pessimism and skepticism possible because bad things are coming with such ideia.
 
thats even worse.
Maybe to you but I know several who would move from Xbox consoles that work on a PC every single day of their lives to a machine like this simply because they do not want to also game on a PC

Many people here have echoed this as well when this topic has been talked about before

There is a market out there just who knows how big it is

None of us that's for sure
 


Some of this has been discussed in a previous thread unrelated to Jeff Grubb. However, Grubb adds that Xbox plans may have some pretty insane implications.
Some highlights:
- Xbox COULD make online free if you are playing your Xbox games through Steam (huge revenue loss, seems like a stretch to me)
- Xbox would try to make up for lost revenue by hosting other stores (Epic, Steam...even Playstation and IOS could if they wanted to)
- Xbox has allowed vendors to set up their own payment process 2 years ago which could make this a win-win for all involved
- The move to open up it's ecosystem could be argued in court to essentially coerce other platforms via regulation to open up their platforms (If this happens I will eat...something inedible)

All this sounds really far-fetched to me, but if they are even trying this...get ready for another mega-thread the likes on the ABK acquisition. Should be good fun, I really enjoyed that thread. So, what are your thoughts? Please watch the video first. It's like 11 minutes.


lsHjb6q.png

Post in thread 'Capcom Fact Book 2024 (FY3/24 data), Software Shipments: PS4/5: 3.08M units, Switch: 1.21M units, Xbox: 0.21M units' https://www.neogaf.com/threads/capc...units-xbox-0-21m-units.1677455/post-269811486
 
The move to open up it's ecosystem could be argued in court to essentially coerce other platforms via regulation to open up their platforms

Microsoft changing how they operate because they suck ass at operating the Xbox business should in no way force everyone else to change with them. That would be fucking retarded.
 
It all rests on them being able to make their storefront actually good to use, because right now it's very barebones. It's a pain for discoverability beyond showing the most recent things added or coming soon for Game Pass, updates will often enough break or I gotta redo the extensions for EA and Ubisoft games, the social features suck, mod support can be a pain and their sales suck UI-wise to show all or let me sort to find the things I'd want to even buy.

Even the library sorting just kinda sucks so I use UWP Hook to add shortcuts to Steam because that's better. Then they gotta figure out how to de-bloat Windows and get a suspend state/sleep function working properly. Nothing indicates they're moving to improve things at the pace I see SteamOS and other Linux distros getting better every few months.
 
I'm not sure about this; they are printing as much money as they are spending to make CoD happen every year.

Do you have numbers to show this?

Call of Duty costs a lot to make now, something like $700 million per game, but it's consistently the best selling game year on year and they make billions on it. It only took ten days for Modern Warfare II to pass $1 billion in revenue and they typically sell 30-40 million copies according to court documents.
 
This is their future but I don't think it's as far-fetched as it sounds.

They need to a) continue converting their Xbox GP subs into PC GP subs and b) while doing that, try to please the last holdouts of the Xbox faithful who have built up a digital library / attachment to the brand. It's basically a transitional period to, as you say, offering hybrid hardware at a premium for those who still really want it.

I think this is a much larger challenge than you might think. Look at the Steam Deck as an example. It's the premier PC handheld and its barely sold 3 million units. The Vita was a complete failure and even it sold over 15 million units.

The Xbox Series has sold ~30 million units. Presumably half of that on XSX... Their ceiling on a premium priced hybrid hardware is probably 5-10 million units and that's probably being generous.

Hardware manufacturing costs have been an albatross around Microsoft's neck for a while. According to Phil they lose about $100 on every Series X sold and $200 on every Series S, and I don't believe they were ever able to get this amount lowered. Selling premium PC hardware at break even / for profit in order to eliminate that existing cost burden would probably make earning less elsewhere in the business easier to stomach (so long as their Game Pass subs don't collapse in the process).

It can't be for break even pricing. If you cant rely on software sales royalties, you have to rely on selling the hardware at a premium. Look up Alienware pricing and there is way more competition among PC hardware manufacturers.

Speaking of Live, they already converted their Gold subscribers into Game Pass Core a while ago, so on their numbers sheets I don't think they make a distinction any more between people paying for online versus not - it's all Game Pass numbers now and as long as they maintain that or see growth, shareholders will stay happy.

I think you missed my point here. I'm saying these people who pay for GamePass Core just to play online, will not pay for it on a PC when ever other option is free. As soon as Xbox Series stops getting game support, GamePass subscription rates will crumble. Hell once Xbox One stops getting games like CoD and EA FC, you're looking at decreased subscriber rates.

Microsoft's position is already that of a true third party. All their games are coming to PS5, PC and Switch 2. Forza is already there. Gears in August. Halo is on Unreal Engine to make multiplatform development easier. It's done - "no red lines".

They won't be a true 3rd party until there is no longer hardware.

They are also effectively printing money now by owning Call of Duty. I think the old paradigm of Xbox versus PlayStation is as good as dead and I would not be surprised to see a limited version of Game Pass worm its way onto PlayStation like Ubisoft+ or EA Play - because MS are now just any other third party like them, who happens to sell some PC boxes.

They aren't printing money. They spent 70 billion to get CoD. If ABK diminishes in value because CoD diminishes in value, all the previous CoD sales under Microsoft won't mean anything. That's why I think they made a bundle deal with PlayStation, to keep the franchise as relevant as possible especially in the face of a new Battlefield that poses significant risk to Microsoft/ABK. The game will almost certainly have a deep marketing campaign with Sony.

It'll take a lot for Sony to allow Microsoft's GamePass onto PlayStation. Not just that they would never allow 3rd party publishing, but Sony isn't going to want to incentivize Microsoft to keep buying publishers. You'll note Ubisoft Plus Premium and EA Play Pro are not available on PS5. Only catalog titles can be added to subscription models.
 
- Xbox would try to make up for lost revenue by hosting other stores (Epic, Steam...even Playstation and IOS could if they wanted to)
I don't think that's how it works. Why would Epic/Steam/PlayStation pay to have their stores on a shitty Xbox PC? They wouldn't be getting 30% either.
 
Maybe to you but I know several who would move from Xbox consoles that work on a PC every single day of their lives to a machine like this simply because they do not want to also game on a PC

Many people here have echoed this as well when this topic has been talked about before

There is a market out there just who knows how big it is

None of us that's for sure
Not many.
Will be a super nice amount.
 
Is there a large market for this (More than 20 million)?

There could be a large market for "A one-stop console that can play all Xbox, PC, and Playstation games".


All depends on what the specs are, how they market it, if they are able to price it aggressively, and if they can actually make it as convenient as a console.
 
This whole thing.... Best case we get a sort of reference box for a stationary integrated gaming pc and those get some traction then start shipping with steamos.

If they really try to put any effort into a gaming mode for windows and they decide to market it against steamos, I am somewhat looking forward to the fireworks and enduing ass-stuffing ms will get as they galvanize pc players with their gaslighting social bullshit.
 


Some of this has been discussed in a previous thread unrelated to Jeff Grubb. However, Grubb adds that Xbox plans may have some pretty insane implications.
Some highlights:
- Xbox COULD make online free if you are playing your Xbox games through Steam (huge revenue loss, seems like a stretch to me)
- Xbox would try to make up for lost revenue by hosting other stores (Epic, Steam...even Playstation and IOS could if they wanted to)
- Xbox has allowed vendors to set up their own payment process 2 years ago which could make this a win-win for all involved
- The move to open up it's ecosystem could be argued in court to essentially coerce other platforms via regulation to open up their platforms (If this happens I will eat...something inedible)

All this sounds really far-fetched to me, but if they are even trying this...get ready for another mega-thread the likes on the ABK acquisition. Should be good fun, I really enjoyed that thread. So, what are your thoughts? Please watch the video first. It's like 11 minutes.

Haven't watched the video but how exactly would this work?:

"Xbox would try to make up for lost revenue by hosting other stores (Epic, Steam...even Playstation and IOS could if they wanted to)"

I'm no rocket scientist but that to me seems like even more revenue loss.
 
So what is the future of Xbox? A misadventure in PC gaming hardware followed by becoming a true 3rd party like Sega, but perhaps with a subscription model mirroring that of EA and Ubisoft.
If they can even hang on for that long. Sega's been on the brink a few times and they never had the overhead Xbox already has and will wind up with when they're finally done taking a hacksaw to their own ecosystem. Legitimately can see them shutting down or selling almost everything that isn't Minecraft and Candy Crush when all is said and done.

They are also effectively printing money now by owning Call of Duty.
No, they aren't. They effectively burned themselves by slapping COD on Gamepass, enough that they're going to charge 80 dollars going forward. COD is huge in terms of player engagement, but not perceived high enough in quality for it to be coming from the same place as the Mario Kart price bump. It's not happening because they're comfortable and confident that they can sell for 80 bucks and still sell 30 million copies; it's because they have to make up lost cash. And it still won't be enough.
 
There could be a large market for "A one-stop console that can play all Xbox, PC, and Playstation games".


All depends on what the specs are, how they market it, if they are able to price it aggressively, and if they can actually make it as convenient as a console.

If this is the case, how come Valve hasn't made a new Steam Machine to do this exact same thing yet?
 
Is there a large market for this (More than 20 million)?
PC handhelds have been said to have sold 6 million since the launch of the Steamdeck (4 million), Google AI just spat out the number of gaming laptops to be 17 million. (I don't know what time span google used)
Thats over 20 million right there.
 
I don't think that's how it works. Why would Epic/Steam/PlayStation pay to have their stores on a shitty Xbox PC? They wouldn't be getting 30% either.

If the app resides on the windows store then Microsoft can take a ~12% cut from all transactions that take place through that app.

So for example if valve were to put a steam app on there (and Sony a "PlayStation" app for the PC games they publish) then all games sold though them would be subject to the 12% cut.

Personally I think it's far more likely that instead of making people pay for online gaming, they simply force people to pay for gamepass by putting all Xbox BC games in the "retro classics" category.
 
PC handhelds have been said to have sold 6 million since the launch of the Steamdeck (4 million), Google AI just spat out the number of gaming laptops to be 17 million. (I don't know what time span google used)
Thats over 20 million right there.

But you are assuming every gaming laptop owner and Steamdeck owner will buy this new Xbox hardware. That seems silly to believe right?
 
Do you have numbers to show this?

Call of Duty costs a lot to make now, something like $700 million per game, but it's consistently the best selling game year on year and they make billions on it. It only took ten days for Modern Warfare II to pass $1 billion in revenue and they typically sell 30-40 million copies according to court documents.
what im taking about is for all the money CoD generates, MS needs to spend a shit ton of money too on it. this is not Minecraft situation.

i think ABK was reporting around 1.5 / 2.7 Billion in profit before the MS acquisition. asking to ChatGPT/Grok to estimate CoD contribution:
yAswEBb.jpeg

it sound about right
 
Maybe to you but I know several who would move from Xbox consoles that work on a PC every single day of their lives to a machine like this simply because they do not want to also game on a PC

Many people here have echoed this as well when this topic has been talked about before

There is a market out there just who knows how big it is

None of us that's for sure
I don't think it's a me thing. But I'm sure we are talking about a very small market anyway.
 
If the app resides on the windows store then Microsoft can take a ~12% cut from all transactions that take place through that app.

So for example if valve were to put a steam app on there (and Sony a "PlayStation" app for the PC games they publish) then all games sold though them would be subject to the 12% cut.

Personally I think it's far more likely that instead of making people pay for online gaming, they simply force people to pay for gamepass by putting all Xbox BC games in the "retro classics" category.
Why would anyone want to do MS a favour? They don't need this "Xbox" machine.
 
Also, let's examine the idea that Microsoft taking down their walled garden will push regulators to allow Microsoft's store on PlayStation.

I don't think so. Regulators purposefully didn't look at this when they were looking at Android and iOS in Europe. As long as Sony allows physical media to be played, there are other avenues for stores to compete, which will probably suffice. Unlike with iOS, you can't simply go to a physical store and get an app. It's digital only.

There's also the factor that PlayStations aren't sold at a large profit like iPhones. Sony will argue and likely win on the basis that it would destroy their business and their platform. There's also enough competition from Switch and PC that suggests this isn't a monopoly or even a duopoly.

There's also a slippery slope here. Do all platforms have to open themselves up to competitors?

I think people look at what was going on with iOS in Europe, but they don't look at the details of the case.

You have to have a Gatekeeper designation, which Sony isn't going to get if you can pick up games in retail. It's also a much smaller market and a non-essential market. There are so many key differences between Apple and Sony, but gaming journalism doesn't care to investigate these differences. We need better gaming journalism.
 
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To make a PC have a console like experience?

Maybe

It's just difficult to imagine the benefit for Microsoft or the consumer here. Without getting a cut of all software and a high probability of a subscription service, Microsoft wouldn't be able to subsidize the hardware. And if you are a consumer, you'd have little incentive to buy something off of Steam and if the hardware is expensive, why limit your options? Trying to walk that line just seems like it is combining the worst aspects of both worlds, but considering this is Microsoft, the rumors are probably true.
 
Why would anyone want to do MS a favour? They don't need this "Xbox" machine.

Under the current cut structure they would still get 88% for any game sold via their app, so it would more be a case of "why not".

The bigger question to ask is why would Xbox open themselves up to a scenario where they stand to lose so much more, and could end up seeing absolutely no revenue for purchased/owned games if people simply purchase and redeem Steam keys from 3rd party sites.
 
Or perhaps the complexity of a PC coupled with the limitations of a console, it remains to be seen I suppose. It could go either way.
Basically Game updates taking longer. Why does the Xbox app version of games differ from the Steam Deck version? I've never understood this.
Just copy and paste the damn game between stores.
 
I 100% agree with op posting. Software company is going full software. Hardware = oem; fully eventually.

Deregulated so all parties get full amount and will lead to the end of the "middleman" in this industry.
 
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