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[Walter Matthau]

I'm thinking they'll land somewhere around 157m.

The main focus for Nintendo now and the immediate future is selling Switch 2 hardware so I'm not expecting price reductions or any significant special efforts for the original Switch.

They've certainly already ramped down production and when sales really start to bottom out, they'll discontinue it altogether even if there's still some demand.

 

[TheMan]

I'm very surprised it didn't considering how much the industry must have grown in two and a half decade

 

[blacktout]

Nintendo kills the consoles that don't have legs, and with more 1st party games coming on the OG Switch (Pokémon, Metroid Prime 4, Professor Layton), I can see it being produced for a while, until 2027 at least.

There are at least two new first party Switch 1 games being released in 2026, so I would say that the system remaining in production through the end of 2027 is basically a certainty.

 

[FStubbs]

No. Sony will just find more unreported PS2 sales.

 

[Robb]

I'm thinking they'll land somewhere around 157m.

They'll be at 157M by March 2026 according to their own (Nintendo's) sales estimates, and as blacktout mentioned they also have Switch (1) software already announced releasing into 2026 with Tomodachi Life and Rhythm Heaven. So 157M+ is pretty much a certainty.

 

[IFireflyl]

Home consoles from the current three console makers from the Super Nintendo Entertainment System onward:

Console	Release Date	End of Production	Total Sales	Successor	Successor Release Date	Time Until Successor's Release	Time From Successor's Release until End of Production
Super Nintendo Entertainment System	Sep. 09, 1991	Sep. 30, 2003	49.10 M	N64	Jun. 23, 1996	4 yrs 9 mo	7 yrs 3 mo
Nintendo 64	Jun. 23, 1996	Dec. 31, 2002	32.93 M	GameCube	Sep. 14, 2001	5 yrs 2 mo	1 yr 3 mo
Nintendo GameCube	Sep. 14, 2001	Oct. 31, 2007	21.74 M	Wii	Nov. 19, 2006	5 yrs 2 mo	0 yrs 11 mo
Nintendo Wii	Nov. 19, 2006	Oct. 21, 2013	101.63 M	Wii U	Nov. 18, 2012	5 yrs 11 mo	0 yrs 11 mo
Nintendo Wii U	Nov. 18, 2012	Jan. 31, 2017	13.56 M	Switch	Mar. 03, 2017	4 yrs 3 mo	–1 yr
PlayStation	Dec. 03, 1994	Mar. 31, 2006	102.4 M	PlayStation 2	Mar. 04, 2000	5 yrs 3 mo	6 yrs 0 mo
PlayStation 2	Mar. 04, 2000	Jan. 04, 2013	160.6 M	PlayStation 3	Nov. 11, 2006	6 yrs 8 mo	6 yrs 2 mo
PlayStation 3	Nov. 11, 2006	May. 29, 2017	87.4 M	PlayStation 4	Nov. 15, 2013	7 yrs 0 mo	3 yrs 6 mo
PlayStation 4	Nov. 15, 2013	~2025 (est.)	117.2 M	PlayStation 5	Nov. 12, 2020	7 yrs 0 mo	~5 yrs 1 mo (est.)
PlayStation 5	Nov. 12, 2020	Not Applicable	77.7 M	Not Applicable	Not Applicable	Not Applicable	Not Applicable
Xbox	Nov. 15, 2001	Mar. 02, 2006	24.65 M	Xbox 360	Nov. 22, 2005	4 yrs 0 mo	0 yrs 4 mo
Xbox 360	Nov. 22, 2005	Apr. 20, 2016	84 M	Xbox One	Nov. 22, 2013	8 yrs 0 mo	2 yrs 5 mo
Xbox One	Nov. 22, 2013	Dec. 31, 2020	57.96 M	Xbox Series X/S	Nov. 10, 2020	6 yrs 11 mo	0 yrs 2 mo
Xbox Series	Nov. 10, 2020	Not Applicable	33.12 M	Not Applicable	Not Applicable	Not Applicable	Not Applicable

Handheld consoles from the current three console makers from the Game Boy onward:

Console	Release Date	End of Production	Total Sales	Successor	Successor Release	Time Until Successor's Release	Time From Successor's Release until End of Production
Game Boy	Apr. 21, 1989	Mar. 31, 2003	118.69 M	Game Boy Advance	Mar. 21, 2001	11 yrs 11 mo	2 yrs 0 mo
Game Boy Advance	Mar. 21, 2001	Jun. 30, 2010	81.51 M	Nintendo DS	Nov. 21, 2004	3 yrs 8 mo	5 yrs 7 mo
Nintendo DS	Nov. 21, 2004	Sep. 30, 2014	154.02 M	Nintendo 3DS	Mar. 27, 2011	6 yrs 4 mo	3 yrs 6 mo
Nintendo 3DS	Mar. 27, 2011	Sep. 17, 2020	75.94 M	Nintendo Switch	Mar. 03, 2017	5 yrs 11 mo	3 yrs 6 mo
Nintendo Switch	Mar. 03, 2017	Not Applicable	152.12 M	Nintendo Switch 2	Jun. 05, 2025	8 yrs 3 mo	Not Applicable
PlayStation Portable	Dec. 12, 2004	Jun. 03, 2014	76.4 M	PlayStation Vita	Dec. 17, 2011	7 yrs 0 mo	2 yrs 6 mo
PlayStation Vita	Dec. 17, 2011	Mar. 01, 2019	15.9 M	Not Applicable	Not Applicable	Not Applicable	Not Applicable

 

[Lionel Richie]

Not the way it works, at least wasnt that way till last week

Also, If we are counting gaming hardware PC sold 224mil units as 2024.

Gaming dedicated hardware then my anal friend. And "not the way it works" is Snoy fanboy copium.

 

[kevboard]

No way, when it'll be close enough, Sony will find another warehouse full of PS2 and the total will magically grow to 165m, then 170m, etc... Switch will never have a chance, is over.

I don't think they can do that anymore.
didn't they recently somewhere show the last ever PS2 made? pretty sure it had a manufacturing number that showed how many they made.


edit:
found it!

so 160,636,885
that's the number of PS2 produced. the moment the Switch passes that, it's over, as it's impossible that the PS2 sold more than that.

if the Switch sells 8 million more units, it's over.
but 8 million is kinda a lot for a system that is made essentially redundant by its successor. so maybe if they drop the price enough

 

[Walter Matthau]

They'll be at 157M by March 2026 according to their own (Nintendo's) sales estimates, and as blacktout mentioned they also have Switch (1) software already announced releasing into 2026 with Tomodachi Life and Rhythm Heaven. So 157M+ is pretty much a certainty.

I'm not ruling them out on getting past the PS2. Where I differ from most is I don't think they'll make any real effort to shift more units. Just the same standard bundles we see at the holidays and this may be the last holiday where we even see those. Meanwhile, the secondhand market is and will be flooded with the Switch as everyone upgrades to the S2 which plays S1 games better.

I plan to buy both Tomodachi Life and Rhythm Heaven, but I don't see either of those causing spikes in system sales. What the pipeline looks like after is anyone's guess but 3DS game sales fell off a cliff by 2018 and I don't think it's lost on Nintendo that Switch games become "free" software on other platforms.

We'll see. I feel like the one model that may help get them to the promised land is the Switch Lite even though it's the worst selling S1 variant. It being the most budget friendly model and the most portable which makes it the best option as a gift or to use for game share sessions.

 

[LordOcidax]

I don't think they can do that anymore.
didn't they recently somewhere show the last ever PS2 made? pretty sure it had a manufacturing number that showed how many they made.


edit:
found it!

so 160,636,885
that's the number of PS2 produced. the moment the Switch passes that, it's over, as it's impossible that the PS2 sold more than that.

if the Switch sells 8 million more units, it's over.
but 8 million is kinda a lot for a system that is made essentially redundant by its successor. so maybe if they drop the price enough

The Switch is probably at 154 million sold right now, add another 2 for the rest of the year. Next year is going to happen.

 

[Walter Matthau]

I don't think they can do that anymore.
didn't they recently somewhere show the last ever PS2 made? pretty sure it had a manufacturing number that showed how many they made.


edit:
found it!

so 160,636,885
that's the number of PS2 produced. the moment the Switch passes that, it's over, as it's impossible that the PS2 sold more than that.

if the Switch sells 8 million more units, it's over.
but 8 million is kinda a lot for a system that is made essentially redundant by its successor. so maybe if they drop the price enough

"Due to popular demand we've decided to restart production of the PS2"

 

[Robb]

Where I differ from most is I don't think they'll make any real effort to shift more units.

I don't disagree with that personally and sales are slowing down fast. But with an additional 4.5M they'll already be at 157M by March next year.

I personally think that Switch will beat the Ps2 as long as Nintendo keeps it on the market, and since we know they'll support it in FY2026/27 it's bound to land above 157M at the very least.

They could slash the sales forecast by up to ~60% (to 2M) for March 2027 and it'd still land at 159M.

 

[KenaiPhoenix]

The OP asked whether Switch 1 will surpass PS2, not Switch 2.

EDIT: Fair points all though. I also doubt that Switch 2 can match Switch 1 in sales.

Oh, I thought is was the Switch 2, like a prediction or something.

Dang it, I will take this L my whole life.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

There's no USP at all.

It's a more powerful Switch. It won't outsell the Switch 1.

Think about it... there'll be so many relatively low income households that bought their kids Switches that will outright refuse to buy them a Switch 2, since "it's essentially the same thing."

 

[Buggy Loop]

Virtually no price drop (?). PS2 was basically dirt cheap later in its life

No DVD phenomena

It sort of already won

 

[Gaiff]

There's no USP at all.

It's a more powerful Switch. It won't outsell the Switch 1.

Think about it... there'll be so many relatively low income households that bought their kids Switches that will outright refuse to buy them a Switch 2, since "it's essentially the same thing."

What are you talking about?

 

[Mattyp]

Drop the lite to $149 and sell bulk in Christmas for next two years, you're introducing more to the ecosystem that still may have not and will be future Switch 2 targets too, won't hurt themZ

 

[Hoddi]

Sony had sold ~135m consoles at the same point in time and that was at the height of the HDTV boom. If Nintendo doesn't phase it out soon then I think it will easily exceed the PS2.

$300 is still a lot of money in the developing world and most people there don't have 4k TVs. I think a price drop could boost sales in those countries pretty significantly.