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[Dr. Wilkinson]

That last 6 million it needs can be hard when it's sales slow down to 1 million or less per quarter because of switch 2

Yeah, not during fiscal Q3, though. Switch will definitely still sell decently well October-December this year, and keep in mind is very, very likely to outpace 3DS's sales post-Switch launch. Sales don't slow down *that* much the same year a successor launches. Different audience, looking for different things this late in the cycle. This is not new information. Console cycles have been a thing since the 1980s, there's a lot of data to substantiate this that you can go back and look at.

Contemporarily, just looking at 3DS sales in 2017 and 2018, it sold over 7 million the same year the Switch launched, and 6 million in 2018. Sales didn't fall off a cliff until 2019, once Switch was firmly established.

 

[peronmls]

If it does, it sold well for all the wrong reasons. Nothing it does is new or innovative. Same with the switch 2. It didn't bring any new games.
So what does that mean to you?

 

[Juja]

If it does, it sold well for all the wrong reasons. Nothing it does is new or innovative. Same with the switch 2. It didn't bring any new games.
So what does that mean to you?

I can't find the appropriate GIF because Strangers With Candy wasn't popular enough, but I immediately thought of Jerri Blank saying she was doing the wrong things the right way.

 

[Kataploom]

AKSHUALY every PS3, PS4 and PS5 can play PS2 games so they're, in essence, PS2s as well.

Now srsly, yes it will and also Switch 2 will, probably.

 

[Juja]

AKSHUALY every PS3, PS4 and PS5 can play PS2 games so they're, in essence, PS2s as well.

Now srsly, yes it will and also Switch 2 will, probably.

I do think Switch will surpass PS2. It shouldn't fall off a cliff right away because of crossgen games/being the affordable option. Just looking at Mario Kart 8 still hanging in the charts, I won't be surprised when the day comes that 8 outsells World. If they ever do a 4k Mario Kart 8 update, this will happen sooner than expected.

If they ever drop the price to $200 (maybe even $150 for the Lite), then they'll breeze past PS2 no problem. I'm a bit less optimistic on Switch 2. I don't expect a Wii U type crash, but DS to 3DS is a reasonable - 80ish million. 100 million would be great, but it is just an iterative upgrade, so without truly compelling software for new buyers, the Switch 1 will be seen as "good enough."

 

[Kataploom]

I do think Switch will surpass PS2. It shouldn't fall off a cliff right away because of crossgen games/being the affordable option. Just looking at Mario Kart 8 still hanging in the charts, I won't be surprised when the day comes that 8 outsells World. If they ever do a 4k Mario Kart 8 update, this will happen sooner than expected.

If they ever drop the price to $200 (maybe even $150 for the Lite), then they'll breeze past PS2 no problem. I'm a bit less optimistic on Switch 2. I don't expect a Wii U type crash, but DS to 3DS is a reasonable - 80ish million. 100 million would be great, but it is just an iterative upgrade, so without truly compelling software for new buyers, the Switch 1 will be seen as "good enough."

IDK what makes you thing that Switch 2 won't have a lot of systems sellers, even better, it will have them plus upgraded Switch 1 games. I'm not saying that it definitely will outsell PS2 but considering it has set the world on fire I think so far one can be optimistic without sounding delusional (except for the usual haters, they'll always call you names for liking Nintendo).

Switch 1 doesn't need a price cut tho, it just needs to stay being produced long enough and that's around one year and a half more or two,

 

[SomeNorseGuy]

I'm going to do my part, as soon as store will start doing clearance sales, whenever that might be, of Switch Lites here I'll snatch one up on the cheap.

 

[Durin]

Won't even matter if the Switch does overtake it in overall units sold, it still loses and won't matter.

The entire gaming audience was significantly smaller when the PS2 came out, and yet the PS2 still did those insane numbers.

I doubt we'll ever see a single console dominate like that ever again. GOAT status PS2 is and always will be, I miss that era Sony a lot.

 

[Neff]

Yep

 

[Juja]

IDK what makes you thing that Switch 2 won't have a lot of systems sellers, even better, it will have them plus upgraded Switch 1 games. I'm not saying that it definitely will outsell PS2 but considering it has set the world on fire I think so far one can be optimistic without sounding delusional (except for the usual haters, they'll always call you names for liking Nintendo).

Switch 1 doesn't need a price cut tho, it just needs to stay being produced long enough and that's around one year and a half more or two,

I waited in line for 3 hours at BestBuy on launch night just to get into the store and collect a system I had already paid for. So, believe me that I would love for the Switch 2 to be a success with tons of great games, and I think it will be...

I'm just tempering my expectations a bit. I think DS to 3DS drop seems a reasonable expectation, but 100 million would be great. Hah, I would even love it if things go so wrong that Nintendo had to slash the price and give me free games again - Ambassador Program Redux.

 

[Kataploom]

Won't even matter if the Switch does overtake it in overall units sold, it still loses and won't matter.

The entire gaming audience was significantly smaller when the PS2 came out, and yet the PS2 still did those insane numbers.

I doubt we'll ever see a single console dominate like that ever again. GOAT status PS2 is and always will be, I miss that era Sony a lot.

Then why PS4 and PS5 didn't surpass it easily?

 

[//DEVIL//]

Its possible by the time they discontinue the device to ship 160 million units. It really depends on how well it does this holiday. I assume everyone wants Switch 2 at this point.

They also need to drop the price to clear their inventory. at 300 its a hard sell when the switch 2 is 450

 

[IFireflyl]

I hope the Nintendo Switch doesn't sell more consoles than the PlayStation 2. Not because I have anything against the Switch. The PlayStation 2 was a banger that did so many things right. The games were awesome, and at the point it came out it had a huge impact on me. I loved the PlayStation, but the PlayStation 2 is my favorite console from any generation. I know that someday it will be dethroned, whether by the Nintendo Switch or some other device in a future timeline, but I want the PlayStation 2 to be the undisputed king for a long time.

 

[Durin]

Then why PS4 and PS5 didn't surpass it easily?

Both those consoles didn't do anything transformative, they're using AMD hardware just like Microsoft, most games release on multiple platforms fracturing the overall bigger audience, cross-gen games keep more people on older hardware, and Sony's own first party efforts have gotten more homogenized.

Sony's competition is stronger now as well, where Xbox original was a whole new brand that had to build an audience, and the Gamecube was one of Nintendo's weakest performers ever. I just don't think we'll see that success again when so many of the devices are the same, and have (most) of the same content to sell.

 

[Trunx81]

Nintendo should have Brazil produce a cheaper version of the Switch and they can easily reach those numbers.

In terms of software sales though they're already trumping the PS2 by a mile

 

[Madserb2023]

Doesn't matter. If the Switch sells 161 million, the PS2 will have sold 162 million.

 

[Cakeboxer]

Different times, hard to compare 1:1. Considering all circumstances the Switch sales are already much more impressive to me.

 

[L*][*N*K]

It will sell 160m, but by the time Switch reaches 160 Sony would have sold 10 million PS2s like they did last year

 

[Kataploom]

Both those consoles didn't do anything transformative, they're using AMD hardware just like Microsoft, most games release on multiple platforms fracturing the overall bigger audience, cross-gen games keep more people on older hardware, and Sony's own first party efforts have gotten more homogenized.

Sony's competition is stronger now as well, where Xbox original was a whole new brand that had to build an audience, and the Gamecube was one of Nintendo's weakest performers ever. I just don't think we'll see that success again when so many of the devices are the same, and have (most) of the same content to sell.

Gaming market is bigger but consoles market, I don't think so, we currently have way more variety of gaming devices, also PS2 not only sold to gamers and it sold for two whole generations one being a generation longer than any other prior to it.

Switch success continues to impress specially when it surpass PS2 eventually.

 

[Randall365]

That's why Nintendo made the Switch 2 and Switch boxes so similar.

 

[nordique]

It will, 3ds sold well for a few years after switch launched. I think given bc we see switch sell for more than 1 year into switch 2 life. Nintendo can still do another redesign or price drop

 

[Cakeboxer]

Gaming market is bigger but consoles market, I don't think so, we currently have way more variety of gaming devices, also PS2 not only sold to gamers and it sold for two whole generations one being a generation longer than any other prior to it.

Switch success continues to impress specially when it surpass PS2 eventually.

Tablets and Smartphones are big competition for Switch. Also PS2 was sold <100 Euro at some point, i haven't seen big discounts on Switch yet. Switch Oled is still ~300 Euro

 

[killatopak]

where do these rumors of Song bumping up numbers came from?

They literally had a bust made for the last PS2 made and that was the final shipping numbers.

 

[Baemono]

That last 6 million it needs can be hard when it's sales slow down to 1 million or less per quarter because of switch 2

Don't forget OG Switch will still have a Pokémon game in October, and gen 10 (or 11, I don't recall) will probably be launched on OG Switch as well (as Game Freak doesn't like to jump to a new system without a big install base)

 

[Baemono]

where do these rumors of Song bumping up numbers came from?

They literally had a bust made for the last PS2 made and that was the final shipping numbers.

That was the last production number. They obviously didn't ship the last one produced since it was exposed in a galery or something else.

You don't necesseraly ship all your production.

 

[Hudo]

No. Sony will just pull another couple of million sold PS2 units out of their asses.

 

[killatopak]

That was the last production number. They obviously didn't ship the last one produced since it was exposed in a galery or something else.

You don't necesseraly ship all your production.

That doesn't refute my point though. You literally cannot sell more than what was last produced. How can they magically add more? It's absurd.

 

[Baemono]

That doesn't refute my point though. You literally cannot sell more than what was last produced. How can they magically add more? It's absurd.

Oh sorry I misunderstood your question.

They started blurrying the lines on what was sold exactly during the PS3 era as they were selling more PS2 during that era than PS3 (the PS2 sold 50+ million during the PS3 generation, which was never seen before, nor after), so they were just saying "X million PS units shipped" (which included PS2 and PS3 numbers combined). At the end they stopped reporting the PS2 figures 1 year before the end of production, just stating they sold over 155 million. And it was the only official figure, until recently when Jim Ryan said 160 million.

That's where you have the "Sony pulled up units sold out of nowhere"

 

[awwr999999]

It's honestly quite simple. It depends on whether Nintendo retires it from the market on not in the next FY.

Nintendo's not going to retire an online console that's this close to beating PS2's numbers.
If Nintendo keeps selling Switches the replacement sales alone will eventually give them the win.
Average life of a Switch is 5-10 years and users with a broken Switch have no other way to access their game libraries.

Sony could easily release a new DualSense PS2 console and add those sales to their existing PS2 sales numbers.
Full BC for PS1 and PS2 discs but new DualSense PS1 and PS2 games are only sold via PSN.
A DualSense PS2 would give Sony a legitimate reason to resell users updated versions of every PS1 and PS2 game ever made.

 

[Baemono]

It's honestly quite simple. It depends on whether Nintendo retires it from the market on not in the next FY.

They most certainly won't

 

[Fess]

Yes, as will the Switch 2.

 

[Impotaku]

Sony out there building couch factories so they have plenty of new couches to find ps2 sales down the back of.

No matter how many switches are sold sony will just keep making up a new number to cling to that record it's not like they will need to show any proof. It's rather telling that they haven't even been able to even beat their own console sales record by either PlayStation 3 4 or even 5.

 

[Judge Magister]

 

[DenchDeckard]

I hope the Nintendo Switch doesn't sell more consoles than the PlayStation 2. Not because I have anything against the Switch. The PlayStation 2 was a banger that did so many things right. The games were awesome, and at the point it came out it had a huge impact on me. I loved the PlayStation, but the PlayStation 2 is my favorite console from any generation. I know that someday it will be dethroned, whether by the Nintendo Switch or some other device in a future timeline, but I want the PlayStation 2 to be the undisputed king for a long time.

Everything you said is true about the switch. Its probably dethroned the SNES as the best Nintendo generation of all time. It absolutely deserves to outsell the PS2 IMO.

 

[KungFucius]

How can it not sell 5 million? There are probably more than that out there already. They should be dropping the price to clear out inventory but they are not doing that yet. This is probably because they are still selling well.

The conspiracy theorist in me thinks they want to have plenty of Switches available for Xmas so people who can't get a Switch 2 get a Switch 1 either intentionally or by mistake. Either way, they appear to be trying to milk it until it is dry.