Last call, will the Switch surpass the PS2 or not?

I'm thinking they'll land somewhere around 157m.

The main focus for Nintendo now and the immediate future is selling Switch 2 hardware so I'm not expecting price reductions or any significant special efforts for the original Switch.

They've certainly already ramped down production and when sales really start to bottom out, they'll discontinue it altogether even if there's still some demand.
 
Baemono said:
Nintendo kills the consoles that don't have legs, and with more 1st party games coming on the OG Switch (Pokémon, Metroid Prime 4, Professor Layton), I can see it being produced for a while, until 2027 at least.
Click to expand...

There are at least two new first party Switch 1 games being released in 2026, so I would say that the system remaining in production through the end of 2027 is basically a certainty.
 
Walter Matthau said:
I'm thinking they'll land somewhere around 157m.
Click to expand...
They'll be at 157M by March 2026 according to their own (Nintendo's) sales estimates, and as blacktout blacktout mentioned they also have Switch (1) software already announced releasing into 2026 with Tomodachi Life and Rhythm Heaven. So 157M+ is pretty much a certainty.
 
Home consoles from the current three console makers from the Super Nintendo Entertainment System onward:

ConsoleRelease DateEnd of ProductionTotal SalesSuccessorSuccessor Release DateTime Until Successor's ReleaseTime From Successor's Release until End of Production
Super Nintendo Entertainment SystemSep. 09, 1991Sep. 30, 200349.10 MN64Jun. 23, 19964 yrs 9 mo7 yrs 3 mo
Nintendo 64Jun. 23, 1996Dec. 31, 200232.93 MGameCubeSep. 14, 20015 yrs 2 mo1 yr 3 mo
Nintendo GameCubeSep. 14, 2001Oct. 31, 200721.74 MWiiNov. 19, 20065 yrs 2 mo0 yrs 11 mo
Nintendo WiiNov. 19, 2006Oct. 21, 2013101.63 MWii UNov. 18, 20125 yrs 11 mo0 yrs 11 mo
Nintendo Wii UNov. 18, 2012Jan. 31, 201713.56 MSwitchMar. 03, 20174 yrs 3 mo–1 yr
PlayStationDec. 03, 1994Mar. 31, 2006102.4 MPlayStation 2Mar. 04, 20005 yrs 3 mo6 yrs 0 mo
PlayStation 2Mar. 04, 2000Jan. 04, 2013160.6 MPlayStation 3Nov. 11, 20066 yrs 8 mo6 yrs 2 mo
PlayStation 3Nov. 11, 2006May. 29, 201787.4 MPlayStation 4Nov. 15, 20137 yrs 0 mo3 yrs 6 mo
PlayStation 4Nov. 15, 2013~2025 (est.)117.2 MPlayStation 5Nov. 12, 20207 yrs 0 mo~5 yrs 1 mo (est.)
PlayStation 5Nov. 12, 2020Not Applicable77.7 MNot ApplicableNot ApplicableNot ApplicableNot Applicable
XboxNov. 15, 2001Mar. 02, 200624.65 MXbox 360Nov. 22, 20054 yrs 0 mo0 yrs 4 mo
Xbox 360Nov. 22, 2005Apr. 20, 201684 MXbox OneNov. 22, 20138 yrs 0 mo2 yrs 5 mo
Xbox OneNov. 22, 2013Dec. 31, 202057.96 MXbox Series X/SNov. 10, 20206 yrs 11 mo0 yrs 2 mo
Xbox SeriesNov. 10, 2020Not Applicable33.12 MNot ApplicableNot ApplicableNot ApplicableNot Applicable

Handheld consoles from the current three console makers from the Game Boy onward:

ConsoleRelease DateEnd of ProductionTotal SalesSuccessorSuccessor ReleaseTime Until Successor's ReleaseTime From Successor's Release until End of Production
Game BoyApr. 21, 1989Mar. 31, 2003118.69 MGame Boy AdvanceMar. 21, 200111 yrs 11 mo2 yrs 0 mo
Game Boy AdvanceMar. 21, 2001Jun. 30, 201081.51 MNintendo DSNov. 21, 20043 yrs 8 mo5 yrs 7 mo
Nintendo DSNov. 21, 2004Sep. 30, 2014154.02 MNintendo 3DSMar. 27, 20116 yrs 4 mo3 yrs 6 mo
Nintendo 3DSMar. 27, 2011Sep. 17, 202075.94 MNintendo SwitchMar. 03, 20175 yrs 11 mo3 yrs 6 mo
Nintendo SwitchMar. 03, 2017Not Applicable152.12 MNintendo Switch 2Jun. 05, 20258 yrs 3 moNot Applicable
PlayStation PortableDec. 12, 2004Jun. 03, 201476.4 MPlayStation VitaDec. 17, 20117 yrs 0 mo2 yrs 6 mo
PlayStation VitaDec. 17, 2011Mar. 01, 201915.9 MNot ApplicableNot ApplicableNot ApplicableNot Applicable
 
Last edited:
Kikorin said:
No way, when it'll be close enough, Sony will find another warehouse full of PS2 and the total will magically grow to 165m, then 170m, etc... Switch will never have a chance, is over.
Click to expand...

I don't think they can do that anymore.
didn't they recently somewhere show the last ever PS2 made? pretty sure it had a manufacturing number that showed how many they made.


edit:
found it!

fEqvXpVfXUARpBO7.jpeg



so 160,636,885
that's the number of PS2 produced. the moment the Switch passes that, it's over, as it's impossible that the PS2 sold more than that.

if the Switch sells 8 million more units, it's over.
but 8 million is kinda a lot for a system that is made essentially redundant by its successor. so maybe if they drop the price enough 🤔
 
Last edited:
Robb said:
They'll be at 157M by March 2026 according to their own (Nintendo's) sales estimates, and as blacktout blacktout mentioned they also have Switch (1) software already announced releasing into 2026 with Tomodachi Life and Rhythm Heaven. So 157M+ is pretty much a certainty.
Click to expand...

I'm not ruling them out on getting past the PS2. Where I differ from most is I don't think they'll make any real effort to shift more units. Just the same standard bundles we see at the holidays and this may be the last holiday where we even see those. Meanwhile, the secondhand market is and will be flooded with the Switch as everyone upgrades to the S2 which plays S1 games better.

I plan to buy both Tomodachi Life and Rhythm Heaven, but I don't see either of those causing spikes in system sales. What the pipeline looks like after is anyone's guess but 3DS game sales fell off a cliff by 2018 and I don't think it's lost on Nintendo that Switch games become "free" software on other platforms.

We'll see. I feel like the one model that may help get them to the promised land is the Switch Lite even though it's the worst selling S1 variant. It being the most budget friendly model and the most portable which makes it the best option as a gift or to use for game share sessions.
 
kevboard said:
I don't think they can do that anymore.
didn't they recently somewhere show the last ever PS2 made? pretty sure it had a manufacturing number that showed how many they made.


edit:
found it!

fEqvXpVfXUARpBO7.jpeg



so 160,636,885
that's the number of PS2 produced. the moment the Switch passes that, it's over, as it's impossible that the PS2 sold more than that.

if the Switch sells 8 million more units, it's over.
but 8 million is kinda a lot for a system that is made essentially redundant by its successor. so maybe if they drop the price enough 🤔
Click to expand...
The Switch is probably at 154 million sold right now, add another 2 for the rest of the year. Next year is going to happen.
 
kevboard said:
I don't think they can do that anymore.
didn't they recently somewhere show the last ever PS2 made? pretty sure it had a manufacturing number that showed how many they made.


edit:
found it!

fEqvXpVfXUARpBO7.jpeg



so 160,636,885
that's the number of PS2 produced. the moment the Switch passes that, it's over, as it's impossible that the PS2 sold more than that.

if the Switch sells 8 million more units, it's over.
but 8 million is kinda a lot for a system that is made essentially redundant by its successor. so maybe if they drop the price enough 🤔
Click to expand...
"Due to popular demand we've decided to restart production of the PS2"
 
Walter Matthau said:
Where I differ from most is I don't think they'll make any real effort to shift more units.
Click to expand...
I don't disagree with that personally and sales are slowing down fast. But with an additional 4.5M they'll already be at 157M by March next year.

I personally think that Switch will beat the Ps2 as long as Nintendo keeps it on the market, and since we know they'll support it in FY2026/27 it's bound to land above 157M at the very least.

They could slash the sales forecast by up to ~60% (to 2M) for March 2027 and it'd still land at 159M.
 
There's no USP at all.

It's a more powerful Switch. It won't outsell the Switch 1.

Think about it... there'll be so many relatively low income households that bought their kids Switches that will outright refuse to buy them a Switch 2, since "it's essentially the same thing."
 
TheThreadsThatBindUs said:
There's no USP at all.

It's a more powerful Switch. It won't outsell the Switch 1.

Think about it... there'll be so many relatively low income households that bought their kids Switches that will outright refuse to buy them a Switch 2, since "it's essentially the same thing."
Click to expand...
What are you talking about?
 
Drop the lite to $149 and sell bulk in Christmas for next two years, you're introducing more to the ecosystem that still may have not and will be future Switch 2 targets too, won't hurt themZ
 
Sony had sold ~135m consoles at the same point in time and that was at the height of the HDTV boom. If Nintendo doesn't phase it out soon then I think it will easily exceed the PS2.

$300 is still a lot of money in the developing world and most people there don't have 4k TVs. I think a price drop could boost sales in those countries pretty significantly.
 
RetroGamingUK said:
With the recent price increase has anyone changed their mind?

Maybe Switch 2 will be the one
Click to expand...
I think it showed Nintendo don't care for it, they only want money. But alternatively they could just be waiting until Pokémon is out the way and the SW2 has a bigger install base before reducing prices late 2026.
 
RetroGamingUK said:
With the recent price increase has anyone changed their mind?

Maybe Switch 2 will be the one
Click to expand...
I still think it'll mainly depend on how long they choose to actively support it.

They increased prices but kept their 4.5M estimate so I assume they'll reach 157M by March 2026. Then we know they'll still release new software for it throughout 2026. If they keep it alive up until FY2027/28 they'll definitely get there I think.
 
Last edited:
Robb said:
I still think it'll mainly depend on how long they choose to actively support it.

They increased prices but kept their 4.5M estimate so I assume they'll reach157M by March 2026. Then we know they'll still release new software for it throughout 2026. If they keep it alive up until FY2027/28 they'll definitely get there I think.
Click to expand...

Nintendo have 2 huge new aspects to marketing they didn't have back in 2017

1. Theme parks

2. Movies

Yes, I think Switch 2 has potential to outsell Switch 1
 
RetroGamingUK said:
Nintendo have 2 huge new aspects to marketing they didn't have back in 2017

1. Theme parks

2. Movies

Yes, I think Switch 2 has potential to outsell Switch 1
Click to expand...
Anything's possible. I can see Switch (1) reach +160M but I can't see Switch 2 outperforming it. I'll personally be very surprised if it does.
 
If Nintendo had dropped the price $50 on each model a year ago, I think they'd be knocking on the door right about now. Hell, I think they should have produced an OLED lite back in 2023. I'd have picked one up for shits and giggles.

I saw a video yesterday showing that Walmart have actually slashed prices on the OLED, this is obviously old stock not affected by 'market conditions' and those stores don't want that stuff hanging around because Nintendo decided to increase the fucking price on 8 year old hardware.

https://www.walmart.com/ip/Nintendo...-Con/910582148?classType=REGULAR&athbdg=L1102

Amazon also has the regular and lite models at original MSRP:

https://www.amazon.com/Nintendo-SwitchTM-Neon-Blue-Joy‑ConTM-Switch/dp/B0BFJWCYTL/

https://www.amazon.com/Nintendo-Switch-Lite-Blue/dp/B092VT1JGD/ref=sr_1_1?s=videogames
 
Last edited:
The Switch is dropping fast. Down 53.3% for this quarter compared to last year. Many thought it would be at 155M a month or so ago. It's at 153M. And while it being down 53.3% for the year would be in line with Nintendo's forecast, I think it's going to drop further. With the pricing increase, the Switch 2 is going to look like a better option.
 
kevboard said:
I don't think they can do that anymore.
didn't they recently somewhere show the last ever PS2 made? pretty sure it had a manufacturing number that showed how many they made.


edit:
found it!

fEqvXpVfXUARpBO7.jpeg



so 160,636,885
that's the number of PS2 produced. the moment the Switch passes that, it's over, as it's impossible that the PS2 sold more than that.

if the Switch sells 8 million more units, it's over.
but 8 million is kinda a lot for a system that is made essentially redundant by its successor. so maybe if they drop the price enough 🤔
Click to expand...

Nintendo can easily beat that 160m number the with a simple price cut for the Switch 1, but they won't because money.
 
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