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Monitoring the situation in Iran

DeepEnigma said:
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This is so fucking disingenuous for numerous reasons. Most Americans, weather republican or democrat likely had no idea who Khamenei was, where as Bin Laden was ingrained into nearly all of our brains.
 
LQX said:
This is so fucking disingenuous for numerous reasons. Most Americans, weather republican or democrat likely had no idea who Khamenei was, where as Bin Laden was ingrained into nearly all of our brains.
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I have known who khamenei was longer than bin Laden.

We have plenty of well informed Americans. We just have a lot of dummies too.
 
LQX said:
This is so fucking disingenuous for numerous reasons. Most Americans, weather republican or democrat likely had no idea who Khamenei was, where as Bin Laden was ingrained into nearly all of our brains.
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If they have been paying attention to the news the last few weeks then they know damn well who he is and anyone who gives a shit is one google search away from finding out all they want.

To be fair, however, I did post a video of a Democrat the other day who was quite happy that this asshat is dead. She is Iranian.

Topher said:
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Topher said:
If they have been paying attention to the news the last few weeks then they know damn well who he is and anyone who gives a shit is one google search away from finding out all they want.

To be fair, however, I did post a video of a Democrat the other day who was quite happy that this asshat is dead. She is Iranian.
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And the way I view what I posted is mostly directed at the anti-American politicians pied pipering their base.
 
Clear said:
The only reason to prolong the conflict is to gain territory, which isn't what this is about at all.

The strategic objective here is to destroy the IRGC's ability to project power both internally and externally. Which is a process that can be achieved in a short amount of time by targeting their infrastructure and armaments.

Ultimately I think the logic is that if the IRGC is sufficiently weakened they will not be able to both fight internal dissent, and their external enemies. No military force can do that, no matter how fanatically dedicated to the cause they are.

The Trump admin is looking for a FP win here, the removal of key ally to China and Russia in the middle East, not an extended conflict.
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The main point here is... Without dismantling the IRGC and the entire political system, the IRGC can rebuild and threat the entire region again just with the low tech drones (again, this thing is basically a motorcycle engine with wings) and low tech boats. Or even worse, they could go to a even dark side exactly like what happen with the Iraqis guard. And at that time there were boots on the ground...

Let's wait and see how a phase two of this entire thing will develop and if the population will get on the streets.

edit. Someone posted about the F-15 "undefeated" record. The 104-0 is attributed to the F-15A-C (the light grey jet) in air to air only. There are other F-15E (the dark grey) combat losses, although from ground fire (and the E is not a "pure fighter")
 
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This is a fun read, but the author cautions that little real info has found its way out of Iran since the Internet there is down as usual, this may be disinformation but you can still entertain yourself for 5 minutes
 
This "war effort" seems like a Putin level blunder wandering into Ukraine thinking that Ukrainians will just magically accept them with open arms.
Trump thought that Iranians are just waiting for US to come rescue them because they want to be under US control. That's prime ignorance on Trump's part and the rest of his incompetent team - blatant American narcissism, but this has been the playbook for decades.
It seems that Israel initiated the attack and US was "forced" to join in. There didn't seem much thought put into this. Taking out the top religious leader was only going to make him a martyr and infuriate his supporters.
Sure in the US, if Trump was to be removed somehow, many people would cheer (the majority of the population, in fact), but it doesn't mean people would want a China or Russia waltzing in picking the next leader or bombing major cities to achieve it.
As much as I dislike all ass-backwards Islamic regimes, from what I'm reading and trying to understand, US stepped into some serious shit. They already depleted their munitions stock in Ukraine, they have been supplying Israel, and Iran has been using cheap munitions to exhaust the air defense missiles at US bases.
Iran hasn't even tapped into the good stuff yet. If it becomes a war of attrition, Israel and American bases are going to be f*ed without a serious escalation.
Peace president my ass. This is what happens when you let a child rapist run a country.
 
Hot5pur said:
This "war effort" seems like a Putin level blunder wandering into Ukraine thinking that Ukrainians will just magically accept them with open arms.
Trump thought that Iranians are just waiting for US to come rescue them because they want to be under US control. That's prime ignorance on Trump's part and the rest of his incompetent team - blatant American narcissism, but this has been the playbook for decades.
It seems that Israel initiated the attack and US was "forced" to join in. There didn't seem much thought put into this. Taking out the top religious leader was only going to make him a martyr and infuriate his supporters.
Sure in the US, if Trump was to be removed somehow, many people would cheer (the majority of the population, in fact), but it doesn't mean people would want a China or Russia waltzing in picking the next leader or bombing major cities to achieve it.
As much as I dislike all ass-backwards Islamic regimes, from what I'm reading and trying to understand, US stepped into some serious shit. They already depleted their munitions stock in Ukraine, they have been supplying Israel, and Iran has been using cheap munitions to exhaust the air defense missiles at US bases.
Iran hasn't even tapped into the good stuff yet. If it becomes a war of attrition, Israel and American bases are going to be f*ed without a serious escalation.
Peace president my ass. This is what happens when you let a child rapist run a country.
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Ukraine is still fighting off Russia 4 years later. Most of Iran's leadership was gutted in 4 hours and their air defenses rendered useless. Hell, US allies are more of a threat to US jets than Iran.

Military wise, this is nothing like Ukraine.
 
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Hot5pur said:
This "war effort" seems like a Putin level blunder wandering into Ukraine thinking that Ukrainians will just magically accept them with open arms.
Trump thought that Iranians are just waiting for US to come rescue them because they want to be under US control. That's prime ignorance on Trump's part and the rest of his incompetent team - blatant American narcissism, but this has been the playbook for decades.
It seems that Israel initiated the attack and US was "forced" to join in. There didn't seem much thought put into this. Taking out the top religious leader was only going to make him a martyr and infuriate his supporters.
Sure in the US, if Trump was to be removed somehow, many people would cheer (the majority of the population, in fact), but it doesn't mean people would want a China or Russia waltzing in picking the next leader or bombing major cities to achieve it.
As much as I dislike all ass-backwards Islamic regimes, from what I'm reading and trying to understand, US stepped into some serious shit. They already depleted their munitions stock in Ukraine, they have been supplying Israel, and Iran has been using cheap munitions to exhaust the air defense missiles at US bases.
Iran hasn't even tapped into the good stuff yet. If it becomes a war of attrition, Israel and American bases are going to be f*ed without a serious escalation.
Peace president my ass. This is what happens when you let a child rapist run a country.
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This comes off like someone who doesn't understand the ins and outs of what led up to this and why it started. If you completely ignore Orange Man and do some digging, it's there.
I've been following Iran, even more so within the last 5 years because my bosses are Persian. They told me all about the CIA, The Sha. They filled the gaps of the knowledge I didn't fully have.
I'm all for crushing the IRGC and don't forget, there is so much happening right now, we cannot know everything and there is so much hidden on purpose. Again, we cannot know everything.
Last time Trump was in office, he couldn't keep a secret. He had 4 years to prevent the same bullshit that had him firing cabinet members, left and right in his first term. Incompetents.
 
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Hot5pur said:
As much as I dislike all ass-backwards Islamic regimes, from what I'm reading and trying to understand, US stepped into some serious shit.
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Any day now Iran's fleet of hidden star destroyers will emerge out of the desert sands to destroy the American pigdogs, surely.
 

The person in the video is Scott Ritter, a former U.S. Marine Corps intelligence officer and UN weapons inspector. He's providing analysis on Iran's military performance in the recent conflict with Israel. Iran is doing extremely well militarily, with missiles precisely hitting intended targets and inflicting high costs on Israeli infrastructure. Caution against exaggerated claims and unreliable Israeli officer reports—many described as dead men walking. Netanyahu warned Trump beforehand. Iran draws unbreakable resilience from faith and history like the Battle of Karbala. Critiques US/Israeli efforts to topple the theocracy by force or selective media. Trump noted for some successes but limited influence.
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calico said:
The US would take just as aggressive an approach to protecting itself from the encroachment of a major adversary as Russia did. In fact the US is aggressing upon a minor adversary nation thousands of miles away right now using the justification that it could potentially pose a threat to the US in the future, and it has done this before.

Having that desire is perfectly rational, but being able to act upon that desire is a different matter, and Russia only felt emboldened to act upon that desire due to periods of incredibly weak Western leadership under, ostensibly, Obama and Biden. Ukraine being on a glide path to eventual NATO membership is seen by Russia (correctly) as an existential threat to Russia, and the gift of such weak US leadership was seen as too good an opportunity to pass up in terms of pushing back against that.

As poorly as the subsequent war has gone for Russia, if it ends in anything like a stalemate on the current position and Ukraine NATO membership off the table for the foreseeable future, Russia will consider it better than the alternative.
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Certainly didn't expect to pop in here and see people openly posting Russian propaganda.

Putin doesn't give a damn about Ukraine and NATO. He knows Ukraine had no real path to become a member, because even the U.S. wouldn't vote them in. Several other members would not have voted them in, and agreement has to be unanimous.

Putin invaded in 2014 to stop Ukraine from joining the EU and any alignment with the West. His principal ambition has always been the restoration of the Russian empire spanning Russia, Belarus and Ukraine…and seizing Crimea and starting the civil war started the process. Putin also knew NATO would never admit a country under civil war. There was precisely zero progress on the NATO front for Ukraine when he invaded in 2022.

Best to focus on this war instead of carrying water for a country that hates the U.S. with a passion.
 
Bojji said:
Russia is always evil, they were never "the good guys". Even when they were liberating Europe from Hitler their armies committed atrocities similar (sometimes even worse) to German soldiers. After that they swallowed the whole of Eastern Europe. Fucking liberators...



That's super naive thinking. Putin was already invading countries before this shit with Ukraine even started. Former Iron Curtain countries joined Nato because they feared that this shit will happen in the future. Russia is eternal enemy of all countries around it.

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Please feel free to tell me who the good guys are.
 
Presumably the idea is that the need to shoot down Iranian missiles over their targets will rapidly reduce as air superiority allows the continual degradation of Iran's ability to launch them in the first place. If this does not end up happening, then something will have gone badly wrong with maintaining or making use of the air superiority.
 
LordCBH said:
When they killed Bin Laden, I yelled "FUCK YEAH BARACK!" and I disliked that man lol. Having OBL killed was his finest work and I still will yell "FUCK YEAH BARACK!" when I think about it lol.
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No one shed a tear over Bin Laden. But it was still a violation of the geneva convention and international humanitarian law and Obama should have been sued in Den Haag for it. No country and no leader did though. They all just watched an assassination and even applauded it (which again, is relatable on an emotional level, but still a violation of very important virtues to all democracies across the globe).

Today all the lefties and wokies scream "humanitarian law" whenever it can be used against peoples and for dictators. Be it Hamas, Maduro or now Khamenei…

Imho either you apply humanitarian law in all cases, or you don't, in which case humanitarian law is just useless. There's no gap inbetween.
 
kruis said:
And it could happen again according to the same author.

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This guys track record on predicting what will happen is not very good.

"But, as is now readily apparent to all objective, knowledgeable military analysts around the globe, the Ukrainian proxy army has been pulverized by a patient, methodical, and significantly outnumbered Russian force, using long-established Russian doctrines and tactics."
- july 2022

"One thing few seem to appreciate is that what Ukraine has done over the past several days near Kherson and Kharkov does not even come close to what constitutes a "counter-offensive". They've done nothing but launch highly localized severely under-powered probes which, sooner than later, become nothing but cramped kill zones for massed Russian artillery and air strikes."
- September 2022

"It is a foregone conclusion that Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye, and Kherson regions of the former Novorossiya will be re-assimilated into the Russian motherland.
Odessa will follow at some point in the not-so-distant future."
- September 2022

"Russia Is Winning with One Hand Tied Behind Its Back"
- April 2023

imetatronink.substack.com

Lessons Never Learned

As the collapse of the Mother of All Proxy Armies in Ukraine continues to accelerate, the #EmpireAtAllCosts ventriloquists are once again flapping a US president’s mouth to raise the spectre of war against Iran.
imetatronink.substack.com imetatronink.substack.com
Repeating the infamous Millennium 2002 excercise where the US lost a bunch of carriers and predicting the same will happen now is the US attacks Iran.
Which was basically me defeating Magnus Carlsen at chess after bullying the organizers into replacing all my pawns with queens.
 
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vodka-bull said:
No one shed a tear over Bin Laden. But it was still a violation of the geneva convention and international humanitarian law and Obama should have been sued in Den Haag for it. No country and no leader did though. They all just watched an assassination and even applauded it (which again, is relatable on an emotional level, but still a violation of very important virtues to all democracies across the globe).

Today all the lefties and wokies scream "humanitarian law" whenever it can be used against peoples and for dictators. Be it Hamas, Maduro or now Khamenei…

Imho either you apply humanitarian law in all cases, or you don't, in which case humanitarian law is just useless. There's no gap inbetween.
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The left have always been very hypocritical, and just can't see past their irrational hatred for Trump, same with most of the mainstream media.
 
P:axMagellanic said:
Rubio sweating like he's on a rape charge.
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I think what Iran can do or will actually do, are two very different things. Don't forget when Israel launched their initial attacks on Iran, the U.S flew into their country, bombed their nuclear sites and returned home pretty much undetected. Iran at the time promised mass retaliations, that nothing much came out of. This time it's still a rather tepid response, as they know they are outmatched.
 
calico said:
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Giving Ukraine the weapons wasn't the problem. Most of those were made to destroy Russian tanks and airplanes and they've done the job quite well with zero American casualties.

it may well be the best investment the U.S. military has made in a long time.

The real issue is the lack of replacement, as well as bureaucracy. Why does it take one month to make a single Patriot missile? why are Lockheed, Raytheon and the likes so slow? why did Biden not commission significant rearmament? Tons of jobs would have been created in factories to make 155mm artillery ammo, air defence missiles, HIMARS missiles and more ATACMS.
 
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