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[joe_zazen]

10TFlops max. Anything above that would be mind-blowing. Smallest GPU jump across generation, with most ambitious image quality target 4k and 8k upscaled. Man if navi was not so disappointing we could have had something nice.

I’d be happy if we had 8TF at 1080 as the bump to 4k and 8k in gaming just isn't something i care about wrt flat gaming. That would be lots of power to push 1080 and loads of effects. But the jump to 4k is going to eat most of that 8TF, according to Cerny .

So whatever we get above 8TF will be where non resolution stuff happens. Ms and Sony are working within very tight power and $ constraints. And no company is going to want to sell their first 10 million consoles with a $100+ per unit loss ($1 billion+ loss per 10 million boxes, how many games could be funded? How many studios bought?). So we might only end up with the navi equivalent of Stadia’s 10.7 vega TF, which is 8-9 Navi Gpu.

I think it will come down to how much being the power leader drives sales and whether that money could be invested better elsewhere. From my pov, I’d rather have 8TF console and a billion more in game development than a 11TF console and way less software.

 

[Thedtrain]

I still think we end up 10+ Tflops. Mostly based on that Schreier quote...

“In other words, don’t expect much in the way of substantial leakage just yet. The only thing to know for sure is that both Sony and Microsoft are aiming higher than that ‘10.7 teraflops’”

So what’s that? 56CU @1400-1500Mhz?

 

[SpinningBirdKick]

The lockhart cancelation breaks Digital Foundry heart.

There's no way it's cancelled. MS couldn't afford the hit on the income the lower SKU brings in from software and services.

I think it will be discless to push those low profit margin customers towards gamepass and online purchases. From a MS business perspective it makes a lot of sense from several angles. Developers will likely hate it though because ports won't be as straight forward as they're trying to make out.

Don't even get me started on digital foundry!

 

[rəddəM]

Since this is the thread of the moment.
I highly doubt my 14TF prediction now.
I think it'll be 10TF or 12TF and the priority will be efficiency and quietness.

 

[ethomaz]

Since this is the thread of the moment.
I highly doubt my 14TF prediction now.
I think it'll be 10TF or 12TF and the priority will be efficiency and quietness.

The power draw of Navi put me on the below 12TFs side too... I believe the max will be 11.x TFs.

That is what happens when you believe in these marketing claims... 1.5x, 1.25x, etc.
I just hope to not be more disappointed after the real bechmarks goes live

 

[CrustyBritches]

I guess it's time to dust off the old gaf account.

Did GAF just bust SpinningBirdKick out of reeee-prison?

 

[joe_zazen]

The lockhart cancelation breaks Digital Foundry heart.

Some people really want that thing. Is it because they believe it would allow MS to destroy Sony with Anaconda power, thereby giving them 7 years of forum bragging?

It would be shit to have a 4 TF baseline untill 2027. Lockhart’s cancellation should be celebrated.

 

[joe_zazen]

I still think we end up 10+ Tflops. Mostly based on that Schreier quote...

“In other words, don’t expect much in the way of substantial leakage just yet. The only thing to know for sure is that both Sony and Microsoft are aiming higher than that ‘10.7 teraflops’”

So what’s that? 56CU @1400-1500Mhz?

That guy isn’t a tech guy and the fact that Navi will be pushing fewer TF but performing better wasn't know by him at the time. It might be the equivalent, or slightly more in terms of irl performance than 10.7 Vega, but in terms of raw TF....

...just remember Matt did post that there is a very good reason MS and Sony will be avoiding all talk of TF. My guess is that it is less than 10.7, and less than twice x1x. Matt is a mod at reset (& former gaf) that has a very long and unblemished insider track record.

Edit: and come to think of it, Stadia might be why MS has dropped all talk if most powerful console period talk. Because they know for a fact as far as flops go, they wont be, not because of sony.

 

[ethomaz]

Some people really want that thing. Is it because they believe it would allow MS to destroy Sony with Anaconda power, thereby giving them 7 years of forum bragging?

It would be shit to have a 4 TF baseline untill 2027. Lockhart’s cancellation should be celebrated.

Exactly it was bad for development of new games.
Even so I don't believe Lockhart is canceled... it was jut no the time to talk about it.

 

[Thedtrain]

That guy isn’t a tech guy and the fact that Navi will be pushing fewer TF but performing better wasn't know by him at the time. It might be the equivalent, or slightly more in terms of irl performance than 10.7 Vega, but in terms of raw TF....

...just remember Matt did post that there is a very good reason MS and Sony will be avoiding all talk of TF. My guess is that it is less than 10.7, and less than twice x1x. Matt is a mod at reset (& former gaf) that has a very long and unblemished insider track record.

Edit: and come to think of it, Stadia might be why MS has dropped all talk if most powerful console period talk. Because they know for a fact as far as flops go, they wont be, not because of sony.

You’re right... I won’t be crushed by less than that. I’m hopeful, but I’d expect some amazing looking and playing games regardless of floppage.

 

[SpinningBirdKick]

Did GAF just bust SpinningBirdKick out of reeee-prison?

I'll be where ever the conversation is worthwhile.

Mods everywhere have a tough time, I understand that.

I'm sure astroturfers generate plenty of content/advert impressions and engagement which is a net positive for many sites.

But now as I'm older, shit like that feels really underhand and exploitative. Not just from the companies doing the astroturfing but those that allow it to continue. It's their user base the astroturfers are manipulating. For mods to turn a blind eye to it and singling out someone highlighting the problem speaks volumes to where their loyalties lie.

 

[CrustyBritches]

...just remember Matt did post that there is a very good reason MS and Sony will be avoiding all talk of TF.

I don't follow reeee-, only their next-gen thread. Is that Matt Pettineo from RAD, or old Darkwing Duck Matt that allowed GAF to believe he was the former and even game outlets published articles based on his posts under this assumption?

Mods everywhere have a tough time, I understand that.

Reeee- gets butthurt easily. Mods here aren't so emotionally and ideologically tied to the forum that they can't cope.

 

[Negotiator]

From my pov, I’d rather have 8TF console and a billion more in game development than a 11TF console and way less software.

It would be shit to have a 4 TF baseline untill 2027. Lockhart’s cancellation should be celebrated.

You assume that a 10TF+ baseline will yield more next-gen AAA games, but that's just not true.

Look at current-gen: it's normal for top-rated AAA games to have extremely lengthy dev cycles (games like RDR2 or Cyberpunk 2077 take 7-8 years to make and that's with a measly 1.31 TF baseline).

People want a 10TF baseline because they demand better graphics/production values, but are they willing to accept 10+ year dev cycles?

MS with a 4TF baseline will be able to churn out far more games than Sony will with a 10TF+ baseline. Bigger worlds with more detail have their cost, not just in monetary terms, but most importantly in time (and time cannot be bought).

There's also a chance that Microsoft's baseline will remain at 1.31 TF, which means even more games. It's a trade-off, so you have to decide what you want. 7th gen had more AAA games than 8th gen. 9th gen will have even less games and so on (unless generation leaps stop happening).

 

[ethomaz]

I don't follow reeee-, only their next-gen thread. Is that Matt Pettineo from RAD, or old Darkwing Duck Matt that allowed GAF to believe he was the former and even game outlets published articles based on his posts under this assumption?


Reeee- gets butthurt easily. Mods here aren't so emotionally and ideologically tied to the forum that they can't cope.

Matt mod is the old GAF Matt... he still uses that avatar.

 

[llien]

Since this is the thread of the moment.
I highly doubt my 14TF prediction now.
I think it'll be 10TF or 12TF and the priority will be efficiency and quietness.

14TF was supposed to mean "faster than Vega 64". (which is at 12.6Tflops)
AMD has just rolled out 9Tflop 5700XT, that is 15% faster than Vega 64.

As the assumption of perf/tflop being constant is obviously wrong, so are all tflop estimates.

On the other hand, 14Tflop meant exactly that, 15%-ish faster than Vega 64, and, viola, we have that on 250mm^2 chip.

 

[demigod]

Reeee- gets butthurt easily. Mods here aren't so emotionally and ideologically tied to the forum that they can't cope.

Just the other day I saw some dude get a warning for asking if it's ok if he didn't believe in the victim in regards to the Unity sex assault, haha. I think he got a ban afterwards.

 

[llien]

I'll try my best not to upset anyone with my common sense. I've learned it's not always appreciated.

Neo-NeoGAF has much thicker skin, so feel free to bash users with your controversial opinion.
And welcome back!

I believe Lockhart was cancelled because PS5 is more powerful than Anaconda. No point in having 2 consoles weaker than PS5.

But how could PS5 be 20%-ish faster?

 

[joe_zazen]

But now as I'm older, shit like that feels really underhand and exploitative. Not just from the companies doing the astroturfing but those that allow it to continue. It's their user base the astroturfers are manipulating. For mods to turn a blind eye to it and singling out someone highlighting the problem speaks volumes to where their loyalties lie.

Cant stand astroturfing either, especially when folks start to believe it and become unpaid shills. I cant even stand listening to some playstation podcasters now because they are like gamepass evangelists. In a world with humble bundles, psnow, and epic giving away games....anyway, whoever MS is paying to push the gamepass narrative is earning their money.

I don't follow reeee-, only their next-gen thread. Is that Matt Pettineo from RAD, or old Darkwing Duck Matt that allowed GAF to believe he was the former and even game outlets published articles based on his posts under this assumption?


Reeee- gets butthurt easily. Mods here aren't so emotionally and ideologically tied to the forum that they can't cope.

Darkwing. He aint jesus, but ive never known him to be wrong.

You assume that a 10TF+ baseline will yield more next-gen AAA games, but that's just not true.

Look at current-gen: it's normal for top-rated AAA games to have extremely lengthy dev cycles (games like RDR2 or Cyberpunk 2077 take 7-8 years to make and that's with a measly 1.31 TF baseline).

People want a 10TF baseline because they demand better graphics/production values, but are they willing to accept 10+ year dev cycles?

MS with a 4TF baseline will be able to churn out far more games than Sony will with a 10TF+ baseline. Bigger worlds with more detail have their cost, not just in monetary terms, but most importantly in time (and time cannot be bought).

There's also a chance that Microsoft's baseline will remain at 1.31 TF, which means even more games. It's a trade-off, so you have to decide what you want. 7th gen had more AAA games than 8th gen. 9th gen will have even less games and so on (unless generation leaps stop happening).

Food for thought. Definately.

 

[TeamGhobad]

Neo-NeoGAF has much thicker skin, so feel free to bash users with your controversial opinion.
And welcome back!



But how could PS5 be 20%-ish faster?

i dont know, adding cloud tech on SoC, secret sauce?

 

[joe_zazen]

Matt mod is the old GAF Matt... he still uses that avatar.

Not anymore. The voice actor apparently was a wife beater and sex abuser.

 

[ethomaz]

Not anymore. The voice actor apparently was a wife beater and sex abuser.

Ohhhh I didn’t know.

 

[CrustyBritches]

Matt mod is the old GAF Matt... he still uses that avatar.

Thanks. The weird insider culture that left GAF and became reeee- results in some awkward situations. There's a number of dudes treated like that on there and they do the same thing imposter Matt did back during the gamingbolt faux pas. One of the "tells" I've observed is being very technical in analysis with huge spread on prediction.

They have a guy with a table where his prediction is like the whole possible spread. Another is that Jason Scheier meant 10.7TF, but after people saw Navi they switched to Navi equiv of 10.7TF Vega. Also guys arguing for HBM2 and double switching. If you don't pay attention they will just selectively revisit their history and assert they were always right. Tormentos style.

I think he got a ban afterwards.

They probably had him on the pre-ban list.

Darkwing. He aint jesus, but ive never known him to be wrong.

This is years ago. I respect Matt Pettineo and his skill is apparent, but you should know they even contacted him about it and he was like, "wuuut?". People under NDA don't tend to spout in certain ways that forumites do.

 

[Night.Ninja]

Cant stand astroturfing either, especially when folks start to believe it and become unpaid shills. I cant even stand listening to some playstation podcasters now because they are like gamepass evangelists. In a world with humble bundles, psnow, and epic giving away games....anyway, whoever MS is paying to push the gamepass narrative is earning their money.



Darkwing. He aint jesus, but ive never known him to be wrong.



Food for thought. Definately.

but gamepass is good deal, no?

 

[joe_zazen]

but gamepass is good deal, no?

If there is stuff on there you want to play, yeah, sub and be happy. But the narrative is that you’d be a fool not to sub and that it is going to drive the whole of next gen because it is just that amazing.

It is a just another sub service.if you like ubi games, then the ubi service is great. If you like ea then go there, if you want playstation games then psnow. They are only a good deal if you like the content, and since gamepass aint going to have all of the games, then ot is no different to any of the other ones.

Imo, the best deal is steam’s 2 hour demo policy. I’d pay $4.99 per mo for that on PlayStation.

 

[SpinningBirdKick]

Cant stand astroturfing either, especially when folks start to believe it and become unpaid shills. I cant even stand listening to some playstation podcasters now because they are like gamepass evangelists. In a world with humble bundles, psnow, and epic giving away games....

Yes, games are big business these days. Forums, Youtube and social media are just the marketing weapons of choice these days compared to print magazines of the past.

anyway, whoever MS is paying to push the gamepass narrative is earning their money.

...and whoever is running their next gen forum campaign at reee should be fired. It must be embarrassing have to follow that agenda. But I suppose an astroturfers gotta eat too, right?

 

[Night.Ninja]

If there is stuff on there you want to play, yeah, sub and be happy. But the narrative is that you’d be a fool not to sub and that it is going to drive the whole of next gen because it is just that amazing.

i don't think its a narrative, its a good deal for subscribers and developers.

 

[joe_zazen]

Yes, games are big business these days. Forums, Youtube and social media are just the marketing weapons of choice these days compared to print magazines of the past.



...and whoever is running their next gen forum campaign at reee should be fired. It must be embarrassing have to follow that agenda. But I suppose an astroturfers gotta eat too, right?

No doubt.

.And whenever any suggest these companies don't do this, i point them to Microsoft’s having dead people write letters to senators and newspapers back in the anti trust days, and Bill Gate’s use of ‘grassroots’ organisations to push his political agenda in different US states.

 

[ethomaz]

i don't think its a narrative, its a good deal for subscribers and developers.

I don’t think it is that good for developers...

The share of the revenue should be pretty low with the amount of games... that is why the games that rely on MTX and engagement are more suitable for Gamepass and where the dev got the money back.

It helps with exposure thought.

 

[SpinningBirdKick]

Thanks. The weird insider culture that left GAF and became reeee- results in some awkward situations. There's a number of dudes treated like that on there and they do the same thing imposter Matt did back during the gamingbolt faux pas. One of the "tells" I've observed is being very technical in analysis with huge spread on prediction.

They have a guy with a table where his prediction is like the whole possible spread.

Ever wondered why that spreadsheet always shows the PS5 as an under performer?

The Twitter account of the owner has plenty of pointers. Flick through the timeline for a few hints. https://mobile.twitter.com/ColbertIam

 

[Night.Ninja]

I don’t think it is that good for developers...

The share of the revenue should be pretty low with the amount of games... that is why the games that rely on MTX and engagement are more suitable for Gamepass and where the dev got the money back.

It helps with exposure thought.

but aint developers getting paid every time their game gets downloaded on game pass? im sure there's a lot of games that people would not have played if it wasn't for games pass

 

[Dlacy13g]

I am in the 11-12TFlop range for both because we know both Sony and MS are looking to best Stadia on paper.

 

[joe_zazen]

i don't think its a narrative, its a good deal for subscribers and developers.

If you like the games on offer, yeah....like every other sub service. If you dont, then no it is not a good deal. And as far as devs go, none of it has been made public.

But it has transcended that though. “You’d be an idiot not to sub, right? It is gonna drive next gen, and sony has to respond because it is just that unbelievably good. Best part of E3 was gampass! “

I mean if someone was selling me a car, and talking like that, i’d walk away.

 

[ethomaz]

but aint developers getting paid every time their game gets downloaded on game pass? im sure there's a lot of games that people would not have played if it wasn't for games pass

Yes it is but for every game so the revenue share is definitively low...

It helps with exposure like I said.

Edit - Just to make more clear my thinking... there are 5 millions os subs paying an avg. of $5 per month... $25m revenue... how much MS take from that? Now how much do you thing ends to all developers hands in the program? $1k? $10k? $100k? I mean any developer that sell more 100k units of it game won't want to enter in the Gamepass unless it can get more from the MTX.

It was the same discussion we have about PS Plus before this gen... how much Sony shares with developers? It is pretty low so you are on Plus if you game:

- Bombed at launch
- You have a sequel so you drop the Plus a month before the sequel launch
- You want exposure of your game to sell after DLCs or future games

These are the Gamepass typically game developers... or Plus.

You won't see (outside first-party) AAA games there near the launch.

Games developed to Gamepass will be mostly low budget focused on online play with DLC, MTX, etc.

 

[CrustyBritches]

I love Game Pass. I have 3 subs for me and my sons(2 X1S, 1 XO). I pay ~$60/yr either through Black Friday/Cyber Monday, or cdkeys for the same deal. We get MS 1st-party offerings, and I can play on my PC if I want, even crossplatform.

I look at it more like a rental service like Blockbuster Unlimited. I was happy with that at $35/month I could go in and grab any 2 games any time quick scan and leave. Game Pass gives you that for ~$6 on deal and you don't have to worry about the games being out.

So for the price of 1 brand new $60 game for each of us, I can pay for 3x Game Pass for the whole year. They can't damage or loan the games. Best of all we always have the same set of games to play. It's the best feeling when they dig out some cool game I haven't played and tell me to play with them. It's our seamless digital sandbox.

 

[Night.Ninja]

If you like the games on offer, yeah. If you dont, then no. And as far as devs go, none of it has been made public.

But it has transcended that though. “You’d be an idiot not to sub, right? It is gonna drive next gen, and sony has to respond because it is just that unbelievably good. Best part of E3 was gampass! “

I mean if someone was selling me a car, and talking like that, i’d walk away.

Regardless of how there selling it gamepass is a good deal, you cant get caught up in the sony has to do somethings crap, if sony did something similar it would be good for gamers right?

 

[xool]

But it has transcended that though. “You’d be an idiot not to sub, right? It is gonna drive next gen, and sony has to respond because it is just that unbelievably good. Best part of E3 was gampass! “

I'm hearing exactly the same voices on GamePass now as I heard on Kinect back in 2010 - the "Gamepass is changing the way people play" and "Gamepass is disruptive" and "Gamepass is revolutionary" particularly grate with me because I heard the exact same phrases but replace "gamepass" with "kinect".

I keep meaning to say "Gamepass -- a new way to play pay" .. but I'm not a big enough troll.

100% feels like astroturf, or a fuckton of cool-aid.

 

[xool]

[...]

- Bombed at launch
- You have a sequel so you drop the Plus a month before the sequel launch
- You want exposure of your game to sell after DLCs or future games

These are the Gamepass typically game developers... or Plus.

You won't see (outside first-party) AAA games there near the launch.

Games developed to Gamepass will be mostly low budget focused on online play with DLC, MTX, etc.

This is my super-objection to Gamepass - if MS continues to insist that all Xbox console exclusives are coming to gamepass it basically means it's not worth their while to make an amazing game that makes a ton of money - the opposite - it encourages mediocre/shelf-filling - and is a nail in the coffin of xbox first party ..


I want Holywood blockbusters, not cableTV

 

[SonGoku]

Didn't some reliable person on Twitter confirm both consoles will definitely have more than Stadia's TFs?

Jason from kekaku

Works great for PR, and it’s doable in different forms, could well be screen space hardware accelerated path tracing for all we know ...

I also think 36 CU is the max for consoles ...

lol no, the strength of the 7nm process is in the density increase not the performance/clocks
Consoles will go with 64 to 72CUs total (56 to 64 enabled respectively)

My prediction is 11TF minimum for a $399 system
12-13TF for $499

It's supposed to be - -35% power just from 14/16nm to 10nm, and similar again to 7nm...

7nm doesn't have as much performance increment as past node transitions, its strenght is in the density increase

I'm definitely thinking they Vega'ed it again at this point, meaning the retail cards are pushed too far past their optimal point trying to match targets from Nvidia (2070), while a small drop in clocks would lead to a disproportionate reduction in power as it did for Vega.

Which is why i think anything less than 56CUs (enabled) is not happening.

The power draw of Navi put me on the below 12TFs side too.

64CUs (72 total - 8 disabled) at 1500 Mhz = 12.2TF on plain 7nm is doable
If they go with 7nm EUV 13-14TF is possible

On the other hand, 14Tflop meant exactly that, 15%-ish faster than Vega 64, and, viola, we have that on 250mm^2 chip.

Who set the bar there though?
Sony/MS are not aiming for some artificial ceiling, they will aim to create the fastest boxes technology allows for $500, every bit of performance counts for a proper next gen leap, 4k alone will eat a huge chunk of resources.

Not to mention that 36CU chip is clocked way to high fit on a console. They'll need to downclock it for console and then its below Vega64 territory.
The best bet is a 64 to 72 CU chip

 

[SonGoku]

Hello all

I guess it's time to dust off the old gaf account.

I'll try my best not to upset anyone with my common sense. I've learned it's not always appreciated.

Now about those TF... j/k

Welcome
Im a fan of your hornest kicking abilities

 

[MadAnon]

lol no, the strength of the 7nm process is in the density increase not the performance/clocks
Consoles will go with 64 to 72CUs total (56 to 64 enabled respectively)

Did you even saw the TDP on that 40CU 5700XT? 180w! Unless they significantly underclock, that many CUs (56/64) are unrealistic. Why even make so much bigger, more expensive chip in the first place just to underclock it to meet power and heat targets?

 

[SonGoku]

Did you even saw the TDP on that 40CU 5700XT? 180w! Unless they significantly underclock, that many CUs (56/64) are unrealistic. Why even make so much bigger, more expensive chip in the first place just to underclock it to meet power and heat targets?

uhm that's precicely my point! The 5700XT is clocked way too high

A 56-64 CU chip can achieve far greater perf/watt with lower clocks and voltage. Which is king for consoles
72CU APU = 399.1 mm2
64CU APU = 385.6 mm2

Bolded imo is the perf/buck sweetspot

For reference
The RTX 2060 is 445mm2 $349 with Nvidia's high profits
Launch PS4 roughly 350 mm2 at $399

400mm2 doesn't seem so outlandish to think considering it can be quickly shrunk to 340mm2 when 6nm is available.
The other possibility is next gen consoles going with 7nm EUV from the start

 

[SpinningBirdKick]

Neo-NeoGAF has much thicker skin, so feel free to bash users with your controversial opinion.
And welcome back!

Welcome
Im a fan of your hornest kicking abilities

Thanks both.

I know you were kicking around the chiplet theory a few pages back and I've got a bit more to add...

Firstly, I don't think PS5 is using chiplet(s). It makes much more sense for them to use a monolith. For a couple of reasons. PS5 is primarily concerned with performance. Monolithic dies are more performant because information has to travel a shorter distance to it's destination. Sony do not have to worry about a second SKU to use the less performing chips. They just need to maximise yields. They can do this by disabling a single CU in each shader engine. eg. 64 CUs on die, 8 shader engines (SE), 1 CU disabled per SE, 56 CUs active. Seems to do the job, right? If a defect exists on another part of the die, it's dead throw it anyway. It doesn't matter.

Secondly, MS have widely telegraphed that they will be using this tech in 2 SKUs and data centers. Here it makes sense to bin the chips according to performance. For example if only CUs are defective. Use the die in Lockhart or in the cloud. Keep the premium chips for top of the line Anaconda. It also means that you don't need a huge die but instead chunk together several much smaller chiplets with much higher yields. CPU, GPU etc.

I think the current song and dance about how big the scarlett die rendered in the reveal video is misdirection horseshit. It's a fucking chiplet implementation. It is AMD's M.O. that MS have adopted.

What people are forgetting about MS is that somehow they've got to shoehorn FP64, rt and possibly tensor cores (ML cores) in there too. It makes much more sense for at least some of these to be chiplet based. Compromising that amount of space in a monolithic die would be suicide. Especially when up against Sony which are using the monolith solely for gaming. So you're either losing out on CUs, shaders, cache etc. something has got to give = performance gap.

RT has to go in the gpu, it doesn't work as a chiplet. So I believe that MS are waiting on the RDNA 2.0 which includes AMD's solution to RT. Sony has no reason to wait for AMD RT. What do they gain? A directX friendly RT solution. Not much use in a Sony console, is it? So Sony have hand rolled their own solution and this is why MS are on edge. They don't know what else has been baked in there along with RT. This is why they're trying to portray the monster die scenario.

The chiplet approach also goes a good way to explaining the performance deficit of Anaconda vs PS5. Which I'll expand on later.

 

[Negotiator]

I want Holywood blockbusters, not cableTV

What makes you think Gears 5 or Halo Infinite won't be Hollywood-style AAA blockbusters?

What MS wants is to inject Game Pass everywhere, including the PS5 if possible (Sony/MS have said they will cooperate on making common dev tools), even if it's not profitable right now (spoiler alert: Netflix is a huge loss leader as well).

I think it's fair to say that getting up to 3 years of Game Pass Ultimate for just $1 (way below cost, MS is subsidizing publishers/devs like a mofo) is honestly too good to pass up.

Remember PS+ back in 2012? It's even better than that. People like getting tons of games for a low price, whether it's the good ol' PS+ or the current Game Pass scheme.

Will Game Pass be that good in 5+ years from now? Honestly, I doubt it. Why? Because if MS becomes the market leader next-gen, you should definitely expect cutbacks and price increases (just look at current PS+, it's a shell of its former self).

The best thing to do is stack 3 years until mid-2022 and enjoy the golden era (it's always the underdog that offers that, never the market leader) while it lasts, because sadly nothing lasts forever.

There's also this (food for thought/possible future monopoly):

Remember: Microsoft is a company with a 1 trillion $$$ market cap that had spent 1 billion $$$ to save the XBOX brand back in the 360 era from the RROD debacle.

Do you think they would hesitate burning a few million dollars to subsidize publishers/game devs? Hell, Epic Games does the same with their Fortnite money to secure exclusivities and they give you free games (guess who pays for them? Yeap, you can thank Fortnite kids).

I think it's good to examine all sides equally and fair.

 

[TeamGhobad]

whats this talk about 6nm being an easy jump for console apus?

 

[MadAnon]

uhm that's precicely my point! The 5700XT is clocked way too high
A 56-64 CU chip can achieve far greater perf/watt with lower clocks and voltage. Which is king for consoles

So again, they produce a chip which is almost twice the size of 5700XT - much more expensive, just to disable 12% of CUs, underclock it to achieve better perf/watt? Where's the price in your equation!?

 

[Imtjnotu]

whats this talk about 6nm being an easy jump for console apus?

TSMC: Most 7nm Clients Will Transition to 6nm

www.anandtech.com

The move from 7nm to 6nm is seemless and easy.

 

[TeamGhobad]

TSMC: Most 7nm Clients Will Transition to 6nm

www.anandtech.com

The move from 7nm to 6nm is seemless and easy.

so these consoles can and most likely will be 6nm. interesting. i think 12tflops is back on the menu boys.

 

[MadAnon]

Thanks both.


What people are forgetting about MS is that somehow they've got to shoehorn FP64, rt and possibly tensor cores (ML cores) in there too. It makes much more sense for at least some of these to be chiplet based. Compromising that amount of space in a monolithic die would be suicide. Especially when up against Sony which are using the monolith solely for gaming. So you're either losing out on CUs, shaders, cache etc. something has got to give = performance gap.

Ehmmm.... there will be not that many CUs!?

 

[CyberPanda]

Ehmmm.... there will be not that many CUs.

Let them dream.

 

[SonGoku]

So again, they produce a chip which is almost twice the size of 5700XT - much more expensive, just to disable 12% of CUs, underclock it to achieve better perf/watt? Where's the price in your equation!?

I edited my post:

72CU APU = 399.1 mm2
64CU APU = 385.6 mm2

Bolded imo is the perf/buck sweetspot

For reference
The RTX 2060 is 445mm2 $349 with Nvidia's high profits
Launch PS4 roughly 350 mm2 at $399

56CUs at 1500-1600Mhz = 10.7-11.4TF
64CUs at 1500-1600Mhz = 12.2-13.1TF

Ehmmm.... there will be not that many CUs!?

You can bookmark my post consoles won't be smaller than 56CUs enabled

so these consoles can and most likely will be 6nm. interesting. i think 12tflops is back on the menu boys.

The big advantage is you can shrink your vanilla 7nm design to 6nm with little retooling/investment
So say Sony uses a 400mm2 SoC on late 2020 they can shrink to 340mm2 in 2021 for cost reductions