CosmicQueso
Member
That's what Destination PlayStation is for now. Too bad they don't stream that, you'd have a field day.
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NPD Sales Results for May 2015
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
That's what Destination PlayStation is for now. Too bad they don't stream that, you'd have a field day.
sjagolinzer
Member
I think Microsoft will ride this out through halo 5s release and then depending on how it performs adjust their black friday sales depending on what they feel they need to do. Almost pulled the trigger on that target deal so if they have a really good black friday deal this year I might. But I'd want 250 plus some pack ins.
Dyson Industries
Banned
Holding a firesale every year to keep from being swamped (worldwide or UK/USA) isn't sustainable. This gen is set, the only variable is how large the gap grows.
You people are horrible! haha
Yeh... I know. The market has still contracted though. Anyone who says otherwise is delusional.
Well we'll probably see some holiday deal.
But honestly just buy whichever sku appeals to you more and make sure that you're buying it for games that are out and that you'll play. Otherwise you'll be waiting forever
Shame none of the information is made public.
You need to define the market though, because if we include PC (as many third party games do nowadays) then digital will significantly affect sales. For example, this month's top selling game The Witcher 3, 590k on Steam (27.56% of which in the US), and it's not even a Steamworks game, so that's missing digital sales from other vendors. Now include console digital and we're missing a massive amount of sales from the number one game this month. I really don't think that the limited retail sales data that we get is enough to conclude that the market as a whole is contracting. Of course, the limited digital sales data that we get is not enough to conclude that the market is expanding either. We don't really have the data to conclude either way, so I'd call it more ignorance than delusion to say with certainty either way.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
I think Destiny DLC mainly appeals to the hardcore players. Although they have dropped the price of the base game to $20 so that will cause a spike itself.
The Grim Reaper
Banned
There are loads of private sales figures revealed at industry conferences.
It's been that way for decades, even back when it was considered the toy industry.
Does it really matter if PC/Steam is picking up the slack though? Still, the post you responded to was about digital software, and it was the following quote which I think requires defining.
Which other things apart from (hardware?) units sold are you referring to define the market as contracting?
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
Does the trend of poor hardware and software sales in the US mean the territory is finally starting to slip from its perch as the most important market?
I hope for this to be true dearly. This might translate to more original AAA titles other than just shooters.
I hope for this to be true dearly. This might translate to more original AAA titles other than just shooters.
Software & Hardware
Both units and revenue.
I'm talking about the home console market size. Thats pretty much what all.my posts have been about. I'm not saying the console market is dead, just that its declined since 2008 and the overall market size has contracted.
Well sure, just wish there was more data to go on haha.
The Grim Reaper
Banned
USA Physical Retail is indeed often an inadequate measure of sales success, because in many instances digital DLC, digital sell-through, and/or European sell-through could be more important metrics to the publisher.
Look at Project Cars, for example. USA physical retail sales are very disappointing, but it's much stronger in Europe. And I don't think the developers were even aiming for significant USA physical retail success in the first place, given the state of the USA racing market.
However, it's not even close to a new phenomenon. It's been getting worse the last couple of years at least, though.
This May isn't too out-of-the-ordinary. It's worse than last May for sure, but May is in general a slow retail month. So the declines aren't too dramatic.
Just in case you had any misconceptions that this was a new phenomenon.
More like a 30-year-old phenomenon.
Worldwide or USA?
There is a graph that shows the amount on the previous page.
Was thinking US first and foremost - but WW would be cool too!
Thanks in advance anyway if you are able to do it! It's 02:30 am where I am, and sleep is pulling at me...
CosmicQueso
Member
So you've been paying no attention at all to the market over the last 3 years. Got it.
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
MGS5, Batman and Star Wars: BF will help PS4 stretch the lead to over 1 million when all is said and done after December this year I can confidently predict. This is because I think PS4 is going to be $299 (XB1 will be too) for the Holiday period.
Was thinking US first and foremost - but WW would be cool too!
Thanks in advance anyway if you are able to do it! It's 02:30 am where I am, and sleep is pulling at me...
Well it's 1:30am where I am so can't be bothered to open Excel. Hope you don't mind if I just type out the current market share.
As of May 2015 the market share for units sold to end users in the USA is as follows-
PS4: ~41%
One: ~38%
WiU: ~21%
As of March 2015 the market share for units shipped worldwide is as follows-
PS4: ~50%
One: ~29%
WiU: ~21%
Numbers are rounded and may be slightly off. But basically the PS4 is set to grow its market share worldwide and in the US as well.
The Grim Reaper
Banned
Is this your estimate? Or did Microsoft delineate shipped Xbox Ones from total Xbox consoles and I haven't seen it yet?
Estimate, sorry should clarify.
It's based off projected trends, market research reports, reported sell through figures and calculated shipments using data from Microsoft.
As of March I believe approximately 45 million consoles had been sold in worldwide across Wii U, PS4 and Xbox One.
Mister Megative
Banned
Why is this thread so dead...?
It's in the OP. Unless you mean actual numbers?
Boring month.
Europe is already the most important territory. It has overtaken NA. The US is a big place though, it certainly isn't poor hardware/software sales.
Mister Megative
Banned
Imru al-Qays;167685058 said:
Depends on how you view it. If you're looking at it as PS4+X1+Wii U, then yes, gen 8 isn't matching or surpassing gen 7. But looking at it as PS4+X1, it's currently far outperforming gen 7. The key, as Zhuge and others have intimated, is whether it continues to grow or merely stays stable over the next 5-6 years. I personally think PS4 will surpass the PS3, and X1 will fall short of the 360. But hey, we'll see. In the meantime we'll all have a lot of fun
The Grim Reaper
Banned
The exception here is the perennial old guard who still lean heavily on USA physical retail, like Madden.
Well yes, the console hardware unit market has declined since 2008 when Wii was booming, and in terms of gen six it has declined too if you include Dreamcast. Although I suspect that the US decline over gen six is offset by an increase in other western countries. However, revenue is so much harder to quantify in the digital era. Xbox live, PS Plus, PS Now, EA Access, DLC. None of that (outside of physical vouchers) is taken into account in NPD's retail revenue figures. Just look at EA's financials to see how much digital revenue has exploded since 2008.
Still, looking at the big picture, does a declining US dedicated home console (quite a few qualifiers there) market really matter to western publishers when PC is going from strength to strength (nearly 10 million concurrent users on Steam recently), and the non-US western market seems to be on the up. In fact, even Japanese console publishers who really do have an issue with a declining domestic market are releasing more and more games on Steam as they start to see success on that platform. I'm also sure that a better performing PS4 in an overall declining US market is preferable to them than the situation last gen where many Japanese games were on the worse selling PS3.
I don't think that we can look at home consoles in a bubble and ignore PC whilst they share so many of the same games nowadays.
Right, for some perspective Project Cars sold more in France in May at retail than in the US, but that's very much a genre specific issue. We've also seen surveys where console digital is quite a bit stronger in US than EU, and of course EU isn't really one market, with different distributors, localisations, and marketing often required for each country, along with different consumer preferences. Revenue from digital, DLC etc can be taken into account by looking at regional breakdowns in publishers financials. There's a slight drift in Western publisher's regional market share from US to EU over the last few years, but when you consider each EU market individually then US is still by far the largest market. It does very much vary on the genres publishers are strongest in. Take2 and Activision lean towards US, Ubisoft towards EU, with EA being fairly evenly split (FIFA helps with that).
There is one extreme end of this discussion where people suggest that the end of consoles are nigh and everything is dying soon. This really isn't supported by the evidence, and I find many of the people who are most adamant about this idea are ideologically motivated. They may be Nintendo fans (Based on post history here) who are unhappy with how this generation has gone, or PC fans who just want consoles to go away. Either way, it's something they are not just suggesting will happen, but often seem eager for. I am not the first to make this observation.
Conversely, however, I find that there are people on the other extreme who like to suggest that nothing is wrong. They will often argue the Wii is a "fad," with the implication being that it was just some anomaly which can be safely ignored, and when you do just ignore it, then consoles are fine. I find these people are frequently motivated (again, based on posting history) by the opposite ideological agenda: they are particularly tied to the traditional console ecosystem and don't want to hear that there are serious problems or issues with the market.
Just to restate my personal analysis here, it is this: the console market faces significant problems going forward. They've been bleeding market share to browers and PC and mobile for nearly a decade now, and that trend isn't abating. All the while, development costs continue to go up relentlessly. Despite these problems, however, there is a healthy market of dedicated console enthusiasts who are sustaining the market right now, and the contraction does not indicate some sort of catastrophic collapse in the forseeable future. In other words: there are serious problems, but not "consoles will be dead soon, this is the last generation, abandon ship" type problems.
Conversely, however, I find that there are people on the other extreme who like to suggest that nothing is wrong. They will often argue the Wii is a "fad," with the implication being that it was just some anomaly which can be safely ignored, and when you do just ignore it, then consoles are fine. I find these people are frequently motivated (again, based on posting history) by the opposite ideological agenda: they are particularly tied to the traditional console ecosystem and don't want to hear that there are serious problems or issues with the market.
Just to restate my personal analysis here, it is this: the console market faces significant problems going forward. They've been bleeding market share to browers and PC and mobile for nearly a decade now, and that trend isn't abating. All the while, development costs continue to go up relentlessly. Despite these problems, however, there is a healthy market of dedicated console enthusiasts who are sustaining the market right now, and the contraction does not indicate some sort of catastrophic collapse in the forseeable future. In other words: there are serious problems, but not "consoles will be dead soon, this is the last generation, abandon ship" type problems.
I don't think I meet your definition (strawman) of a doomsday prognosticator above, but I do think this industry is in for a reckoning in the next decade. I think the primary casualties will continue to be the front-line developers for a while - as it has been - but sooner or later, the big publishers are going to start showing cracks, and one or more of them will fall.
Much like 1983, however, a video game crash doesn't mean the end of video games; it just means a transfer of how they are consumed. The current AAA model is unsustainable, and there will be casualties.
Chezzymann
Member
I think consoles are going the route of high end cameras: They will still be around for a long time, but primarily for only an enthusiast audience
shinra-bansho
Member
While I largely agree with your assessment, and I'm sure we've discussed at length ad nauseum already, I don't think that segmentation distinguishing the audience that drove the growth experienced last generation is necessarily a bad thing, nor that it implies that everything is fine. The degree to which new vehicles can serve as substitutes is dependent upon particular segment needs.
I think there's no disputing a significant contraction has already been experienced, which while not a good thing, does not necessarily signal the prognosis of the market as it stands. The question is more now, how stagnant or low is growth are segments in the remaining dedicated space? How will technology continue to substitute and disrupt?
I would imagine the sales we see now have crossed the metaphorical chasm. But a lot remains to be seen as to how substantial a mainstream market for [home] consoles persists.
I think there's no disputing a significant contraction has already been experienced, which while not a good thing, does not necessarily signal the prognosis of the market as it stands. The question is more now, how stagnant or low is growth are segments in the remaining dedicated space? How will technology continue to substitute and disrupt?
I would imagine the sales we see now have crossed the metaphorical chasm. But a lot remains to be seen as to how substantial a mainstream market for [home] consoles persists.
Most of the large publishers have successfully diversified into mobile and PC. I don't think we'll see a reckoning among the large publishers. The first parties may feel the pain, but I don't think EA, for example, will be at serious risk.
I think it's likely SCE starts mobile development in the next 3 years to capitalize on the Japnaese market.
The Grim Reaper
Banned
Your points are all valid, but they don't specifically combat my point that "USA Physical Retail" (i.e. the defacto assumption in these types of threads) has been increasingly de-emphasized among the major publishers.
I was speaking in general terms of a migration away from USA Physical Retail in the last few years, which is represented through increasing disparities in terms of revenue / profit. Where the publishers are increasingly targeting depends on their unique circumstances.
So, USA Physical Retail is no longer the center of attention in many situations.
EA is getting about 20% of their revenue from Mobile currently, so while it's true that this (with some significant growth) may be enough to sustain them as some sort of company, it would be a complete disaster for the console industry if they retreated to the mobile space.
Much in the way that Atari is still a company that exists in some capacity, I don't necessarily see a publisher going down the drain to mean that they cease to exist entirely in the way that THQ did, so much as them ceasing to be a driver in the console space.
Also, I don't have EA at or near the top of my most likely big publishers to die, for what it's worth.
I think the notion that contraction happened and has stopped or finished or completed is not realistic.
I think it's still ongoing -- it's just very difficult to tell how ongoing it is while it's happening, and separate the noise of a new console cycle from the signal of the contraction.
I'm not so sure. 20% right now would not sustain the company at its current size, but by the time they would need to rely on mobile (5-7 years I'd figure), it would be a larger and probably much higher margin piece of the company. Not just mobile, of course, but all non-packaged retail titles in general. They can keep their few big console franchises and just pump out high margin DLC.
EA/Activision/Poobisoft have spent millions of dollars forcing everybody else out of the industry over the last few years, but EA in general I feel is at least ready for the future. I know you said you think EA is not at the top of your list for publishers in danger, but I think most publishers will eventually move to their model.
Yeah, that's probably true. But I don't know if it's necessarily a bad thing if some company ditched consoles...they kinda turdy poo sometimes.
EA/Activision/Poobisoft have spent millions of dollars forcing everybody else out of the industry over the last few years, but EA in general I feel is at least ready for the future. I know you said you think EA is not at the top of your list for publishers in danger, but I think most publishers will eventually move to their model.
Yeah, that's probably true. But I don't know if it's necessarily a bad thing if some company ditched consoles...they kinda turdy poo sometimes.
shinra-bansho
Member
Yes, I didn't mean to imply that contraction has necessarily ceased or cannot and is not occurring among other segments - this is something that both remains to be observed and is difficult to gauge given the stage of the cycle. More that the major and most apparent contraction that has occurred cycle-to-cycle does not necessarily provide much insight into how other segments will and are reacting to the changes in the environment, be they the mobile disruption, reduced releases and consolidation in both brand and genre, PC substitution, alternative entertainment forms and so on.
CosmicQueso
Member
The "reckoning" already occurred, and the AAA market that was unsustainable has already collapsed. What remains is what we'll have for a while. A handful of surviving publishers publishing a very small number of AAA titles.
You can see this in both release count of AAA as well as publisher count of AAA games. Both are now fairly stable when compared to the freefall collapse between 2009 and 2013.
Right... but how substantial a mainstream market exists will be determined partially by how many titles are being published for those Consoles. Are current output levels of Console focused titles enough to sustain the current HW sales of PS4 and Xone?
Content is king. Right now, the Console market is lacking Content. Without compelling mass market friendly content, the mainstream will stay away.
I agree to some extent, but I expect it to get worse, rather than better or even the same for this particular segment. THQ is gone. Konami may as well be, Capcom isn't far behind them, and Sega isn't exactly in great shape.
This "drawing down to the the aces" we're seeing is only going to last as long as those aces keep producing. Once one of them loses mindshare, it's curtains for the company who didn't invest enough in searching for the next ace.
CosmicQueso
Member
I think it would be helpful to define the time horizons we're talking about.
In June 2015, to 3rd party publishers, 2 platforms in the Packaged Goods market matter: PS4 and Xbox One. Everything else is periphery at best, completely ignored at worst.
The dedicated handheld market for 3rd party publishers couldn't be more extinct when you look at release count. The PS3 and Xbox 360 are getting the last gasps of support, and sales are fairly dismal.
So what else is left to contract significantly in this market today? Not much.
Now, if MS decides to not make a next generation Console, then we really have contraction. However, this could be offset if Nintendo finds secret sauce and hits a homerun with the NX. How likely is that? Who knows.
So I'd very much disagree that one of the remaining big publishers will fold on their own. If anything, EA could very much be bought by Disney (probably dependent to some extent on how the Star Wars games do), or some other big media conglomerate M&A activity. Or, one of the big publishers could just stop making Console games after diversifying enough in other markets. That's completely plausible. Or a 1st party could choose not to participate in a next generation. All of these are more likely causes of changes to the remaining big pubs than the now niche core gaming customer base becoming disinterested.
Maybe that's some you say tomato I say tomayto type stuff... but the data suggest that further contraction in this space could very much be supply, not demand, related.
May 2007
Wii 338.3K
PS2 187.8K
360 154.9K
PS3 81.6K
May 2008
Wii 675.1K
PS3 208.7K
360 186.6K
PS2 132.7K
May 2009
Wii 289.5K
360 175K
PS3 131K
PS2 117K
Without the Wii there's a significant contraction, with the Wii it's a massive contraction in the console market. I don't think anyone's suggesting there won't be another generation of consoles but there is likely to be further consolidation. This generation has had 3 premium priced consoles. Next-generation that is likely to consolidate down to two because Nintendo will probably go downmarket and aim for a mid tier console. It could even consolidate down to one if Microsoft choose to exit the market(more likely in gen 10).
Consolidation will also be likely for third parties. Maybe even mergers among the big publishers. If Activision don't think it's worth risking $500M for a new IP launch next gen and also have to kill some existing franchises then they may look to M&A for growth/profitability.
Wii 338.3K
PS2 187.8K
360 154.9K
PS3 81.6K
May 2008
Wii 675.1K
PS3 208.7K
360 186.6K
PS2 132.7K
May 2009
Wii 289.5K
360 175K
PS3 131K
PS2 117K
Without the Wii there's a significant contraction, with the Wii it's a massive contraction in the console market. I don't think anyone's suggesting there won't be another generation of consoles but there is likely to be further consolidation. This generation has had 3 premium priced consoles. Next-generation that is likely to consolidate down to two because Nintendo will probably go downmarket and aim for a mid tier console. It could even consolidate down to one if Microsoft choose to exit the market(more likely in gen 10).
Consolidation will also be likely for third parties. Maybe even mergers among the big publishers. If Activision don't think it's worth risking $500M for a new IP launch next gen and also have to kill some existing franchises then they may look to M&A for growth/profitability.
i'm still on the fence about the ps4 as a console to be honest. my computer is a macbook pro from 2008 so oculus is out of the running too. at least as of now.
Imru al-Qays
Banned
Only because console sales are heavily skewed towards the holidays this generation. The entirety of the seventh generation's sales advantage comes from the Wii.
You say this like it would be unusual. The eighth generation was the first that Nintendo didn't significantly undercut the competition in terms of pricing since at least the N64.
It feels weird to read people stating the death of consoles considering how much joy they've brought me in the last twenty years.
But I agree that the cost of these AAA games are one of the reasons that could see it happen. It's inevitable when you read how much mobile games are making and it's no wonder everyone wants a slice of that pie.
It appears Sony is banking everything on VR and I really hope it happens for them, they deserve it.
The thought of my gaming fix being on my iPhone or needing an iPad makes me very sad indeed. It appears that Apple can do no wrong at the moment.
But I agree that the cost of these AAA games are one of the reasons that could see it happen. It's inevitable when you read how much mobile games are making and it's no wonder everyone wants a slice of that pie.
It appears Sony is banking everything on VR and I really hope it happens for them, they deserve it.
The thought of my gaming fix being on my iPhone or needing an iPad makes me very sad indeed. It appears that Apple can do no wrong at the moment.
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
I truly believe now that there won't be another Xbox home console. They're until now hardly making any money from their current product but most importantly, this gen has crystalized the prediction that the 'battle for the living room' using a home console as a Trojan Horse is a completely futile venture. Next gen MS are likely to focus on their cloud-based content when it comes to gaming as well as DX12/13 titles for PC.
Sony is a little different as the market has shown them that they can make a handsome amount of revenue from home consoles. Unlike over at MS, Sony has actually made Playstation and gaming one of the key pillars of their whole company. Now that is not to say that next gen they won't focus on VR or Cloud-based gaming, just that they'll be far more reluctant to abandon traditional home consoles compared to MS.
You see it growing in the US too? Morpheus? Or price drop? Or something else?
Compared too X1 only it must have been shrinking for a while?
It is now ~52/48.
Last time the gap was ~800k (July/Aug 2014) it was ~55/45.
It has definitely gone slightly down for the last two months.
I guess it doesn't really matter all that much anyway, and it is interesting first and foremost because it is the only place in the world where we have a "real battle" on our hands.
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